*** '07 Player Projections By NFL Team ***

[NAn 39]

To prepare FFTodayers for the upcoming ’07 season, starting 5/14 will post threads listing offensive players by NFL team and invite posters to attach projections to each offensive player.

Posting of just commentary on one or mutliple players, instead of projections is welcomed and encouraged as well.

 

Will post 3 team threads per week (2 during 4th of July week) alphabetically by team city, so will have all 32 NFL teams posted before August 1st.

Through beginning of FF season will hopefully have this thread pinned as an ‘Archives’ thread, so will have opportunity to post replies for any previous team at any time.

 

Player Projections By NFL Team: Archives Thread Link

Carolina Panthers: Team/Player Statistical History Link

 

CAROLINA PANTHERS

 

’06 Statistics

 |---------- PASSING -----------||----- RUSHING -----|  TOTAL 
		  CMP  ATT   YD	YPA   TD INT  ATT   YD	YPA  TD	 YD   
		  325  539  3486   6.47  19  17  423  1659  3.92   7   5145
NFL rank --->  12   10   14	 22   18  17   24   24	19   29	 24
QB
| Name				 |  G | CMP ATT   PCT YARD  Y/A TD IN | RSH YARD TD |
| Jake Delhomme		| 13 | 263 431  61.0 2805  6.5 17 11 |  18   12  0 |
| David Carr		   | 16 | 302 442  68.3 2767  6.3 11 12 |  54  193  2 |

RB
| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |
| DeShaun Foster	   | 14 |  227   897   4.0   3  |   32   159   5.0   0 |
| DeAngelo Williams	| 13 |  121   501   4.1   1  |   33   313   9.5   1 |
WR
| Steve Smith		  | 14 |	8	61   7.6   1  |   83  1166  14.0   8 |
?????
TE
| Kris Mangum		  | 14 |   21   170   8.1   1 |
| Michael Gaines	   | 16 |   15   146   9.7   0 |

Notes:

OC: Jeff Davidson (formerly w/ CLE) is the new OC, and promises to bring a more dynamic offense w/ a zone blocking scheme.

QB JDelhomme: ’06 worst year statistically since joining Panthers as starter in most categories, also missed 3 games in ‘06

QB DCarr: brought in as a FA to be backup, but could he possibly start if Delhomme falters?

RB DFoster: Has yet to play 16 games in 4 year career, but has had over 800 yds rushing both of the last two years.

RB DWilliams: ’06 had impressive rookie season in limited duty

WR: With cutting Keyshawn, CAR loses a 70 rec possession WR, responsible for 42 of their first downs.

 

Key Questions For '07 Season:

RBs: What will be carry(overall/rz/gl)/rec distribution between DFoster and DWilliams and how will the zone blocking system work out.

WR SSmith: Hammy problem a thing of the past? Can he shoulder the load in the pass game again?

WRs: Who will be the #2 WR going into the year? Carter? Colbert? the rookie Jarrett? and will the #2 be able to take enough heat of SSmith so he's not constantly double and triple covered?

 

Bonus: Homer Commentary Courtesy of 'famousb'

On offense the Panthers OL was decimated by injuries early last year, and never fully recovered. The weak OL showed through in the performance in the rest of the offense as the Panthers had one of the worst red zone conversion and 3rd down conversion rates in the league. A few additions to the OL, including the rookie from USC (4-year starter) center Kalil who is well versed in zone blocking, should help this OL in overall depth as well as ability. DeAngelo Williams is already excited about the new plays and the zone blocking scheme getting implemented this year, and if he and Foster take well to the one-cut-and-go theory of the zb scheme, CAR's running game could be back on track this year.

 

On defense the Panthers were extremely dissapointing to fantasy owners last year. Projected to be a top5 fantasy defense by many, the early loss of their MLB Dan Morgan (concussions) adversely effected their cover-2 scheme and it showed in both their pass coverage and run stopping abilities. But what hurt fantasy owners most, was their lack of ability to force turnovers. In 2005 the Panthers were 4th in the NFL in INTs, in 2006 they were 22nd; and their special teams weren't very special either. With the drafting of a 1st RD LB, as well as a DE to complement their already deep DL, and also a college star return man, the Panthers D should step back up in all the categories that matter most to fantasy footballers.

[famousb 11]

NAn, what happened to the edited one??

[NAn 39]

NAn, what happened to the edited one??

 

Sorry again man...got caught up at work here for a minute.

 

fixored.

[jocstrap 8]

This team is a puzzle. Going from a superbowl contender to not so good in a two year span. Famousb has some very nice points in his hommerism quotes. The #1 ff option on this team is obviously Steve Smith. I think he will continue to get doubled and tripled team UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE. I hope Jarrett can step in there and actual gain the respect of the safeties but this might take 5 games before it's done. Carter and Colbert just don't do it for me. I was on the Foster Bandwagon last year (just look at predictions below) and hopefully I'm just one year off. Williams sure was great at Memphis and I think in his second year should have some pretty nice games. This could be your 50/50 exact split rbbc making it a mess for us FF players.

I wish the Panthers well this year!

 

Delhomme - - 3000 yards 19 td's negative 10 rushing yards

Smith - - - 145 looks 92 receptions 1200 yards 11 touchdowns

Jarrett - - 66 receptions 6 td's

 

I don't think another wr on the team will catch a td

 

Foster - - 925 yards 8 td's

Willaims 650 yards 4 touchdowns 400 receiving yards 2 touchdowns

[famousb 11]

This team is a puzzle. Going from a superbowl contender to not so good in a two year span. Famousb has some very nice points in his hommerism quotes. The #1 ff option on this team is obviously Steve Smith. I think he will continue to get doubled and tripled team UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE. I hope Jarrett can step in there and actual gain the respect of the safeties but this might take 5 games before it's done. Carter and Colbert just don't do it for me. I was on the Foster Bandwagon last year (just look at predictions below) and hopefully I'm just one year off. Williams sure was great at Memphis and I think in his second year should have some pretty nice games. This could be your 50/50 exact split rbbc making it a mess for us FF players.

I wish the Panthers well this year!

 

Delhomme - - 3000 yards 19 td's negative 10 rushing yards

Smith - - - 145 looks 92 receptions 1200 yards 11 touchdowns

Jarrett - - 66 receptions 6 td's

 

I don't think another wr on the team will catch a td

 

Foster - - 925 yards 8 td's

Willaims 650 yards 4 touchdowns 400 receiving yards 2 touchdowns

 

i agree w/ alot of your breakdown too... although i think Colbert/Carter will co-catch a td... cause neither has the hands to catch one by themself...

 

and i like the -10 rush yds for Jake... made me think of the trivia question i just posted on the mange bored...

[Foghorn Leghorn 0]

Delhomme - 3500 yds, 23 TDs

Williams - 1000 yds, 6 TDs, 400 receiving yards

Foster - 500 yds, 2 TDs

 

Smith - 90-1350-9

Jarrett - 45-700-5

Colbert + Carter - 60-800-6

[MahSoonerz 0]

famousb's analysis is spot on. I am not too big on guessing actual numbers, but it's a safe bet that Dwayne Jarrett can come close to Keyshawn's numbers from last year. One thing I have learned as a Panthers' homer is that our TEs have next to no FF value as long as Coach Fox is in town, and I don't expect that to change with the new OC. The Williams-Foster RBBC mirrors Jacksonville's tandem in my view - they will both see a lot of action over the next couple years, with the young guy slowly but steadily growing into the workhorse role. Which means I think Williams will be somewhat undervalued in redraft scenarios this year.

 

One situation to watch, as NAn notes, is if Delhomme gets yanked for Carr at any point. Now, you and me and all right thinking people find this concept laughable, and yet it's clear Carr was brought in to compete and Delhomme is on a short leash. Coach Fox is a loyal guy so Delhomme will probably get more slack than say, Jake Plummer, but still our Jake playing 16 games is by no means guaranteed.

 

If you play IDP, Julius Peppers is someone I am targeting high. FFToolbox put it best, "This freak of nature has averaged over 10 sacks per game since coming into the league, yet Julius Peppers still shows signs of unexplored potential. If there's a defensive player in the league right now who's most capable of having a record-breaking season, it's Julius Peppers." I couldn't agree more.

[Steel City Blues 0]

famousb's analysis is spot on. I am not too big on guessing actual numbers, but it's a safe bet that Dwayne Jarrett can come close to Keyshawn's numbers from last year. One thing I have learned as a Panthers' homer is that our TEs have next to no FF value as long as Coach Fox is in town, and I don't expect that to change with the new OC. The Williams-Foster RBBC mirrors Jacksonville's tandem in my view - they will both see a lot of action over the next couple years, with the young guy slowly but steadily growing into the workhorse role. Which means I think Williams will be somewhat undervalued in redraft scenarios this year.

 

One situation to watch, as NAn notes, is if Delhomme gets yanked for Carr at any point. Now, you and me and all right thinking people find this concept laughable, and yet it's clear Carr was brought in to compete and Delhomme is on a short leash. Coach Fox is a loyal guy so Delhomme will probably get more slack than say, Jake Plummer, but still our Jake playing 16 games is by no means guaranteed.

 

If you play IDP, Julius Peppers is someone I am targeting high. FFToolbox put it best, "This freak of nature has averaged over 10 sacks per game since coming into the league, yet Julius Peppers still shows signs of unexplored potential. If there's a defensive player in the league right now who's most capable of having a record-breaking season, it's Julius Peppers." I couldn't agree more.

 

160 sacks in a season from Peppers would be better than having the entire Chicago D. I'm taking Peppers or Carolina D in the first round of my drafts.

 

 

Delhomme - 3050 yds & 20 TDs (13 INT)

Williams - 924 yds & 4 TD, 350 rec yds & 1 TD

Foster - 550 yds & 1 TD, 260 rec yds

 

Smith - 86-1200-10

Jarrett - 61-585-6

 

TE - non factor

[MahSoonerz 0]

told ya he was a freak

[famousb 11]

160 sacks in a season from Peppers would be better than having the entire Chicago D. I'm taking Peppers or Carolina D in the first round of my drafts.

Delhomme - 3050 yds & 20 TDs (13 INT)

Williams - 924 yds & 4 TD, 350 rec yds & 1 TD

Foster - 550 yds & 1 TD, 260 rec yds

 

Smith - 86-1200-10

Jarrett - 61-585-6

 

TE - non factor

 

first, saying the TE is a non-factor is giving him (whoever the heck it is) too much credit...

 

the two things i see that i don't necessarily agree w/ about your projections both concern the RBs; first, you only have them getting 5 total rushing TDs. Although that is more than they got last year, i think last year was a really bad year for the CAR O all-around, especially in red-zone conversion and 3rd down conversion... i'd look for something closer to 10-12 combined... JMHO...

second, i think Foster ends up higher than most people are giving him credit for. He's had back to back almost 900 yd seasons rushing, and Fox is just way too loyal to sit him... also add in the fact that they just paid him $3 mil cash for the next season, and you can be pretty certain he's going to get some pt...

his cap hit for the '08 season is going to be $8 mil, so it's either make-or-break time for Foster cause he's not sticking around for that salary, and if he wants a long-term restructure, he's going to have to show that he is worth it...

[Steel City Blues 0]

first, saying the TE is a non-factor is giving him (whoever the heck it is) too much credit...

 

the two things i see that i don't necessarily agree w/ about your projections both concern the RBs; first, you only have them getting 5 total rushing TDs. Although that is more than they got last year, i think last year was a really bad year for the CAR O all-around, especially in red-zone conversion and 3rd down conversion... i'd look for something closer to 10-12 combined... JMHO...

second, i think Foster ends up higher than most people are giving him credit for. He's had back to back almost 900 yd seasons rushing, and Fox is just way too loyal to sit him... also add in the fact that they just paid him $3 mil cash for the next season, and you can be pretty certain he's going to get some pt...

his cap hit for the '08 season is going to be $8 mil, so it's either make-or-break time for Foster cause he's not sticking around for that salary, and if he wants a long-term restructure, he's going to have to show that he is worth it...

 

 

As a betting man, I'd take the over on the rushing TDs too. Much hinges on the OL play & the return of Wharton. If this unit comes together, the rushing game could return to the glory of the Stephen Davis days.

 

The other key is the offensive play calling. This team played the role of a pass to win team last season. The ground game lost impetus and failed to score a rushing TD in 6 straight games from week 11 to 16. That's a trend not a quirk.

 

This team lacks a franchise RB to carry the load.

 

The benefactor will be the big WR Jarrett. This is a guy I will keep my eye on. Double & triple teams on Smith will leave Jarrett free. If he develops a great relationship with Delhomme (and/or Carr?) early, I'm plucking this guy off the WW.

[mdm_1971 0]

ok

jake ------- 23 tds 14 td 3300 yards

ssmith ------- 96 rec. 1300 yrds 12 tds

jarrett ---- i could see maybe something like 65 850 yrds and 6 tds

foster ---- 975 ------ 6tds

williams------ 850-------- 8 total tds