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Member Since 01 Sep 2004
Online Last Active Today, 04:58 PM

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In Topic: Instant Fantasy Analysis - RB Todd Gurley, Rams

01 May 2015 - 10:02 AM

- 250 touches and double digit TDs this season for the Rams ... book it.



Wow. I hope people still think this in August when redrafts roll but I doubt it. I think its close to 80% Gurley starts on PUP,  meaning he misses the first 6 weeks min.


I'm not sure he will be anywhere near game shape and he will have been struggling to catch up from lack of reps due to rehab focus.


He may be activated onto the roster somewhere between weeks 6-8 but may not may not be active on gamedays because I doubt they are going to play him on ST which means its going to depend on whether they can fit 3-4 RBs on the game day roster and that's going to depend on how other positions are shaking out, no way of knowing right now.


When he makes it onto the game day roster he will likely be limited to 10 or so touches a game in order to work himself into game shape and those 10 touches will not yet include much passing game work because as noted above he will not have had the opportunity to take the load of reps required for ANY rookie RB to get up to speed on protections and pass blocking in the NFL. Many RBs that appeared capable do not get the opportunity even with all the off-season reps.


Additionally, it would be exceedingly rare for any player to have the previous level of explosion and confidence in cuts at that point in a comeback. Gurley is unlikely to be a significant FF asset until 2016 and this was always the case based on a timeline from his injury. You didn't hear much about it because the dialogue was very controlled due to his draft prospects but it will become more clear at some point this summer.


I put the over under at 125 touches only because I can go that high, guys will still want to take the over.


My best guess right now is 80-90 touches in 2015, but leaving room for adjustment to how the rehab plays out.

In Topic: So who is the #1 pick in FF?

25 April 2015 - 05:48 PM

Yeah I don't think I'd complain with either one. Or..just try to get Dez and then draft Matt Ryan later so you can have a piece of both :)


Agreed except I'd flip it. Get Julio....... then Romo later.


I don't necessarily think the overall passing volume will be up in Atlanta so much as Julio's share.

In Topic: So who is the #1 pick in FF?

25 April 2015 - 05:35 PM



Close, but its Julio


In 7 years as an OC Kyle Shanhan has had four 1,000-yd WRs. Andre Johnson twice, Pierre Garcon and Santana Moss.

The #1 WRs in Shanahan’s seasons as OC average 138 targets per year which includes a 67 tgt season from Garcon

during a run-heavy 2012, RG3’s rookie year. Take it out, and the number jumps to 150.


Julio is going to flat blow up this year in that division with the Falcons schedule which is one of the most FF friendly.  

In Topic: Time to trade Megatron?

12 April 2015 - 05:35 PM

I'm still shopping him. I have an offer on the table for picks 1.3 and 1.8, I should get at least one legit young WR with those picks. Calvin is hard to let go though. 


The offer on the table is a fair market price (pending league settings, scoring, similarities of course) FWIW.


Calvin went for 1.08 and 1.09 in one league I am in................ and 1.04 Plus Jarvis Landry for Calvin plus a small bump in the 2nd in another league I am in

In Topic: Time to trade Megatron?

11 April 2015 - 02:11 PM

I'm skimming all the reply's and I'm not sure were the idea of selling low came from. The deal I was looking at was Benjamin and pick 1.02. I don;t think that's selling low. I think it's a pretty good deal. I probably should have jumped on it, but I took to long and the owner backed out. Now I am in talks for a possible deal for Hilton and picks. I'm not a fan of the smallish receivers, and the owner wants to give me a 2nd, not a 1st, so I am on the fence. I'm trying to work out another throw in piece or two to get him to part with the 1.05 pick.  Basically, I think I will trade him if I can get a younger top 15 WR and an early first round pick. I am getting offers close, but they always want m to throw in something else that makes it a little too much. 


I agree, that offer would not have been selling low. There was a time when Calvin commanded a premium above the elite tier of WRs in dynasty and I think some owners feel that selling him for less than that now is selling low.

I think they base that view on the idea that his recent underperformance of expectations is the only reason he is selling for less now and if he has a good year he will reacquire the previous value, but I do not believe that is the case. He may move back to a top WR redraft valuation for 2016 if he has a great year but not in dynasty, no matter how he fares IMO.