Blockbuster Trade for Gurley?

[erikthebassist 41]

Regular scoring, 6 point qb td's

We start 2 RB's and 4 catchers (Wr/TE)

10 team / 18 man roster - so not much on waivers

 

I offered Megatron and Cobb with any RB off my roster except L Bell for Gurley

He's considering it.

He Picked McFadden up off of waivers last night ahead of me.

I'm 4-3, only 2 teams are 5-2

He's also 4-3

With Robinson and Clay on bye I'd have to start some waiver wire scrub at wr/te this week but after that I'm pretty good to go.

 

My questions:

 

Is Cobb going to continue to under perform? Is CJ going to stay on a hot streak?

Is the upgrade from Yeldon / Lewis enough to justify losing Cobb and CJ?

 

My Roster:

 

Tmobile

Fitz

Wilson

 

Bell

Yeldon

Lewis

Starks

Darkwa

D Williams

 

Megatron

Cobb

Edelmann

Diggs

A Robinson

Olsen

Clay

 

His Team:

 

E Manning

Bradford

Mariota

 

Gurley

McCoy

Lacy

McFadden

Blue

K Williams

 

AJ Green

M Evans

James Jones

Maclin

A Johnson

Cruz

Woods

 

 

 

 

 

[erikthebassist 41]

Cobb & CJ = Combined 19.9 APG (But really Cobb isn't even a starter anymore since I grabbed diggs so you could look at this as only 10.4 APG)

So really my loss is that I'm starting Olsen or clay instead of CJ, which is a whopping -.4 pts per game to me for olsen, about 4 pts for clay, but clays #'s will improve with tmobile back

 

Gurley = 19.6 APG

replaces yeldon / lewis = 13 / 13.75 if I'm throwing out early / injured performances, so let's call it an expected APG of around 13.5

 

I gain 6 ish APG, not huge and I lose some depth, if I have an injury at WR, let's say worst case I lose my top guy robinson, now I'm looking at starting olsen and Clay every week

 

Starter wrs APG right now = 47.89 combined

Starter APG worst case injury would be = 44.6

3.4 apg loss

 

Starter wrs apg worse case after trade = 40.46

3.9 apg loss

 

So really, even if I imagine making the trade and suffering some big injury to my wr's, I'm still looking at a net 4ish APG overall gain.

 

That's how you analyze a trade folks. I say I should do it. Anyone disagree for any particular reason?

 

I'm do the same analysis for his team but I doubt he's going to dig that deep and he has a lot of potential / unknowns at his RB slots with the trade. McFadden may or may not become the bell cow in dallas, McCoy may or may not get hot with tmobile back and a week to rest his hammy to full strength. Lacy may or may not turn it on after the bye to heal and the cold weather starting to set in in GB.

 

With the potential Break out of evans does he even still need the help at WR that badly?

 

Should I maybe offer Tmobile and CJ instead? He needs help at QB, I could ride fitz or pick up carr who's out there.

 

Too many questions....

[erikthebassist 41]

one glaring error above, I was taking CJ's over all apg but throwing out yeldon's first three starts, assuming that's the trend and not his potential.

 

If I look at CJ's last three starts also, wow, 14.66 apg

 

so, all of a sudden I only gain about 2 apg, and lose 4 apg under a worse case injury scenario.

 

So this boils down to one question, is Megatron back or isn't he?

[Madler 6]

I don't like the trade. You are going to be awfully week at WR. I would offer Tmobile with one of the WR.

 

Please see mine http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=449964

 

[Jch5407 2]

I would try the TMobile and CJ trade first. That would be a great trade for you. If he declines I still would go with the other trade (CJ, Cobb, RB). Yes you will be losing some depth at WR. But, your other 3 WRs are studs also. So I think that negates alot of what your losing with the other 2. Overall I like it either way. If you can pair Gurley and Bell at RB. That would be amazing. Go for it. I think in the end you will come out one the upside.

 

BTW: Yes that is the way to break down a trade. I need to get better at that. Please help me out with my trade dilemma.

Thanks

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=449991&do=findComment&comment=5570135

[Showboat 256]

I don't think I'd do that trade. Gurley certainly has the look of a stud, but I think Cobb will come around - I mean he still has Aaron throwing him the ball. I think his shoulder has been affecting his game. Hopefully he healed up a bit during the bye week - but that's the real question no one will be able to answer until Sunday night.

[erikthebassist 41]

I don't think I'd do that trade. Gurley certainly has the look of a stud, but I think Cobb will come around - I mean he still has Aaron throwing him the ball. I think his shoulder has been affecting his game. Hopefully he healed up a bit during the bye week - but that's the real question no one will be able to answer until Sunday night.

 

Well we both agreed to wait until next week anyways to let some stuff work it's self out, which is good for me because if I did it this week I'd have to start some waiver scrub with byes.

[erikthebassist 41]

I threw tmobile, cobb and yeldon or lewis at him for gurley, my main obstacle is that we can have one keeper in this league and he's thinking gurley will be his next year. I also have bell and would only be able to keep one of the two, and I don't think we have a bylaw about predraft keeper trades. We just never thought of it. I'm co commish so maybe I'll float the idea to the league, can we trade away our keeper for next year as part of trade this year? I'd guarantee him gurley next year if it helps me win this year.

[dpbuddha 9]

I threw tmobile, cobb and yeldon or lewis at him for gurley, my main obstacle is that we can have one keeper in this league and he's thinking gurley will be his next year. I also have bell and would only be able to keep one of the two, and I don't think we have a bylaw about predraft keeper trades. We just never thought of it. I'm co commish so maybe I'll float the idea to the league, can we trade away our keeper for next year as part of trade this year? I'd guarantee him gurley next year if it helps me win this year.

I like this a lot. If he goes for it, you're doing pretty well here. I also don't think you can worry too much about the keeper issue...if he is playing for next year then that's his deal, but you're giving him quite a bit to help him out and I think this improves both teams.