Study does deep dive on if refs are favoring Chiefs in biggest games — here’s what researchers found

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https://nypost.com/2025/10/14/sports/study-does-deep-dive-on-if-refs-are-favoring-chiefs-in-biggest-games/

Published Oct. 14, 2025, 5:18 p.m. ET

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Are all the memes of Patrick Mahomes and the referees based on reality?

Research conducted recently by the University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP), a public research university, suggests that what we are seeing on screen isn’t an anomaly or your imagination: The Chiefs are indeed receiving favorable whistles in their biggest games.

In a dataset spanning more than 13,000 penalty calls from 2015 through 2023, researchers found that “postseason officiating has disproportionately favored the Mahomes-era Kansas City Chiefs, coinciding with their rise as one of the NFL’s most marketable franchises.”

The theory, developed by the lead author of the study, assistant professor of finance at UTEP Spencer Barnes, Ph.D., considers essential moments such as playoffs and nationally televised games.

The study states that when “the league’s financial health is at stake, rule enforcement may subtly shift to protect market appeal.” 

When Swift was present for a Sept. 24, 2023, game, it drew 24.3 million viewers on Fox, up from the average viewership of 15 million.

Fans on social media have been quick to point to Swift — and her massive popularity — as the reason why the league would be quick to favor the Chiefs.

In playoff games, penalties against Kansas City opponents were 2.36 more yards than average. Flags were also 23 percent more likely to result in a first down in favor of the Chiefs.

The study adds that subjective calls, such as roughing the passer and pass interference, occurred 28 percent more frequently.

Sports Illustrated previously reported that Mahomes gets .412 roughing the passer penalties per postseason game, up significantly from the .12 league average.

During the regular season, the pattern is reversed. According to the study, the Chiefs get less than average yardage on penalties and are less likely to produce first downs compared to league norms.

According to UTEP, the Chiefs have an advantage in the high-leverage moments during the playoffs, but other dynasties (Patriots) did not show a similar advantage.

“The fact that postseason penalties consistently favored one franchise, while similar dynasties showed no such pattern, points to the powerful role of financial incentives in shaping supposedly neutral decisions,” Barnes said.

The Chiefs are undoubtedly among the league’s best teams as they again find themselves among the Super Bowl favorites ahead of Week 7.

There was a questionable call that hit league circles on “Sunday Night Football” during the Chiefs’ eventual 30-17 win, which would not have shown up in this study.

Kelce caught a critical pass on third down that appeared to be moving and potentially would have been ruled incomplete upon further review.

The Chiefs wisely rushed to the line of scrimmage and ran a play before the replay assistant could make a different ruling.

 

Also, water is wet

[TimHauck 3,253]

Did they do the study on the moon?