Concerned about 370 f/carries?

[karmarooster 0]

i haven't heard much talk about this but i was wondering if some of you would weigh in.

 

Last year Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner were the only RBs to go over the 370 f/carries threshold. here are their stats, including one playoff game each - which i'm assuming should be included since it adds to the wear and tear of the season.

 

AP - 393.5

Turner - 398.5

 

Those are both pretty well over the mark. However both of them are still fairly young with little wear on the tires... AP going into his third year, and Turner essentially going into his second year.

 

on the other hand, both of these guys had very few receptions on the year - 21 for peterson and 7 for turner - which makes it even worse. in carries ALONE, AP had 383 and turner had 395.

 

according to a Waldman article on FFToday, the most likely expected decrease in production is around 21-30%.

http://fftoday.com/articles/waldman/08_gc_rb_heavy.htm

 

assuming the 390ish carries drops by 21-30%, that would be 270-310 carries. if they maintain a 4.5-4.8 YPC, that's somewhere in the neighborhood of 1200-1500 yards. Not bad, but also not 1600-1700 like this year. of course the YPC could drop too... would anyone be surprised if turner averaged 4.0 YPC this year, and AP 4.2?

 

this is just looking at a decline in production, not to mention the increased risk of injury.

 

Results: both AP and Turner are late-first rounders in PPR scoring, mid-first rounders in standard scoring, somewhere 1.04-1.10.

 

anyone care to comment?

[t.j 35]

Only comment I would add is that the article is based on 370 f/carry regular seasons. Not including playoff games. Still, both guys were over 370 f/carries for the regular season. Expect both to decline. I think Peterson will still be a top 10 FF back next season, but likely not top 5. Turner will probably not be back in the top 10 IMO.

[Gepetto 1,318]

AD and Michael Turner were both on my team last year, and I expect more of the same from both. There current Average Draft Position is 1.01 and 1.02 - fantasyfootballcalculator.com

[karmarooster 0]

AD and Michael Turner were both on my team last year, and I expect more of the same from both. There current Average Draft Position is 1.01 and 1.02 - fantasyfootballcalculator.com

 

1.04 - 1.10 is just my opinion. simply because their ADP is 1.01 and 1.02 doesn't mean you should follow the average.

[Foghorn Leghorn 0]

Peterson's numbers in 2008 were 363-1760-10. To those who have voted "increase" for 2009, what do you think they'll increase to? There's not that much room for improvement here, except for maybe TDs....