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lesjroza

Member Since 01 Sep 2004
Offline Last Active Yesterday, 09:48 PM
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Posts I've Made

In Topic: Lets talk Sammy Watkins

Yesterday, 09:48 PM

Noticed the same in a dynasty league, traded for Julio for cheaper than the Watkins owner wanted.

 

 

There are dynasty rosters on which I would prefer Julio.......... and some where I would prefer Watkins. I'm not surprised SW would be more valuable to some owners.  SW is 23, Julio 27. Julio probably has 3-4 elite WR1 (potentially league winning) years left, Watkins potentially has twice as many prime years left. Comes down to whether one believes that SW has talent and the situation to translate to consistent WR1 production because double the prime years is a hard discounting mechanism.

 

There shouldn't be much doubt its possible because he did it last year after he complained about usage and Rex agreed publicly. SW owners are more likely to have seen him play down the stretch last year than the average FF participant as Buffalo is a pretty small market team, but for those that didn't he was unstoppable, those were not fluky occurrences leading to the stats. This article (poorly written IMO) puts what he did in that half season into perspective using layman's words in case you don't have a subscription to PFF to click through and a degree in statistical analysis. If one was watching games, no math skills were required. It was year 2 in the league........... the future is very bright........... gotta stay on the field though.

 

http://www.buffaloru...analytics-study

 

"Buffalo Bills wide receiver Sammy Watkins was an amazing downfield threat in 2015, that we know. 

During the offseason, he was named “the king” of a Pro Football Focus study.

 

Tyler Loechner of PFF analyzed the impact of average depth of target (aDOT) on wide receiver catch rate from 2007 to 2015, and Watkins was, as Loechner put it, “the king of the study.” 

As a whole, there was almost a direct correlation between aDOT and catch percentage. For you math enthusiasts, it had a r-squared of 0.975. 

Why was Watkins the “king of the study?” Last year, he finished significantly above his “expected catch rate” based on his high aDOT of 18.3 yards. 

Here’s what Loechner wrote: “Watkins’ expected catch rate last season was 49.1 percent. However, his QB-adjusted catch rate was 66.5 percent. This meant Watkins caught 26.2 percent more passes than expected.”

According to Loechner’s graph, Watkins’ 66.5 percent catch rate was expected if he averaged slightly less than nine yards per target, an incredibly low number for any wideout. 

 

This is a telling, advanced figure that demonstrates how the Bills wideout truly emerged as, arguably, the most dynamic downfield threat in the NFL during his second professional season. 

Watkins’ seismic explosion, most namely on deep passes, suggests he clearly transitioned faster than many expected. 

After a dazzling three-year career at Clemson, the general consensus on Watkins centered around him immediately being a bubble-screen and short-passing game monster in the NFL but that the intricacies of pro routes would lengthen his learning curve at the intermediate and deep levels of the field. 

When Watkins was a highly coveted prospect in 2014, Greg Peshek of Rotoworld published a comprehensive study on the top receivers in that draft class. 

He found that 57.43% of Watkins catches in his final year with the Tigers were screens, more than 30% higher than the national average. That’s an insane disparity. 

Also, Watkins led the 2014 wideout class with a whopping 8.48 yards-after-the-catch average, despite 70% of his receptions coming within five yards of the line of scrimmage. 

Lastly, Peshak discovered Watkins ran a “go route” just 15.79% of the time, the lowest percentage in his traditional route tree. 

All the film-based numbers indicated that Watkins would enter the league as a screen dynamo, and his effectiveness down the field would come later in this career.

In that amazingly bubble-screen heavy Clemson offense of 2013, he had 101 grabs for 1,464 yards with 12 touchdowns. 

If anything, through two seasons and 222 NFL targets, Watkins has proven to be fully capable of executing “pro WR duties,” and we’ve seen him utilized the least in the easier-to-grasp screen game with which he’s familiar. 

Now, as an established downfield weapon, Watkins will likely see more soft coverage and rolled safeties over the top in 2016. 

So is this the year the Bills star pass-catcher is frequently used and ultimately thrives in the screen game?"


In Topic: Levon Bell Missed Drug Test-4 Games?

22 July 2016 - 01:55 PM

I didn't mean draft stock. I meant overall value. Like if someone were to trade Brown away.

 

It would have to be someone allergic to championships.........................lol

 

Think about it though, the extra bump in tgts means his FLOOR is probably #1 WR...........lol

 

Now he is the safest #1 PPR pick in the history of FF...................you know what that means though


In Topic: Levon Bell Missed Drug Test-4 Games?

22 July 2016 - 09:19 AM

Le'veon Bell's early September ADP last season when facing two-game suspension was No.2 overall behind Adrian Peterson.

 

I've had him as my No.6 RB until we got confirmation that would be available for Week 1, which was in doubt even though most assumed he would be ready. I don't see my ranking of him changing too much on this news, but he will drop into Tier2 and maybe a spot behind Elliott.

 

 

There is a legit question whether he can stay away from stuff that will cause him to fail tests again at this point. There are legit physical questions surrounding how his body performs following rehab as well as questions about on-going injury history. Minus 4 games..............................much better risk reward plays at that point in the draft, has to be dropped much further IMO......... but to each his own.

 

Edit: Oh, and legit questions about his truthfulness while I'm at it. Why would he so emphatically lie about there being any issue after the report a month ago. There's like 100 ways to avoid or skirt that question so as not to call your own integrity into question at a later date...which you know is coming........don't get it.


In Topic: Is there anyone after round 3/4 you think will produce like a 1st?

17 July 2016 - 10:04 PM

 Some of the guys mentioned will have a nice year and be values where they are drafted, but of all the names listed Donte Moncreif is the guy I would be least surprised at achieving 1st round worthy stats for 2016, he may do it.


In Topic: What are you guys doing with the 4 pick?

06 July 2016 - 08:32 AM

Yes. Honestly thats the answer. Yes.

 

Damn, 6th overall is looking like the best pick this year. Get a top guy plus an earlier 2nd. Hell, even 7th is looking sexy if you are a Zeke fan. Get your top guy at no.7? OK!

 

I agree, having done a couple of money drafts already..........not those silly mocks.

 

Its not even about just the 1st round, I really like what that slot gets the best in the tiers I have all the way through the 6th round.