The "Thank You, Axe Elf!" Thread - Week 4 Edition

[AxeElf 787]

[echo] said:

Need ur thoughts on my Week 4 flex--Jarvis Landry or Darrell Williams, PPR 

Axe Elf said:

That's a tough one, because Darrell Williams could go for 5 pts or he could go for 15 points.  Landry has been pretty reliable for 9-10 pts, but he's been getting like 8 targets per game, and only catching 3 of them.  If he would catch more like 7 of his 8-9 targets at his yards-per-catch average of 16.1, he could return something in the 15-20 point range as well (even without a TD).  Baltimore hasn't been extremely strong against the pass (ranked #27 out of 32 teams), but then, they've had to play the Cardinals and Chiefs in the first 3 weeks.  Darrell Williams has a better chance of piling up stats when the Chiefs have the game in hand and they don't want to risk McCoy, but their game at the Lions has a lot of shootout potential, and they could end up relying largely on McCoy until the bitter end.  So, with the Browns in a divisional matchup, I think I'd probably put a bet on Landry outperforming his 9 pt average this week, and Darrell Williams scoring fewer than that.

Result:

Landry:  24.7 pts (8 receptions, no TD)

Williams:  18.6 pts

It's almost like Axe Elf has a Sports Almanac from the future!

Thank you, Axe Elf!

 

Mark91G said:

Freeman or Jones:  Who do u think is the best flex play this week? PPR 

Axe Elf said:

Well, I count 46 players named Jones in the NFL, and only two Freemans, so the odds are in your favor to go with Jones.

Mark91G said:

Aaron jones GB and d. Freeman ATL 

Axe Elf said:

Then go against the odds and flex Freeman.

oldtimer said:

Jones finished with a TD last night and 6 receptions for an additional 37 yards.  Freeman is playing a pretty stout TN run defense.  We shall see, but I'm hoping the OP started Jones and took the 17.5 points that came with him (depending on your scoring format, but this is what he earned in my PPR).

Result:

Freeman:  18.0 pts

Jones:  17.8 pts

Even with half the results at their disposal, others' advice can't beat Axe Elf's!

Thank you, Axe Elf!

 

FantasyRetard said:

QB (1)- Lamar Jackson vs. Cleveland or Aaron Rodgers vs. Philadelphia

Axe Elf said:

I'm trying to think of a reason to start the #2 fantasy QB on Sunday over the #22 fantasy QB in a Thursday night game, but I keep going back and forth.

Result:

Rodgers:  26.5 pts (0 receptions)

Jackson:  26.5 pts (0 receptions)

No wonder Axe Elf kept going back and forth--either one was the correct answer!  You just don't find pinpoint accuracy like this anywhere else!

Thank you, Axe Elf!

FantasyRetard said:

I went with Rodgers last night and got a 40-point night.

Axe Elf says:

I don't know what kind of cockamamie scoring system your league uses, but in typical fantasy QB scoring (1 pt per 25 yards passing, 1 pt per 10 yards rushing, 4 pt pass TDs, -1 pt per INT and -2 pts per fumble lost) Rodgers and Jackson both scored 26.5 points.  If you want answers tailored to your individual unique scoring system in the future, then you should probably provide the details of that scoring system in your inquiry.

 

FootballT said:

Non-PPR: Which RB would you flex:  Gurley vs TB? or Fournette vs Denver? or  White vs Bills?

Axe Elf said:

Despite Gurley getting off to a "disappointing" start, he's still averaging more non-PPR fantasy points than either Fournette or White, so I'd be tempted to go with him.  HOWEVER, the Tampa Bay defense has sent both Saquon Barkley and Tevin Coleman to the locker room with ankle injuries, and bottled up Christian McCaffrey to the tune of 5.3 fantasy points in Week 2--and they are currently the #6 rushing defense in the NFL, allowing a mere 69.7 yards per game.  Therefore, Fournette.

Result:

Fournette:  24.5 pts

Gurley:  19.0 pts

White:  5.8 pts

Thank you, Axe Elf!

 

SWAMI SEZ said:

Full point PPR which QB - Matt Stafford @ home vs KC or Daniel Jones @ home vs Washington

Axe Elf said:

Stafford; he will have way more receptions than Jones.

Result:

Stafford:  23.4 pts (0 receptions)

Jones:  14.3 pts (0 receptions)

Thank you, Axe Elf!

 

rrmcguire said:

At QB Goff or Murray

Axe Elf said:

Good matchup for Goff.

Result:

Goff:  23.7 pts

Murray:  17.3 pts

Thank you, Axe Elf!

 

qrkid said:

Trying to decide who to go with as 2nd QB in Superflex league. Kyle Allen or Andy Dalton?

Axe Elf said:

Allen had a good game against Arizona, but then there are some high school QBs who would have good games against Arizona.  I'm not sure I'm ready to trust him over other credible options just yet.  The only team worse than Pittsburgh in pass defense through three weeks is the Giants--and Dalton has been averaging 19.5 fantasy points per game against some pretty credible pass defenses (SEA #16, SF #7, and BUF #9) anyway.  It doesn't get much better than that--other than getting to watch him bring your team from behind for a win on Monday night!

Result:

Dalton:  4.6 pts

Allen:  3.3 pts

Thank you, Axe Elf!

 

pullie1 said:

Im in a non ppr and we start 3 RB's and for my 3rd RB my chooses are either Lindsay or Hyde. I leaning towards Lindsay. Any Suggestions.Please

Axe Elf said:

Hyde being more of the sole goalline back for Houston, he's the play in non-PPR scoring (plus Carolina is #24 vs the run, to Jacksonville's #17 ranking).

Result:

Hyde:  6.4 pts

Lindsay:  6.0 pts

Thank you, Axe Elf!

 

Nomad99 said:

WR/TE flex; Olsen vs HOU or Richardson Jr vs Giants

Axe Elf said:

Richardson, with McLaurin out.

Result:

Richardson:  4.4 pts PPR; 1.4 pts Std

Olsen:  2.5 pts PPR; 0.5 pts Std

Thank you, Axe Elf!

 

SexyRexy said:

Pick 1 ppr - Right now dj Moore is in my flex... dj Moore or dissly?

Axe Elf said:

Dissly does have the sweetest of all possible TE matchups this week, and he's been hot in the Seattle offense, while DJ was almost invisible to the new Panthers' QB Allen in Week 3.  Which probably means that you should bench Dissly and start Moore, but you'll look like a fool if it doesn't work out, so if saving face is important to you, bench Moore and start Dissly--then at least you did the Right Thing.

Result:

Dissly:  18.7 pts

Moore:  7.4 pts

Thank you, Axe Elf!

 

FunkyStunts said:

Marvin Jones or Christian Kirk, 1pt ppr

Axe Elf said:

Most weeks I would probably say Kirk, but this week, in a matchup with the Chiefs, it's going to be all WR hands on deck--so Jones.

Result:

Jones:  10.7 pts

Kirk:  8.3 pts

Thank you, Axe Elf!

 

Redlegs said:

Do I start Allen Robinson or Dorsett?

Axe Elf said:

Dorsett is a good play to be sure, but with Gabriel out, I think you have to start Robinson.

Result:

Robinson:  14.7 pts PPR; 7.7 pts Std

Dorsett:  3.9 pts PPR; 1.9 pts Std

Thank you, Axe Elf!

 

BirdGang said:

Hardman @ DET or Robinosn vs MIN in non PPR

Axe Elf said:

With Gabriel out, I think I'd go Robinson.

Result:

Robinson:  7.7 pts

Hardman:  1.1 pts

Thank you, Axe Elf!

 

Æ™

"I'm Axe Elf, and I approve this gratitude."

[RabidSeaCows 99]

Once again I didn't make this thread! Come on man, step up your game for me! 

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, RabidSeaCows said:

Once again I didn't make this thread! Come on man, step up your game for me! 

You don't get into the "Thank you, Axe Elf!" thread by wanting to; you get into it by what you get out of it.

Start axing better questions than "Which one of these two RB40-RB45ish players will help my team most this week?" and maybe you'll get better analysis than, "I don't know.  Flip a coin and hope it doesn't land on its side."