Ray_T
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Posts posted by Ray_T
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11 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:It was probably the first example, and I remember taking a stab on him that next season probably a little earlier than most would have.
As for not seeing it happen since I would point to Breece Hall, who tore his ACL in late October 2022 and returned for the 2023 season to put up 1,500 yards and 9 scores. In late drafts I was having to pick him in the 6th round. Not exactly the same situation since Peterson was injured 2 months later and came back to have a historic season 2,300 yards and 13 scores. He was a freak though, so I think Hall's return in 2023 is somewhat comparable, especially in PPR formats.
ok point made. it has happened twice.
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20 hours ago, Showboat said:No doubt with age there is increased risk, but there has really been nothing to suggest that Henry couldn't be the #1 fantasy back this year. Getting a player that has a reasonable shot to tbe the #1 fantasy back in the last half of round 1 seems to be about the proper age discount. If he falls to round 3, that would be ridiculous value (and I can't beliave there will be many leagus where he falls past round 2).
I'd be surprised if he falls into round 3. I'm just telling you where I assess the risk.
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On 6/16/2025 at 6:11 PM, Showboat said:This is true, but getting the exceptions right create value and separate the champs from also-rans. I recall the year Adrian Peterson was coming back from ACL (and I think it came late the previous season - want to say December). People had him on DND lists and were avoiding him like the plague. I was not even all that high on him, but he fell to a point where I thought it would be ridiculous not to take him.
yep and people have been drafting people coming back from ACL surgery ever since because one phenominal athlete came back from the surgery in 8 months (or something stupid like that) and performed like a champ.
I dont think I've ever seen this happen before or since. ADP is just one hell of an athlete with some kind of superhuman abilty to heal from injury.
Others would call him a freak of nature (in a good way)
to that end, I never put people on a DND list. I always project a value taking the injury(and risk associated with it) into account and when I hit that point I pull the trigger.
but I am very meticulous about how I apply my modifiers when I make adjustments for injury. often it gives me an advantage, but sometimes I blow it. there are times when you project a guy to return in 24 months and draft him and guess what.... hes not ready or it turns out hes done. that happens too. like it or not an ACL injury still has the potential to end the career of some players. its not as common as it once was, but it still will occasionally happen.
so its not an exact science. its mostly about calculating the odds and getting it right. and when you pick a guy coming back from an ACL tear there is still like a 3-5% chance that injury was a career killer. likely a 3% chance he recovers like ADP did. but for the rest, its typically 16-20 months. +/- a couple months.
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On 6/26/2025 at 9:12 AM, gcmmidwest said:He's the real deal ...
I also agree he is the real deal.
in the draft analysis I looked at the tape and found his to be the most impressive. then I stupidly went out and spent a lot of draft capital to take Caleb in my keeper league because I felt he had better talent around him and was more likely to make an early impact.
I rejected my own analysis because I felt the situation was better and Caleb had far better WR and I've regretted it since.
this kid is so good that none of that actually mattered. I'd be surprised if he regressed and if he does it will be a mild regression. This kid has it. There is no denying that.
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On 6/27/2025 at 8:35 PM, polecatt said:I thought he was gonna hit the wall last season, but he didn't...
I wouldn't be shocked if he did this season, or any season here on out, but still, getting him at 12 is crazy!
I don't think you often see a steady decline with RBs when they age out, it's usually one season, they're great, then all of a sudden, they look like they couldn't start for a high school team. So, if that trend continues, he's either gonna be a top 5 fantasy RB, or he won't be worth a roster spot...
That said, maybe a bit extreme, I think in this new age without hard hits and player safety, some of the RBs may not age out quiite as quickly as they used to
I thought there was some risk last year due to the large workload he has had over his career. but he was 30 at the time and was going from a lesser O ine to a better O line. While a lot of RB's hit the wall at around 30, I figured the odds were pretty good the two would offset each other.
I also figured a lot of his game is built around power. Not speed. so losing a half step will affect him but not by as much as other RB's
but now he is 31. in terms of the # of RB who put up RB1 numbers at this age, the field has shrunk fairly substantially compared to the # of RB's who have put up RB1 numbers at the age of 30.
for me he has reached a tipping point in terms of this and I'd say the odds are at least 50-50 that he will disappoint if taken in the first 2 rounds. So risk wise, hes a coin flip if going in round 1 or 2.
if he falls into round 3 the odds drop off a fair bit as the bar is considerably lower.
There is no doubt in my mind that whether he produces or not, this is likely his last year being drafted as a RB1(at least some will still draft him as a RB1). and he has had one Hell of a Career. I will admit. I am a fan.
not many RB's in the history of the game actually run through people like he does/did. but he is very close to the end of the line. I really hope he has another big year, but a part of me feels like he will put up a Meh type year or will get injured and that will be his last hurrah.
to be clear, most RB careers at this age end in injury and when they come back they are unable to perform.
food for your thoughts.
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18 hours ago, LaChup said:Can someone put an arrest warrant out for Ray Lewis, because Ray Lewis' Limo Driver about to get smoked.
looks like he went Zero RB. Strategy can work if you nail your WR/QB picks, and I do like his WR and Hurts at QB is about as good as it gets for fantasy. I think he does have a chance to pull it off if the RB he does select outperform their draft position.
It has been my experience that the Zero RB strategy has its best chance to work when you are the only one in the draft using that general strategy. Robb also went Zero RB, so I guess we shall see how that works out for the two of them.
Overall I think it was a well done draft.
good job guys.
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5 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:how much did he wager on Sanders being the top pick?
Yeah, thats what it feels like doesnt it?
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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:I've found that the majority of times that people make "Bold" predictions, it's to have absurd takes and not be held accountable for ones they get wrong, but boast for the one or two they get right.
more often than not I've found this to be more of a joke thread myself. occasionally you will see some serous predictions but there is a lot of nonsense here too.
My recommendation is not to take this thread TOO seriously.
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17 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:Well, no one is comparing Mahomes to Richardson in the first place. If they are, then they're idiots, and the discussion about availability would be moot.
If they're using that saying in that context (Mahomes/Richardson), you are correct... I just don't think people are. Well, at least to the extent you think so, but I could be wrong. I only ever hear it when the discussion is about 2 (or more), similar players. Like I said previously, Mayfield / Tua would be an apt comparison. Another one could be Henry / McCaffrey.
Nobody: "Just say the guy gets injured too much."
Nobody (2028): "Hot take: Why is the phrase 'the guy gets injured too much', overused"?
To note, I've heard many people say 'How come everyone says players are 'Injury prone'? Everyone in the NFL gets injured. It's so overused'.
I get where you are coming from. but at the same time there are definitely some players who get injured more than average and some who just never seem to get hurt.
while this is not the sole reason to pick or reject a player, I'd suggest that its important in determining risk.
there are an awful lot of people who ignore this in their risk analysis, and players prone to injury will sometimes not be drafted when they should. without a doubt injury history of the player needs to factor into your analysis and ranking system. if you dont do it, you probably should.
determining risk of a player with injury isnt just about saying hes injured and not performing. you actually need to research the reasons and the recovery timelines as well. ACL injuries are generally 16-20 month injuries. you can usually play in 12 months, but likely wont be able to perform at 100% at that point. There are exceptions to this, but not many. If the ACL is combined with an additional ligament injury or meniscus, you can likely tack on 6-12 months onto that recovery time as the rehab is slower and more difficult.
there is also the risk of additional soft tissue injuries after returning from surgery (especially if you return early)
these are the numbers I go with and I've researched this fairly extensively a couple years back so I'm reasonably confident in this recommendation. I have also not seen anything recently that suggests the numbers have changed on this recently.
if you go back I have made similar posts to this effect. feel free to reference those if you like.
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7 hours ago, LaChup said:Do you guys really think Lamb will be ranked that high with Milton at QB? I sure hope so. Milton is going to cook!
if you mean the burgers at the tailgate party, then yeah hes gonna cook.
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41 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:That's more indicative of the teams he was on than him. He's been a pretty solid QB on about 11 teams that weren't good. With the Raiders, 7 of the 9 seasons... the defense ranked in the bottom 10 in the league. Also, his best weapon was 1 year of Davante Adams. Amari Cooper, regardless of where he played, was either a stud or invisible on a weekly basis and you never knew which one you were going to get. He never had a good RB until his 6th year. That year, his best receiver was a TE. The following year (2020), they had a top 10 offense and their defense ranked 30th. No one ever said Carr was great, but he was a solid/competent QB... similar to about 80% of the QB's in his era. The only difference is that he never had a good coach, offense, or defense to help him.
agreed.
the Raiders might have been one of the top 3 dysfunctional organizations in the NFL over the last 10-15 years.
they may not have been the worst every year, but they were consistently very bad. There were a number of years where if someone asked you to name his WR most of the people in the fantasy community couldnt do it. Thats how bad his WR were and even then he managed to put up average to above average numbers (depending on the year)
not saying he deserves to be in the hall of fame or anything, but hes better than his stats would indicate.
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23 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:David was better... too bad he got demolished behind the Texans line.
yeah that was a classic case of ruining the QB by not investing in your O line.
it puzzles me that teams still do this. you would think they'd learn their lesson but that is clearly not the case.
If I had a poor line and I was spending big time to move up in the draft to grab a QB or using a #1 overall, the first thing I'd do is I'd see if I have a good defensive player that I could trade straight across for an O lineman. throw in a draft pick if need be but get at least one solid O line guy. 2nd round pick could likely get you a decent guard or centre. and you can likely sign a free agent to plug a third hole. At that point the line still has holes, but likely at least is borderline passable.
then what you do is you dont start your new QB in game 1. let him watch a few games and aim for a start after the teams bye week (or mid season whichever is later)and work on some things to get him ready.
if he gets a cup of coffee in the 2nd half of the season, you have draft picks next year to draft a plug and play O lineman in year 2. Maybe sign a solid free agent as well at that point and the line (hopefully) isnt an issue. sure the defense you robbed to fix the line will need work but my general belief is that defenders are more likely to make an immediate impact than offensive guys who can sometimes take a couple years.
so the opportunity will be there to rebuild the Defense.
it is a process.
but too many teams decide to go for the shiny new prospect on offense (wr, RB, TE) when they should be making the non sexy OT/OG pick.
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8 hours ago, JagFan said:His best ability has been disability.
well, on this one issue I'll say this. it does not matter how good your player is if they are not on the field.
to that end the best ability is availability but nearly all players have it. so then you go to the tiebreakers. which would involve the skill of the player
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one thing I will say. in most leagues it has been my experience if you have a RB injury, RB's seem to be harder to trade for than WR most of the time.
for that reason I give the tie to the RB when I value a RB and a WR roughly equally. but that is my personal preference
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15 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:They drafted Ray Davis last year and like him. Not sure if they will give him more run this year or not. Cook gets the bulk but they do use 3 backs. He often comes out on 3rd downs.
I really liked Ray davis when I saw him play. I'd like to see what this kid could do with more playing time
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3 hours ago, nobody said:Teams fall in love with speed at runningback, but acceleration/deceleration, vision, change of direction, contact balance, and pressing the hole are more important once a runningback meets the minimum speed requirement.
100%. acceleration, start stop and change of direction are far better indicators for a RB. Cone drill helps there. pure speed by itself is nothing without those other abilities.
as well as the ability to read the blocks. I've seen RB with slightly subpar speed perform decently because they are so good at reading the blocks that they see the hole is about to open up and they head that direction before the hole opens up and they are through the moment that hole opens up.
elusiveness and/or ability to break a tackle are huge too. I dont care how a RB gets through the line. by being elusive so its hard to get to them or if they power through the tackle. the important thing is that they can get through the line and gain their 4-6 yards. after that everything they earn is gravy.
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11 hours ago, weepaws said:Before today I liked Mixon adp, mid rb2.
But if Chubb starts to show any positive sign , Mixon adp will go down, but by the time my two leagues draft which is late August, is adp might be even more valuable.
I dont know.... with multiple ACL surgeries for Chubb, and 29 years old. I'm not sure hes gonna start. they only signed him for like 2.2 or 2.3 mil I think. thats not starter money. My guess is hes gonna be the short yardage back and mixon will be the every down guy.
I suppose there is always the chance Chubb blows the doors off but I'd honestly bet against that. it hasnt even been 12 months since the surgery. I'd put my money on Mixon to have a similar year to last year minus a couple TD which Chubb will vulture.
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On 6/5/2025 at 1:40 PM, weepaws said:Dimes has a new starting Qb job.
he has a far better chance at success here than he did in New York.
its now up to him to make good on this.
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without a doubt. if hes not the first RB off the board in whatever draft format you have, I'd be seriously surprised.
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On 6/4/2025 at 12:17 AM, weepaws said:Love to be able to draft him as my wr2.
20 hours ago, ICEMAN said:Ditto. I think that round 4/5 is about right for the risk.
ICEMAN
Look at that I agree too. Me, Iceman and Weepaws all agree on something. has this ever happened before?
just kidding mostly, but you guys were saying exactly what I was thinking.
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16 hours ago, JagFan said:Ah, so you came along the same year Rodgers showed his arrogance, and competency to cry at his draft…seems right.
Funny.Dude is a look at me…arrogant…cried his way out of GB because they didn’t give him the weapons he felt he deserved. I’m not a Brady fan, but that dude did it with a WR doubling as a DB. Leaders lead regardless, they don’t run away.
Since 09, jabroni.
yeah, he seems a little entitled now. but that sometimes happens when players become as good as he became.
hes been like this for a while but nobody cared about that as long as he is producing. the fact that his numbers are down a bit has made people focus on other things like this sense of entitlement.
I personally dont mind if a player gains that sense of entitlement so long as hes bringing it on the field.
Rodgers is not as good as he once was, so that sense of entitlement is now suddenly viewed as a problem. To be clear, his numbers were not actually bad this last year. they just were not in line with what we are accustomed to seeing from him
just under 4000 yards 28 TD and 11 INT. not all star calibre, but when you look at that TD-INT ratio its not bad. part of the problem there was that the defense was a shadow of what it was the year prior. so when the offense sits while the other team puts up a long, sustained drive, it can kill your momentum and timing.
either way, hes still a solid QB. but hes now at a stage in his career where he needs to be in the right situation to be successful.
In Pittsburgh, they run a fairly conservative offense. I actually expect similar numbers to what he put up last year. maybe slightly better as the D is better so they should have more plays from scrimmage. likely a few extra TD as Rodgers will start on a short field more often.
so from that perspective I'll predict 4100-4200 yards passing. 32 TD and 10 INT. perfectly adequate if the defense does their job.
He just wont be a fixture on my fantasy team unless there is reason to roster more than one QB
I do reserve the right to adjust this prediction as more info comes available lol.
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2 hours ago, polecatt said:Pair that with an elite talent, like a Dan Marino, not sure what you get... Don Shula was too old school. Perhaps that's what we're seeing with Patrick Mahomes in KC now.
Marinos era, Shula was the coach everyone was trying to imitate. back in those days if you got 240-250 yards almost weekly you were considered a very good fantasy QB.
but
offenses have evolved drastically since then. Marino broke through that wall (more or less) and that was the point where offenses started to convert from run based to passing offenses. it didnt happen overnight.
Marino and Fouts, and Joe montana were QB's that changed (to some degree) the way an NFL offense operates. Mahomes was the second generation of new age QB for Andy Reid. first generation was Donovan McNabb. both players take features of the running QB and use a drop back passing scheme to make it happen. its almost like a hybrid west coast offense that is somewhat unique. granted that has evolved since the McNabb days but Reid knows what he is doing.
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On 5/20/2025 at 8:25 PM, Showboat said:Brees doesn't have the MVP awards, but of the 15 5k passing seasons that have been recorded, Brees has 5 of them (kind of makes one wonder how he doesn't have at least 1 MVP award) and second only to Brady in career yardage. Based on stats, IMO Brees has a much stronger HOF case than Rodgers.
I'd agree with this. Brees was by far a more efficient QB his stats are better. I dont see why we would even question his admission to the HOF. there is no way his team wins a superbowl without him there.
47 minutes ago, polecatt said:Jameis Winston also threw 30 interceptions in that season...
gotta also agree. 5000 yard season for Winston, but arguably he was as much of a help as he was a hindrance.
when I played HS football, as a rookie I put up a ton of yards passing. but turned the ball over too much. coach told me to think of it this way: an INT is worth 30-40 yards passin6). and a fumble is worth 50. Pick 6 is likely worth more. (lets say 100 yards for fantasy purposes)
factor that into your stats and then you see who the better QB truly is.
and honestly this method of analysis has rarely failed me in terms of ranking of the QB. I fully acknowledge there is likely an exception to every rule so if you find one, feel free to post it here. but for my purposes, this tells me all I need to know most of the time.
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On 5/26/2025 at 11:27 AM, polecatt said:I think the jury is still out on him, but he did make some big improvements from his rookie season to year 2.
Mostly, the amount of times he was sacked went way down, from a horrific 62 in his rookie season, to a respectable 29 in his 2nd. If he is learning to get rid of the ball that much quicker, it's a good sign. He had 6 rushing TDs too, that's a sign he knows when to tuck and run perhaps.
Of course as the Panthers continue to improve, hopefully, on offense, it will help him out a bit as well.
For fantasy purposes, he's depth with potential for a bit more.
yeah, and this is one of those situations where his stats can improve in 2 ways.
1) (the obvious one) bring in players to improve the offense.
2) the not so obvious one, bring in players to help the defense. while this seems to be not as important I fully disagree. if the other team is constantly putting together long, sustained drives, the offense does not get enough time on the field. so when the D gets better, your time of possession and the number of plays you can run on offense gets larger. and if the D gets some turnovers the short field means more of their offensive drives end in points (hopefully TD's)
in my mind the D was pretty bad last year, so any improvement there helps the offense too.
On Bryce Young (he might be good)
in FFToday Board
Posted
for fantasy yes.
But the team is also trying to develop a QB. The extra pressure of not having a defense that can perform may not necessarily be good for the development of the player.
there is also a point where the bad defense really does hinder the QB numbers. if its a bad run D the other team can run the ball all the way down the field and kill off a good chunk of the quarter.
so you want a D that defends the run well and gives up plays in the pass game. (for fantasy purposes) that is the sweet spot for fantasy if you have a very good QB running the offense