Would you rather keep a potential Top 10 WR or Top 20 RB?

[GiantsRule 0]

Long time no speak folks. Still swooning from that Giants victory and haven't had much time to peruse the boards.

 

Just wanted to get a consensus opinion on what you all would do in my situation (For the record, I've already made up my mind and I'm going with Young). While it applies directly to my circumstances, it may also be an issue for others ready to draft.

 

I'm in a one-keeper league where you're allowed to keep one player from last year's roster provided that player was not drafted in the 1st or 2nd rounds in 2007, and wasn't previously kept by another owner in 2007. I pick 6th. We have standard scoring with bonuses for distance TDs, but no PPR. Also, we can play a 2nd QB in the flex with 6 pts for all TDs so QBs are more valuable here than in most other leagues.

 

My roster is pretty pedestrian with only Greg Jennings, Donovan McNabb, Welker, and Young as keeper prospects. For months, I was going to keep Welker. Now, after learning who will be kept by other owners (AP, Lynch, MBIII, Turner, Grant, Fred Taylor), the remaining RBs are going to fly off the board and there's going to be tons of reaches (by proxy, LJ and Portis could be mid-1st round picks). While Welker is easily the most talented and will have a nice 100 rec/1200 yard/8 TD season, Young is more of a home run threat and obviously plays the more scarce fantasy position.

 

Looking at draft time: Young could end up a late 2nd/early 3rd round pick while Welker could go mid-3rd/early-4th. Quite possibly, I could keep Selvin and still get Welker later than if I did the opposite. Everybody overvalues running backs, and I got stuck with Travis Henry last year trying to crack the Shanahan thought process. But if I don't take a flyer on him, I could really end up with a laughable duo of backs. My thinking is that even with Young becoming a flop, I can take 2 backs in the first 2 rounds and at least have some depth.

 

What would you do in this spot? And for the board tattletalers and smartasses, let me save you some copy & paste trouble:

 

Team Management Questions Belong On The "A Little Help" board.

[Pimptaddy 0]

Welker

[Vikings4ever 496]

Generally, a top 20 back.

 

BUT I avoid the clusterfock known as the Denver backfield like the Lions avoid success.

 

I'd keep Welker (although I'm not super high on him either).

[9-Route 0]

i think welker offers significantly more certainty than selvin does. he won't post 112/1180/8 again, but he is solid for 85/1000/5.

 

selvin young may indeed play in the 'pedigree' run attack, where bumpkins, no-names, and non-1st rdrs become stars; but, he has not been getting the draft love lately. i think he will hold enough for you to reacquire him. the only thing he has shown is that he is a bursty galloper that can post a handful of nice games amidst another player [much like tatum bell showed prior to him.] that's not enough in the minds of ffers to warrant a 'next portis-esque' draft selection.

[pee-diddy 27]

Welker, for the fact that you pretty know much what you'll get numbers-wise in 2008. With Denver I just don't trust leatherface.