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Member Since 01 Sep 2004
Offline Last Active Yesterday, 03:59 PM

Posts I've Made

In Topic: Would you rather have.....

17 May 2018 - 12:15 PM

  I play in Dynasty Leagues and the S. Barkley stuff is getting flat out crazy.  I have seen him traded for 3 premium players, two very good players and a first round rookie pick and even another top RB and two WR2's.  Talk about the hype train leaving the building.  I've been playing this game for 25 years and have never seen a rookie so in demand.  Never.


  That being said, and this is a topic on the message board of a league I'm in, which of these two groups would you rather have.  I thought it was an easy decision, but now I'm not so sure. 


  Group A:  DeAndre Hopkins on a roster that took 2nd place overall last season, but is in need of a running back, as the only two are Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara.  Wr's are all WR2's outside of Hopkins. 


  Group B:  The first overall pick in the rookie draft (Barkley), E. Sanders (WR Denver) and the #1 pick in the Devy Draft which gives you the #1 pick of any player in college football in 2019 (likely Bryce Love). 


  At first, I chose Hopkins.  Now I'm second guessing that choice as a team loaded with Kamara, Cook, Barkley and Love would be unbelievable in a league where you can start 3 RB's. 



  What say you?  The league is split as this is a trade that was offered to a guy in our league.  Of the 12 owners, 7 voted to keep Hopkins. 



Group B................... and not close for me.



I could see it being close for others AND the specific rule set is key to the valuation of the pieces.


In a league with deep rosters a player like Sanders could have strong value.................... whereas in a league that has short rosters or cuts to short off-season rosters, Sanders may not have that much value above the WW pool in dynasty terms.


Similarly true of that devy pick to some extent, depending on the specifics, could have a wide range of values. 


Pretty sure if you think its crazy now prepare to be further shocked. Barkley is going to make the kind of wow plays that keep his exploits on the highlight reels from Day 1, thus continuously hyped regardless of whether his overall production initially warrants the values.

In Topic: Instant Fantasy Analysis - RB Derrius Guice, Redskins

17 May 2018 - 10:07 AM

Heard another FF podcast yesterday and their "sources" around the league felt that the information released about his potential "issues" were likely false and potentially leaked by one of the teams he outed for asking inappropriate questions during the interviews as retaliation. 


They were more concerned that if he actually had missed flights and meeting times then that would be a red flag, but they seem to downplay any of the unsubstantiated character issues around him.  Most were drafting him at overall 2 or overall 3 in dynasty rookie drafts.



But couldn't those be indicative of a pattern of "character issues" themselves being quoted?


Most teams won't tolerate late to meetings let alone missing a scheduled flight because that's a big part of the day to day business of being a professional athlete, and its one that affects not just the player but managing the team as a whole. While sh@t happens to everyone from time to time there can be a pattern of behavior that makes an incident out of character with some big picture, and with others not.


We aren't privy to what teams know when it comes to the personal life of top prospects other than dribs and drabs that make it into the media. 


When I watch Guice on tape I see the best pure 2 down RB in the draft (yeah better than Barkley in that aspect) who may or may not have untapped potential in the passing game as well. I find it hard to believe he fell as far as he did without real reasons beyond on field performance for all those teams that drafted a RB ahead of him so its easy for me to personally consider there is more here than meets the eye.


In terms of homework since the draft as I recommended all should do, here is all I have found.....so far. 


Its possible the ".........on-going investigation that could prove embarrassing to the player and the team that drafts him" was a reference to the report (link below) which sites the NFL could find no evidence of Guice' claims that teams asked him some very loaded questions.................and if that is the case it means he not only made those things up and attributed them as happening to him, but he relayed those falsehoods to a reporter. 





Rhymes with and or shades of Michael Bennett?


I found it particularly odd that the Seahawks were willing to draft a 1st round RB but chose to pass on Guice. IMO Guice is a perfect fit for the profile I have known the Seahawks to prefer in the past. I could be wrong in my eval of Guice course, its possible I could be wrong in my eval of Penny relative to Guice, its possible they changed their idea of what constitutes ideal........but maybe they saw a little too much Bennett and it spooked them for an investment that high.


Whether someone considers that type of behavior to be an issue or not depends on your personal perspective, but importantly we have a lack of additional information to make a judgement on whether this is a pattern of behavior or completely out of character.


All that said, I think its perfectly acceptable to take Guice as high as 1.02 in drafts if people have done their homework and make the calculation...........what I was saying is until more was known break ties in favor of another prospect people rate as highly. Enough time has now passed that it doesn't appear there is more to come in a worst case kind of way, though neither is that completely off the table. It doesn't mean there isn't risk involved with taking Guice over some others, off field should be an important part of the calculus when thinking about a prospect over the course of a career as opposed to a season. Every choice made that high in a rookie draft is a cost benefit choice, don't forget to invest in Guice, an owner is also passing on the other players available in the draft and likely the opportunity to turn the pick into a different asset/s.


Dynasty FF is a series of risk - reward calculations that span years and every owner makes their own call as to what is an acceptable risk-reward at the price.

In Topic: why isnt anyone signing Decker?

10 May 2018 - 08:20 PM

I love the player Decker used to be


His value to an NFL team now is unlikely to translate to FF relevance

In Topic: Offseason Arrests 2018

02 May 2018 - 07:34 PM

Robby makes the list again. At least I think an arrest warrant qualifies.........




"An arrest warrant has been issued for Robby Anderson stemming from a misdemeanor reckless driving charge in Florida."

In Topic: Instant Fantasy Analysis - RB Derrius Guice, Redskins

27 April 2018 - 08:13 PM

1.02 in rookie



If you are drafting right away be careful..............on TV they were giving multiple reasons he fell including an allusion to an "ongoing investigation that could prove very embarrassing to him and the the team that drafts him".


Shortly after he was taken a different commentator says there is no question he will show his ability "when he makes it onto the field"................there is more going on here than we know about for him to have that many RBs taken ahead of him.


Just saying do your work and/or break ties in favor of another prospect you rate as highly until all is revealed.