BattleshipLorenzen 3 Posted November 9, 2015 Well...not that going to church means you won't do bad things, but if he was known as a gang banger instead, I'd wonder if my investment was going to end up cut or in prison later on. Make Greg Hardy a comparable QB...his past won't affect a team's (or a keeper league owner's ) considerations? I think it's a fair point. Agree with BrotherBock and Murf; replace "church" with any other social structure that you like. Dez had issues, and asked for a curfew, help from his pastor (social accountability), etc. Is he problem free? No, but he's been a success - compare that to Gordon. I'd just put it in the "can help him stay on the field and focused" category. Similarly, I was happy to grab "injury-history" DeMarco Murray in the 1st least year after reading about his hew offseason workout routine with Witten. Witten gave experience, garnered social respect, and provided accountability. If Lacy has an offseason "work out with Witten" story, that'll up his draft stock for me next year, despite this year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brotherbock 349 Posted November 9, 2015 Hah my bad I completely missed that it was a keeper league question. It doesn't really belong in this thread, but we can definitely help establish what Carr is by comparing him to similar QBs. You have 8 games of eval left to make up your mind! lol No worries Although the thread is simply about Carr being 'elite'. I think an in depth comparison about long-term value compared to the guy who everyone's mother said was the consensus #1 QB pick this year is relevant to the discussion. Battleship and I aren't only talking keeper stuff, after all, right? I'm a Nate Dunlevy parrot, and am happy to summarize his material. Regarding DVOA, the year matters greatly. It IS the best starting point for evaluating a QB (and probably ending point - QBR is also good). However, ESPN was, as you suspected, giving crap analysis IMO simply because of Carr's age and situation. It's like the crap Manning-Luck comparisons. Their first 3 years were almost identical! Luck better overall first 3 years! Well, Manning's 1st year was an amazing outlier (his team wend 3-13). His second year, he was 2nd best in the league (DVOA; 13-3 record), and was best his 3rd year. Last year was Carr's first year, so his really bad DVOA isn't, IMO, a good indicator. Brady has also had a high to very high DVOA ranking from early on, before he had statistical success (a.k.a. volume metrics, as opposed to value [per play] metrics, like DVOA). Rivers has been a top 10 guy most of the time. Brees and Rodgers are generally top 5. Short version: you need the qualitative information (Randy Moss is the only identified Quarterback Maker, hence Culpepper's 39 TD season), and ESPN was pulling nonsense by using DVOA from a first-year player. I'm not sure what metrics are good with true positives, false positives, true negatives, etc., for a first-year player. Re Moncrief: Agreed. He yo-yo's between a very good free keeper (in my league -- better than Dez for a 1st, not as good as Nuk for a 2nd). I think I'd give the edge to Crabtree as a possession receiver (since he seems to have his head on straight right now). Teams seem to know to cover Moncrief in the end zone now, whereas Carr has two weapons with height. For the same price, though...I'd give a slight edge to Luck (unless penalties for turnovers are substantial). He's running again, and 30 yards = 75 yards passing. The Colts aren't getting a pass rush any time soon, so their games should generally require more high scoring. Their remaining schedules should settle it (aside from draft, etc., in offseason). We'll see if Pagano is content to score under 30 in every game. I've gotta study up more on DVOA. I've been skeptical of QBR, just because of the source, but then I remember that 'passer rating' is horrible for its own reasons too. I noticed too that ESPN wasn't talking at all about the eye test, which I'm sure the interviewed insiders were also relying on. Stats can deceive--so can the eye test, but using them together helps. I haven't been able to see a lot of Carr, but he looks solid every time I see him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brotherbock 349 Posted November 9, 2015 Agree with BrotherBock and Murf; replace "church" with any other social structure that you like. Dez had issues, and asked for a curfew, help from his pastor (social accountability), etc. Is he problem free? No, but he's been a success Which is just more proof that Dez actually is quite mature. To know that you need a curfew is actually more mature in some ways than not needing one. He knows his own weaknesses. He's been problem free, as far as I've heard, hasn't he? Sideline 'blowups', but it's always stuff his teammates approve of when we find out about it. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BattleshipLorenzen 3 Posted November 9, 2015 No worries Although the thread is simply about Carr being 'elite'. I think an in depth comparison about long-term value compared to the guy who everyone's mother said was the consensus #1 QB pick this year is relevant to the discussion. Battleship and I aren't only talking keeper stuff, after all, right? I've gotta study up more on DVOA. I've been skeptical of QBR, just because of the source, but then I remember that 'passer rating' is horrible for its own reasons too. I noticed too that ESPN wasn't talking at all about the eye test, which I'm sure the interviewed insiders were also relying on. Stats can deceive--so can the eye test, but using them together helps. I haven't been able to see a lot of Carr, but he looks solid every time I see him. Football Perspective has a piece where they examine traditional stats and the family of "advanced metrics." It was, in title, an article about QBR I think. Short version, QBR is actually the best for predicting future wins, despite it being really odd sometimes for single games. It is somewhat stable year-to-year. Annual stability is the only place passer rating caught up, and that's largely because annual yardage is somewhat correlated year over year, yardage being also a function of offensive style. DVOA does get weird for RBs sometimes, from a fantasy perspective. QBR skepticism is reasonable, but it has gotten a lot better than it was pre-2014, when it had some widely-panned "clutch factor" or something. If Carr keeps in the top 10 of DVOA, though, that will say a fair bit IMO. Which is just more proof that Dez actually is quite mature. To know that you need a curfew is actually more mature in some ways than not needing one. He knows his own weaknesses. He's been problem free, as far as I've heard, hasn't he? Sideline 'blowups', but it's always stuff his teammates approve of when we find out about it. Very much agreed. Marshall got help too, and he's not exactly dragging his team down. Doug Baldwin, OTOH, reportedly doesn't believe therapy will help him with anger management issues. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brotherbock 349 Posted November 9, 2015 Football Perspective has a piece where they examine traditional stats and the family of "advanced metrics." It was, in title, an article about QBR I think. Short version, QBR is actually the best for predicting future wins, despite it being really odd sometimes for single games. It is somewhat stable year-to-year. Annual stability is the only place passer rating caught up, and that's largely because annual yardage is somewhat correlated year over year, yardage being also a function of offensive style. DVOA does get weird for RBs sometimes, from a fantasy perspective. QBR skepticism is reasonable, but it has gotten a lot better than it was pre-2014, when it had some widely-panned "clutch factor" or something. If Carr keeps in the top 10 of DVOA, though, that will say a fair bit IMO. Very much agreed. Marshall got help too, and he's not exactly dragging his team down. Doug Baldwin, OTOH, reportedly doesn't believe therapy will help him with anger management issues. Good to know on the QBR front. One reason to trust ESPN, at least I remember the clutch index, and I'm a believer that 'clutch' is an entirely spectator-created phenomenon, so that was one reason I was turned off to it. The last time I remember Marshall having an 'issue' was when he wanted to wear mental health awareness socks during the NFL's money grubbing breast cancer awareness week, and they were going to fine him. Not exactly the sort of 'trouble' I'd be concerned with either. Doug Baldwin has anger issues, huh? Who knew? He's not on camera enough during games for me to have noticed Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
