Quick List: Upside WR fliers to target after pick 100.

[c9h13no3 0]

When I'm drafting, I like to have a couple of lists that help make my picks automatic. When I make my lists out, I do it here in the forum so that maybe someone can benefit from my thought process. My defensive quick list can be found here.

 

The early rounds of the draft are easy, its the late rounds that separate the good & bad teams. If you drafted Peyton Hillis, Darren McFadden, or Mike Williams last year, you were probably fist-pumpin' all the way to the bank. So today I'm making out my list of WR's to target in rounds 10+.

 

Now we're looking for players with upside here, and that usually means that we're looking for 2nd/3rd year WR's who have the opportunity to get the number of targets needed to get into the top 15 WR's. So a replacement level talent like Steve Breaston will not be on this list, since they do not help us win our league.

 

Last year Stevie Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, and Mike Williams were the late round/undrafted WR's who broke into the top 15. They all have this in common: there was not a primary target in the passing game. Brandon Lloyd emerged to take over Brandon Marshall's targets when he left for Miami. Stevie Johnson became Ryan Fitzpatrick's primary option, and Mike Williams was on the catching end of most of Josh Freeman's passes. Opportunity trumps talent here kids.

 

So what we're looking for are teams that do not have a primary target in the passing game. We're also looking for a WR that is on top of the depth chart, in the starting lineup. Youth is also key, as the number of breakout WR's over the past few years are rarely in the league longer than 4 years.

 

 

Cincinatti Bengals - T.O. left 9.9 targets/game, Ochocinco left 9. Tons of targets here to grab. Dalton is a checkdown artist though, so that caps the upside of the WR's here. Top of the depth chart: Jerome Simpson, AJ Green, Jordan Shipley, Jermaine Gresham.

 

Oakland Raiders - Zach Miller left 6.2 tar/g when he went to the 'Hawks. Campbell can make 1 guy fantasy relevant. TotDC: Jacoby Ford, Heyward-Bey, Louis Murphy, Kevin Boss. Relevant Names: Denarius Moore, Chaz Schilens.

 

St. Louis Rams - Mark Clayton had 10 targets per game in his 4 full games, and the Rams were passing 37 times per game *last year*. Bradford can maybe make 2 targets fantasy relevant (Amendola + ?). TotDC: Brandon Gibson, Danario Alexander, Danny Amendola, Michael Hoomanawanui. Relevant names: Mike Sims-Walker, Donnie Avery, Austin Pettis, Greg Salas, Lance Kendricks

 

Jacksonville Jaguars - Mike Sims-Walker left 5.7 targets per game when he went to the Rams. MSW was good in 2009, and Garrard made Lewis fantasy relevant this year. Room here for a breakout WR. TotDC: Mike Thomas, Jason Hill, Marcedes Lewis. Relevant Names: Cecil Shorts

 

New Orleans Saints - Colston is coming off a fifth knee surgery, and Reggie Bush got 5.2 tar/g. Don't automatically assume Darren Sproles will get the looks Bush left behind. When Bush was out last year, Lance Moore was the primary benefactor. TotDC: Colston, Henderson, Moore, Graham. Relevant Names: Meachem, Arrington

 

 

So with that list in mind, lets create a list of breakout WR candidates. I've ranked them, but that ranking doesn't really mean much right now. Depth charts & injuries will certainly change things by week 1, so take these rankings with a grain of salt.

 

1. Jacoby Ford, ADP = 109.2 - He's in the starting lineup, and I'm not a Heyward-Bey believer. Kevin Boss is who we thought he is (a replacement level tight end). Given his performance last year as a rookie, I'd expect for him to become Jason Campbell's primary target.

 

2. Robert Meachem, ADP = 130.2 - The Saints are usually 2nd in the league in pass attempts per game. Moore probably has a higher floor, but Meachem has the highest ceiling. And ceiling is what we're after in round 11.

 

3. Lance Moore, ADP = 131.0 - Reggie Bush is gone, and Moore got paid. He was the #13 fantasy WR in 2008 (albeit because of an unsustainable TD/catch rate). WR #15-20 is probably his ceiling, but at pick 131, I'll take that.

 

4. Danario Alexander, ADP = 156.4 - Crazy risky given his knees (go google pictures of his legs, seriously). But if his legs hold up, has the most upside of any WR on the Rams.

 

5. Greg Little, ADP = 144.5 - Former college running back is already in the starting line up, and he fits Pat Schurmur's check-down, conservative offense. Sure, he's a rookie but the upside is there.

 

6. Andre Roberts

7. Jordan Shipley

8. Arrelious Benn

9. Jerome Simpson

10. Emmanuel Sanders

[giraldi02 470]

Good post. I do think DHB is worth a flier though. I'm gonna try and buy with my final pick this year

[IGotWorms 3,447]

I expect Moore and possibly Meachem's ADP to rise significantly as people realize that Colston is a huge question mark this year. I think they will both still be good value, but not as good as you have them here.

[We Tigers 71]

Good post. I do think DHB is worth a flier though. I'm gonna try and buy with my final pick this year

I doubt DHB starts with the camp Denarius Moore's having. He seems to be the anti-DHB in all the good ways.

 

This is a really great list. I'm particularly high on Lance Moore and Mike Thomas. The only one I'm kinda meh on here is Greg Little, who has the situation, but seems to have been struggling based on what I've been reading. Drops, not a lot of awareness, etc.; contrast that with Mike Williams last year, who seemed incredibly pro-ready by all reports.

[c9h13no3 0]

Drops, not a lot of awareness, etc.; contrast that with Mike Williams last year, who seemed incredibly pro-ready by all reports.

I'll agree with this (we both read Rotoworld news I see...). But I don't think Williams being "pro ready" was as important as the talent vacuum he was in last year. Its a long preseason, I'll move him down if he doesn't turn the light on.

 

Course, McCoy spread the ball around in his debut. Bradford did the same with the Rams, spreading the ball around to quite a few targets. I'm not sure if this is Schurmur's offense, or just the fact that there isn't a true standout receiver on the team.

 

McCoy's targets in the preseason thus far:

 

Little - 2 (3 from Seneca Wallace)

Cribbs - 2

Watson - 2

Moore - 2

Hillis - 1

Robiskie - 1

 

Good post. I do think DHB is worth a flier though. I'm gonna try and buy with my final pick this year

Problem with DHB is that we've seen what he has to offer. Typically, when a WR gets *that much* playing time, you can tell if they're going to break out or not. And the resounding opinion is "NO" on DHB.

[DanXIII 8]

I think Julio Jones belongs somewhere on that list

 

/homer

 

[montana 89]

Lance, MSW, Julio, Lee Evans (if slow azz Mason could grab 60/800/7, so can Evans), Jordy.

Real late on Denarius Moore.

[c9h13no3 0]

Lance, MSW, Julio, Lee Evans (if slow azz Mason could grab 60/800/7, so can Evans), Jordy.

Real late on Denarius Moore.

Julio Jones - ADP = 72.4. His ADP is in the 6th round. Kenny Britt's ADP is 71. Julio will be on none of my teams this year. The hype has gotten way out of hand.

 

Mike Sims-Walker just saw his ADP dip back down into the 100's, so yeah, he should probably be on this list.

 

Lee Evans - We've pretty much seen what he can do. WR's on new teams typically don't perform well. But I suppose there is some upside here.

 

Nelson's opportunity is a serious problem. He's still competing with Jones/Driver/Finley/Jennings for targets. His superbowl performance is artificially inflating his price tag. The Packers aren't going to go into every game with a "Pick on William Gay" game plan.