Instant Fantasy Analysis - WR Justin Jefferson, Vikings

[The Football Guru 212]

Draft Profile

Although he doesn't figure to be restricted to inside work, Jefferson possesses at least two qualities that make him a great slot receiver: exceptional body control and what appears to be zero apprehension for running routes over the middle of the field. It's not hard to imagine Jefferson's career mirroring that of Michael Thomas or Davante Adams; he plays the ball in the air like they do at times. His 4.41 speed shows he can stretch the field if needed, but he wins more often than not because he is such a smooth and savvy route-runner. Even better for the Vikings, Joe Burrow repeatedly trusted Jefferson in contested-catch situations. More often than not, he delivered.

While Thomas and Adams is a potential ceiling for him, it's also not hard to imagine Jefferson becoming a Michael Jenkins clone in which he enjoys a steady career but never strikes much fear into a defense. Part of being a great receiver is the ability to make his quarterback look better than he is. I'm not sure Jefferson is that kind of player. The 2019 FBS receptions co-leader does enough of the things to earn trust from his quarterbacks and figures to be a heavy favorite to start opposite Adam Thielen right away. Jefferson very much has the look of a complementary receiver at the NFL level who will be asked to move the chains and perhaps serve as Minnesota's primary red zone option. Just don't expect him to be "the man" until Thielen slows down.

What does it mean in redraft? Yet another receiver lands in a spot where he won't be the primary option right away, even after the trade of Stefon Diggs to Buffalo. The good news for Jefferson is that he should be an immediate starter. It will be interesting to see how the Vikings address the slot situation going forward; Thielen does a lot of his best work there and Jefferson essentially lived there in 2019 at LSU. Fantasy owners should consider Jefferson's rookie-year ceiling as a WR4 if Thielen stays healthy in Minnesota's run-heavy offense.

What does it mean for dynasty? Thielen will turn 30 before the start of this season, so it may not take more than a year or two for Jefferson to become the man in Minnesota, especially if comps to Keenan Allen proved to be prophetic. Given he figures to be a Week 1 starter and a key part of the passing game, expect Jefferson to go in the middle part of the first round in rookie drafts at the latest. (Will update again after the draft is completed.)

[tanatastic 2,061]

He was my dark horse for best rookie WR and is in a decent spot to deliver.