NAn 39 Posted August 19, 2009 Just wanted to pass along to you guys. Back in ’04 I did research and analysis re: RBs and ‘heavy workloads’, which I have updated each season since. I played with several different standards and settled on the following: 1 carry = 1 carry & 1 rec = .5 carry. My thinking being receptions still account for ‘wear and tear’ but less so than carries where a RB is often tackled by several players, those players are often bigger, stronger as in DLs & LBs. I did research using this formula, which will be referred to as f/carries. I also played with a few benchmarks to define a ‘heavy workload’, and settled on 370 f/carries. The data netted 34 RBs who reached 370 f/carries a grand total of 48 times over past 30 years. Here is the research and analysis updated to include ’08 statistics. A look back at predictions I made prior to ’08 season, and a look ahead with predictions for ’09 season are in separate thread ‘entitiled ‘RBs With Heavy Workloads…Look Back At 08, Look Ahead To 09’. Games Missed For RBs Following A 370 F/Carry Season • 27 of 48 (56.3%) RBs missed at least 1 game • 14 of 48 (29.2%) RBs missed 1-3 games • 15 of 48 (31.3%) RBs missed 4+ games For comparison I looked at the top 30 FF RBs the past 10 years and found 108 RBs who missed at least one game. 30 RBs x 10yrs = 300 RBs 300 RBs / 108 RBs missed 1+ games = 36.0% In Plain English: Data suggests that RBs coming off a 370 season are more likely to miss time due to injury than a typical RB in a given year... 56.3% vs 36.0%. F/Carries For RBs Following A 370 F/Carry Season • 7 of 48 (14.4%) RBs met or increased in f/carries... o Avg Increase: +17.2 f/carries • 41 of 48 (86.6%) RBs decreased in f/carries… o RBs who missed any games - Avg Decrease: -95.3 f/carries o RBs who missed no games - Avg Decrease: -29.2 f/carries • 23 of 29 (79.3%) RBs who missed no games, decreased in f/carries the year after a 370 season. In Plain English: RBs coming off a 370 season have decreased in f/carries almost 9 out of 10 times whether they were injured during the season or not. FF Production Of RB Following A 370 F/Carry Season • 7 of 48 (14.6%) RBs met or increased FF production (300 FF pts = 2100yds/15tds) • 5 of 48 (10.4%) RBs decreased FF production by 1-10%… (10% decrease = 270 FF pts) • 2 of 48 (4.2%) RBs decreased FF production by 11-20%… (20% decrease = 240 pts) • 13 of 48 (27.1%) RBs decreased FF production by 21-30%… (30% decrease = 210 pts) • 6 of 48 (12.5%) RBs decreased FF production by 31-40%… (40% decrease = 180 pts) • 6 of 48 (12.5%) RBs decreased FF production by 41-50%… (50% decrease = 150 pts) • 9 of 48 (18.8%) RBs decreased FF production by 51%+ In Plain English: 12 of 48 (25.0%) met or slightly decreased (10% decrease or less) versus 36 of 48 (75.0%) RBs that decreased their ff production by 20% or more. Future Career FF Production Of A 370 F/Carry RB • 119 of 156/ (76.2%) RBs did not reach 200 FF pts • 20 of 156/ (12.8%) RBs reached 200-249 FF pts • 10 of 156/ (6.4%) RBs reached 250-299 FF pts • 4 of 156/ (2.7%) RBs reached 300-349 FF pts • 3 of 156/ (1.9%) RBs reached 350+ FF pts In Plain English: • Just 4.6% attained 300+ FF pts after their first 370 season. Emmitt Smith is responsible for three of those seven. • Just 7.7% attained 250-299 FF pts after their first 370 season. Seven of those ten came from three players, (Walter Payton 3, Curtis Martin 2, Eric Dickerson 2). • Just 11.0% ever scored 250 FF pts again rest of their careers. • Just 23.8% ever scored 200 FF pts again rest of their careers. • 76.2% never attained 200 FF pts again rest of their careers. Over the years I have received some similar feedback to the analysis. Here are my comments replying to likely more of the same this year: 370 was not an arbitrary number I settled on. When I tried other benchmarks, i.e. 350, 360, etc. much of the findings were inconclusive. The data was just as likely to discredit any conclusions as support them. At 370 though, data really started to ‘say something’. I’ve heard comments that to settle on a particular number for a particular season doesn’t make a whole lot of sense (which I respect and understand). Be more telling if analysis referenced a career f/carry benchmark (which I agree would be telling). Unfortunately, original data was lost a few CPUs ago, so cannot confirm any numbers re: that, but this is what I can say and remember about the data: In most cases, RBs who attained 370 f/carries did not do it right away in their careers. More often than not they ‘built up’ to that workload. Again, I don’t have actual numbers or can reference a particular career f/carry benchmark, but basically saying that in most cases can assume a relatively high career workload prior to a 370 f/carry season. To further support that premise (vague thought it may be), as you read through note that RBs who were able to have multiple 370+ seasons and/or highly productive seasons after a 370 season did so early in their respective careers. I’ve also heard ‘well this is common sense…of course if a RB has a huge workload one year, he won’t meet the touches and/or production again’. Which is true. But let’s face it, we FFers don’t always deal in common sense. B/c though that’s logical, the next season, many of us often ignore that ‘common sense’ and just put those RBs with heavy workloads right at the top of our draft boards. Lastly, by no means am I saying this analysis is ‘ironclad’. I do feel it is telling, but I would consider it just another factor to consider when evaluating RBs and making projections/rankings, such as: SOS, surrounding talent, offensive scheme/philosophy, coaching, team, etc. Many of us FFers consider all of these factors, or discount some, or weigh particular ones more and others less. I would consider this no different; just another factor to consider or not. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NAn 39 Posted August 19, 2009 no one wants to rip my research or takes? you guys are getting soft in your old age. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,179 Posted August 20, 2009 meh. I draft with my gut feelings. I do buy into 370 carries being something to consider but I think there are other factors to take into account. someone like Michael Turner doesn't bother me because of his light career workload. If he has another 350 or so this year I may be concerned for 2010 but I don't think 1 year of 370 should hurt him too much. Backs who have say 300, 310, 330, 370.... now that would worry me... more so because of the extreme career workload than the single 370 season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
