Chud Missile the new OC

[Mr Neil 63]

I have always been a big fan of Chud and his vertical passing scheme and it should fit the Colts O and Lucks arm strength. They have a great ROS. Thinking of waiting until his bye week after facing Denver D and buying him "low". I think Chud really turns that offense around

[McBain 13]

Time to unleash the Kraken!

[BattleshipLorenzen 3]

Worse, not better. Pep was great. Why did the no-huddle, hurry-up work at end of games? Luck probably had to go with the called play instead of making a stupid audible. Luck is indecisive, makes awful decisions, stares down receivers, apparently can't read coverages well, and doesn't have the health that allowed him to make up for it with brilliant downfield plays in the past. Yeah, let's try to install a new system for him, mid-season.

 

Not a knock against Chud at all, but stupid franchises do this. The playoffs are there, and that's what matters. I'm not calling Irsay a bad enough owner to make the Colts a stupid franchise (but he DID want a stop the run/run the ball/ lose the games philosophy), but..top tier franchises are better than this.

[BattleshipLorenzen 3]

If they fire their alchemist defensive coordinator, then this team truly belongs in the AFC South.

[the newb 23]

I have always been a big fan of Chud and his vertical passing scheme and it should fit the Colts O and Lucks arm strength. They have a great ROS. Thinking of waiting until his bye week after facing Denver D and buying him "low". I think Chud really turns that offense around

I heard today from I think Dilfer, that Colts QBs have been sacked/hurried/hit over %50 of the time when they hold the ball for more than 2 seconds. Not sure if the down field passing game fits this team right now

[brotherbock 349]

Worse, not better. Pep was great. Why did the no-huddle, hurry-up work at end of games? Luck probably had to go with the called play instead of making a stupid audible.

 

Or did they have to simplify in the hurry up and just let their skilled players make plays? Hilton, Moncrief, Allen, even Andre still. These are guys who have the talent to get open if you stop trying to be cute. Heck, even Fleener is very skilled at getting open (just not the greatest at actually catching the ball once he's there). At some point, OCs can be trying to do too much. That's another possibility.

[BattleshipLorenzen 3]

I heard today from I think Dilfer, that Colts QBs have been sacked/hurried/hit over %50 of the time when they hold the ball for more than 2 seconds. Not sure if the down field passing game fits this team right now

Depends. Are the numbers basically the same at 2.1 seconds, 2.2 seconds, 2.3 seconds, etc.? Luck has really been holding onto the ball, and basically all sports media types love taking one statistic, without context, and fitting it to a narrative. That said, downfield passing doesn't fit very well because Luck isn't healthy. Unfortunately, Luck, without downfield passing, is not very good. You end up with the weak points of his game without the strong points. Of course, Colts fans are obvlivious and will believe anything, "It can't be Luck," then "Yeah Luck needs to do better, but there has to be a miracle fix! It makes no sense, unless you have been paying attention and look at the extremely plausible explanaations (and prognostications) that make sense! Therefore, fire Pep!".

 

Dear Pats fans: What's it like to not have to worry about other Pats fans being stupid, because the franchise will always be smart anyway?

[BattleshipLorenzen 3]

 

Or did they have to simplify in the hurry up and just let their skilled players make plays? Hilton, Moncrief, Allen, even Andre still. These are guys who have the talent to get open if you stop trying to be cute. Heck, even Fleener is very skilled at getting open (just not the greatest at actually catching the ball once he's there). At some point, OCs can be trying to do too much. That's another possibility.

Players are struggling getting open, but I agree with you, except...it's Luck. He's the one who hesitates, who misreads, who holds audibles at the line, who forces throws, etc. In hurry-up, it seems like the ball gets out fast and spread around. I think that's Pep. With zero evidence, Colts fans assume it's Luck, perhaps in part because Manning DID do that. Luck has never been within the stratosphere of Manning.

 

Pep may be doing things wrong, but Luck's issues are so much more significant that we can't really tell, and given what we can see Luck doing wrong, and what is plausibly transpiring when the team moves the ball well in hurry-up, it doesn't make sense to blame Pep. Not that I'm saying you are - I certainly agree that he may be part of the problem. But he's not even top 10, and we really don't have evidence of it.

[brotherbock 349]

Players are struggling getting open, but I agree with you, except...it's Luck. He's the one who hesitates, who misreads, who holds audibles at the line, who forces throws, etc. In hurry-up, it seems like the ball gets out fast and spread around. I think that's Pep. With zero evidence, Colts fans assume it's Luck, perhaps in part because Manning DID do that. Luck has never been within the stratosphere of Manning.

 

Pep may be doing things wrong, but Luck's issues are so much more significant that we can't really tell, and given what we can see Luck doing wrong, and what is plausibly transpiring when the team moves the ball well in hurry-up, it doesn't make sense to blame Pep. Not that I'm saying you are - I certainly agree that he may be part of the problem. But he's not even top 10, and we really don't have evidence of it.

 

You're making sense, absolutely. I'm a Luck fan only by way of having him in my keeper league, but I don't think that blinds me. If anything, I think it tends to make me critical. I can't rely on a guy out of faith, I need to win!

 

My opinion, though, is that Luck is showing badly in large part because of the lack of time he's getting. If I recall, he got plenty of time in college, and lots of time last year too. This may be the first time he's faced people in the backfield so often. Literally the first time in his life. I also think the audible stuff can come from just a conflict between OC and QB. Regardless of who's good or not, a QB who gets that freedom runs into trouble if he doesn't trust the OC. What really helped Peyton was the nobody was forcing anything on him, right? Until this year, and we've seen how bad that was turning out. Too many chiefs. And I'm blaming Pep a little--I wasn't watching every snap, but his play calling wasn't inspiring early in games. Very predictable, it seemed. Not a trainwreck, but not inspiring.

 

You're right that Luck is playing bad too, but my opinion is that he does in fact have the mental capacity to get it back on track. He's not 'a guy who makes bad decisions', he's 'a guy who is making bad decisions', if you get my meaning.

 

What happens when a guy who's had everything go right for him in his sport for his entire life, since grade school, suddenly has a bad O-line? Struggling doesn't mean he doesn't have the capacity.

 

I do think the rest of this season will give us a lot more data to work with, though.

[BattleshipLorenzen 3]

Very reasonable analysis. I think we only are working from different data sets (or proxies - Nate Dunlevy is good enough to go with over basically all other opposition unless it's, say, all of FootballOutsiders and other advanced analysis groups, or one of those groups with the film breakdown to back it - but ND concedes if that happens. Needless to say, this excludes essentially every single sports writer, ESPN blogger, the godawful beat writers around Indy, etc.). My understanding is that the OL is better this year. Specifically, they ended up at the lineup that they seem to always take too long to get to, even though it works best. They're a low-mediocre unit. I think the only thing that could have been better on OL last year was A.Q. Shipley at center, but, as best as anyone can tell, he ran over Pagano's dog or something, as he never saw the field after showing he could play better than the others. Having a good year for his new team last I heard.

 

ND's strong contention has been - since week 1 review - that these are mistakes Luck has always made. The hope was that he would grow out of them into a top 5, instead of a 10-15 like he had been (11th in DVOA last year; lower first and 2nd years). This year, though, the streaks were longer, and the brilliance that countered it was missing. Suspicions of injury were floated, and some people caught some hints pretty early relative to when we finally heard something official, and we had a potential answer. Now, we know enough (despite the secrecy) to conclude that injury is preventing the great plays. Not only do his characteristic bad plays stand out more without them, but it may also create a feedback loop - more opportunities to make bad plays, defenses daring him to either beat his weaknesses or beat his injury, etc.

 

All to say: This is the same Luck, but injured, with the logical consequences of the injury. The mistakes aren't new; they simply aren't offset, and he's a much more limited player (missed 2 TDs late last night that he normally hits). The real story is: The mistakes he's always made haven't gone away, and are thus who he is, just like the fast-scoring, successful gunslinging last year is who he is as a QB. When he's healthy, as a Colts fan and a FF owner, I'll gladly take the bad with the good. We're learning this year what it's like when he's not healthy - it's a lot like Super-Cam and Unhealthy Cam. Luck has taken a lot of sacks prior to this year - he played well under pressure last year.