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Ray_T

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Posts posted by Ray_T

  2. Posted

    2 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

    Usually better to get out a year too early, than a year too late.  Particularly with a 1st round pick. 

    Before I looked at adp's a few months back for the first time, I would've guessed McCaff's adp to be about mid-3rd rd.  I was stunned at the optimism. I guess he reached a level of fantasy greatness nobody can forget and many believe it returns. 

    It'll be interesting to see how this shakes out. The drafters who risked 1st rd picks are the ultimate gamblers - I can respect that. If they all get paid, hats off. 

    all it takes is one to value him as a first rounder for him to go there.

    I had him as a late 2nd rounder before the risk vs reward starts to make sense.   when they traded for another RB I knocked him down to late 2nd as a figured they were of the opinion they'd need another RB (which is not a good sign)

    but in every redraft I was in he did go in round 1.   so yeah, others were more optomistic than I was.... and thats fine.   hes not the type of player you overpay for due to the risks.

    so you nailed it.  in keeper leagues, better to unload him a year early than a year late.    Nobody is gonna pay top dollar for a 30 year old RB who is injury prone.   Id rather take my chances with Derek Henry.  At least He seems to be reasonably durable.   and the upside is almost as good.

  3. Posted

    19 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

    Entered last year on IR because of achilles tendinitis - in both feets. Eventually played 3 full games... 10.7 pts, 10.6 pts, 4.8 pts, then sprained mcl in the fourth. All 4 games combined finished with 4.0 ypc, zero Tds, 1.7 ya-contact (career low), and 6.5 ya-catch (career low).

    Now 29 with a long injury history and in spite of last year's poor stats... he's gonna regain '23 form AND stay healthy.?.

    Hope springs eternal for some. Not me. 

    these types of injuries are hard to predict.   

    Tendonitis can be chronic.   but you can only take so many drugs to control it and only certain types of drugs.   I am admittedly not an expert in what ones can and cannot be used, but this is worrisome.  Like I said, I did some research, but once I got to a point where I realized I wasnt planning to take him in round 1 I was reasonably certain it wouldnt be a large factor for me anyhow.  if he fell into round 2, the risk vs the reward is roughly equal and that is a bit of a game changer at that point.   but I was 99% sure he wasnt falling to me in round 2 of any draft I was in, so I didnt worry about it all that much

    on another note:  Tendonitis, back injuries and a lot of those soft tissue type injuries can be very difficult to predict and project.   when I pick injury prone players like this, these are the situations I usually get burned on.

    so if its a player that can ruin your draft, its tough for me to go down that road in round 1 for a player like this.    Dont get me wrong... when healthy, hes exciting, fun to watch and a fantasy gold mine.   I just feel like those days for him may be done.    There May be one good year left in him (maybe) but that is far from guaranteed.

     

  4. Posted

    1 hour ago, weepaws said:

    I don’t think Mccaffery health is a given, I think the Niners made a great move going after Robinson.  They had little quality behind before picking up Robinson.  Even if Mccaffery stays healthy, it’s a very good move. 

    I wasnt criticizing the move.   its prudent to get someone who can play if you think there is any chance your starter cannot.

    my point is from a fantasy perspective, I am glad I had a second round grade on him.  if I picked him in round 1 I'd be pretty worried right about now.

  5. Posted

    This is exactly why I didnt have a first round grade on CMC.   I took a bit of flak for that on the other thread. (though admittedly not a lot)

      When they traded for a RB late in pre season that told me that his health was not a given.  You dont make that trade if CMC is 100% healthy..... and when you have a player who was somewhat injury prone to begin with, that meant trouble (at least in my eyes)

    I acknowledge it could be much ado about nothing but the risk is still there with CMC.  hes a guy who gets hurt a lot.

     

  6. Posted

    1 hour ago, nobody said:

    This injury is super weird.  What's up with this dude's eyeball?

    I mean why does his work load need to be monitored?  Like if he gets too much work, his eye will explode?  I usually hear about work loads when it's someone returning from a soft tissue injury that can be reaggravated.

    if it is a detached retina, I think it can detach again with a hard hit if he comes back too early.  

    that is the only possible thing I can think of.   That and perhaps him not being in game shape.   so the reps need limiting because hes incapable of doing a full workload in week 1.

    personally I think its an excuse to give him less reps so they can see what the kid they drafted can do.

    we shall see.   could also be a smokescreen.  coaches love to play misdirection with their comments to keep people from guessing what they actually will do.    especially this time of year.

    so I wouldnt put a lot of stock into the comments.

  7. Posted

    I think to answer this question correctly I need more information.

    if you dont make this deal, what is the best couple of QB on the board you could go after and what would you likely have to pay to get them at auction?

    knowing what your value add is at QB is important.   you are giving up 2 pretty decent players on excellent value in terms of dollars.

    right now I am leaning towards advising you not to make the deal, but I see Baker was also at a very affordable salary, so i am inclined to ask for more info before making a final call on this.

  8. Posted

    On 9/1/2025 at 9:55 PM, WhiteWonder said:

    At first, I would say Jeanty but it might help to know something about your keeper rules. How many can you keep each year? Is there a limit on how many times you can keep the same player? Like it's interesting that Nabers would not be someone's keeper.   If you can just keep designating a guy as a keeper forever, Nabers will have the longer lifespan. And if you can really get Hampton in round 2.... 

    you see where I am going with this. 

    Just on a guess that you can only keep 3 players and it doesn't matter what round they were drafted in (otherwise I feel like a few bigger names might be available) I think I would actually pick Nabers. 

    yep. I think you nailed it on this.

    Nabers is likely the guy but it also depends on the rules of your league with respect to keepers.   The fact he was not kept makes me think there is more to consider than just who the best player is.

    personally there are not many formats I'd take Jeanty ahead of Nabers.  Nabers is a confirmed blue chipper who will likely put up game breaking numbers for you.

    Jeanty likely is the RB version of this but we dont know for sure.  He is a rookie.   might only put up 900-1000 yards and a handful of TD as a rookie.   or he could go off and put up huge numbers.    thats what you get with rookies.   a high degree of unpredictable performances.

    the question is, do you want to risk that with a first (or early 2nd)  round pick?   I'd take the more certain outcome.   

    we all thought Marvin Harrison Jr. was a slam dunk first round pick and he proved that even high end rookies will sometimes have a rookie calibre season.   I do think MHJ has a good year this year.   well worth his ADP.   but he was bit by the rookie bug, and it is possible you could get that with Jeanty too.

  9. Posted

    On 8/29/2025 at 1:27 PM, WhiteWonder said:

    I don't want Pearsall as more than a WR3

    I'd agree.  WR2 is too rich for him.   He may put up WR2  numbers by year end but based on expected production for the whole year, he should be drafted as a WR3

  11. Posted

    1 hour ago, JagFan said:

    Thanks Ray.  I think we all agree, or a large contingent, that there is no reason to spend an early pick on QB because of the value later with high upside guys….i started to list them but there are so many.  My personal disconnect with Weepaws isn’t even that his personal strategy is only rostering one of these guys.  I personally prefer two if I have the bench space.  It’s the way he criticizes any and everyone for drafting two of these guys.  Zero substance….just comments like “why would anyone draft two QBs”.   So I was curious what his reasoning is.

    its a know your league thing.

    if most teams carry 2 QB then you would be right.

    if most teams only carry one, then he would be right in his instance.

    not all leagues are the same.   most of the leagues I am in are actually superflex or 2 QB leagues so most teams in those format will roster at least 2 and usually 3.

    but in the leagues ive been in where they only start one QB.  one league most teams kept a backup on the roster.   the rest of the leagues didnt.

    so for his league he could be doing the right thing.  but that may not work in yours.

  12. Posted

    14 hours ago, weepaws said:

    Raiders don’t have the key, that Barkley and AJ Brown have, Hurts.  Geno isn’t close.  

    No.  Geno isnt anywhere close to being elite.

    Hes not a bad QB.  but he has considerably less talent to work with than he had last year.  I dont expect him to put up the same numbers.

    Amari Cooper (if he can still play) will help. but the late signing likely means hes not all that productive in the first couple of weeks of the NFL year.  you can only learn so much of the playbook in a couple of weeks.

    I do like AJ brown at his ADP.   there is considerable upside where he is being drafted.

     

  13. Posted

    9 hours ago, JagFan said:

    Ok, I’ll bite.  What QBs have you targeted/drafted as your one and only on your roster?  Please feel free to make the list as long as you need.  Also, league size.

    Hey guys, Weepaws is right in one sense.

    There is a lot of depth at QB now.  and the difference between the QB8-9 and the QB14 isnt exactly huge.

    based on this it is a legitimate strategy to forgo drafting a QB in the early rounds and then draft a solid QB near the bottom of the top 10 concensus QB (presumably a player with some upside) and then grab another one later (ie. a guy like Herbert who was the QB14 last year but who looks like he could perform better this year)

    between the two QB if you cherry pick matchups all year you may end up with top 5 QB1 production due to the benefits of playing the matchup.   I'm not saying either of you are wrong. I'm just saying its a legitimate strategy.

    Lets not discount that.   I honestly like the possible upside for guys like Herbert, Goff and Dak this year.  Even Bryce young could have nice upside if he takes a step forward.   I think he has the talent at WR now to get that done.

    Even Drake Maye has some considerable upside too now that he has a legit WR to throw to.   I know Diggs is on the downside of his career, but I think hes still better than any WR Maye had to work with last year.

    Tua isnt even being drafted in a lot of formats.   while the injury risk is extremely high, he will likely produce at a good level until he gets another concussion.

    Stafford too.  huge injury risk, but with Davante in the fold and paired up with Puka, I can see a bounceback year.  

    These are QB you likely can get for free or even in the last round or two of your draft. (ok maybe not Dak but you get the idea)

    the biggest cost associated with this strategy is you need to use 2 roster spots on a QB instead of 1.

    I dont mind it.   Weepaws and I dont always see eye to eye.  but I agree his strategy with respect to this has some merit.

  14. Posted

    10 hours ago, Gepetto said:

    I was in a bidding war for Travis Hunter, George Kittle, Garrett Wilson, and Bijan Robinson, and I got them all and would have gone higher so don't feel like I overpaid despite the bidding wars. I was also in a bidding war for Omarion Hampton and Trey McBride but let them both go to the other bidder.

    bidding wars are fine sometimes.   at the end of the day you have to reign in your emotions.    its all about knowing if you are paying too much.  you clearly got all of those players.   so long as the value is there, you will be fine.

     

  15. Posted

    On 8/31/2025 at 10:35 PM, Gepetto said:

    Yes, FFtodays (Mike Krueger)

    https://www.fftoday.com/rankings/playerrank.php?o=1&RankType=redraft&Scoring=3&PosID=20&LeagueID=1

    But I kind of target players I like and will choose the players I pre-determined, and not go by anyone else's rankings. I just like to see how they have the players tiered.

    I'm in an auction league so it's different than just having to choose between players at each round draft position. 

    I just bid on the players I like without over bidding.

    the key in an auction is not to overbid.

    those bidding wars can kill you if the bidding gets out of control

    • Like 1

  16. Posted

    3 hours ago, LaChup said:

    So now he'll have 5 practices under his belt before the season starts. 

    Id expect a bit of a slower start for him just because of how little time hes got to learn his role.   I do think he will be successful,    just dont expect him to blow the doors off i the first couple of weeks.   not saying it cant happen.  his position (to some extent) is a bit instictual and hes got those instincts.   but knowing his role in every situation when hes only had a handful of practices with the team is asking a lot.    so mistakes likely will be made.   its inevitable.    as an OC I'd be running some plays designed to get him into the wrong position.    That may be easier said than done.   but you gotta try and this feels like a bit of an opportunity.   Id rather face him in week 1 or 2 this year than in week 9 or 10.

  17. Posted

    On 9/1/2025 at 4:47 PM, Maximum Overkill said:

    Perfectly stated. For example,. Treveon Henderson has the ability to break Fantasy Football, even as a rookie. I'm not leaving any draft without that kid, especially at that great of a value. 

    Drafting the Joe Mixons and the Josh Jacobs' of the World because Yahoo tells you to will win you nothing. I've been in enough leagues to know that's not how it works. 

    WeePaws may as well press Auto Draft if that's his thinking. 

    I dont think any of the publications were telling you to pick mixon this year.    at least nobody credible.

    I got him as a RB3 in one league and an RB4 in another.   at that point I do think it is good value.

    hes missing 4 games.  possibly one or two more but at least 4..   from what I've seen (which admittedly is somewhat minimal) and heard it doesnt look like Chubb is looking good which leads me to believe Mixon likely resumes his old role when he returns.    maybe Chubb poaches a few goal line carries but I dont think Mixon was ever huge on the TD anyhow.

    I fully admit a RB can come in as a rookie and be highly productive.  its more common for this to happen as a RB than it is for a WR or QB.   but typically its first rounders who do it. 

    and the conditions need to be right.   solid run blocking O line.  decent offense. 

    thats what you wanna see.

     

  18. Posted

    3 hours ago, polecatt said:

    It's the Browns...

    Any given year, if I didn't know a thing about any team in the NFL, the Browns would be one of the first 3 teams I thought of for worst team.

    There's lots of history to back it up. Some teams, no matter what, good players and coaches or not, always seem to lose. The only other teams I can really think of on par are the Lions and the Jets. 

    The Browns this season, have a gigantic clusterfock at QB. Somehow, a 40 year old Joe Flacco is their best bet, easily. All anyone seems to care about on the team is a 5th round pick who may as well be a social media star as opposed to a QB. 

    honestly, Flacco knows how to run an offense.   but if Flacco starts playing well, they will bench him for one of the youngsters on the roster.  its the Cleveland way.

    I have almost zero faith in management in cleveland.

    they signed a QB who was out of football a full year and was accused of molesting massage practicioners and given that baggage, they had the nerve to fully guarantee his contract anyways.    Now in salary cap jail the team is hooped for years due to that stupid signing.

    and this is just one of many dumb moves that team has made.    

  19. Posted

    I do my own.  

    I do usually look at one or two rankings.  pick the one which aligns best with my own thoughts (so I dont have to make as many adjustments) and then tweak that sheet to fit my needs.

    there are always certain players where the person doing the rankings doesnt share the same opinion on certain players.    I dont just do this randomly. I do based on my own research and knowledge.

    for example my QB ratings differ a fair bit from a lot of the big ranking sheets.   though looking at some I have a sneaky suspicion some of those rankings are done by running a regression based on past performances.    far less labour intensive, but also less accurate when a player has special circumstance surrounding poor production in one year.

    when I see a traditionally productive player have a bad year I usually try to find out why and if those conditions that led to the bad year still exist.   if they dont, I usually throw out the bad year and write it off to whatever it is (injury, bad coach, injured starting QB)

    so I never go strictly based on the rankings and occasionally will go against those same rankings.

    if you do go against what the rankings tell you and you are right, it can mean you  have one or two more impact players on your roster.    a significant advantage.   

    I also like to look at cases where one ranking has a player ranked high while another has that same player ranked low.   that usuallly is a good sign you need to do extra research to find out who is right and who is wrong.

     

     

  21. Posted

    On 8/26/2025 at 12:49 AM, weepaws said:

    Every report I have read about Chubb is how slow he looks, I think going Into the early half of the season Pierce is a good call, but once he starts running in mud again, Marks will get more work, and is already better in the passing game. 

    this just reinforces that Mixon will be the guy once he gets healthy....   if you can get him as your RB3/4 you are laughing.  he will come back and get some decent points in time for the stretch run and fantasy playoffs.     He will help you at the right time and you wont need to pay a high draft pick to do it.

     

     

     

  22. Posted

    2 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

    Generally, I think like you on the future aspect as well.  To me though, I'd like to think OP would have a better option in 2026 than James Cook.

    its close.   but I do view cook as a possible keeper in future years.  so due to age, thats where I value him more.  

    the reality is the difference between the two is mostly personal preference.   if we polled I'm sure the breakdown will be somewhat split.   but I also think Cook is an underrated player in fantasy.

  23. Posted

    9 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

    Conner but you need to cuff him with Benson 

    and I do think benson gets more love this year than he got last season.

    if the team is clearly not a playoff contender, you can bet they will be looking at options and one of those is at RB.   they need to know if Benson can get the job done or if they need to draft someone. 

    so I do think he gets a few games where he is the lead guy.

  24. Posted

    5 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

    This is a good point.  To me, the money says Connor, but you're right... if OP has an issue with Connor at being 30, then Cook probably is the safer pick.

    yeah the money is more of a one year time horizon.

    if you are looking at potential future keepers, that makes Cook the more valueable guy as this could potentially be the last year Conner is fantasy relevant.

    in keeper leagues its always present value + future value.    (unless you are a contender for the title... then you lean heavily on present value)

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