draft strategy - my thoughts, let me have it

[whiteknight 0]

ok:

 

12 team ppr league. 6pts per passing TD, 1 pt for each receiving and rushing yards, everything basic same rules.

 

I know if I have one of the top 3 or 4 or even 5 draft positions, I get my elite back, but if I am towards the end of the draft, what do you all think of drafting wr-wr, then going RB and then either another Rb or QB (depending on how the draft unfolds)

 

with so many more RBBC, and we get 1 pt./rec., I am thinking I can balance my points with the guys who draft at the top of the draft instead of trying to play catch up. and although I don't think this years rookie RB's will be nearly as great as last year, but I think thre wil still be some really good value at RB in rounds 3-5 if I have the top 1,2, and/or 3 WR.

 

What do you guys think. I look forward to hearing your thoughts. leave your lin, i will return the favor.

thanks guys!

counting down the days!

[Ray_T 753]

ok:

 

12 team ppr league. 6pts per passing TD, 1 pt for each receiving and rushing yards, everything basic same rules.

 

I know if I have one of the top 3 or 4 or even 5 draft positions, I get my elite back, but if I am towards the end of the draft, what do you all think of drafting wr-wr, then going RB and then either another Rb or QB (depending on how the draft unfolds)

 

with so many more RBBC, and we get 1 pt./rec., I am thinking I can balance my points with the guys who draft at the top of the draft instead of trying to play catch up. and although I don't think this years rookie RB's will be nearly as great as last year, but I think thre wil still be some really good value at RB in rounds 3-5 if I have the top 1,2, and/or 3 WR.

 

What do you guys think. I look forward to hearing your thoughts. leave your lin, i will return the favor.

thanks guys!

counting down the days!

 

if you are in a PPR format, and drafting late, then this method is worth consideration.

 

of course, dont let yourself get pigeonholed. If a top 5 back were to drop to you at #8 or #9, I'd say you should still take him.... but yeah, your plan seems reasonable.

[whiteknight 0]

if you are in a PPR format, and drafting late, then this method is worth consideration.

 

of course, dont let yourself get pigeonholed. If a top 5 back were to drop to you at #8 or #9, I'd say you should still take him.... but yeah, your plan seems reasonable.

 

 

good point, I know there are so many scenarios that could play out, and I woul dnever let a top 5 back pass me by, but I guess I am playing devils advocate.

 

I just wasn't sure if anyone has tried this method before drafting from this position...

[Belushi 9]

This isn't exactly revolutionary. There's about 20 posts a year asking about going WR-WR in the first two rounds. If you're happy with a backfield of Kevin Smith and Darren McFadden, go for it.

[Ray_T 753]

good point, I know there are so many scenarios that could play out, and I woul dnever let a top 5 back pass me by, but I guess I am playing devils advocate.

 

I just wasn't sure if anyone has tried this method before drafting from this position...

 

I have seen the strategy done in my league a couple of times.

 

but we start 2 QB and 2 RB, and that format makes it tougher to do this.

 

the results in our league (at that time a 10 team league) was that the team was weaker than average at either RB or QB at the end (usually RB)

 

The strategy can work if you get a number of 2nd or 3rd teir RB's who you think have some good upside. Based on what I have seen this year, I'd say your chances of making this strategy work would be better than they have been over the last 3-4 years.

 

also, of all the RB's projected to have 'down years' I'd say that they cant all have a down year. some of them have to have a good year. You just have to figure that out.

 

so if you go with this strategy, do your homework on this years RB class. Research not only the RB himself, but his O-line and projected performance compared to last year.

 

ie. is the line old and in decline? or young and on the rise?

 

Look at additions and subtractions to the line and any coaching/scheme changes.

 

I find this seems to work well, because the line is 50% responsible for the end result in the running game. The coaches and their scheme is responsible for 20-30% and the RB himself for the rest. There are a handful of RB's who are so good that they will perform regardless of what the coach and the line do, but this is the exception and not the rule. (and players like this are usually not sleeper picks)

 

Case in point:

 

Houston last year: New coach (from Denver) Switched to a zone blocking scheme (which relies more on speed & technique and not power like a traditional scheme for top run teams) Their line was adequate at best, but the scheme improved the run game. also, they had a 3rd round pick (slaton) who was suited to such a scheme and had a really good camp, looked excellent, but fell just short of getting the starting job.

 

The starter was Ahman Green. Oft injured, and at the tail end of his career.

 

Slaton was the perfect Sleeper pick.

 

this is where research helps you out. Not many people had him on the radar, but there you are.

 

this is the research you need to do to uncover those late round gems.

[Dr. Octopus 0]

I just completed a recent mock and actually went WR-WR-WR and still ended up with a decent stable of backs. There's a risk for sure but if you get the right backs the rewards can be high. I do realize however that some people may not be as high on some of these RBs as I am.

 

QB Kurt Warner ARI 6.06

QB David Garrard JAC 10.06

RB Chris Wells ARI 4.06

RB Thomas Jones NYJ 5.07

RB Ray Rice BAL 7.07

RB Willis McGahee BAL 8.06

RB Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 9.07

WR Randy Moss NEP 1.07

WR Calvin Johnson DET 2.06

WR Dwayne Bowe KCC 3.07

WR Percy Harvin MIN 11.07

WR Steve Smith NYG 12.06

WR Patrick Crayton DAL 16.06

TE Jeremy Shockey NOS 14.06

PK Matt Bryant TBB 15.07

DT Chicago Bears CHI 13.07

[Ray_T 753]

I just completed a recent mock and actually went WR-WR-WR and still ended up with a decent stable of backs. There's a risk for sure but if you get the right backs the rewards can be high. I do realize however that some people may not be as high on some of these RBs as I am.

 

QB Kurt Warner ARI 6.06

QB David Garrard JAC 10.06

RB Chris Wells ARI 4.06

RB Thomas Jones NYJ 5.07

RB Ray Rice BAL 7.07

RB Willis McGahee BAL 8.06

RB Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 9.07

WR Randy Moss NEP 1.07

WR Calvin Johnson DET 2.06

WR Dwayne Bowe KCC 3.07

WR Percy Harvin MIN 11.07

WR Steve Smith NYG 12.06

WR Patrick Crayton DAL 16.06

TE Jeremy Shockey NOS 14.06

PK Matt Bryant TBB 15.07

DT Chicago Bears CHI 13.07

 

Nice draft.

 

This actually goes with something else I was going to say.

 

If you arent selecting top tier RB's early, I think it wise to select an extra RB or two in the later rounds in the hope of uncovering that Late round sleeper.

 

from the looks of your team you grabbed a few lowervalued players with high upside.

 

Jones is steady. May not produce like last year, but should be an adequate RB2

Wells is a gamble, but could be a #2 or low end #1 if all goes well for him.

 

 

Rice & McGahee: one of them will be the starter. Between the two of them, you have your RB1 there somewhere. It's just a question of who and when.

Bradshaw: could also put up #1 numbers if Jacobs gets hurt.

 

Your WR's are excellent

 

at QB you are fine with Warner, and Garrard is a steady, but unspectacular QB2.

 

There is a lot of upside here, and if more than 2 or 3 of your RB's pan out, you have trade bait if you need to upgrade yourself somewhere else.

[beefcurtain 1]

This isn't exactly revolutionary. There's about 20 posts a year asking about going WR-WR in the first two rounds. If you're happy with a backfield of Kevin Smith and Darren McFadden, go for it.

 

He never said it was revolutionary, just looking for some thoughts on the strategy.

 

If I took two WR's, say Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson, I would probably take RB with my next three, even four, picks, better chance that two of them work out. You can hold off a bit on the QB, especially in a 10-team league.

[thesitedoc 5]

My draft strategy has always been based on two simple points. Get the best player available at the time (considering my league requirements) AND always look to be starting the run.

 

At the end of the first round there will still be a couple of RB's who get the full load, and that same type fo RB will be there for you around the corner in about 3-4 more picks. So, why not get the first or second best WR or QB if you start two and grab the same kind of RB at the beginning of the 2nd round.

 

It's put people on notice that they need to start thinking about where to go with their next pick, WR or a lesser RB.

 

If you continually grab the dregs by adhering to a silly rule of always getting your RB's in the first two round then you can get stuck chasing the leaders by grab the 8,9,10 best WR, QB, TE, Def.

 

Well you get the point.

 

And more to that point, I am always the first one to grab the TE and Def in my league. Our league actually scores defenses pretty heavily by giving points for points allowed.

[whiteknight 0]

thesitedoc, although our league has been together with the same guys for years, it never fails, one can start a run, i.e. on TE's, def's (which our league scores heavily also), and even on QB's....so I know my questino is so subjective based on so many variables, I am just curious what others have seen with people going the WR-WR route if you were to draft towards the end of the first round, unless a workhorse #1 RB falls to me...

 

thanks ofr all the comments and insight guys!

[fantasymind 1]

I employed this strategy in a similar league to yours in '05 and '07...I won the league in '05 and finished 5th in '07...A buddy of mine in the league also attempted this in both '05 and '06 and didn't make the playoffs, so, it is certainly a crap shoot...Here are the keys, as I see them, to making this work:

 

*The two receivers you start off with need to be almost "un-bustable"--Meaning that you need to take whatever two guys you feel are extremely unlikely to drop off this coming season. Based on this, maybe a guy like Reggie Wayne is taken along with Fitz/Johnson as opposed to Calvin?

*You need to wait on QB and take at least one that has upside. There are alot of guys that will fall in drafts that end up producing top 8 numbers...A guy like Schaub paired with a more steady hand might be the way to go this year, for example.

*While waiting on Qb, don't be afraid to pass on RB (yet again) to take a third receiver that represents great value...If a guy like Colston or White are available in the 3rd, or guys like Bowe or Boldin are available in the 4th, then do not be afraid to grab them. Establishing dominance at the receiver position (especially in a ppr) can work.

*All of your Rbs, whether you start taking them in the 3rd or 4th round, should be high upside guys. By waiting this long on Rbs, you are basically guaranteeing a weaker than most corps of backs (on paper) at the start of the season. Accept that and don't fight it...Instead, try to fill your roster with guys that have the potential to take over jobs and produce in the weeks that matter most down the stretch. Guys like Kevin Smith or Ronnie Brown, any rookie Rb that you are high on during the preseason, underperformers last year with solid pedigrees (like McFadden, Mendenhall, Felix Jones etc.), unproven guys in new situations (Ward in TB) and anyone else that might represent good value and high upside should be taken. Avoid guys that might be starters in name but are almost sure to be mediocre (Fred Taylor, Julius Jones, etc.) and swing for the fences.

 

This is only my take and it certainly comes with some inherent risk...But, my philosophy each year is that winning the league is accomplished by "going where they ain't"....If everyone in your league is zigging, you should be zagging...Finding the accepted strategy of the majority and doing the opposite can result in some solid results, with good preparation and a little luck...Good luck if you try it~!

[beefcurtain 1]

Check out this Sports Illustrated solo mock draft. The writer takes Fitzgerald and Johnson with his first two picks.

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/fant...icks/index.html