Kellen Winslow

[karmarooster 0]

so kellen winslow (he's a soldier) is the consensus #2 for the geek rankings. I see him and Witten as TEs 1a and 1b. Can anyone convince me why Winslow won't be 1 of the 2 TEs in Tier 1?

 

Here's some info:

Last year Kellen had 148 targets, converting 55% into receptions for 82 catches. He averaged 13.5 YPC for 1100 yards and also had 5 TDs.

 

Lets assume Winslow has 140 targets next year. And lets assume he improves his catch rate up to 60%, as I've read he has been tearing it up and catching everything his way in camp. And for the YPC, let's call it 12.5.

 

That gives him numbers like this: 84 receptions, 1050 yards, and i don't care much about predicting TDs. Call it 5.

 

On the other hand, lets say he gets 150 targets, catches 65%, and maintains a 13.5 YPC. then his stats would like this: 97 receptions, 1300 yards, and what have you for TDs.

 

So there's a range: 84/1000 - 97/1300.

 

Can any hater out there prove to me that he won't be in this range? by the way my own prediction is over 90 for catches, but 1100-1200 yards.

 

I know there's the issue of microfracture surgery, but by all accounts I've read from camp he is fully recovered and participating in drills, including 2xdays.

 

call it drinking the kool-aid, but please back it up.

[Mephisto 15]

The difference between the #1 TE and the #2 TE in most, if not all leagues is RAT'S ASS!!! Flip a Goddamned coin.

[karmarooster 0]

The difference between the #1 TE and the #2 TE in most, if not all leagues is RAT'S ASS!!! Flip a Goddamned coin.

 

i'm not posting this to consider whether Winslow OR Witten will be the overall TE1. i'm debating whether Winslow will be in the top 2.

 

and please don't swear at me. completely unnecessary, i posted a thoughtful thread and this is how you respond. thank you, sir.

[9-Route 0]

the hate is due to his horrid TD counts. he has a career rec/TD count of 22.0 [8career TDs on 176 career recs].

 

the other tight ends look like tomlinson next to him:

 

[dallas clark 7.2, gates 7.9, walls 8.3, cooley 8.6, crumpler 9.0, gonzo 12.4, sharpe 13.1]

[Ras66not99 0]

I'm a Browns homer and I can't change your mind... I love the guy this year...

[karmarooster 0]

the hate is due to his horrid TD counts. he has a career rec/TD count of 22.0 [8career TDs on 176 career recs].

 

the other tight ends look like tomlinson next to him:

 

[dallas clark 7.2, gates 7.9, walls 8.3, cooley 8.6, crumpler 9.0, gonzo 12.4, sharpe 13.1]

 

 

you have a point about TDs. this year 6-10 TDs could be possible for winslow, even tho he only had 3 and 5 the last two years. i think he only has better stats in a PPR league... in a standard league he's no better than clark, gates, cooley, crump, etc.

 

does any know more about the microfracture surgery? i searched for it on google and the results were about a surgery before the 2007 season. i thought maybe he had surgery again during this most recent off season.

 

anyone think dallas clark will be better? cooley? i dont expect them to get 80+ catches, more like 50-70 and they should score good TD numbers based on what you said. that would be 8 TDs for cooley, 10 for clark based on 70 catches with the number you gave.

 

winslow should at least be able to get 5 TDs this year. and if he gets 20 more receptions for 150+ more yards. 35 points. for cooley or clark type TE, etxtra TDS would be 18-30 points. so not that much of a difference really, unless winslow upped his TD number to 8 or so.

 

projections:

winslow - 85/1150/6

cooley/clark - 70/900/10

 

thats 15 and 25 points more for winslow on receptions and yardage, but 24 points from extra TDs from cooley/clark. 16 more points for winslow overall. 1 per game.

[pimptastic69 0]

Winslow=Gates=Witten.

 

It's a crapshoot. They're all #1 in my rankings. Does it really matter witch one you pick?

[karmarooster 0]

i'm trying to figure out when they become value picks.

[pimptastic69 0]

i'm trying to figure out when they become value picks.

 

You always overpay for Gates, so this year you'll be overpaying for Witten and Winslow as well. It'll prolly cost you at least a 4th rounder to get one of these guys.

 

To be honest, I usually do it. I've had Gates on all of my teams for the last 2 years, and it usually costs me a 3rd round pick.

 

Not this year though. It seems like there's a lot more depth than usual at the TE position this year.

[karmarooster 0]

well im talking about a 10 team league, but i wouldnt take witten or gates until the 4th or 5th. certainly witten is worth it in the 4th to 5th, but i dunno about winslow. in the 3rd? no way.

[pimptastic69 0]

well im talking about a 10 team league, but i wouldnt take witten or gates until the 4th or 5th. certainly witten is worth it in the 4th to 5th, but i dunno about winslow. in the 3rd? no way.

 

I'm in 10 team leagues also. All I'm saying is that if you want one of these cats, you'll have to overpay for them. And it's likely someone else in your league will overpay for them in the 3rd round.

 

It's a luxury. If you want the best, you have to pay for it.

[murf74 461]

Pick the guy with the healthy knees.

 

HTH

[WhiteWonder 2,693]

winslow had something like 18 red zone targets last year and only converted 5 into TD's.

 

should those targets stay the same or go up i see a few more TD's his way... 8 or 9 maybe?

[sirensong 111]

the hate is due to his horrid TD counts. he has a career rec/TD count of 22.0 [8career TDs on 176 career recs].

 

the other tight ends look like tomlinson next to him:

 

[dallas clark 7.2, gates 7.9, walls 8.3, cooley 8.6, crumpler 9.0, gonzo 12.4, sharpe 13.1]

 

the question is whether this is a situational phenomenon or a systemic phenomenon. TEs usually have a higher ratio than WRs because of the nature of red zone defense and the ability of a TE to get "lost" in coverage, especially with play action. the OP seems to be falling into the trap of projecting TDs without considering the offensive system and how winslow fits into it. the numbers seem to indicate that he's a "between the 20s" producer within the system, as opposed to other TEs who get more looks and more action inside the 20. i can't really comment on this because i'm not too familiar with the browns offense, but i'd be interested to hear about it from browns homers.

 

is there an emphasis on getting the ball to the TE inside the 10? is there too much emphasis, causing overcoverage? is winslow succesful at finding holes in the zone? is he just getting missed by the QB?

 

these are important questions that must be answered before anyone can project TD numbers for winslow.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Has nothing to do with 'hate'. How i see it:

 

#1. Whitten

 

 

 

 

#2. Winslow (knees)

#3. Gates (foot)

 

Hard to tell WHEN Gates will start his season.........hard to tell IF Winslow will complete his.

 

Personally, if I can't get Whitten where i want him, I'm waithing til 8+ round TE value. There is a very strong TE class this year - lot's of potential all the way from Whitten to Zack Miller (not to mention a certain deep sleeper TE who will get some Brett Favre TD targets).