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lesjroza

Member Since 01 Sep 2004
Offline Last Active Today, 03:10 PM
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Posts I've Made

In Topic: Rate the rookies for your dynasty draft or redraft

19 May 2015 - 10:32 AM

1. gurley

2. gordon

3. cooper

4. white

5. parker

 

Tier II:  note:  I only see 9 '1st round' picks in this draft

6. Alhgohor

7. coleman

8. yeldon

9. perriman

 

Tier III:  all these guys could be solid players

10.  green-beckham

11. winston

12. abdullah

13. strong

14. david johnson

15. david cobb

16. strong

17. dorsett

18. smith

19. MAXX

20. Strong

21. ajayi

22. coates

23. lockett

24. Funchess

 

and then I like:

langford

jones

ty montgomery

mariotta

duke johnson

J. Allen

 

 

everyone else sucks.

 

I agree mostly with your take though I would order the names in the tiers differently.

 

I would just say though on talent Green-Beckham doesn't belong with the "could be solid players" tier.

 

On talent he belongs with tier #1 IMO.

 

How one discounts potential future off-field stuff - plus stunted current skill development due to previous off-field stuff would determine where he gets placed for each owner.  

 

For some he makes sense in the 1st tier and for some he won't even be on the board.

 

DGB is the highest Beta stock in this years portfolio of prospects.


In Topic: Giants Fan's Rookie Bust Pick

16 May 2015 - 08:59 PM

So how do you define "bust"in this case?

 

SD "really sucked at running the ball" last year but Ryan Mathews still averaged just above double digit PPG when he played and so did Oliver when Mathews was out.....enough to make either on the cusp of RB2 territory when starting.

 

Its hard for me to see anybody expecting much more than that this year for Gordo as a rookie RB while he is unlikely to play significant snaps in the passing game so are you thinking he underperforms that 10-12 ish PPG expectation badly?

 

Like maybe 5 PPG average Giants Fan? 


In Topic: Do you have fantasy football secrets that you don't share on the board? o...

11 May 2015 - 09:20 AM

 

Have preset auction values is still very important.  You need to have guidelines.  If you stick exactly to your auction values it could kill your team.  You must stay flexible but still should stay close to your auction values.  If you really want a player go ahead and pay big bucks for him but be aware at how much money you have left and the caliber of players that will be available at that amount.  Sometimes it's best to let others over pay for a player you want.

 

You are correct, flexibility is key.  It's important to keep a cool head too though.  Don't get caught in a bidding battle.

 

You guys are getting what I was laying down generally but I was actually talking about applying the auction value idea even to non-auction leagues.

 

The concept that even though you may be playing in a standard redraft or dynasty league each player has an "auction style value" and that is very much settings dependent.

 

Using that approach gives you a lens though which you can view trade options, etc. with more clarity. A trade that makes sense in one league using the same players, even using with the exact same rosters can yield a different answer depending on roster sizes, etc.

 

I always chuckle a little bit when I see guys post trades on boards asking for opinions and see others give their own opinion with such conviction.

Even if we have great production projections that turn out to be right all the time (and who does?), the league specific settings are an important component and generally not known.  


In Topic: Do you have fantasy football secrets that you don't share on the board? o...

10 May 2015 - 03:37 PM

It shouldn't be a secret, and you've heard it before, but I have found many guys just don't give enough thought to the rules and how they affect player values.

 

Even in leagues with experienced FF players......... guys focus mostly on how much a player will produce in terms of NFL stats rather than translating that back into how it will produce in terms of league scoring rules, then setting it within the context of the lineup they could put together, then setting it within the context of roster sizes.

 

Same player - different scoring rules would obviously be different, though I don't think many give enough thought to just how to adjust even in that case. 

I'm almost certain many don't give enough thought to how to adjust player values sufficiently for lineup differences, and it appears rare to find those who are adjusting player values for things like the total number of roster slots. 

 

In a truly competitive league all the guys know football well and have FF experience. Some guys might get more right in any given year and go on a "good luck run", but those who know the rules inside and out and how to adjust for them have an advantage that doesn't go away in any given year and you are more likely to see them near the top year after year despite not being any smarter or more plugged into the NFL.


In Topic: I might roll the dice with C.Sims

05 May 2015 - 06:23 PM

May I suggest two eyes?

 

Should be well ahead of others with the carrot diet and all.

 

Or are you saving one for something else?

 

One on Elmer perhaps?     :)