The value of 'rentals' in dynasty

[madd futher mucker 36]

I was asked during our recent draft by one of our owners which Dynasty rankings I used and found to be most helpful. My quick response was “My own, that I put out on the forum at fftoday just after the 1st of the year”.

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=380433&st=0&p=4414078&hl=dynasty&fromsearch=1entry4414078

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=380267&st=0&p=4412523&hl=dynasty&fromsearch=1entry4412523

 

I went on to comment that I also like Evan Silva’s at Rotoworld and the ones done over at ProFootballFocus.

 

But the fact is that Dynasty rankings are just not very helpful for several reasons. Dynasty rankings are just general lists that have very little validity relative to your specific dynasty team and situation. For supplemental drafts in an established dynasty league, you need to be objective specific in your picks. Are you a contender or a rebuild? You would draft completely different in each case. In a start-up dynasty draft, each pick is based upon the picks before, and each pick should be made for a specific reason. Dynasty rankings are of little benefit in helping you with that. In fact, when I drafted my recent dynasty team, I did not even LOOK at my rankings, or Silva’s or anyone elses for that matter.

 

One think I do know about various Dynasty rankings is that some are much more age-influenced than others. Something many mentors have drummed into my head is that a player’s age many times over-influences an owner’s decision in who to draft. You simply cannot bank on a player not having a season ending or career shortening injury at any point in time, and 6 year careers in the NFL are the exception and not the rule. I’m not saying that you shouldn't take age into account, especially when drafting studs, but I’ll be the first to admit that I still have the habit of taking things too far in the direction of youth. Every time I’ve published my dynasty rankings, it seems, WhiteWonder points this out to me. And he’s right!

 

In the last few years, I’ve come to rank older players with very small windows in the NFL as rentals, and put them as a special category, but I've ranked them at the bottom of each position list. In the future, I will still put them in a special category but not assign a ranking to them that implies my distain for their talents.

 

‘Rentals’ can have very significant value in dynasty draft situations, regardless of whether it is a supplemental draft or a start-up draft. Look no farther than the 15 round start-up draft we recently completed. I needed to complete my very neglected WR corps, where I didn’t even draft my 2nd WR until I took 32 year old Santana Moss in the 11th round. All of the good young WRs were long gone. But Moss figures to give me about 200 fantasy points or more in PPR format, about the same as other WRs drafted as WR2s like Holmes, Maclin, Knox, and Marshall, and more than Sidney Rice, Britt, and Garcon, all of who were off the board long before. I still was in need at the position, so in round 13 I took 37+ year old Derrick Mason. I’m not crazy about the 155 - 160 fantasy points I have projected for my WR3, but again, there were lots more shiny new toys that went way ahead of him that are less bankable for this kind of production. Finally in round 14, my pick for the 4th WR on my roster was….another rental….34 year old ex-inmate Plaxico Burress. Does he have bankable production that can be projected at all? Of course not. He’s a home-run or bust pick that you would expect with a 14 rounder. But we do know that he looked like a guy with quite a bit left in the tank when he exchanged his NFL uniform for an orange jumpsuit, and he’s coming back with something to prove and no additional wear-and-tear between uniform switches.

 

So thanks, WhiteWonder for finally convincing me of the folly of always chasing the 'pretty young girls'. This time I took my share of the older ones, who happened to be the only ones left before the bar was closing (too sexist of an analogy maybe?? LOLOL - OK, I'm 63, but I still remember those days!) - and they may have saved my azz in this particular draft!

[WhiteWonder 2,786]

haha, glad i could help?

 

my main point when it comes to dynasty rankings and drafting is that you should never plan too far ahead. especially someone who prides themselves on trading as often as you do.

 

in any dynasty league, there has to be some amount of planning ahead but I would never pass up good, current production simply because a guy might only have 4 or 5 more years left. Take the value NOW, win a championship, and trade. You may not get amazing value for the older player but if you fancy yourself as someone with trading skills, then i'm sure you can take care of the position when the time comes.

 

best example i can think of is the QB spot. I wouldn't pass up Manning or Brady just because they are on the home stretch. These guys can win you titles right now. And there is ALWAYS an up and coming QB prospect. Freeman, Bradford.... there will be more.

[Cara 0]

I play in several dynasty leagues. The first few I was in were not the best. It took some time to realize an aging WR in a PPR scoring format held very little value in the offseason. Like you, I am a trader, much more so than anyone else in my leagues. I don't think I've ever returned more than 5 players from season to season.

 

If I join a new Dynasty League, I am careful about rental players. For example; Right now I would not touch Reggie Wayne in a Dynasty League if he were there several rounds later than anticipated. His after the season trade value is already nothing in my leagues, so I would hate to see it after this season.

 

I do not draft strictly by age, but do have some age ranges I try to stick with when drafting. I will not draft a RB over 26 in a dynasty league, a wide receiver over 30 or a tight end over 30. This rules out some great players, but selecting the great player for only one season is risky unless it is a QB. QB's always seem to be readily available.

 

Great article (post) by the way. I do not read rankings from anywhere else as I prefer to create my own. I am working on my sleeper list for 2011 now. This is going to be the year for sleepers and there are plenty to be had.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Wow, Cara....seeing you and Stoney show up back on the board in the same week is the fantasy football equivalent of groundhogs day. I know now that in six weeks there will be an NFL season!

 

Even if you decide not post your sleeper list on the bored here, make sure you pm me a copy. You know I'm one of your biggest fans. I hope you haven't spent all the money you won from fantasy last year.

[stonewall 647]

Wow, Cara....seeing you and Stoney show up back on the board in the same week is the fantasy football equivalent of groundhogs day. I know now that in six weeks there will be an NFL season!

 

Even if you decide not post your sleeper list on the bored here, make sure you pm me a copy. You know I'm one of your biggest fans. I hope you haven't spent all the money you won from fantasy last year.

 

Indeed, I would be interested in a peek at that list also.