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Ray_T

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Posts posted by Ray_T

  1. Posted

    17 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

    "JJ McCarthy has been "struggling" in practice. The coaches gave him an earful as his ball protection has been very poor". 

    - NFL Notifications 

    ok thats the sort of thing that keeps a QB on the bench.

    but it is early in pre season.   Lets see if this is still the case later in the pre season.    sometimes that adjustment to the pro game can be rough.    

    if hes still doing this when they start the pre season games, then I think he will sit as a rookie until late in the season.

  2. Posted

    23 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

    Nobody is worried about Wilson. He already broke out. He's had 1,000+ yards the last 2 seasons with stiffs as QBs. 

    He's extremely undervalued right now 

    what is his ADP looking like?

  3. Posted

    8 hours ago, Super Cubs said:

    Are these the most dreaded words in fantasy football?  

     

    sometimes they are, sometimes they are not.

    Sometimes when someone says this they are not sure what they want for the guy and they dont want to ask too little and rip themselves off.    so if you offer something they want, they may consider it.   so there is opportunity.   but sometimes when they say send an offer they have no plan to trade the guy, they just wanna know what they could get for him.

    that can be frustrating.

    but thats the nature of making a deal sometimes.

     

  4. Posted

    20 hours ago, Super Cubs said:

    As a Texan fan I can honestly say I did not see his 3rd year breakout coming.  Not saying he was going to be  a bust, but a good enough WR not really a breakout candidate. He was often injured in 2022 missing the several games and I never saw anything to make me think he would be more than average at best.  I was curious as to what you saw that I missed.  

    there are a couple signs I look for when looking purely at stats.

    rookies are noted for their inconsistent play, but if the talent is there, they will still occasionally produce.

    Nico, being a 3rd round pick is a guy who you think may develop into a player, but you are not sure about him.     so when I looked I noted as a rookie he had a couple of decent games with a good average yards per catch.  one game with double digit targets (week 14).   while the catch rate wasnt high, he also didnt have great QB play (david Mills/tyrod Taylor)   but week 14 and 18 he had 10 and 8 targets respectively meaning hes either open or (at the very least) hes where hes supposed to be at the time the read was made.   

    and he was rewarded with some reasonable stats.    but not enough to project a breakout in 2022

    so we go into 2022's game log..... once again with Mills at QB its tough to expect much.

    he showed some signs early.  in week 2 targeted 9 times but got 4 catches for 58 yards.  had a couple middling games up to week 5 where he was averaging about 50-60 yards per game.  not bad on limited targets    it doesnt look like much but 60 yards a game works out to 1000 yards over 17 games played  so this is decent production with backup calibre QB.

    then he got hurt.

    while his production was mediocre upon his return, 49, 48, 44 yard games and a 35 yard game, but look at the high # of targets.   even with subpar QB play, you dont get that number of targets at the NFL level unless you are doing something right.   dude is getting open enough to warrant that many targets, its usually only a matter of time until the production follows.  I only watched a couple of his games, but there were a few times he was targeted and the ball was nowhere close to being where it needed to be.  if it had I'm pretty sure his stats would have been more in line with where you want it to be (at least in the games I watched)  

    even so, with a smallish sample size I was reasonably certain with a better QB (and better health) there is a chance he may have broken out in year 2.  but its hard to say for sure.

    year 3.  I will admit I was a big believer in the new guy at QB (Stroud)  I was sure the QB play would be better than wed seen the last 2 years.  I anticipated this kid was ripe for a breakout.   if you refer to the July Mock on fftoday, I took this kid in round 13 and was happy to get him. 

    So I'm not just making stuff up.  I really liked the kid.  and truly felt with good QB play hed be better.  as it turns out he wasnt just better,  he was a whole lot better.   Even better than I thought he'd be.

    so the signs were there.   Maybe I got a little lucky in that I noticed the things I did when watching the small sample size of games, but I felt he passed the eye test to me (which sealed it)

    I took him in every draft/auction I could last year and was well rewarded.

     

     

  5. Posted

    18 minutes ago, Super Cubs said:

    again are you sure you don't have Nico mixed up with someone else?

    nope.  I saw him in some games.   he was getting open.  he flashed plenty.   bad QB made his stats less than they should have been.

  6. Posted

    well, it is a situation where you can find value if the WR slides far enough.

    you certainly dont want to overpay for any Charger WR, but at least one will put up draftable numbers.  Possibly 2.   but there is a whole lot more risk to them.

    for me, Chargers WR are players to target late in the draft if they are still on the board.

  8. Posted

    2 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

    Johnson was at the absolute floor of how you can do in your rookie season and still turn into something as a WR. So it’s possible and I am intrigued, but man, he was so close to being an outright bust 🤏

    well, sometimes this is a function of the coach and O/C  too.   coach lost his job.

    but when a team drafts a player at the college level, they are rarely a finished product.   the rookie camp is designed to get the kid up to speed and teach the nuances of the pro game before training camp arrives.

    if a player doesnt do well as a rookie, sometimes its the player, but sometimes its the coach.

    case in point:

    Goff.   rookie year he was terrible. (I would argue beyond terrible)

    McVay arrives and his production explodes.

    to me that tells me the problem was more with the coaching and less with the player (in that case at least)

  9. Posted

    12 hours ago, weepaws said:

    I think he was underrated. He’s going to challenge for short yardage / goal line work early.  He’s going to be a problem for those that own Williams and over pay for him in redraft. And some posters seem to have a little bit of buyer beware with Williams based on Injury issues, Corum will be tough to remove once he gets it going  imo  

    They don’t always get their rankings right, if they did there would never be a bust or a surprise, ask TBrady. 

    Thanks. 

    no they dont always get the rankings right.

    and sometimes certain skills of a player are invisible because his coach decided not to use him in certain ways.   sometimes thats because the coach had a specialist who took that role or sometimes its because the offense wasnt designed for a player with his skillset.

    Leveon Bell was a good case in point.  nobody imagined that he had the kind of receiving skills that he did on the day he was drafted because his coach never used him extensively as a pass catching back.   he caught passes in college but they came nowhere close to maximizing his skillset.   This was viewed as a potential skill that could be developed for him.   as it turned out the skill was more developed than anyone anticipated.

     

  10. Posted

    14 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

    I am assuming the team won't just be giving up on last year first round pick at WR in Quentin Johnston.  I think Palmer probably leads the team in production but I think it's going to be somewhat evenly split. I don't think Ladd is going to come in and be a fantasy star right away. Not in Harbaughs offense.... but if he does start to click with Herbert, he could be a playable flex.

    Brenden Rice is the one I am most intrigued by. If dad really puts him to work and takes a hands on role in his life/career (he was not really around him growing up)... he will need to show some flashes as a rookie, but there could be something there by year 2 or 3.

    fair comments all.

    and yeah it is tough to expect a rookie to lead the team in receiving.  if he gets 800 yards and 5-6 TD as a rookie I'd say its a very successful rookie campain, but its not WR1 production.

    its likely palmer as the leading WR though there is an outside chance Chark steps up.    but Palmer has to be the highest odds to thrive.

    Quentin Johnson is still a dark horse.   going into his second year,  it feels like we still dont know who he is as a pro yet.

  11. Posted

    52 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

    They will finish dead last in the NFC north this year. Lions, Bears, Packers, Vikes.  

    possible.

    Lions are really good, Bears will be better than last year, Pack are a solid, young team on the rise. 

    as a whole, this could potentially be the best division in nfl

  14. Posted

    On 5/25/2024 at 9:33 AM, Maximum Overkill said:

    Bankruptcy doesn't mean you're broke, it means you have smart accountants 😂 

    not entirely wrong and in some situations (this being one of them) its quite possibly right.  I'm sure hes shuffled off some of his wealth and it is in the hands of some of his family members.

    26 minutes ago, Showboat said:

    It also means means that the people who are owed money get screwed over (and if people invested in/extended credit to AB, maybe that's well deserved).  The person declaring bankruptcy rarely suffers that much (AB may have to trade in his Lamborghini for a Chevy SUV😢).   

    also likely true.

    There is a certain portion of the bankruptcy amount that he will still need to pay off to make restitution to his creditors and there are certain types of debts that are likely exempt from the bankruptcy proceedings (ie. if you owe the govt, in most countries you still owe that money after a bankruptcy though this may be different in the US but I'd be surprised if it was)

    so hes not totally off the hook but there is no doubt hes screwed over some people by going down this road.

  15. Posted

    On 5/25/2024 at 7:20 PM, weepaws said:

    Corum will bit into his work load week one.  K Williams ADP needs to drop a lot for me to be interested, rd2 not low enough.  

    if he was a first round pick, or an early 2nd round pick I'd fully agree with you.  but he was taken 83rd overall and some scouting reports have him as a top notch backup who can develop into a starter eventually.    I dont think the team will have the pressure to play someone drafted at that point in the draft.    Not right away anyhow.   

    but I do think Williams needs to keep his production up to stop the kid from digging into his workload.    the biggest issue is hes a smallish back like Kyren Williams is.   based on performance at the combine I'm guessing the skillset is similar.    so for me, hes likely a true backup.   if he stepped in to play for Kyren Williams on a run play, the offense likely doesnt need to change much (if at all).  on a pass play hes not great on pass pro (yet) and he could use some polish on his route running.   so hes not gonna displace Kyren Williams on passing downs.   They may use him on short yardage due to his propensity to break tackles.   but that is just speculation on my part.

    bottom line is... the kid needs some work before hes ready to really dig into Willams usage.   

    he also had some durability issues that may not translate well to the NFL.    so there are enough question marks that I'd still draft Kyren williams where I said I'd draft him.   but I do agree there is more risk here than what most people are acknowledging.   Its just my belief that the kid will take at least a half season before hes ready to start taking significant reps at the pro level. (maybe a full season).

    problem is... with this kind of player its hard to say just how quickly he will progress, but I assure you there is no hurry as long as Kyren Williams is healthy.

  17. Posted

    54 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

    a lot of the top receivers are breaking out right away or more so by year 2 these days.  I guess i'll add Pickens into the "already broken out" category. 

    Of the ones who could still prove the old year 3 rule, Drake London would be #1... with a new scheme and a legit QB.

    Jameson Williams intrigues me the most. Have to remember he basically had a red shirt 1st season. This is really year 2 for him and 2023 (stupidly) he missed the first few games for gambling. Biggest issues facing him are pecking order (Amon Ra, La Porta, Gibbs) and proving he can do a bit more than be a deep threat. In his favor? The fact that he really shouldn't have much competition for the #2 spot. If he is not their #2 WR this year, he's likely a bust.

    Christian Watson would be next up on my list.

    good post.  agree with nearly all of this.

    I'm not certain about jameson williams.   hes boom or bust for me.    If hes gonna break out I think it likely needs to happen this year.    I loved his talent at the time he was drafted, but due to his size, I was concerned about how he'd deal with the Jam at the line.  to some extent I'm still concerned about it.   I have not seen enough of him to say I'm satisfied with this.   and if he doesnt make it, this is likely the reason why (this or him doing something else stupid to keep himself off the field)

    but provided hes fully recovered from his ACL surgery, I dont have a whole lot of other concerns.   so even with the concerns noted above, I dont mind picking him up late in the draft if hes still on the board.

  18. Posted

    To clarify further, I look at whether the WR shows signs, and then I look to see if anything in the offense has changed.   in Collins case I knew he had a better QB than he had the year prior.  that combined with him showing at least moderate improvement from year 1 to year 2. (same production in fewer games played)  certainly helped.

    he was also starting to pass the eye test.    it never showed in the stats partly because of poor QB play.    this is one of those where it helps if you actually watch the game.  tough to blame a WR when he gets wide open and the QB cant hit him with a throw.

  19. Posted

    On 4/28/2024 at 6:16 AM, Super Cubs said:

    Nico Collins just had his 3rd year breakout, but I curious how much of it was him and how much was Stroud?  

    I think the chance of a WR having an early breakout go down substantially when they have a crappy QB.      so if you ask if Stroud had something to do with his breakout, I'd say for sure he did.   but Nico was showing signs of a breakout late the season before and I already had him marked on my late round draft list.   Picked him up in my auction for 2 dollars.   Best bargain of the draft.

  20. Posted

    1 hour ago, Maximum Overkill said:

    Kyren is going 1st - 2nd round. I don't see it. Sorry but you're a fool is you put 1st or 2nd round stock into Kyren this season. Corum isn't there to hold his jock. 

    lots of people are buying based on what he did last year.    and fair enough.

    early in the year I expect this may continue, but as the year goes on the kid will get more playing time.  If Williams gets hurt, it could be a game changer.

    if he stays healthy and plays well, the team will ride the hot hand (and why wouldnt they)

    I personally wouldnt spend a first rounder on him, but I would spend a mid to late second rounder

  21. Posted

    3 hours ago, Baker Boy said:

    Everyone doesn’t have the same injury risk!  Brett Favre was not an injury risk, etc, etc,

    Jun 1, 2022 NFL Pedal Foot Fracture  Williams suffered a broken foot in practice.
    Sep 8, 2022 NFL Pedal Ankle (high) Sprain Grade 3 Williams' injury surfaced in his NFL debut.
    Oct 15, 2023 NFL Pedal Ankle (high) Sprain Grade 3 Williams was placed on IR prior to Week 7. He returned in Week 12.
    Jan 14, 2024 NFL Hand Metacarpal Fracture  Williams suffered the left hand injury in the NFC Wild Card Round. Surgery followed.
    Oct 1, 2023 NFL Inguinal Hip Strain  Williams picked up a hip contusion in Week 4 vs. the C

    agreed.  everyone does not share the same risk.  some players have more risk for sure.

  22. Posted

    he still gets an NFL pension.  not sure how big that it, but it should be substantial enough that he wont starve.   as for the bankruptcy, I dont know that its a case where the poor cant afford bankruptcy.  its more a case of there is no point to going bankrupt.    The main reason to declare bankruptcy is to protect the equity in your home.  if you rent or dont own a home, there is no real reason to declare bankruptcy other than to keep the credit collectors from calling you.   

  23. Posted

    2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

    Listening to the fantasy sports channel a bit lately, and a few shows have said that Corum is the guy to get.  They seem to think that Williams doesn't have the body/build to be an every down lead back and point to his multiple injuries in such a short time frame, as evidence of that.  They believe Corum has that body/build and is a more talented player... to which they think he could beat him out for the starting job.  Or, if the Rams feel that they don't want to make that depth chart switch, Williams get hurt, Corum would play too well in Williams' absence, to reduce his playing time when Williams gets healthy.

    maybe.   but they will run williams until there is nothing left in the tank.   hes not a big guy, so durability could be an issue for him moving forward.   once he gets hurt, then Corum will get a chance to show what he can do.

    for now its Willams job but the situation is worth watching.

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