***Official Week 10 NFL Gambling Thread***

[swirvenirvin 25]

Thursday Night Football

 

System 15-17-2 -4.03

Props 58-24-1 28.72

Non System posted 4-6 -3.14

Total 77-59-3 21.55

 

Not in love with it, but like it enough for some action tonight

 

Anquan Boldin (Ravens) Total Receiving Yards - Must Play

Over 70.5 (-115)

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Glad to see you're on the ball swirvenirven with the Thursday night football.

 

I've got a 2 team parlay for tonight.

 

Miami Heat -310 & Atlanta -1

 

 

I think Atlanta is comfortable on their home field. For another team to come into Atlanta and beat the Falcons there, will take a very well played game. I don't see it in the cards for the Ravens. Sure they beat the Jets in New York in week one, but Sanchez really wasn't passing the ball down field at that time and was just ultra conservative. And sure, the Ravens beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh. But that was with out Big Ben at QB.

 

Go Atlanta

[bjsteel 34]

Glad to see you're on the ball swirvenirven with the Thursday night football.

 

I've got a 2 team parlay for tonight.

 

Miami Heat -310 & Atlanta -1

 

 

I think Atlanta is comfortable on their home field. For another team to come into Atlanta and beat the Falcons there, will take a very well played game. I don't see it in the cards for the Ravens. Sure they beat the Jets in New York in week one, but Sanchez really wasn't passing the ball down field at that time and was just ultra conservative. And sure, the Ravens beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh. But that was with out Big Ben at QB.

 

Go Atlanta

 

The great Tamps Bay Bucs should have beat Atlanta last week, in Atlanta...just sayin'!

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

The great Tamps Bay Bucs should have beat Atlanta last week, in Atlanta...just sayin'!

Tampa Bay broke the 8.5 spread last week in Atlanta, yes. Atlanta won the game by 6. But at no time was the outright outcome of the game in question as Atlanta led the game wire to wire. It wasn't quite the domination I expected as I thought Atlanta would've covered the -8.5, but at no point was Atlanta ever losing or ever in trouble of losing.

 

Atlanta -1 tonight

[swirvenirvin 25]

Tampa Bay broke the 8.5 spread last week in Atlanta, yes. Atlanta won the game by 6. But at no time was the outright outcome of the game in question as Atlanta led the game wire to wire. It wasn't quite the domination I expected as I thought Atlanta would've covered the -8.5, but at no point was Atlanta ever losing or ever in trouble of losing.

 

Atlanta -1 tonight

I could have sworn blount got stopped twice at the goaline with about 2 minutes left, if he scored bucs would have went ahead

[swirvenirvin 25]

Couple more games to look at will do tomorrow morning.

 

Jon Kitna (Cowboys) Total Completions - Must Play

Under 21.5 (even)Winner

 

Mike Williams (Seahawks) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 4 (+110)Winner

 

This play is a hunch on coach speak, everyone saying Greene is going to start splitting with LT now, if he gets 15 carries this should hit

Shonn Greene (Jets) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play

Over 45.5 (-115)Winner

 

Matt Forte (Bears) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 3 (-130)Loser

 

Jay Cutler (Bears) Total Passing Yards - Must Play

Under 257.5 (-115)Winner

 

Maurice Jones-Drew (Jaguars) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 2 (-140)Push

 

Cedric Benson (Bengals) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play)

Over 77.5 (-115)Loser sucks hurt

 

Added

 

Dwayne Bowe (Chiefs) Total Receiving Yards - Must Play

Under 60.5 (-115)Loser

 

Brandon Marshall (Dolphins) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 5 (-115)Loser 2 dead QB's

[deejsixer 0]

How about Houston at Jax getting a point. I love it.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

I could have sworn blount got stopped twice at the goaline with about 2 minutes left, if he scored bucs would have went ahead

Very true. I guess I felt that Atlanta would still have 2 minutes and 30 seconds to get the game winning field goal even if Blount put it in from the 2 yard line. So, if Blount put the ball in the endzone and the Tampa Bay defense was able to hold the Atlanta offense for 2 minutes and 30 seconds, then yes, Atlanta would've lost.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

How about Houston at Jax getting a point. I love it.

I agree, but don't love it. Houston has been beaten by the likes of Dallas this year on their home field.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

I'm winning my yahoo pick'em league.

 

Here is my current order of confidence on the games:

Atlanta -1, 14 points (already won!)

Jets -3, 13 points

Miami +1, 12 points

New England +4.5, 11 points

San Fransico -6, 10 points

Cincinatti +7, 9 points

Giants -14, 8 points

Minnesota -1, 7 points

Tampa Bay -6.5, 6 points

Denver +1, 5 points

Houston +2, 4 points

Philadelphia -3, 3 points

Buffalo -3, 2 points

Seattle +3, 1 point

 

The first number you see listed is the final yahoo point spread for week 10 in the pick'em league I'm in. The second number is the amount of confidence points I have in the listed team winning.

 

We have 7 participants, I've won 2 weeks out of 9 so far, my total points is 550 right now which leads the league. My win loss record is 73-52. The way pushes are treated, is that you lose all your points on that game.

 

I am constantly changing my views based on information that I value or devalue.

 

So I'm trying to get a bet together based on the noon games first. I generally bet parlays.

[swirvenirvin 25]

Added two more props, also checked on the one's I made last night a few are off (Jones-Drew), and a few went in our favor, Benson up to 83 yards, Cutler down to 253, Mike Williams -105, Forte -145 now, and Green up to 48.5

[swirvenirvin 25]

Stupid ass system plays that are killing me

 

Jaguars(Jacksonville) -1.5 (-105)Winner

Seahawks(Seattle) +3 (+105)

Panthers(Carolina) +7 (-105)Loser

Redskins(Washington) +3 (even)

Broncos(Denver) +1 (-105)Winner

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

I like the fact that Swirven likes Benson to have a good day and Greene to have a good day. Since I I like the Bengals and the Jets. It's just getting close to betting time, and I'm deciding whether to go more conservative or more aggressive.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Sheesh! I decided to go aggresive. If I win, it's exciting. If I lose, it'll confirm what already looks like a really stupid bet.

 

4 team parlay:

 

Bengals +250 LOSER

Dolphins Even

Jets -180

Buccaneers -320

 

 

Need some luck here, but let's go!

 

 

I got way to aggressive thinking Cinci could actually win the game straight up. Live and learn I guess.

[PackYourNut 47]

Sheesh! I decided to go aggresive. If I win, it's exciting. If I lose, it'll confirm what already looks like a really stupid bet.

 

4 team parlay:

 

Bengals +250

Dolphins Even

Jets -180

Buccaneers -320

 

 

Need some luck here, but let's go!

 

Cleveland wins straight up today!

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Cleveland wins straight up today!

I thought Cleveland caught New Orleans when the Saints weren't clicking really well and no Reggie Bush in the lineup. Then I thought the Patriots were looking ahead to their Pittsburgh matchup this week and because of that the Pats lost to Cleveland. I know those are very degenerate views but that's part of the reason I've got the Jets beating Cleveland today.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Ok, another parlay being played here:

 

2 team parlay:

 

Jets -190 WINNER

Hawks -700(NBA) WINNER

 

 

I need this one.

Well, I survived this game. Looking for something in the Sunday night game or 2nd half late afternoon games now.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Taking a 2nd half bet here:

 

SanFransisco -3.5 (2nd half) LOSER

 

 

Since they're tied at 10 at the half it means SanFran will have to win this game by 4 or more for me.

 

I'm also looking to make a play on the Sunday night game.

[swirvenirvin 25]

Couple more games to look at will do tomorrow morning.

 

Jon Kitna (Cowboys) Total Completions - Must Play

Under 21.5 (even)Winner

 

Mike Williams (Seahawks) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 4 (+110)Winner

 

This play is a hunch on coach speak, everyone saying Greene is going to start splitting with LT now, if he gets 15 carries this should hit

Shonn Greene (Jets) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play

Over 45.5 (-115)Winner

 

Matt Forte (Bears) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 3 (-130)Loser

 

Jay Cutler (Bears) Total Passing Yards - Must Play

Under 257.5 (-115)Winner

 

Maurice Jones-Drew (Jaguars) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 2 (-140)Push

 

Cedric Benson (Bengals) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play)

Over 77.5 (-115)Loser sucks hurt

 

Added

 

Dwayne Bowe (Chiefs) Total Receiving Yards - Must Play

Under 60.5 (-115)Loser

 

Brandon Marshall (Dolphins) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 5 (-115)Loser 2 dead QB's

 

Assuming the Kitna bet holds up, 4-4-1 -.16 units, I think it's the first losing week.

[tikigods 76]

I had Chicago +1, Miami PK, and TB -7. Each for 125.

 

I have Philly tomorrow -2.5 for three units.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Assuming the Kitna bet holds up, 4-4-1 -.16 units, I think it's the first losing week.

 

That's not bad. Basically you broke even. Maybe you can put a little wager on tonight's game to get you in the winners' column for the week.

 

New England is getting 4.5 and the total moved from 44 to 44.5.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

I had Chicago +1, Miami PK, and TB -7. Each for 125.

 

I have Philly tomorrow -2.5 for three units.

 

Not bad. And I like the Philly -2.5.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

My Sunday night play is a 2 team parlay:

 

New England +175 WINNER

Over 42(bought 3 points) WINNER

 

 

Ahead for the week, and ready for Monday night action.

[bjsteel 34]

Since when are football "game of the week" night games so boring???? No bombs, no nothing, just dink and dunk, hand off, punt...what a joke these games have become.

[swirvenirvin 25]

That's not bad. Basically you broke even. Maybe you can put a little wager on tonight's game to get you in the winners' column for the week.

 

New England is getting 4.5 and the total moved from 44 to 44.5.

The one I was thinking about was Brady over 22.5 completions, looks like that would have been a lock. I still haven't looked at the MNF props yet

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Moving on to Monday night:

 

Basic information is Philly -3.5, -190

or Washington +3.5, +165

total is at 43

Michael Vick completions 17.5 (you can pick over or under)

Michael Vick passing yards 240.5

Michael Vick touchdown PASSES 1.5 (remember Vick likes to run some in)

Michael Vick throws one or more interceptions -140

Michael Vick rushes for a touchdown +170

 

I'll let Swirven sort through all the rest, ha ha.

 

Anybody have any insight? gut feelings?

[swirvenirvin 25]

I like Vick over 17.5 completions and Desean over 4 receptions, however past history of Desean vs the Redskins I can not make the bets

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

In yahoo pick'em, 80% of the people picking games picked Philly -3 to cover.

 

So obviously, Philly is a huge public play. It's scary to take Philly just because of that. I'd like to conjure up some kind of confidence on a bet tonight to make a play but so far, nothing. I'll go over to Covers and see if our friends over there can preach something at me I'll beleive.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Here is an angle I didn't consider yet. Donovan McNaab will go out of his way to show he is worth the 5 year $70 million dollar contract he just signed. And who better to prove it against than the team that got rid of him?

 

I'm starting to possibly see the light for Washington here.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Screw it. I'm in on the Philadelphia moneyline.

 

One bet:

 

Philly -190

 

I've got Vick on my fantasy team, so at least it'll be easy to root for the Eagles.

[swirvenirvin 25]

In yahoo pick'em, 80% of the people picking games picked Philly -3 to cover.

 

So obviously, Philly is a huge public play. It's scary to take Philly just because of that. I'd like to conjure up some kind of confidence on a bet tonight to make a play but so far, nothing. I'll go over to Covers and see if our friends over there can preach something at me I'll beleive.

This is what my "system" is, I run a pickem at work and any consensus over 70% I fade. It's been profitable the past two years at least. 3-1 this week finally a winning week after a few bad ones

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

This is what my "system" is, I run a pickem at work and any consensus over 70% I fade. It's been profitable the past two years at least. 3-1 this week finally a winning week after a few bad ones

Nice, I've been looking at that as an element of predicting, that's for sure. Sometimes it makes sense when a favorite is popular. One team that I changed my mind on this week was Tampa Bay. They were a huge popular 88% 6.5 favorite. So with that 6.5 spread and being so popular, I'm thinking Carolina early in the week. Then I see the spread move to 7 on sportsbook which told me this may not be the game to pick the dog on. I knew the betting public would be on Indy -7 and I thought for sure the Indy moneyline should be faded as well. But no, the Indy moneyline won, but the Dallas moneyline failed and screwed up tons of moneyline parylays, etc.

 

Oh well, nice system you have, but it's the fine tuning of it all that will make us bundles....................I hope.