- 250 touches and double digit TDs this season for the Rams ... book it.
Wow. I hope people still think this in August when redrafts roll but I doubt it. I think its close to 80% Gurley starts on PUP, meaning he misses the first 6 weeks min.
I'm not sure he will be anywhere near game shape and he will have been struggling to catch up from lack of reps due to rehab focus.
He may be activated onto the roster somewhere between weeks 6-8 but may not may not be active on gamedays because I doubt they are going to play him on ST which means its going to depend on whether they can fit 3-4 RBs on the game day roster and that's going to depend on how other positions are shaking out, no way of knowing right now.
When he makes it onto the game day roster he will likely be limited to 10 or so touches a game in order to work himself into game shape and those 10 touches will not yet include much passing game work because as noted above he will not have had the opportunity to take the load of reps required for ANY rookie RB to get up to speed on protections and pass blocking in the NFL. Many RBs that appeared capable do not get the opportunity even with all the off-season reps.
Additionally, it would be exceedingly rare for any player to have the previous level of explosion and confidence in cuts at that point in a comeback. Gurley is unlikely to be a significant FF asset until 2016 and this was always the case based on a timeline from his injury. You didn't hear much about it because the dialogue was very controlled due to his draft prospects but it will become more clear at some point this summer.
I put the over under at 125 touches only because I can go that high, guys will still want to take the over.
My best guess right now is 80-90 touches in 2015, but leaving room for adjustment to how the rehab plays out.