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lesjroza

Member Since 01 Sep 2004
Offline Last Active Yesterday, 10:44 AM
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Posts I've Made

In Topic: Under the radar?

19 June 2017 - 08:06 PM

Les also liked Charles Johnson (WR, MIN) a couple years back for similar reasons. Not throwing shade, rather making the point that these are dart throws and they work out 10-20% of the time on average.

 

 

Maybe less..............some will be a Tyrell Williams, Julian Edleman, etc, most will not. The key is if the news flow doesn't continue positively move on. I wouldn't call 'em dart throws although I think I know what you mean. If you pick up a guy based on talent plus situation/news flow it helps define the reasons for holding....and the reasons to eventually drop.


In Topic: Under the radar?

19 June 2017 - 02:15 PM

Who do you think may have a good season, but isn't currently being discussed?  I've heard name like Kevin White, Robert Woods, Marcus Wheaton, Phillip Dorsett and some others thrown around online, but is there anyone you would trade for right now that is currently being valued at next-to-nothing?

 

OK, I do have one valued at next to nothing but I wouldn't trade for him. The good news is you probably don't have to, there's a good chance he is on your WW so the cost is a roster slot. You pick him up and if the steady drum beat of good news does not continue you drop him for an early season WW gem.

 

Ricardo Louis, Browns

 

4th round pick last year

 

4.43 40 @ 6'2 215 lbs

 

18 reps on the bench press, 38 in vertical and 132 in broad jump a top quartile finisher in all.

 

A top 10 WR athlete in last years class within spitting distance of Corey Coleman and Josh Doctson in my own athletic metrics.

 

Yes, I know its the Browns and they have no QB but............... the targets in Clev are completely up for grabs IMO. I like Coleman but he keeps getting hurt and in any case he is more of a big play guy than target hog. Clev could be playing from behind a lot so may have a fair amount tgt pie to divide. The #1 WR tgt at this point appears to be Kenny Britt so there is certainly room for a young guy to make noise.

 

Look at the recent news for yourself, but R.L. has been flashing all off-season and beat writers do project him now as the #3.

 

He will train with Brandon Marshall this summer and also "hopes" to link up with Andre Johnson and Antonio Brown.

 

(In other news I hope my wife will pardon me to link up with Kate Upton this summer :))

 

All joking aside this is the kind of news flow/situation you want in a developmental prospect.

 

I couldn't find Doug's commentary on him from the '16 draft but I'd be curious to know what he thought/thinks of R.L. as a prospect. There's a lot to like IMO.


In Topic: Trade value for Sterling Shepard?

13 June 2017 - 11:29 AM

Victor Cruz had 72 targets last season

Rashad Jennings had 42 targets last season.

Will Tye had 70 targets last season.

 

Two of those guys are gone and the other's role (in the passing game) is likely massively diminished this upcoming season. The Giants have been in the top-10 in the NFL in passing attempts the last three seasons.

 

Let's also remember that tight ends don't come into the NFL guns a blazing. Since 1980, only six tight ends have caught 50+ passes his rookie season. Only 23 have even caught 40 passes their rookie season. Engram isn't going to factor in much this year.

 

There's plenty of targets available to accommodate Marshall into the offense and still maintain Shepard's production as well. Shepard was arguably (if there's really any argument) the second best route running prospect entering the draft last year behind Michael Thomas.

 

The Giants ran 92% of their offense using 11 personnel (1 RB, 1TE, and 3WR). There's been blurbs saying that the team is going to use 2TE sets more. Well, considering that they ran 3WR sets by 16% more than the NEXT closest team, I think it's safe to say that Shepard isn't going to really lose playing time.

 

Long story short, Shepard is entering year 2. His perceived value is at it's lowest point. He's an easy buy at his price point. If I could give up a pick like 2.02 for him, I'd do it all day every day.

 

This is a nicely written view of the bullish case for Shepard Giraldi.

 

I'll play Devil's advocate though in reality I'm probably more somewhere in the middle.

 

The bearish case

 

Sterling Shepard is only a slightly above average athlete. To my recollection you would find most post combine/ pre NFL draft ranks with him as an end of the 1st top of the 2nd round rookie draft. During the NFL draft process however S.S. was boosted similarly to the way McCaffrey was this year, in consideration of his NFL bloodlines and solid/strong college production.

 

Post NFL draft that rise continued in rookie drafts as he ended up in what was considered a terrific spot for FF production coming in as a defacto #2 to ODB and a theoretically good fit for the offense. The thesis that S.S would be the new Cobb in the McAdoo offense made the rounds and his rookie draft ADP kept rising.

 

The Cobb comparison had flaws, however. SS. is not the same athlete, and he didn't have Arod throwing to him. Guys with S.S. athletic profile can be productive with volume, but the "average athlete/great route runners" don't carry the same weight as when they have ultra accurate QBs throwing the ball to them. At 5'10 with 30 3/4 inch arms SS presents a small catch radius. He is also not a contested catch guy, the ball needs to be accurate and on time in order to take advantage of his skill set.........I don't think the Giants situation was what it appeared to some to begin with IMO because of Eli. Not because Eli is bad necessarily, but because he has the wrong skills to mesh with what S.S. does well.

 

I would personally go as far as to say the lack of other targets in NY actually allowed S.S. to have a far better year 1 than he probably should have had and in terms of production he is as likely to decline from here as to rise.  BMarsh as well as Engram both present the bigger catch radius more suited to Eli IMO.

 

From a dynasty perspective the 1st round choice spent on Engram in particular has to give pause if you thought Shepard was locked into the long term future feature receiver at the slot position in NY. Its hard to imagine the Giants truly see Engram as an in line TE (they'd be pretty much alone if that was the case) which means he was drafted as a pass catcher, likely lining up most often in the slot whether now or for the future. Its nice to have multiple different weapons to find mismatches etc, but remember, this was a 1st round pick which connotes more than a luxury.

 

A big chunk of SS stats were as a result of 8 TDS from which he will almost certainly regress with the new pass catchers on board due to their more red zone suited skill set combined with S.S. lacking big play athleticism.

 

Bottom line on trade value, if a league drafted late spring or into the summer, S.S may have been going as high as top 5 in which case most owners aren't going to be willing to trade him for his current "startup" value given he didn't flop statistically yr 1 so I doubt many transactions are happening. I think his future dynasty value is very much dependent on the QB of the future in NY. If its highly accurate West Coast type QB, I could see SS getting the volume he needs to put up successful FF stats in the future, but to me even at his current startup price (which you likely can't get a trade done at), there are tons of more interesting risk/reward targets. I don't own him anywhere and I am not seeking him out as a trade target at all though I often try to buy "fallen angels" at a discount when possible.


In Topic: 2017 Projections & Rankings

06 June 2017 - 11:22 AM

 

 

Am I the only one that loves Pierre Garcon?  :dunno:

 

No!

 

Due to likely team game scripts/situation and pass catcher depth chart I have been scooping him where I can at current prices..............but at the same time when it seems too easy there usually turns out to be a valid reason.

 

Buried somewhere in all the Carlos Hyde beat reporter hate I think I remember an observation along the lines of Garcon has done nothing to stand out in OTAs so its possible we may really have to count primarily on the volume at this point.


In Topic: Who to take at pick 4?

18 May 2017 - 05:09 PM

His DUI was last offseason. If he didn't get suspended by now, I doubt it's happening

 

The NFL punishment was always considered likely to be in '17 to my recollection. Its why I never picked him up in the dynasty leagues he was on the WW for the off-season.