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Posts posted by Ray_T

  1. 1 hour ago, tanatastic said:

    People were really high on Lamar Miller when he was the assumed guy in the backfield and now it’s DJ who has a considerably higher upside and history so I don’t see why that’s not a decent gamble.

    I agree. 

    It is possible that DJ didnt work in AZ last year because the new coach wasnt able to maximize his talents.

    that may be due to the line that was beyond terrible, or it may be coaching.

    From what I can see hes going into a far better situation and will face a lot more positive game scripts.

    I think hes gonna have a good year.

  2. 1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

    I don't think he's a "running" QB, but a "scrambling" QB.  Jackson and Watson (to a lesser extent) are, Newton is/was, Vick and Griffen were, running QB's.  I put Mahomes in the McNabb, McNair, Young category.

    In Mahomes' career, he's averaging 3.55 rush attempts per game.  Jameis Winston is at 3.44 and Rodgers is at 3.40, Blake Bortles is at 3.63... will anyone consider those 3 guys "running QB's"?  I don't.

    ok that's fair on the rush attempts per game angle.

    Maybe the better stat is how many hits they take per game.   Of course, thats a stat I dont know if we could track down.

    Cam Newton looks like hes probably done, but hes an extreme case.  Took a LOT of hits.  played behind a terrible line and his running ability bailed out the line on numerous occasions, but he still took way too many hits and now his body is breaking down.

    a lot of the QBs on your list actually got injured a fair bit.

    Vick, Griffen, McNabb, Steve Young had a long career, but he was often injured.  he had a 3 year stretch where he was healthy, but otherwise missed games every year.  Winston has missed a fair number of games too but I wouldnt go so far as to call him injury prone.

    McNabb also missed a fair amount of time due to injury and had a long career, but I truly think he was done by the time he was 30.  after that he was never the same.

    McNair wasnt too bad, but seemed to get dinged up.  lots of seasons where he missed at least 1 or 2 games but he did have a long career.

    now that I look at this in more detail, maybe we need to look at what the baseline is for QB's.   

    it would be interesting to see games missed for running/scrambling QB's vs drop back passers.  I'd like to know the stats on that.


  3. 1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

    Somebody is going to have to make it. The team has to spend a certain amount of money.  QB's have the best chance at a longer career as the injury risk to them is much smaller than other positions.  That said, I do think this kind of deal is a mistake.  I'd never give any player a deal that is longer than 7 years.

    yes, but the career for running QB's tends to be a fair bit shorter than that of a drop back passer.

    That would be due to the extra hits they take.

    That being said, you are correct.  careers are getting to be longer.  maybe that trend will continue.

  4. 10 hours ago, AxeElf said:

    Oh wow; you probly like him more than I do, then--or you play in exceptionally large leagues.  Right now I would draft him as depth, and hope he returns flex/bye week usefulness.

    That would be the low end of his range of values.       I wont finalize my rankings until I have some training camp reports.   I'm going on the assumption that he earns the #2 WR job in Green Bay.   That scenario may not actually happen.   so his value is likely all over the place and will vary by league.


  5. 2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

    Funchess will likely be a pleasant surprise.

    i think he will do better than he has of late.  may even have the best season of his career this year (proviiding he and Rodgers stay healthy)

    I still think his max upside is that of a top end WR2.

    I'd say draft as a WR3 and hope for the WR2 production.

  6. On 7/5/2020 at 2:41 PM, Frozenbeernuts said:

    Adams and Rodgers each have multiple years left in the league. Rodgers is more done as a top fantasy qb because of the coach, not his talent or age. There is no way they let Rodgers top target leave the team. Adams will be Rodgers main target for some years to come. Cooks on the other hand has never been anywhere near elite. Just solid to good. But now he has a serious injury history that could force him to retire. 

    I'd agree with this.  

    also, productive WR's have been dumped and not replaced with anybody.

    Adams is more or less all that is left.

    Lazard has maybe more potential than I initially thought.  he put up some numbers, but I think its a case of nobody was left  to throw to, so he got all the reps he could handle.

    Funchess is ok but hes not spectacular either.  Granted, hes now playing with a better QB than hes ever seen, so maybe there's some upside there.

    Rodgers is good enough to possibly elevate both players (if hes still got 'it')

    we shall see.

    injury risk with Rodgers is starting to rise with his age too.  at 36, you dont want him taking too many hits.

    same player.  just added risk in many forms.

  7. 7 hours ago, weepaws said:

    I didn’t see anywhere that the op said anything about draft Kelce in the first round, but if you look at Kelce points and avg points per game last season, he would be a top 7 wr.  

    So taking him in the second in a ppr in a small 10 team league I would recommend, he won’t get another shot at drafting Kelce.  


    all I was saying is dont take him in the first.

    in PPR he ranks better than standard leagues I suspect, but like I said earlier.... if thinking about a TE, the place to draft him is just before comparable WR's start coming off the board.  as a TE hes worth a bit more than a WR with similar stats because you  are filling the TE position instead of the WR spot. 

    where you  hit this point largely depends on the rules and scoring in your league.

    In ppr you probably draft him earlier than you do in standard leagues because he does catch a lot of balls although I'd have to run the  numbers to confirm this and I'll admit, I dont have the time to do this right now, but I'm sure someone here will do it.

  8. On 7/1/2020 at 4:30 PM, AxeElf said:

    Mock draft grades are even more ridiculous than real draft grades.

    Don't go into ANY real draft with a hard and fast strategy in mind ahead of time; just be capable of pivoting to whatever opportunities present themselves.  Yeah, Kelce looks good in the draft grade, but you can wait ten rounds and get 1 point less per week out of Hayden Hurst.

    Since it's PPR, you can pretty much just go with the best RB/WR available for the first 8-9 rounds, then worry about your support positions in the double-digit rounds.


    the advantage of picking late is that nearly everyone else has shown their hand by the time you have drafted.

    many drafting this late  dont realize how big an advantage this can be.

    when drafting this late, you let the draft come to you.   Dont chase any specific strategy because too many  things can go screwy by the time you pick.

    This is where mocks can help you because people will try stupid stuff in a mock and if you want to test your strategy against the unexpected, a mock can sometimes be helpful.

    That being said.... as for the TE thing.... you should not be even considering a TE in round 1.

    My guess is in most formats... round 3 is good.   maybe late in round 2 for PPR.

    my general theory on the TE posiition.....   if you are looking at WR's and the best ones on the board have slightly better stats than the top TE, that is the point where you should switch and go with a TE in  lieu of a WR.    if you can  get most of  the production of the top WR on the board with a TE that TE is more valuable because of the position you are filling.

    in my experience, that usually  happens in round 3.  some years it happens late in round 2, occasionally round 4, but most times its in the latter half of the third round.  Take a TE earlier than that, you are overpaying.  plain and simple.

    but picking at 9, you likely have 5 RBs that should be off the board and 3 WR's.   the odd time the top QB will  come off the board, but that's not a regular thing.

    usually one of the top 5 RB's  or one of the top 3 WR's gets passed over by someone and drops to you at this slot. 

    Usually that is your pick.

    sometimes people go off the board and multiple players that should be gone  are available.   this is another  case where you should mock it, or at least have a good ranking list that you truly believe in.   Many draft mistakes actually happen when 2 or 3 people go completely off the board and throw everyone else off their game.    if you are lucky enough to see this happen, take your best guy at 9 and expect to get another good player after the turn.

    and do NOT under any circumstances extend a long run on a position.   if you are up at 9 and 8 RB's are off the board, you take your best WR and look at getting a RB with round 2 or 3.   at that point the dropoff in points wont be huge if you pass and wait a round.   ditto if 6 WR's are off the board. 

    it is almost guaranteed that if you are coming in at the end of a position run that you have probably  made your first mistake. (unless 8 RB's are off the board and Zeke or McCaffrey are somehow still on the board.....)

    either way, this is another case of making a good list you believe in and sticking to your list.

    best of luck to you.   and NO TE's in  round 1.   trust me, you can wait on this.

  9. 4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

    Exactly.  I think that's what people are referring too when they say "Elliott has never accused of being smart".  I mean, we have a number of examples to point to, in social settings where you say, "what and idiot".  The fact that he scored well on a test or got good grades in college, is irrelevant.

    Totally true.  

    all Zeke needs to be is football smart.

    Apparently he has those kind of smarts in spades.

    so long as his off the field stupidity does not get him suspended hes good to have on your team. 

    This is probably the reason he will never be a number 1 overall pick in the NFL.   Risk of getting suspended due to off field stupidity is too high.

    But I'd still want him on my fantasy team regardless of this.

  10. On 6/30/2020 at 11:30 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

    I know a girl who graduated H.S. with a 5.0 gpa, perfect score on her SAT's and ACT's and a 4.0 gpa in college... and she's a freaking idiot.

    I think we all know or have met someone like that.  

    Book smart isnt the same as real life smart.

  11. 7 hours ago, tanatastic said:

    8 straight seasons without missing a game is really impressive so I’ll give him that super durable tag. Sadly it never amounts to much as he hasnt come close to his huge season early on and I doubt he will.

    I think if it ever happens, this will be the year.

    all the pieces are in place.

  12. On 6/29/2020 at 2:33 PM, tanatastic said:

    There’s a lot of hype for this move but I don’t see why. I would understand if they won the services of a hot free agent in a bidding war but Cam was out there for anyone to sign and no one did. It’s like being mad that your friend took the last slice of pizza but it was just sitting there for an hour and you didn’t take it.

    I like they way you said this.

    I think hes a high priced insurance policy.   possible starter.

    Belechek has  high standards.  to start, he would need to learn that playbook inside out and backwards and learn it quickly.

    his new coach does not have patience for someone who doesnt do this.

    so Cam will need to work his arse off.

    I've not heard anything posiitive or negative about Cam's work ethic, but it will be tested here.

    after that, what happens largely depends on his health.  if he has recovered to a point where he can still run with the football, he can still be effective.

    I think it more likely he becomes more of a tradiitional drop back passer.  Hes got a good O line.  from that perspective, this is one of the best places for him to land if this is his new normal.

    This is one of those situations where you want to monitor how things go through camp.  Right now I would say this is a crapshoot.

  13. On 6/30/2020 at 7:09 PM, tanatastic said:

    Have to blame the staff for paying guys like that too much. He gets to preserve his body and can still afford all the hookers and blow he can handle. Especially since Stafford is among the most durable QBs in the league (last year was a rarity). 

    I wouldnt call hiim the most durable.

    early in his career he was labelled injury prone.

    but I agree, hes been good of late other than the most recent injury of course.

  14. I will agree, he has spent too much of his career injured.   As such, despite his talent, most teams will be hesitant to give a long term deal to a player with his health record.

    Minny should play him this year.... then franchise him to get one more season out of him, and then let him walk the followiing year.

    if he puts together two healthy years in a row, you may consider signing him for longer term to keep.  but i suspect his career gets cut short due to injury

  15. On 6/26/2020 at 7:01 PM, RedzoneMonster said:

    I never drink a sip during my draft. Everyone mocks me every year.  You’d think after 20 years, my 8 SB appearances and 4 championships they’d put 2 and 2 together...  I never say a word and let them drink.  

    I'd never suggest this.    part of the fun of the draft is having a beer or two with your friends.

    That being said,

    if it is a serpentine draft, you can hold off on the heavy drinking until  after round 5 or 6.   at that point if you make a dumb pick, you wont be the only one and it wont ruin your team.

    if it is an auction, you need to be more alert start to finish.

    but that's no big deal either.  have a beer or two.  just dont go overboard  until most of your team is put together.

    if you are drunk before the draft or auction begins, thats a recipe for disaster more often than not.    but if you make a good list and stick to it, you can overcome a lot of the potential losses due to the drink.   This requires a lot of research and preparation ahead of time, but it  can be done.

    for me, its mostly about minimizing the damage the  booze will do to your draft result.   if you  are prepared to take the necessary steps. its not that hard.

    like I said... if you are sober at the start of the draft, and  pace yourself to a reasonable level most of your  draft should be reasonable.  if you blow a couple  picks in the last 2  or 3 rounds its not a draft killer.

    all things in moderation.

    have a beer or two if you enjoy it.   dont completely abstain.  You do wanna have some fun

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  16. 3 hours ago, polecatt said:

    If healthy, he's better than any QB they have, so I don't see how this makes them worse

    key words.... if healthy.

    Lis  Franc injury is tough to come back from.

    I think from here on out Newton is a drop back passer.  i dont think he will be able to play the game he played before because I just dont think the running ability will be there.

    but I do think he has enough skills to be a solid drop back passer.  but I do think this will be an adjustment for him.

  17. 13 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

    The only number that really matters in my opinion is hospitalizations. Testing is one thing but to feel so bad you need to go to the hospital is another. Currently in Florida the hospitalizations are increasing at a rate quicker than the discharges. I’m no doctor or mathematician but that sounds like a big problem.

    there is a large proportion of seniors in Florida.   For that reason they should be taking extra precautions.

    from what I understand those over 60 years of age are high risk for Covid.

    I do hope people are sensible enough to listen to what the experts are saying and wear a mask and do the social distancing thing

  18. 1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

    If there's limited attendance, the demand will go up because the supply will be down.  I don't think that's even debatable.

    honestly, demand will drop.  some will stay home for fear of catching covid.   but lots will still want to go to the games.

    for priices to go up all you need  is for the supply to drop by more than the demand.

    if they reduce the stadium capacity to 1/3 or 1/2 that of normal then for prices to remain the same, the demand will need to drop by the same amount.

    i honestly dont see that happening. 

    with no movies, no other sports no concerts for months, the first sporting events  will have such robust demand I think it will be unreal.


  19. 2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

    Dak had 30 TDs last year.  He had 14 of them against the Giants and the Redskins.  Add in Detroit, and he had 17 of his 30 TDs in 5 games.  He also had 146 of his 277 yards rushing in those 5 games.

    2019 was the first year that Dak had even been among the top 10 QBs in fantasy points per game.

    I would bet you that Dak won't be a top 5 QB, but I've seen how you count, so I'm sure you'd find a way to insist you had won when Dak turns out to be the #14 QB in 2020.

    For the rest of us, don't draft Dak.  He's too expensive, and you'll get better numbers out of Matthew Stafford ten rounds later anyway.

    you forgot to include Miami.

    but it is worth notiing that both New York and Washington will be better teams than they were last year as well.

    Washington got Chase Young  who I believe will be a difference maker  for that Defense from day one.

    New York signed some free agent corners and drafted a safety and a corner.   that secondary will be a whole lot quicker than they were.

    they also loaded up on Offensive Tackles.   I think Barkley will have more room to run, and Danny dimes wiil have more time to throw.  this will mean less stalled drives and the defense will spend less time on the field.

    this will (indirectly) help the defense too.

    for me, that's 4 matchups that will be tougher than what they had last year.  the rest of the schedule is not tough, but it is a bit tougher than last year. so I dont see a  huge dropoff in stats for Dak, but definitely a dropoff.

    I figure he drops from top 3 to top 6 or 7.  

    all I'm saying is dont pay top 3 value for him.



  20. honestly, Id sell Dak Prescott.

    Lots of publications have him as the third best fantasy QB and I truly dont think hes that good.    He feasted on some terrible teams with terrible defenses last year.

    he has a fairly soft schedule this year too, but I dont think he will have the same kind of season he had last year (which I think will be the best statistical year of his career)

    Hes a top 10 QB  but not top 3.   Sell while the value is high.

  21. On 6/11/2020 at 7:04 PM, AxeElf said:

    Buy Preston Williams.  He's only at #52 among WRs.

    He only played 8 games last year for a 1-7 team, and 5 of those games were with Josh Rosen at QB, but even so, his 8 game pace would have approximately equaled the season-long production of Deebo Samuel, and Samuel is being drafted #25 among WRs.

    nice catch.  I do think hes got a ton of potentiial.   in a dynasty league, hes a grab and stash.

    coming off ACL surgery there is the chance he wont get there until next season so hes not as good a guy to grab in a redraft.

    he is a big bodied guy,  so maybe he doesn't  need the same burst/speed to be productive that a smaller WR would need.

    problem  with ACL injuries, usually the straight line speed comes back quickly.  but  the ability to change direction  or  make a cut takes longer to return to form.

    I'd hold off until I see him in camp.  if the camp reports are positive, I'd  grab him late in the draft.  if not,  I'd watch hiim closely early and grab him if he shows signs of productivity.

  22. On 6/16/2020 at 10:59 AM, Frozenbeernuts said:

    Hockenson has reached stud status after a pretty weak rookie season? I did not know it was official

    in 12 games he got 367 yards.  projected over a 16 game schedule hes over 500 yards.   for a rookie TE this is fantastic.  rookies usually dont make much of an impact until year two or three.   hes ahead of the curve there.

    also have you watched him play?   he passes the eye test for sure.  remember his starting QB got hurt week 8 so he had a lot going against him and still put up decent numbers.

    with a healthy Stafford, he  will be a top 10 TE this year without a  doubt.