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lesjroza

Member Since 01 Sep 2004
Offline Last Active Today, 03:27 PM
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#6297838 Jerick McKinnon injury

Posted by lesjroza on 01 September 2018 - 06:58 PM

Let's get the Breida train rolling down the track!  Warrick Dunn size and shift:

 

https://youtu.be/CjPAz-fUI1o

 

 

Yes Sir!    Engine room, more steam!

 

https://3sigmaathlet...chive/2017s/rb/

 

 

Top RB in Sparq rank of the 2017 class ahead of Aaron Jones who was the 3rd most athletic and Alvin Kamara who was the 4th.

 

Also, I don't want to refute anything that someone else here said and not show evidence but I personally sincerely doubt Breida is at 190 lbs now a full year into professional training having come from a small school where he was 195 at the time of testing that produced this score.

 

I understand where people got that weight as he is listed at NFL.com and other places at that number but I'm skeptical it isn't higher now




#6280202 Browns trade Corey Coleman to Bills

Posted by lesjroza on 06 August 2018 - 11:56 AM

Something to remember is that when a team acquires a player they also acquire the contract, and there are considerations for both teams associated.

 

Available salary cap is an equally important asset in this era as draft picks.

 

Coleman is on a rookie deal, and while all rookie deals are favorable, he has the contract of the 15th pick in the first round of the 2016 draft.

 

So................a team that acquires Coleman is assuming his '18 salary, plus if they cut him this year, would also assume a Dead cap hit that includes a pro-rated portion of his original signing bonus. I think Cleveland would have had a cap hit of 3.5 million if they had cut him, Buffalo now assumes this obligation as far as I know. Beyond '18 there are considerations each year remaining on his contract.

 

A team has to like Coleman and have him fit into their overall cap space this year, plus fit how they project their cap budget going forward while considering all of the moving parts on their roster.

 

For instance the Browns now do not have a 3.5 million cap hit for cutting Coleman, money they can spend elsewhere, on Dez perhaps. The pick received is a small asset but the salary cap now and going forward saved by trading him was/is an asset too.

 

The Bills take an interesting flyer but there is more cost than the 7th round pick spent. There are also current and future salary cap obligations which means less money to spend on re-signing current players and future free agents.

 

When all is said and done, there can be many less suitors for a player in Coleman's situation than one would think. A team has to feel they like Coleman as a prospect, a fit in their system and locker room, fit within their cap for '18, as well as in future years with however they project their roster going forward, etc.

 

The value of player in the league is inextricably tied to their contract and how both the player and the contract fit into current and future roster plans of each interested team.




#6151585 Off-season Targets/Guys you are avoiding

Posted by lesjroza on 05 February 2018 - 05:08 PM

 

Sammy Watkins is a 24 year old WR that was a thousand yard WR his first 2 years with poor QB play.  It is concerning that he looked like the 3rd best WR on the rams this year, but that is why he is a buy target. His potential outweighs his cost, he should be dirt cheap.

 

Dirt cheap is a relative term

 

According to the guy who runs DLFs mock startup dynasty drafts, here is where Sammy falls in startups.

 

The third round of January’s '18 DLF dynasty ADP…

3.01 Mixon

3.02 Diggs

3.03 ARob

3.04 C Davis

3.05 Landry

3.06 Hilton

3.07 Kelce

3.08 Thielen

3.09 Watkins

3.10 Henry

3.11 Baldwin

3.12 Howard

 

Every league is different, every owner different, scoring - settings matter, Startups are different than existing leagues yada-yada ..........but this as close to a "market" measure value as I know

 

IMO Sammy isn't dirt cheap but probably appropriately priced or simply unavailable in most leagues. Most owners that still own him do so for the ceiling at this point. Unless you can pry him away with a piece of value the other owner needs or covets (rookie fever?) he isn't changing rosters.

In a Startup it takes a late third or an early 4th. I think its good risk - reward at that price personally but I also think that's about appropriate at this point without more information (FA). FWIW I also think he looked a lot better than you do this year, but he simply wasn't targeted as a secondary read by a QB he had no time to develop any chemistry. He was open continuously despite having one of the tougher CB schedule matchups going into the season.




#6138515 2018 offseason fantasy offer/trade thread

Posted by lesjroza on 24 January 2018 - 07:29 PM

Yeah. Mixon has shown little and is on the Bengals. Barkley has done nothing yet in the pros. You don't even know where he ends up which is huge. If you don't trade Johnson away, the worst case scenario is you have David Johnson. Not to mention the guy will never get arrested for beating his wife or girlfriend.

 

 

Cool beans, I was just curious if it mattered to you there was another piece. I think most all redraft focused players feel the need for guys to prove it before assigning values and I think maybe half-ish dynasty guys feel the same way, there are lots of styles that win. If somebody is going to do it they have to have a great deal of confidence in their overall risk-reward assessment. I think for the percentage of guys who are willing to make that type of deal, the initial location is of much less importance than it is to you though.

 

I personally fall in between to some extent, because most all my rosters are competitive every year and its hard to hold a few Todd Gurleys on roster slots through a moribund period like he was with the Rams for a couple of years unless they spend some time on taxi, but if a player is talented most guys who make decisions based on the long term don't get to caught up in the short term. 

 

When it comes to the situation where Barkley ends up though I'm not sure DJs will be any better at this point, its at least as unknown right now ..............and as I mentioned that's part of what has sealed it for me now even for competitive rosters.`




#6132834 Off-season Targets/Guys you are avoiding

Posted by lesjroza on 19 January 2018 - 07:05 AM

No Moss

 

Your TE list would then be

 

Shaheen Butt Gathers No Moss

 

 

Its gonna be a long off-season, gotta find the humor where we can      :)




#6130402 Josh McDaniels likely to become coach of the Colts

Posted by lesjroza on 16 January 2018 - 11:01 AM

 

I don't think that's true, about Cutler back then.  I could be wrong though, but I don't remember any negative thoughts towards him.  Sure, he (McDaniels), would want his guy, but there must have been a more tactful way of going about it than the way he did.  In the end, he did get his guy (Tebow), and was fired during that season.  It was clear that his approach lost his players.

 

No, I don't think you can say that McDaniels was right.  Cutler wasn't a "turnover machine" in Denver.  In his first season as a starter, he threw 14 Int's... tied for 12th (w/ P. Manning), and 1 better than Rivers.  Yeah, the following year he was 2nd, but he only threw 1 more than Brees.  Considering that he threw the 2nd most passes in the league that year, I can see that as a reasonable out come of a 2nd year starter... and something that a good coach would have been able to address.  He also completed around 62% of his passes each of those years.  Cutler showed a lot of potential.

 

I also don't think you can say McDaniels was right either.  Cutler was a pretty solid QB virtually his whole career with garbage coaching (under Lovie Smith), where as Cassell only had 1 solid year as a starter.  With bad coaching under Lovie Smith, the Bears were .500 with Cutler.  I think a team with good coaching could have won with Cutler as their QB.

 

 

I'm with Ralphster on this one. Everybody likes the thought of what Jay Cutler can do for you until you actually get Jay Cutler doing it. Stats can be deceiving, much of Cutler's career production has come during games where he has already blown up any chance of winning. 

 

Cutler has the Sadim touch...................that's King Midas in reverse........ everything he touches turns to s**t!

I suspect the players in the huddle know that no matter how much they are up or down, Cutler will find a way to lose by the time the 4th quarter rolls. 




#6105767 J Williams GB and A Collins Balt- what is their value next season?

Posted by lesjroza on 15 December 2017 - 01:20 PM

What are your guys thoughts about these 2 players?  Both have looked solid this year with the opportunity.  Will their teams draft RBs high with the goal of using these 2 as backups to the rookies OR are these two good enough that the teams are confident they can be a lead back and then just draft rookies in the 3rd-6th round?

 

What is the feeling around here?  

 

Do these two have the lead role to themselves or are they just there now because of injury and lack of other talent?

 

 

My feeling is that Collins has a stronger grip that Williams.  He could be a bellcow moving forward.  I think Williams has to prove himself over the next couple weeks.

 

I'm assuming the OP was musing from a dynasty perspective, I have both guys on a couple of rosters. Here is what I think FWIW.

 

The Collins situation is tough to get a good read on, its possible we will get some definitive help in the off-season but not a guarantee.

 

Collins has been running really hot and seems like a good fit for the offense, he reminds me a bit of Devonta Freeman at this point......... but Collins frame does not engender confidence he can continue to run with that style as a feature RB in the NFL over the long haul, then again neither did Freeman's size though he has a better build IMO.

 

He is an ERFA  (exclusive rights free agent) meaning Balt has the right, but not the obligation to sign him to a one year contract next year for a bit more than a half million. Collins must accept that one year offer if its tendered, so this off-season is a point of maximum leverage for Balt. If they like him a lot, they can offer him a multi-year deal while he knows the best he can do is the paltry sum for 1 yr otherwise.

 

Watch if they try to work out a longer deal, if Balt really does like him they may try. If they really don't like him, they could let him go back into FA and become available to any team for '18. Most likely he will be playing in Balt next yr on a 1 yr prove it deal.

 

Given Collins size, Dixon not having proven anything yet, and the team's probable preference to run the ball play and strong D, esp in that division, I think they are a reasonable candidate to take a RB high next year or bring in another strong FA. If a guy they see as a Bell Cow can be had at the point he is a value to them I can see it for sure and I suspect if not they are also a candidate to take another mid-round RB unless they sign Collins longer term............ because he would be on a 1 yr deal, Dixon is coming off injury AND has off-field concerns (currently on suspension), Woodhead is old and got hurt, and Allen is a '19 FA.

 

 

Regarding Jamaal Williams.........its never gonna feel great with him IMO. He has baseline athletic ability but not much more juice. Owners are always going to be worried about the potential for a flashier player to emerge. Nevertheless, he can and likely will be a very successful FF RB in that Packers offense and what's really important is what the organization thinks. He has a three down skill set and the Packers are gonna put up stats as long as Arod is around.

I know Jones is flashier, and the more dynamic runner, but the ability to play on all 3 downs AND, very importantly, stay healthy enough to be a bell cow is valued there. It probably helps that GB feels they have gotten exactly what they bargained for when drafting him and used more draft capital on him than the other young RBs. Note the comments I have copy and pasted below from Josh Norris timeline recently.

 

Unless JWill gets hurt, or something happens that changes the current dynamic, I personally would not expect the Packers to draft a RB high in next years draft given the other team needs. I suspect they should feel backfield is adequate, including competitive depth having invested in the RB position recently.

If the organization has a super high grade on a RB that falls or something, you never know, but they have to put a better team around Rodgers including defense and Oline............. that entire roster is depleted, just hard for me to imagine much draft capital spent on RB.   

 

 I do think Jwill will be the starter next year and I think the offense plus his 3 down potential should have him on the low RB1/high RB2 borderline for the '18 season. If you consider that potential, plus his age, I doubt his current "market value" reflects proper pricing.........but as I say its probably never gonna feel great and he will be continually undervalued until the point he gets surpassed or overprices himself with the next contract (years?), and then it will be too late to sell. I think he is a strong hold and absolutely ideal depth because I suspect it will be hard to get what I see as his value...........at least until fall drafts roll and he is being taken in the RB10-15 range, then you may have a chance to get fair value from the right guy.

 

 

Josh Norris

Verified account @JoshNorris
FollowingFollowing @JoshNorris
More

Josh Norris Retweeted Aaron Nagler

GB nailed their evaluation of Jamaal Williams and detailed it back in April: "Good at pass protection. Aggressive downhill runner. Tough. Built to last...size plays a factor in evaluation when considering cold weather, wearing down opponents. Hammer" http://www.

Josh Norris added,




#6068076 collusion by commissioner?

Posted by lesjroza on 02 November 2017 - 10:46 AM

reason I oppose and put it here.

1 he's the commish. didn't allow for ww process to play out. 8 teams ahead of fish and 4 needs a rb that will get a few touches during bye week.

2. te was picked up off ww traded 4 days later than dropped. no other player involved.

3. was up for vote for 2 hours.

 

If I had to come down on one side or the other, this is the biggest determinant for me even though it doesn't address the definition of collusion in any way. 

 

Commishes should make a commitment to stay out of the grey IMO. 

 

Like I say from experience it feels awful when you are the team the headwind is being put against........if the commish is the one doing it, it can create a sense of paranoia about other things involving the league as well. 

 

That said, you know that old saying, the best revenge is living well? The FF version here is winning anyway.....it brings a whole different level of satisfaction knowing what was attempted and foiling it. "Dude, I can beat you with one hand tied behind my back"!   :)

 

I would be curious to know though if he was asked what his rationale for the trade was and his answer. It is possible he was thinking of something that was a whole different level of gamesmanship...............really smart or really stupid are also possible instead of collusion. Sounds like a bad fit for that league either way but unfortunate the way it went down.




#6067947 collusion by commissioner?

Posted by lesjroza on 02 November 2017 - 09:20 AM

I see some teams make a version of this trade in my 16 teamer several times a season. Forget about the trade specifics, drops, players involved etc. because there are too many unknowns, it could still be argued to benefit the team who made the Kittle drop in waivers next week for instance.

 

IMO the question boils down to is it truly collusion to help move another team forward if a team involved doesn't benefit from the players but rather as a result a 3rd team being theoretically restrained (more difficult matchup) .

 

A version of my enemies, enemy, is my friend.

 

16 team leagues are very different, very small things matter and playoff teams often come down to tie breakers among multiple teams.

 

There is a lot of room for different opinions on this one but mine is that it likely isn't against the rules, its in a grey area, and probably not a good idea by the commish............yes I think commishes have a diffident standard (to stay far from the grey).

 

What was given up in Ivory is not currently a sure boost though. Last I read it was under consideration that Yeldon might pass Ivory so I think that also provides the commish with some cover.




#6056468 Zeke and NFL talking settlement

Posted by lesjroza on 19 October 2017 - 05:11 PM

Law, on 19 Oct 2017 - 1:45 PM, said:


What makes me LOL is the arrogance with which you post. I understand you likely stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but really,"...I have been following closely since the start and have a far better handle on this than the majority of national reporters...." followed up with calling people naive and not serious and on and on?

Listen dude, you don't know jack! You can try your best to post as if you do, but you don't so just relax.

lesjroza, on 19 Oct 2017 - 1:47 PM, said:



Nah, the truth is that I do know............. that I don't "know", for the most part, there is no such thing

Additionally let me add and clarify a few things.

If I offended you in some way, or anyone else, I apologize, its not you, its me........its not uncommon.

I have a way of being snarky, and it does not sit well with everyone, but there is no malicious intent.

When I write "I'm not an expert but I stayed in a Holiday Inn last night" I'm actually intending to convey the opposite of arrogance....awareness that I'm not an expert on this subject.

At the same time when I say I have a better handle on it than most national reporters.......... I'm sorry if you took offense but I very strongly believe that is true. From the comments you have made, I believe you have a better handle as well!

Its not meant to demean national reporters or put them down. They have more things they know more about than I do, and better sources on many subjects. At the same time they have many responsibilities that require more time than I have spent than on this single issue. Its not meant to convey superiority of intelligence or any other offensive way you may have taken it. I also believe most national reporters would, and actually have admitted throughout this process that they could be better informed and seem uncomfortable writing about it.

Also let me encourage you, and everybody here for that matter, every one of us can be more informed than a national reporter when it comes to opinions and facts pertinent to FF if we drill down the way they are unable to. Have confidence in yourself! That, in fact, is the very reason I come here, to have my own opinions challenged and hopefully to find different viewpoints from people who have knowledge to drop on a specific subject where I do not have the time or inclination to research.

When I said "Zeke's name will never be clear regardless of what happens in court anyway, don't be naive."...... that was not an attempt to label any person naive. If you or others took it as demeaning I assure you it wasn't the intent. I was conveying that IMO the idea (not the person), that Zeke (or any celebrity) accused of domestic abuse would have their name "cleared" by the court process is not consistent with the experience we have had recently as a society. This court process is not intended to clear his name, and even if it did, nothing has worked for others through recent history. The stigma will still be there. All one has to do is read this board and that should be clear.

Also, I did not take offense to this : "Listen dude, you don't know jack! You can try your best to post as if you do, but you don't so just relax.

The one thing I do know.................... is that I don't "know" very many things at all. I consider most things in a range of outcomes more so than absolutes anyway. However, I do have a great deal of confidence in my ability to predict and navigate a range fairly well because I have had success doing so in many facets of life throughout the years. My confidence can and does appear as "arrogance", to some especially when I write, so I get where you are saying. If you prefer a more humble route for yourself, and others that's cool, very cool. I wish I conveyed it more myself, its a good thing to aspire to and I hope I can improve in that area. Also FWIW when I post my name is on it. I try not to post about things I have not done some research on, and or a lot of thinking about, and I don't post the opposite of what I believe to throw my league mates off my intent. If its that important I'm worried about somebody knowing my thinking, I just don't comment which is why you don't see a boatload of posts from me.

As for relax, I'm not sure I could be much more, you are misinterpreting thinking otherwise.

I thought it important to apologize to you and anybody else who took the "naive" comment regarding an idea as a personal attack, to me your writing it as you did was a mischaracterization. It was a poor choice of a word on my part, but I wanted to make sure that people saw I was commenting on an idea and not a person regardless of the semantics.




#6052625 UPDATE: Possibility of a Zeke suspension? - Allowed to play Wk 7

Posted by lesjroza on 15 October 2017 - 12:57 PM

Ingram looking pretty darn good today. 20 points in the first half. There may go my shot at trading for him haha

 

Yeah, owners are funny that way. This week's points are obviously very game script dependent as the Saints are up early big in part on a defensive TD............but its usually not obvious to all.

 

It does highlight the ceiling for Ingram but he he will continue to have mostly high floor games. Good luck with whatever you decide.




#6046384 UPDATE: Possibility of a Zeke suspension? - Allowed to play Wk 7

Posted by lesjroza on 07 October 2017 - 12:14 PM

Great write up, thanks. About the prior postings. I enjoy this forum but one think that is a pain in the neck is the constant new threads. There are 3 other threads about the Elliott case, now plus this one. Might as well discuss it here.

I picked up McFadden this week because I thought there was a decent chance the court could rule on a pretty simple issue, and yet it didn't. It might be that they did not want to send the parties into chaos at the end of the week before the game, so maybe they rule pretty quickly Mon or Tue.

Like you said further up 25% chance of a lead back in the Dallas run game for 6 weeks is probably worth more than 100% chance of having one of 3-4 backs in the Seattle run game. But then the case will have to be remanded to Mazzant, then he will have to issue an order of dismissal, then EE could file in SDNY, get another injunction and then Dal has a meh matchup then a bye... it's a lot of work.

In response to another point above, it's *possible that EE could play week 6, then get suspended, then weeks 8-13 could be McFadden. Those are important weeks.

 

Agreed that this is certainly possible, but IMO its unlikely.

 

I agree that its a pain having a bunch of threads but I don't do 20 word answers for better or worse (I know many think its worse!) and I'm unwilling to type my own thoughts over and over again as its laborious.

 

So if anybody cares they can search other threads but the bottom line on my reasoning...........if it goes another couple of weeks without resolution (for '17) it gets to the point where all parties on the Zeke side are no longer aligned in motivation. There is a Zeke selfish viewpoint, an NFLPA viewpoint, and a Cowboys viewpoint. 

 

I think the 5th circuit will rule this week and depending how they rule and what the basis for that ruling is, all further maneuvering will be completed before the Cowboys bye week is over. If it goes against, and then against again, its probable the suspension is just accepted.

 

This will otherwise come to a point where Zeke/Cowboys will have more to lose than to gain by him continuing the fight knowing that its pretty likely he eventually serves this 6 games at some point in the future. Nothing set in stone here, and its just my opinion but its a long held opinion for me, I'm not making it up as I go or anything.

 

Edit:  I'm going on the assumption you meant week 7 in the typing above as the Cowboys are on bye week 6, I think I got what you are saying but don't want to confuse anybody




#6046378 UPDATE: Possibility of a Zeke suspension? - Allowed to play Wk 7

Posted by lesjroza on 07 October 2017 - 11:30 AM

Google

 

 

 

Some of the best threads on the topic are actually right here on this board.................. search here.

 

Google will give you at the top lots of general journalists who do not know the true ins and outs.

 

IMO (guesstimate) 75% chance the NFL loses its bid to quash the Mazzant ruling so Zeke continues to play, but that makes it a 25% chance he is back on suspension which is a lot higher odds than you are going to see most places. 

 

We should get a ruling this upcoming week on the bid to quash, but even then, it won't be decided definitively necessarily.

If for instance the 5th circuit over rules Mazzant based on the idea that it was the wrong jurisdiction for the NFLPA to have filed in, and/or doing so was too early since the arbitrator ruling hadn't come down..............then it just means the original process will start over once again with the ball in the court of the 5th circuit (pun intended).

 

The NFLPA will likely file for an immediate injunction based on the same reasoning they used in the Mazzant venue and they would have a reasonable chance of winning the same injunction in the 5th circuit.

 

So Zeke could be on suspension and off suspension, again next week, with 48 hours or so!

 

Look, I think the larger question is how much Mcfadden, Morris, and/or the rook would produce in the event Zeke does end up out..... and the truth is nobody knows. To me this is the heart of the matter and its not a legal question. When you go to start whoever it is in that first week you are not going to know how the RBs will be used and whether they will produce even if one used heavily. Its possible its a time share/work split for RBs and its probable the passing game takes a bigger share. My guess is hot hand comes into play as all 3 RBs will be active.

 

Maybe its back to Beasley targeted more often for instance, rather than the RB out of the backfield.

 

If it does work out your way, its not even like its for all season, just 6 weeks none of which is playoffs.

 

Meanwhile you are passing by every other WW prospect you had a chance to roster so you can hold one of the Dallas maybe's. It can work out of course, but its lower percentage play. Again all these thoughts and more are found here in other Zeke threads and its worth searching here.




#6027970 judge order expedited hearing for Zeke

Posted by lesjroza on 18 September 2017 - 12:26 PM

 

Where you get the 25% number? 

Historically it's 7% and without the judge hearing the case and the NFL proving that they will be harmed by his non-suspension, the chances are closer to 1%.

 

 

I'll elaborate, but not get into an argument about guesswork. I am not a lawyer though I did stay in a Holiday Inn last year. :)

Any odds anybody gives you are based on guesswork.

 

The court averages are averages of totals while each case has individual merits within those totals.

 

The court is likely to rule (I am on that side too remember) "no stay" (Elliott plays!) based on the principle that it would be a greater harm to Elliott than the NFL if they made him sit and eventually decided the other way on the full case. This is logical and it makes sense to most of us.

 

However they could also rule FOR a stay by using the principle that the likelihood is so high that they will eventually rule for the NFL it makes sense to rule for a stay now. This also is logical. Most all legal observers feel that the NFL will eventually win this case so this would not be unrealistic.

 

The Mazzant court room was sort of a home field advantage for Elliott and that why it was filed in that jurisdiction by the NFLPA.

 

The 5th circuit court is a home field advantage for the NFL and that's why they filed the appeal there.

 

The 5th circuit court is where the Brady suspension had its final determination in favor of the NFL. 

 

Its less of a stretch than others may be weighting that the 5th circuit, who already determined the Brady precedent in their jurisdiction, would rule for the stay based on the idea that they will eventually rule the entire case in favor of the NFL.

 

The 7% total number is made up of very few similar cases. Show me a percentage of cases ruled upon where a precedent is established by the same jurisdiction (and very possibly the same judges!) a short time ago. 




#6024195 judge order expedited hearing for Zeke

Posted by lesjroza on 13 September 2017 - 01:40 PM

The real question here is who is Zeke's handcuff?! I thought it was DMC but he was inactive Week 1 for Alf Morris. McFadden got dropped in a lot of leagues this week. 

 

If, and it's a big and unlikely IF, something does go down, who's the add? 

 

 

I was among the droppers. Its pretty unclear IMO what the Boys would do in the case of EE being suspended...........so the lack of clarity should be your guide. Yes it will sting if Elliott gets suspended and you don't have the backup but I don't think we know for sure who that is, let alone whether that guy will be used as a feature RB, if once they are they will be able to maintain it, or even if so, they will have FF starter productivity.......it could just be a whole bunch more of the passing game. I'm not giving advice but that's my approach, and the odds do seem tilted toward EE being available this year, you could miss out on a guy who turns out to be more productive anyway.