Fantasy Defense

[vegassandwich227 0]

Decided to look at the final D/ST rankings over each of the last 4 years, and see how each team did the following year. Pretty much what I expected. The table below shows the avg next season rank for each previous season final rank (hope that makes sense...so, for the last four years, the D/ST that finished 1st has on average finished as the 9th best D/ST the following year).

 

This is going off my main money league, which is pretty standard.

 

rank avg

1 9

2 16

3 10

4 13

5 13

6 8

7 19

8 15

9 13

10 15

11 15

12 18

13 15

14 22

15 21

16 13

17 18

18 20

19 10

20 25

21 16

22 24

23 13

24 18

25 16

26 23

27 22

28 16

29 20

30 23

31 15

32 19

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

This is the perfect depiction as to why you can't go off of previous years results when it comes to picking a Fantasy DEF. There are simply too many variables such as schedules , additions/loss of players & coordinators, etc. that effect the DEF. Can't wait to see all the guys who took San Fran's DEF 5 rounds too early cry at the end of the year when they finish close to #9.

[WhiteWonder 2,237]

i have two thoughts based on this "data"

 

1. yeah, it doesn't exactly pay to take the #1 ranked defense if you're simply going off last years finish. But the defense you rank #1 doesn't have to be last years #1. I like Houston best this year. I won't overpay for them but im not drafting last years #1.

 

 

2. Never reach for a defense before the last 2-3 rounds BUT i dont think you can simply say don't take the top ranked defense because they average a 9th place finish. Looks like the 2nd ranked defense averages 16th. the 3rd 4th and 5th all average in the teens. Bottom line is you still have to be capable of projecting which defense will finish top 5