Ray_T
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Posts posted by Ray_T
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3 hours ago, IGotWorms said:They want to move up to 3 in the worst way but the Patriots are asking too much.
Or that’s the media story anyway.
I could see them moving up for McCarthy. But shoot, even then they might have to jump to #4.
After that seems like there’s a big dropoff to Penix and Nix. Wouldn’t be surprised if neither is taken in the first round.
honestly, this is one of those years that's so deep it wouldnt surprise me at all if its a year like the year marino was drafted. he was like the 5th QB off the board or something. still in the first, but late.
I have a feeling one of the later drafted QB's (later than the midpoint of round 1) will light it up.
granted I have nothing to base that off of other than there is a lot of depth at the position in this draft but also because drafting QB can be a bit of a crapshoot.
6 hours ago, weepaws said:I think Darnold will be their guy, lol. I think they could trade Jefferson and receive some extra help
I'm not sure Darnold should be anyones guy. but you are correct in the sense hes likely the best QB on the roster so far. but the bar IS very low.
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3 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:No thanks
"Nine drops and a 10 percent drop rate in 2023 are among the highest marks at receiver in this draft class; focus drops and hand positioning were the cause of several of them, however".
yeah, but if playing out of the slot, you are also taking a lot more hits at the same time as or right after making your catch. So the drop rate for a slot guy will always be higher than your outside WR. Still.... not a stat you like to see.
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5 hours ago, weepaws said:I wouldn’t be surprised if Jefferson is traded.
if doing that, might as well use him to get a top pick. if going full rebuild, then might as well rebuild fully.
though I would argue that their line needs help. Not sure you wanna put a rookie in behind that line.
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30 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:Gabe Davis with + upside?
That's kinda what I see. Only with a crazy high ceiling.
well, nearly all the tools are in the toolbox. Now its mostly a way of figuring out how to use those tools at the pro level and (hopefully) landing with a QB/coach combo that can make good use of his talents.
given his speed, there will be plenty of corners giving him a cushon cuz they dont wanna get beat deep. Speed brings a lot of things that make up for deficiencies elsewhere.
if running a 4.3 40 I doubt that double coverage matters much if he can easily outrun the coverage. but that wont play a role until hes at a point where teams want to double cover him. So there is time for the pro level coaching to make sure he knows how to deal with that when it comes.
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10 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:6'3 - 4.33 Speed is unreal.
"Thomas was among college football's best separators for his entire career, and that only improved in his last season. In 2023, Thomas was charted as open on 74 of his 87 targets. He also led college football with 17 receiving touchdowns.
At the NFL combine, he ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash, which ranks in the 97th percentile among all receivers. His rare blend of size (6-foot-3) and speed will make him a hot commodity during the draft process".
for sure.
hes a first rounder. for the record I was not bashing the guy.
like I said, its hard to estimate a players true upside when the double coverage was usually on another player on the team.
beating double coverage is usually the sign that the guy has the upside of an elite #1 WR. we never saw much of this because that double coverage was usually on Nabers. so its hard to say just what type of upside he truly has.
its kind of like Leveon Bell. he could catch balls but his college team didnt utilize that part of his skillset anywhere close to the max of his ability so he was drafted lower in the draft than he should have been because that part of his skillset was not known on draft day.
that may actually be the case here. he could possibly be the best WR coming out of the draft. right now that's not the prediction but it is one of the many possible outcomes we could see at the pro level. he could also just end up being that high end #2 WR.
Tough to say for sure. its just a shame he had to live in the shadow of Nabers.
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yeah, one scouting report I saw said they loved what they saw but they couldnt predict whether he will be a #1 WR as he benefitted from being on a very talented team
With Nabers on the other side, he did not see double teams very often. (nor should he) so based on the tape I've seen there are two possibilities.
1) hes as good as advertised and can beat double teams and is a true #1 WR.
or
2) he struggles with double teams (especially early in his career) and caps off at being a very good #2 WR.
so while there are questions here, I still think he has a fairly high floor. I have questions about his ceiling though the measurables are all there.
That said the issue above is one that is not his fault. but when you dont see the double team often, then its hard to say just how high your ceiling actually is. Granted a good, pro level receiving coach should be able to work with him but I do think its likely he doesnt fully break out in year 1 unless there is already a proven alpha WR on the roster to keep the double teams to a minimum.
I do not expect him to go early in round 1 so its possible he lands on a pretty good team if he goes late in round 1. I think that would actually be better for his early career upside
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23 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:Definitely.
I believe I watched every one of his targets from this past season. It's been a bit since I did his write-up, but I don't recall him running by too many folks. In short, it would be silly for me to assume he can separate consistently when I haven't seen it, so it surprises me some believe he was tempo-ing his routes and purposely not trying to separate very often. I'm of the mind if you can blow by your defender, you do it whenever possible.
yeah, thats nonsense. as a WR if you can get open, thats what you do. Its your job to do that. if that fails, you try to outmuscle the defender, but that's got to be the Plan B. At the NFL level the % of contested catches he makes wont likely be the same as it was in college.
so while this is a nice skillset to have, you still need other skills at the NFL level.
winning the contested catches can keep you on the field but it wont make you a #1 WR very often.
I would not draft a guy like this in round 1. (not this year anyways) There are too many talented WR's in this years draft to pick a guy like this early (in my opinion)
I feel like his max upside is that of a very good #2 WR but there is a decent chance he ends up a #3 or #4 WR. A prospect like this you dont take in round 1 in my opinion.
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7 hours ago, weepaws said:Think The Chargers will bring in another rb.
They have to bring in another one. Look at Baltimore. 3 years in a row hes been injured. He's only been able to play 9 games over those 3 years. He was supposed to be their starter but clearly due to injuries he was never able to fully wrangle that job and make it his. He flashes, looks good, then gets hurt.
a team can only take so much of this before packing it in.
now on another team, the Chargers should still draft a young RB in round 2 or 3 (probably round 2 unless they take an O lineman or a defender in the first 2 rounds)
There are a handful of RB's capable of starting in this draft so I could very well see the Chargers grabbing one of them. Arguably the largest need is at WR but the chargers could trade back 2 to 6 slots to acquire additional picks and still get a very good WR.
It is hard to say for sure but the chargers will be an exciting team to watch this offseason.
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20 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:Ladd tested off the charts athletically but his production sucked, even in a pro style offense. 30 receptions last season, ughh.
You'd think with all that talent he'd be a bigger part of the offense.
I get suspicious when talent doesn't match production.
sometimes a good WR doesnt produce for a reason. it looks like he missed a number of games which likely played a role in his poor senior year.
his QB put up solid stats, but was a first year starter this last season. so likely he never really was able to make a great connection with his QB.
granted, I am not suggesting a team go and draft this kid in round 1 but a little later in the draft this kid could provide some upside to whoever grabs him.
even if you think he is a first round talent, the lack of a 1000 yard season on his resume makes it tough to justify a day 1 pick for him. hes likely a high upside day 3 pick
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well, if he doesnt get open, he could still find himself useful.
Dez Bryant wasnt a great route runner, but Romo would have him run to a spot on the field and then throw it up so he can high point the ball. so even if fully covered, he still makes the catch (if he has the kind of QB that can do that)
Not saying that is the situation here. I have not looked at much other than the scouting report, but a good accurate QB can make use of a guy like who can high point the ball and win those battles even if the rest of his development does not happen.
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4.33 for the 40. That is impressive. I'll have to take a look at some of the tape on this kid.
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2 hours ago, polecatt said:It seems unlikely but sometimes a change of scenery and a different scheme is all it takes
for him it was never about talent. it was an inability to remain healthy. now coming off a torn Achilles, a rather serious injury after having a number of other soft tissue injuries and torn meniscus.... I think he tore his LCL at one point too. (correct me if I'm wrong or missed anything)
the dude just cannot stay healthy. when healthy hes looked the part of a true #1 RB but the number of games where hes been fully healthy I can likely count on one hand.
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3 hours ago, polecatt said:If he can stay healthy, could be in for a big season
this is the key.
I dont think he can do it. if he wins the starting job, hes maybe a nice late round lotto ticket. but I wouldnt pay more than that for him
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24 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:You can clearly see his acceleration on tape. He's consistently blowing 4.4 corners off the ball. I see no reason for concern.
Here's an early scouting report:
"In terms of his 40-yard dash time, Harrison Jr. has not officially recorded a time. However, he is believed to be one of the fastest players on the Ohio State team. In high school, he ran a 4.46-second 40-yard dash, which is an impressive time for a player of his size. Harrison Jr. is not just fast but also has excellent footwork and quick reflexes. He uses his speed to create separation from defenders and make plays down the field, as well as to make quick cuts and evade tackles".
to be clear, I am not dismissing Harrison as a prospect. I am loving what I am seeing.
but it is good to know he was running close to 4.4 even in High school. so I am guessing hes just as fast as Nabors (possibly faster) but we still dont know for sure.
Like I said earlier (though it may have been on a different thread) even assuming Nabors is faster, Harrison is a more NFL ready prospect. his body control/catch radius is very impressive and his physicality is superior.
to be clear, I think both of them become the #1 on the team that drafts them by the end of the season. the only question I have is how quickly that happens.
With Harrison it could happen day one as he has skills that translate immediately.
its good info you brought to this conversation and I thank you for that.
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something just occurred to me. its possible he refused to do a 40 time in the hopes that he drops a few slots to a team he actually wants to play for. Though the tape on him is good enough that I dont know that this would scare anyone away.
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ok that is a measure of the top speed.
not the same as a 40 time which takes into account acceleration from not moving.
usually when you see no 40 time like what is the case with him, you assume hes not as fast as advertised. I know Nabers at a 4.38 on the 40 is blazing fast too and he looks a bit faster on tape. (though that can be deceiving too)
the other factor is playing speed is not always the same as running the 40 on a track built for speed. running on Turf is slightly different (usually slower)
to that end, I'm surprised they dont have the guys run their 40 on turf. it would give a better idea as to the true playing speed of that WR.
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8 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:The 3rd??
Don't tell me you have Nabers and Odunze ranked ahead of Harrison.
I hear the argument for Nabers but even that is crazy IMO.
yeah, looking at Nabers, its possible he could be better. I think the ceiling is higher with him but Harrison is more of a finished product today and there is less risk with him (in my opinion)
Even if Harrison was slow (which he isnt) his catch radius and route running alone makes his floor that of a WR3.
I think his game translates more easily to the NFL and he will make an immediate impact on day 1.
Nabers likely makes an imact but it may take a few games (or up to a season) to get fully attuned to the pro game. he depends more on speed to get open and as a smaller WR he may get a lot more Jams at the line and such to try to knock him off of his route. While that may happen with Harrison, hes a big, physical receiver so that kind of play could easily backfire when defending a guy like him so I dont see a lot of DB's trying that technique against him.
as for Odunze, I have not seen enough tape on him yet. based on scouting reports, he shouldnt be as good but it is worth noting all scouting reports I have seen have those 3 as being fairly close and they all stand above the rest.
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1 minute ago, Maximum Overkill said:Imagine if The Chargers put together a package for Aiyuk and signed Nabers?
Won't happen but damn that's juicy!
well, I could see San Fran wanting at least a first for him. but hes younger and not injury prone like Keenan Allen was.
but it would be a very quick way to rebuild the WR room for the chargers.
and both teams are in different conferences. So that is actually a plus. if in the same conference/division the chances of a deal like this going down is low.
while I dont know that this happens, if it did, I'd sure love watching the Chargers play this next year. I like Nabers. hes more of a burner than Harrison I think. I have not seen any times on Harrison but he looks slower (but more physical) than Nabers. and no surprise. I think Nabers was timed at sub 4.4 at his pro day which makes him a very scary WR to cover for most DB's.
I think Harrison is technically superior in the sense that he runs more routes and more precise routes that dont depend as much on his speed.
either way, the reason I dont think they do this is because they bailed on Keenan Allen (likely for cap reasons) so why would they bring in a player who will want likely close to the same money when his contract comes up?
but we can dare to dream. I do think Herbert throwing to him and Nabers would be a very sweet situation indeed.
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I do like what he brings to the table in the tape I have watched so far. I especially like the catch radius and the ability to fight and beat out the corner from the ball while maintaining body control. that particular skill is high end. possibly elite. for me that skill is what sets him apart from Nabers who, I'll admit gets open a little more readily but who doesnt have that catch radius/body control ability. and Harrison is a bigger bodied receiver which has other benefits.
On 4/15/2024 at 10:47 PM, LaChup said:He's the third best receiver in this draft.
who in your opinion are the top 2 WR in this draft?
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12 minutes ago, weepaws said:So we had a news story that he wanted out, then the denial, and now he has removed SF from his social media. Deva wr.
if they are in the process of a negotiation of sorts these things can get emotional for the player. but it certainly adds fuel to the story that he may have requested a trade.
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1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:To me, the better plan would have been to spend the $50M (over 2 years), on FA's so that you can use your 1st and 2nd (possible trade up), to get a QB, then use both R3 picks on filling out the rest of the holes, not spending that on a bleh QB and needing your first 4 picks to be starters.
Their allocation of resources is colossally stupid.
I get it. but the problem is those are usually only band aid solutions. Most of these free agents are in the 28-30 year old range so you are buying 2 or 3 years of good production and then those last couple years on the contract are.... dicey.
so there is no perfect solution. and you are still getting a QB that is likely) acut below elite anyway. Much like the guy you are replacing.
it is also possible they looked into the option and didnt think they could sign the guys they wanted to so went the path of least resistance.
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I really love this kid. he not as physical as Harrison and harrison has some pretty sick body control that allows him to do a better job on the contested catches. but this kid is super quick and looks to be able to turn on a dime at top speed which allows him to get better separation at times.
I do notice its often the same route for him. the team didnt vary it a whole lot so he may need some work with route running but it could also be a case where nobody was able to stop him even when they knew what route he was gonna run. so it could be a case of ....... if it aint broken, dont go fixing it. we will go with these 4 or 5 routes until someone shows up that can stop you. but it never happened at the college level.
at the pro level he may need a year to refine some of those other routes, but its also possible he already can run them but we just didnt see a whole lot of it.
but for me both this kid and Harrison are amazing talents. I'd say Harrison is slightly ahead based on his contested catch ability but its very close. I'd project both of them to quickly (likely less than 1 season) become their teams #1 WR.
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15 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:You're right, I was exaggerating when I said he sucks. You're also right with your assessment. Mayfield is just good enough, to not suck [my input... not yours ---->] and force you to keep him, even though he doesn't actually upgrade your team.
It's funny, I'll be both pizzed and happy if they take a QB in R1 or R2. We agree, there are too many holes to fill on the OL and defense to use a R1 or R2 pick on a QB. So, I'll be happy that they're looking to replace Mayfield with this draft class, but I'll be ticked that they guaranteed Mayfield 2 years and $50M. LOL If they'd have spent that money on the OL, they wouldn't need to address that in the draft. They could've packaged #26 and a 2nd to move up 8 to 10 picks to ensure they get a QB.
well, I like the plan of taking a QB late in round 1 or early round 2. but like I earlier said. I think it is unlikely to happen.
but you can usually get a really good guard/Center in round 2 or 3 most years, so if they took a QB in round 1 then came back in round 2/3 and took a guard and Center they might be ok by the time that QB is ready to play (assuming they sit him at least half a season)
alternatively they could take an O lineman in round 1 then trade up in round 2 to get that 2nd tier QB and come back in round 3 and take a Center.
only problem is you are not upgrading the defense at all so you better nail those picks if you do it that way.
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2 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:Oh, that part, LOL. Yeah, I was thinking more about the Dak & Purdy stuff. Yeah, the dude (Mayfield), he sucks. They screwed up and we're throwing away a year. They didn't need Cousins. The Bucs are pizzing away $50M (guaranteed money), on Mayfield these next 2 years when they could've used that money to bolster the interior OL. They need at least 1 G and a C and now have to look to rookies, which makes NO SENSE, when they could've gotten solid & experienced guys in free agency and drafted a QB (Penix or Nix could be there [or trade up a bit]), and get the same similar mediocre performance that you get from Mayfield. Mayfield is maxed out. He's maxed out at being a mediocre to below average QB in the league. That can be replaced in the draft.
I'd rather have a QB that I know I'll have a competitive team that could win, but losses (like 13 other teams in the playoffs), then a QB who I know the season is over before it started.
the real problem with Mayfield..... I dont think hes a terrible QB but hes just good enough to keep the team from getting a top draft pick that can be used to draft a franchise QB.
granted this season the QB class is deep enough that I think a good candidate can be had in the first and early 2nd rounds.
for all we know, maybe that is the plan. if taking a QB in round 2 or late in round 1, the pressure to play him may not be what it is if you take a kid in the top 10 picks overall. You can actually justify sitting him for a year before throwing him in there.
That said, I honestly think the odds of this happening is low. but if you draft a QB in round 2 you likely can justify sitting the kid and/or working on his mechanics or whatever deficiencies he has until he is ready. (which in my opinion is what most of the QB's in this class likely need)
either way, they do have other holes to fill and there are some plug and play O line guys available in this draft, so the line can be rebuilt if there is a will on the part of management. I see the value in that, but there are far too many teams who do not.
I guess we will see.
2024 NFL Draft Profile - WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
in FFToday Board
Posted
yep.
I'd say as a WR, its far easier to look good when you have a good QB.