Ray_T
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Posts posted by Ray_T
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3 hours ago, polecatt said:If he can stay healthy, could be in for a big season
this is the key.
I dont think he can do it. if he wins the starting job, hes maybe a nice late round lotto ticket. but I wouldnt pay more than that for him
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24 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:You can clearly see his acceleration on tape. He's consistently blowing 4.4 corners off the ball. I see no reason for concern.
Here's an early scouting report:
"In terms of his 40-yard dash time, Harrison Jr. has not officially recorded a time. However, he is believed to be one of the fastest players on the Ohio State team. In high school, he ran a 4.46-second 40-yard dash, which is an impressive time for a player of his size. Harrison Jr. is not just fast but also has excellent footwork and quick reflexes. He uses his speed to create separation from defenders and make plays down the field, as well as to make quick cuts and evade tackles".
to be clear, I am not dismissing Harrison as a prospect. I am loving what I am seeing.
but it is good to know he was running close to 4.4 even in High school. so I am guessing hes just as fast as Nabors (possibly faster) but we still dont know for sure.
Like I said earlier (though it may have been on a different thread) even assuming Nabors is faster, Harrison is a more NFL ready prospect. his body control/catch radius is very impressive and his physicality is superior.
to be clear, I think both of them become the #1 on the team that drafts them by the end of the season. the only question I have is how quickly that happens.
With Harrison it could happen day one as he has skills that translate immediately.
its good info you brought to this conversation and I thank you for that.
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something just occurred to me. its possible he refused to do a 40 time in the hopes that he drops a few slots to a team he actually wants to play for. Though the tape on him is good enough that I dont know that this would scare anyone away.
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ok that is a measure of the top speed.
not the same as a 40 time which takes into account acceleration from not moving.
usually when you see no 40 time like what is the case with him, you assume hes not as fast as advertised. I know Nabers at a 4.38 on the 40 is blazing fast too and he looks a bit faster on tape. (though that can be deceiving too)
the other factor is playing speed is not always the same as running the 40 on a track built for speed. running on Turf is slightly different (usually slower)
to that end, I'm surprised they dont have the guys run their 40 on turf. it would give a better idea as to the true playing speed of that WR.
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8 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:The 3rd??
Don't tell me you have Nabers and Odunze ranked ahead of Harrison.
I hear the argument for Nabers but even that is crazy IMO.
yeah, looking at Nabers, its possible he could be better. I think the ceiling is higher with him but Harrison is more of a finished product today and there is less risk with him (in my opinion)
Even if Harrison was slow (which he isnt) his catch radius and route running alone makes his floor that of a WR3.
I think his game translates more easily to the NFL and he will make an immediate impact on day 1.
Nabers likely makes an imact but it may take a few games (or up to a season) to get fully attuned to the pro game. he depends more on speed to get open and as a smaller WR he may get a lot more Jams at the line and such to try to knock him off of his route. While that may happen with Harrison, hes a big, physical receiver so that kind of play could easily backfire when defending a guy like him so I dont see a lot of DB's trying that technique against him.
as for Odunze, I have not seen enough tape on him yet. based on scouting reports, he shouldnt be as good but it is worth noting all scouting reports I have seen have those 3 as being fairly close and they all stand above the rest.
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1 minute ago, Maximum Overkill said:Imagine if The Chargers put together a package for Aiyuk and signed Nabers?
Won't happen but damn that's juicy!
well, I could see San Fran wanting at least a first for him. but hes younger and not injury prone like Keenan Allen was.
but it would be a very quick way to rebuild the WR room for the chargers.
and both teams are in different conferences. So that is actually a plus. if in the same conference/division the chances of a deal like this going down is low.
while I dont know that this happens, if it did, I'd sure love watching the Chargers play this next year. I like Nabers. hes more of a burner than Harrison I think. I have not seen any times on Harrison but he looks slower (but more physical) than Nabers. and no surprise. I think Nabers was timed at sub 4.4 at his pro day which makes him a very scary WR to cover for most DB's.
I think Harrison is technically superior in the sense that he runs more routes and more precise routes that dont depend as much on his speed.
either way, the reason I dont think they do this is because they bailed on Keenan Allen (likely for cap reasons) so why would they bring in a player who will want likely close to the same money when his contract comes up?
but we can dare to dream. I do think Herbert throwing to him and Nabers would be a very sweet situation indeed.
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I do like what he brings to the table in the tape I have watched so far. I especially like the catch radius and the ability to fight and beat out the corner from the ball while maintaining body control. that particular skill is high end. possibly elite. for me that skill is what sets him apart from Nabers who, I'll admit gets open a little more readily but who doesnt have that catch radius/body control ability. and Harrison is a bigger bodied receiver which has other benefits.
On 4/15/2024 at 10:47 PM, LaChup said:He's the third best receiver in this draft.
who in your opinion are the top 2 WR in this draft?
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12 minutes ago, weepaws said:So we had a news story that he wanted out, then the denial, and now he has removed SF from his social media. Deva wr.
if they are in the process of a negotiation of sorts these things can get emotional for the player. but it certainly adds fuel to the story that he may have requested a trade.
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1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:To me, the better plan would have been to spend the $50M (over 2 years), on FA's so that you can use your 1st and 2nd (possible trade up), to get a QB, then use both R3 picks on filling out the rest of the holes, not spending that on a bleh QB and needing your first 4 picks to be starters.
Their allocation of resources is colossally stupid.
I get it. but the problem is those are usually only band aid solutions. Most of these free agents are in the 28-30 year old range so you are buying 2 or 3 years of good production and then those last couple years on the contract are.... dicey.
so there is no perfect solution. and you are still getting a QB that is likely) acut below elite anyway. Much like the guy you are replacing.
it is also possible they looked into the option and didnt think they could sign the guys they wanted to so went the path of least resistance.
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I really love this kid. he not as physical as Harrison and harrison has some pretty sick body control that allows him to do a better job on the contested catches. but this kid is super quick and looks to be able to turn on a dime at top speed which allows him to get better separation at times.
I do notice its often the same route for him. the team didnt vary it a whole lot so he may need some work with route running but it could also be a case where nobody was able to stop him even when they knew what route he was gonna run. so it could be a case of ....... if it aint broken, dont go fixing it. we will go with these 4 or 5 routes until someone shows up that can stop you. but it never happened at the college level.
at the pro level he may need a year to refine some of those other routes, but its also possible he already can run them but we just didnt see a whole lot of it.
but for me both this kid and Harrison are amazing talents. I'd say Harrison is slightly ahead based on his contested catch ability but its very close. I'd project both of them to quickly (likely less than 1 season) become their teams #1 WR.
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15 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:You're right, I was exaggerating when I said he sucks. You're also right with your assessment. Mayfield is just good enough, to not suck [my input... not yours ---->] and force you to keep him, even though he doesn't actually upgrade your team.
It's funny, I'll be both pizzed and happy if they take a QB in R1 or R2. We agree, there are too many holes to fill on the OL and defense to use a R1 or R2 pick on a QB. So, I'll be happy that they're looking to replace Mayfield with this draft class, but I'll be ticked that they guaranteed Mayfield 2 years and $50M. LOL If they'd have spent that money on the OL, they wouldn't need to address that in the draft. They could've packaged #26 and a 2nd to move up 8 to 10 picks to ensure they get a QB.
well, I like the plan of taking a QB late in round 1 or early round 2. but like I earlier said. I think it is unlikely to happen.
but you can usually get a really good guard/Center in round 2 or 3 most years, so if they took a QB in round 1 then came back in round 2/3 and took a guard and Center they might be ok by the time that QB is ready to play (assuming they sit him at least half a season)
alternatively they could take an O lineman in round 1 then trade up in round 2 to get that 2nd tier QB and come back in round 3 and take a Center.
only problem is you are not upgrading the defense at all so you better nail those picks if you do it that way.
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2 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:Oh, that part, LOL. Yeah, I was thinking more about the Dak & Purdy stuff. Yeah, the dude (Mayfield), he sucks. They screwed up and we're throwing away a year. They didn't need Cousins. The Bucs are pizzing away $50M (guaranteed money), on Mayfield these next 2 years when they could've used that money to bolster the interior OL. They need at least 1 G and a C and now have to look to rookies, which makes NO SENSE, when they could've gotten solid & experienced guys in free agency and drafted a QB (Penix or Nix could be there [or trade up a bit]), and get the same similar mediocre performance that you get from Mayfield. Mayfield is maxed out. He's maxed out at being a mediocre to below average QB in the league. That can be replaced in the draft.
I'd rather have a QB that I know I'll have a competitive team that could win, but losses (like 13 other teams in the playoffs), then a QB who I know the season is over before it started.
the real problem with Mayfield..... I dont think hes a terrible QB but hes just good enough to keep the team from getting a top draft pick that can be used to draft a franchise QB.
granted this season the QB class is deep enough that I think a good candidate can be had in the first and early 2nd rounds.
for all we know, maybe that is the plan. if taking a QB in round 2 or late in round 1, the pressure to play him may not be what it is if you take a kid in the top 10 picks overall. You can actually justify sitting him for a year before throwing him in there.
That said, I honestly think the odds of this happening is low. but if you draft a QB in round 2 you likely can justify sitting the kid and/or working on his mechanics or whatever deficiencies he has until he is ready. (which in my opinion is what most of the QB's in this class likely need)
either way, they do have other holes to fill and there are some plug and play O line guys available in this draft, so the line can be rebuilt if there is a will on the part of management. I see the value in that, but there are far too many teams who do not.
I guess we will see.
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1 hour ago, Showboat said:If you say so, but it seemed eerily similar to what your previous posts about it being a mistake to sign Mayfield for $30M when cheaper/similar talent options were out there.
We'll see how it turns out, but I think the Bucs did the right thing - not breaking the bank for Cousins, and keeping Mayfield (who IMO is still young enough to have room for growth) on a relatively reasonable contract given the current QB market. Cousins will probably get the Falcons to the playoffs and may even win the division, but you'll be glad he is not the Bucs QB when he does nothing to prevent an early playoff exit.
yeah, thats kind of how I feel about Cousins.
hes a regular season darling, but come playoff time..... he kinda stinks
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3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:I don't think he can get anything. I believe that no player on a rookie contract can get any type of a new deal (money), until after 3 years. I know that is the case with 1st round players... but I think it's global. He has to play this year before he gets an extension.
Sure, there may be teams lining up to give him a big deal, after 27 games... but that big deal will come with a lot of conditions and team outs. After 3 years, those conditions and outs go down to almost nothing.
pretty sure you are right.
the only difference between guys drafted in the first round and everyone else is that the guys drafted in the first round have the 5th year option
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2 hours ago, IGotWorms said:I disagree. He could get RGIII’d or Alex Smithed this year so he does need to make sure he gets something out of this whole thing. Even if it’s just a big bump for this year he can’t be playing for 1/2 mill or whatever it is.
And I do think he would command a big payday on the market. Certainly many many multitudes of what he is currently slated to make. Teams mortgage their whole next few years for a completely unproved draft pick — why not for a guy that was damn near league MVP last year??
well, I dont fully agree.
2 back to back good years proves the first good year wasnt a fluke.
if he was drafted high in the first round hed have a year and a bit of good production along with the pedigree as he performed at a super high level in college.
but he was the last pick of the NFL draft. he needs to prove it a bit more if he wants to get top dollar. Personally I think part of his value comes from the system and team he plays with. outstanding weapons on offense and a good O line that keeps him from facing too much heat.
if he goes elsewhere the situation isnt nearly as good. his best value as a player is where he is at.
another top notch season and hes getting top dollar from multiple offers. it becomes the whole Kirk Cousins thing where his value just kept going up. and he is definitely in the situation to make that happen.
screwing around with a holdout with 2 years left on his contract? not a good idea.
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5 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:I'm certainly not saying I think Dak is worth $60M, I'm simply saying that's the number I've heard thrown around while listening to NFL Radio... and that's by the pundits and guests, not fans.
I think every team that has success is there because all the right pieces fit. That said, just because I think that, and you apparently, it doesn't mean the players feel that way. They have a much bigger ego, and I can understand why... they're there after all. I think there are players that see the big picture, but I believe there's a larger group that think they're more important than they really are... or understand.
I think the 49ers are better served paying Aiyuk what he's worth now and spread out that bonus money to dilute it as much as they could. Then, pay Deebo and Purdy next year. Both Kittle and McCaffrey will be free agents after the 2025 season. Kittle will be 32... McCaffrey 29. It's best to address them leaving now, so that you can let them walk after the 2025 saeson, and keep both Deebo & Aiyuk. The TE & RB positions are cheaper to replace than game changing WR's. It's best to keep the ones you have and go fill in the gaps with the cheaper players.
I was never suggesting you thought Dak was worth 60M. I just saw it as a market comparable.
I was mostly pointing out that the market is also crazy because I dont think Dak is worth 60M either. but that seems to be where the market is for top 10 QB's. I dont honestly know that ANY player should be worth this much.
either way, the team has a cap crunch coming. drafting a WR to replace one of the departing ones may not be a bad idea. and drafting a TE to replace an aging kittle in a year or so may also not be a bad idea.
but that's their problem not mine (thankfully)
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37 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:Sure, why not? I wouldn't, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't. Like I said, if the sentiment is that Dak is worth $60M, then Purdy has to be as well, since he's accomplished more. If a guy is good enough, while I still think it's unwise to pay someone that kind of money, it'll still work itself out.
I dont know that Dak is worth 60M but I'd say that Purdy is on par with Dak. (maybe a little better)
either way, the players on this team perform (in part) because the team was put together so that all the pieces combined are more than the collective whole.
as a player I'd want to remain in an organization that is maximizing my talent. I dont see any of these guys performing better anywhere else. (with one or two possible exceptions)
but at the end of the day the team wont be able to keep all the WR and Brock Purdy. there simply isnt enough cap space. I think Deebo is the guy to go but I could be wrong. and if Aiyuk is making too many waves, maybe he will be the guy to move.
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1 hour ago, polecatt said:He's looking for a new contract, so it may just be posturing, but once the floodgates have opened, you never know. Other teams are gonna try to pounce
certainly possible.
but if he does want out, the time to make a fuss is now. team can trade him for a player or a pick and its a very deep draft for WR. if moving on from a big contract and going for youth at the position, this is the time to do it.
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1 hour ago, polecatt said:It seems like all these top RBs either have already torn an ACL or have major issues with ball security
yeah, I'm willing to take my chances on the ACL. its not the career ender it once was unless you tear it multiple times. But its usually a full 18 month recovery (possibly 24 if complications arise post surgery). But the Ball security is best left to others unless you are certain pro coaching can fix that issue.
In the past I've found that this issue is coachable in some cases..... but truly it gets corrected around 50% of the time (and that may be generous) That likely means your player sees a lot of the bench until that issue gets resolved. (if it gets resolved)
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I actually like this kid.
and whoever gets him will get a discount due to the ACL injury.
granted I wouldnt expect a big rookie year due to the injury. but if I'm drafting him I dont mind having him red shirt the first half of the season and then bring him along slowly when hes not under the microscope.
especially if the line isnt all that good to start (as is the case with some teams) then sitting wouldnt be a terrible thing while the team takes steps to sort out the line.
I think if he can return to the form I saw on tape, hes got the potential. I like the way he runs through contact or can weave his way through a very small hole opened up by his blockers. Thats pro calibre skill.
but like I said, I wouldnt expect anything this year, but next year could be a nice one for him.
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2 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:Darn, I was selfishly hoping it was true.
it might be true. Just because hes denying it doesnt mean it didnt happen. he was sort of at odds with his coach there for a couple of years.
its possible that this never truly got resolved.
either way, if he suddenly gets traded and it surprises a few, then we will know there may have been something to this rumour.
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19 hours ago, The Football Guru said:I thought for sure he was going to be my RB1 when I started these profiles, but the bulk of what I had seen of him before this month was from 2021. Needless to say, he doesn't look the same player.
and that happens sometimes
especially with the 5 star recruits who get a ton of carries in high school and pre HS. then a pile of carries the whole college career.
all that, and maybe an injury and there may not be enough in the tank for the kid to play out the full length of his rookie contract to get to the big money.
maybe I'm exaggerating a bit, but not THAT much
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1 hour ago, JagFan said:It’s a long and painful way to go for regular folks that can’t afford high end pain meds…which I’m sure he had access to. Having your throat slashed so deep that it almost takes your head off, and left to bleed out probably might be worse.
my mother died of cancer and the high quality pain meds can only do so much.
Trust me. in those last couple of weeks she was wanting it to end.
Not to be morbid but this is one area where a big pile o cash wont do you much good.
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I dont like his fumbling. but sometimes that can be fixed with coaching. I'd say 50% of the time it cannot be fixed.
but thats likely one of the reasons he wont be a day 1 pick and may not be a day 2 pick either.
once you get into day 3 picks the upside is usually worth the risk and you pick him with a thought to developing or fixing the flaws in that diamond in the rough.
If a team with a good coach sees why hes fumbling and thinks he can fix it, he may go on day 2. but day 3 is likely where he belongs in this draft.
J K Dobbins
in FFToday Board
Posted
for him it was never about talent. it was an inability to remain healthy. now coming off a torn Achilles, a rather serious injury after having a number of other soft tissue injuries and torn meniscus.... I think he tore his LCL at one point too. (correct me if I'm wrong or missed anything)
the dude just cannot stay healthy. when healthy hes looked the part of a true #1 RB but the number of games where hes been fully healthy I can likely count on one hand.