

Ray_T
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Posts posted by Ray_T
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In a PPR keeper league, should I make this trade?I get:
Clinton Portis RB WAS
Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAC
I give:
LaDainian Tomlinson RB SD
Steve Smith WR CAR
for PPR I like this deal.
You give up LT and get portis. Both players are similar age and probably have a similar shelf life. (I think portis is 1 year younger but has been oft injured so there are harder miles on the odometer, so I consider them both equal that way)
LT should provide more fantasy points than portis. Probably by 1 or 2 fantasy points per game.
but now you also get MJD for Steve Smith. I think you make up for the loss of LT and get a franchise player to build around.
I'd seriously consider the deal only because this is a keeper league.
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I'd probably go LT. I like LT as a top 7 RB this year and think this would give you 3 backs in the top 7 or 8. Slaton I have ranked more in the 10-12 range. I don't mind the idea of grabbing a WR here though, and I'd have Calvin Johnson and Randy Moss both very close to Slaton in overall value. Guess it just depends on personal preference of loading up on RB's versus making sure you have a balanced roster. You can always trade a RB later for a WR and something else if necessary.I'd consider LT, but if this is a keeper league, Slaton could possibly be a keeper for next year and I think that LT (due to his age) may not be a realistic choice for a keeper.
so depending on who your keepers are now, you may wish to go with Slaton.
If you KNOW for a fact that whoever you take here will not be a keeper for you next year, then LT is definitely your man.
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MJD much more appealing in point per receptions in my opinion. I'd actually rather take my chances with guys like Forte, Jackson, LT, Chris Johnson than Peterson in point per reception leagues. Unless Peterson goes for 2000 yards and 15+ TD's, he will never finish at the top of the league in a point per reception league. He can't make up for the catches difference.Using ur league scoring from last year, Peterson scored roughly 193 points. MJD scored roughly 204 points. I actually added up points based on when they had 2 or more receptions in a game. So in a year that MJD split carries with Taylor and had less than 200 carries, he still otuscored Adrian Peterson in this format. So i think MJD is in for a better year this year. In leagues that give 1 point for EVERY reception, MJD is far and away a better pick than AP. Like I said, Id prefer some other pass catching backs over AP, as he will get only about 20 catches a year.
I agree.
I am in another league at work that is PPR, but they award 1 point for every 5 yards rushing (as compared to the standard 1 point for every 10 yards)
If I cannot talk them into changing this to a normal format, I may consider ADP if I draw the first pick.... but with standard rules for PPR, MJD is clearly your man.
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If it isnt your only league or a big money league, then why not take some chances? Sometimes winning a league is all about the person who was willing to take the risk. Im in 4 leagues and I take fantasy football pretty seriously, but it gets boring to draft the same way in every league. So by the time i get to the 3rd or 4th draft, I try to use some different strategies. If Brady throws for 35+ TD's, you'll probably end up near the top of ur league. Thats why I dont understand the bashing of Steven Jackson around these boards. He is a HUGE upside pick. If he gets hurt, your season may be over, BUT if he stays healthy, he may win you the championship. I like making high risk/high reward moves sometimes. Your right, its not really sound strategy, but its ur team, so do what you feel comfortable with.a guy in one of my leagues plays this strategy. He usually finishes in the bottom half of the standings, but once every 5 years or so he wins it all.
So the strategy can work so long as you are selective about when & where to use it.
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Well, I dont like Farve's attitude he brought to the Jets, but like it or not, I think he is better than what the Vikings had.
I think the vikes will run a little less (in terms of percentage of run plays called), but there will be the same or more total carries due to fewer stalled drives.
I predict similar yardage, but more TD's for ADP.
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I wouldn't call him a super sleeper. A sleeper, but many people are aware of Housh leaving. Sure Coles came over but he is no Housh. If Palmer gets back to form and Henry stays on the field, I could see close to 10 TDs and he could even move into the #2 with Coles in the slot.I'd grab him in the last 3 rounds of a 12 team draft.
for a 10 team draft I'd leave him for the waiver wire and watch closely. if he starts strong I'd pick him up.
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Im getting ready for my 3rd year of FF drafting. And The first two years ive played both leagues ended with my league-mates and I saying to each other "who the @#$% woulda saw that coming?" I was told that these past two years have been more suprising than other years of FF and ill just have to take peoples word for it. But this year im considering not even looking at rankings, and just making educated guesses. I mean look at this.My first year the consenus top 3 wr were:
1. Marvin Harrison
2. Chad johnson/ochocinco
3. Steve Smith
all of them were generally busts
My second year the consensus top 3 wr were:
1. Reggie wayne
2. T.O.
3. And i think maybe even steve smith again i cant remember or was it Braylon?
Busttown, USA. Although some wayne was decent, but he wasnt No. 1.
So for those of you guys who have been playing longer than i have, what FF experts do you feel are consistent, because predictions always seem incorrect and every year the top 10 rbs have like a 50% bust rate (i made that number up so dont flame me). Funston's big board changes like the wind, and looks totally different from the start to the end of the season, so im afraid to use it. Guys like TMR have fun to read articles, but every other one is about a bad call he made adn the hate mail he gets. Andy behrens is a great writer as well but he doesnt really make many predictions he just kind ofstates facts, which can be helpful. All these guys make valid points, but hardly anyone makes accurate predictons. So what website or expert do you guys feel really makes good predictions? Back up your arguement. Dont give me 100 guys saying FFTODAY!!! Who picks the best sleepers and busts and so on? Also what do you guys think of predictons doing more harm than good because they are seemingly so innaccurate?
Valid points.
however, that is the reason I lean towards RB's and QB's more than WR's in drafts. There are more things that can affect the production of a WR.
The obvious downsides are typically injury to the player himself, or a change of coaching or a change of team (if it happens)
The less obvious things are:
1) if the Starting QB gets hurt or has a down year.
2) if the O-Line has a down year. (this will affect wideouts who run more deep patterns than it will slot receivers)
these seem to account for some of the poor performances noted above.
even the best expert cannot predict some of these things.
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Right.. Im saying in a PPR i think it makes sense to consider WR after MJD, ADP, Forte, Jackson, and LT at the LEAST. Chris Johnson and Turner could even be ahead of WR's....there are so many other factors to consider like roster requirements and what WR's you think you could land later... In PPR's id be very happy passing on a WR in round 1 and grabbing Smith or Wayne in round 2 and Welker in round 3... Then maybe taking a chance on a bounceback from Ochicino in round 4 or 5.
yeah,
I know what you mean.
If drafting late in the round, I think I go WR-WR and if I draft Early, I grab a RB. otherwise I try to get the best value.
obviously, if drafting late in round one and either LT, Jackson, or Forte fell to me at #8 I'd find it hard not to take my chances even if I wanted to go WR-WR on the turn.
but with this league being somewhat unpredictable, I try to plan for various possibilities. For all I know, there may be some people selecting QB's with their top 5 pick. (which would be pretty funny I think)
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What are the starting position requirements? If its 2 RB and 3 WR it could make a difference over 2 RB, 2 WR, and a flex. Also Im in a league with a ton of flexibility where we start RB, WR, RB/WR, RB/WR, WR/TE. In this format there may only be 10-12 RB's taken in the first 20 picks. In the other formats I'd say 13-15 is about right.Initially there were supposed to be 2 RB 3 WR and 2 QB, but it is looking like the plan has been changed as the league settings say 2 WR, 2 RB and 1 QB.
obviously if you start 3 WR, then it's fair to say WR's will be worth a bit more.
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I mentioned Brady. Manning I forgot and I guess would include.I would have Jackson in there. I think a better place to look is Fantasy Football Calculator.
MJD, ADP, Forte, Jackson, LT, Fitz, Chris Johnson, and someone will take Turner just a matter of when they feel his rushing stats will outweigh the fact he doesn't catch passes.
I wasnt expressing an opinion on the value of RB's. I'm just trying to figure out at what point it makes sense to draft a WR instead of a RB.
I just took the top 5 projected RB's on FFToday's board for illustration purposes and the top WR on the board. I have yet to tweak them based on my own personal preferences. At this point I am assuming that the FFtoday rankings are accurate projections (which may not necessarily be the case as I do not actually expect forte to go #2 overall... I think a ranking of #4, #5, or #6 is more realistic)
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Non RB's that should go in the top 20 : AJ, Moss, Fitz, Calvin, Drew Breesso 15 is the most RB's that will go. BUT ,any drafts will also see Brady, Wayne, S.Smith and a possible curveball as others mentioned such as Jennings or Roddy.
10-15 is the answer.
Based on the FFToday PPR rankings, With an estimate of 10-14 RB's going in the first 20 of a 10 team PPR draft, it would appear that the top 6 picks should look something like this:
MJD
ADP
Forte
LT
Portis
Fitz
with the possibility that any one of the above picks may go up or down by one or 2 rankings.
does this seem right to you?
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Non RB's that should go in the top 20 : AJ, Moss, Fitz, Calvin, Drew Breesso 15 is the most RB's that will go. BUT ,any drafts will also see Brady, Wayne, S.Smith and a possible curveball as others mentioned such as Jennings or Roddy.
10-15 is the answer.
I am guessing there may be one or two Guppies in our draft so I am thinking that Manning & Brady are also possible top 20 players
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i voted 'none'.fitz/megatron/moss/ajohnson/wayne/shrimp will go in the first 20; if its a 10-teamer, and 20th is at the swing, maybe even welker if the owner has a big enough hard-on for him [220recs in 2yrs].
despite the hype, brees should also go in this span.
that's 7 players; allow for at least 1 curveball [brady, jennings, roddy].
hey that's cool. I want all opinions.
what I'm in the process of doing is calculating a best case scenario and a worst case scenario.
for example:
in an 8 team league, assuming the players go in the order that FFToday has them ranked for PPR, It would appear that the dropoff from the #9 pick (assuming 7 of the first 8 picks are RB's with the other one being the top ranked WR (Fitz) The projected dropoff assuming a Best case scenario where 7 of the next 14 picks are RB's we are looking at a 23 point dropoff but a worst case scenario where 10 of the next 14 are RB's it looks like a drop of 41.9 points.
At the WR position the projected dropoff from AJ at 298 Fantasy points to 246.8 (assuming 8 WR's go in the next 14 picks before you pick again) it looks like a drop of 52 points. worst case scenario is 10 WR's go before I pick again.... a drop to 241.4 (drop of 56.6 points) it would appear that at this point in the draft for an 8 team league, the wise move is to grab a WR.
this poll is to develop my best & worst case scenarios for these projections to determine at what point it makes sense to move from RB to WR.
from what I can guess, the first 5 picks should be RB's after that, you should think about grabbing a WR. I am trying to figure out at what point it makes sense to do this. whether it is at pick 6, 7, or 8 is the key. (No, I do not yet know what my draft position will be)
this way, I can at least do the best I can do in the first couple of rounds where it matters most.
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Got a few new guppies to my league too... they make pick certain players way earlier than they are supposed too.. like one year we had a guppy who picked Roethlisburger in the 1st round.. i nearly ###### myself... than he led our league in points in almost won the league cause Burger got him 31tds that year... pure luck... but it happens.....Guppies can only help all the preparation you have done for the draft though and as long as you base your draft on Value you can't go wrong... because you will be getting great Value in the middle rounds of the draft especially while the guppies are filling roster spots
so they may change up the 1st two rounds.. and things may go unexpectedly like you said.. you have never been in a league with these people before.. but will all the preparation you have done.. that can only be to your advantage... cause they will most likely be filling roster positions while you are drafting for Value with purpose and poise behind each and every pick.. and slowly building up your roster
one thing... random thought... i don't draft kickers.. i just pick them off the waiver wire.. i'd rather pick an unsure thing in the draft and wait and see what happens in the pre-season than waste a spot with a kicker... besides there are always approximately 5 kickers every year that are great waiver wire pickups and even permanent roster pick ups...
As far as drafting kickers go, I'd be inclined to go the same route. this league (and my other competitive league) you have to at least draft (or buy in the case of the auction) enough players to fill your starting lineup.
I'm fine with this. it does not affect my strategy.
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Aww, but you forget that the robbed bank takes extra precautions (security / monitoring) that they did not before. Much the same way a player is wearing a brace or taking extra precautions. The virgin bank is ripe for the picking and think they are untouchable so they run head first into a strong safety.he also doesnt realize that some banks are robbed more often because of location & getaway routes & proximity to police stations. So these places get hit more often than other banks regardless of precaution.
Ditto for injuries.
certain types of injury----> more prone to reinjure or more prone to injure a related muscle group due to the weaker link in the chain.
certain people also have lower bone density and are more likely to have a broken bone.
players who do a decent off season workout program are less likely to get hurt than players who do not.
Players who play on an artificial surface are more prone to certain injuries than those who play on a grass surface. (I am sure that certain injuries may be more likely to occur on a grass surface as well, but do not know the stats on this)
so injuries can (at least to a degree) be predicted.
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Hey guys, the question explains itself.
Please answer based on how you expect a normal PPR league would draft.
also, please comment on the following:
I am in a work league. new startup Keeper league PPR.
never drafted with these guys before, but I expect that most will be knowledgeable to some degree, but one or two likely will be Guppies.
If you think this will seriously affect the poll noted above, please comment on this as well. My expectation is that 1 or 2 non RB's will go earlier than expected based on this, but really I havnt got a clue because I dont know how good my opponents are.
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yeah 60% seems about right. but there are cases where 55% works.
especially if its a case where the Team gets way far ahead and pulls the starter on a number of occasions (to prevent injury)
if there are a number of games like this for the team (as was the case with the chargers a couple of years back where Turner got a lot of carries when the chargers were up by more than 2 TD's)
so dont go strictly by the numbers.
look at the reason the RB got less than 60% of the carries and make a call based on that.
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I'm in a 12 team 2 man keeper league. Standard scoring, 6 pts for all TD's, .5 PPRI am planning on keeping Andre and Moss. I have an offer of Slaton for my 3rd round pick, or ADP for my first round pick (which is first overall.) The top +/- 24 players will be off the board obviously, so I could theoretically go with Andre and Slaton and then take Moss with the first pick in the draft, or I could give up that pick and take ADP and Andre.
One thing that is possible is that the guy with those two players also has Fitz. So if I do nothing and he doesn't make trades, I could grab Fitz in the first round.
What would you do?
Slaton for a 3rd is an amazing deal in terms of value.
ADP deal is also really good, but a move like this is really costing you two players instead of one because you can still only keep 2 and wont have a first round pick.
If you make the move for ADP, make it knowing that this next year will be a bit of a writeoff unless a lot of your late round picks pan out.
Personally, I'd make the Slaton deal because in a PPR format he's not that far behind ADP as he would be in a regular format and the cost is somewhat minimal and you can still select a great player with the #1 overall pick.
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russell won't be doing that work...look for Mendenhall (maybe) more likely Frank the Tank!!!I wouldnt expect Mendenhall to get any amount of carries until he solves his issue with dropping the ball.
IF he can prove in pre season that he can hang onto it, you can expect him to get 10-15% of the carries early in the year and that number will go up as the year progresses.
The last few weeks, He may get as many as 35% of the carries to keep FWP fresh for the playoffs (and to get him some playing time as an insurance policy in the event they cant sign Fast Willie again)
just remember, the key word here is IF. If he keeps dropping the ball, he wont get much play and Pitt will may look into drafting another RB next year.
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I just completed a recent mock and actually went WR-WR-WR and still ended up with a decent stable of backs. There's a risk for sure but if you get the right backs the rewards can be high. I do realize however that some people may not be as high on some of these RBs as I am.QB Kurt Warner ARI 6.06
QB David Garrard JAC 10.06
RB Chris Wells ARI 4.06
RB Thomas Jones NYJ 5.07
RB Ray Rice BAL 7.07
RB Willis McGahee BAL 8.06
RB Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 9.07
WR Randy Moss NEP 1.07
WR Calvin Johnson DET 2.06
WR Dwayne Bowe KCC 3.07
WR Percy Harvin MIN 11.07
WR Steve Smith NYG 12.06
WR Patrick Crayton DAL 16.06
TE Jeremy Shockey NOS 14.06
PK Matt Bryant TBB 15.07
DT Chicago Bears CHI 13.07
Nice draft.
This actually goes with something else I was going to say.
If you arent selecting top tier RB's early, I think it wise to select an extra RB or two in the later rounds in the hope of uncovering that Late round sleeper.
from the looks of your team you grabbed a few lowervalued players with high upside.
Jones is steady. May not produce like last year, but should be an adequate RB2
Wells is a gamble, but could be a #2 or low end #1 if all goes well for him.
Rice & McGahee: one of them will be the starter. Between the two of them, you have your RB1 there somewhere. It's just a question of who and when.
Bradshaw: could also put up #1 numbers if Jacobs gets hurt.
Your WR's are excellent
at QB you are fine with Warner, and Garrard is a steady, but unspectacular QB2.
There is a lot of upside here, and if more than 2 or 3 of your RB's pan out, you have trade bait if you need to upgrade yourself somewhere else.
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good point, I know there are so many scenarios that could play out, and I woul dnever let a top 5 back pass me by, but I guess I am playing devils advocate.I just wasn't sure if anyone has tried this method before drafting from this position...
I have seen the strategy done in my league a couple of times.
but we start 2 QB and 2 RB, and that format makes it tougher to do this.
the results in our league (at that time a 10 team league) was that the team was weaker than average at either RB or QB at the end (usually RB)
The strategy can work if you get a number of 2nd or 3rd teir RB's who you think have some good upside. Based on what I have seen this year, I'd say your chances of making this strategy work would be better than they have been over the last 3-4 years.
also, of all the RB's projected to have 'down years' I'd say that they cant all have a down year. some of them have to have a good year. You just have to figure that out.
so if you go with this strategy, do your homework on this years RB class. Research not only the RB himself, but his O-line and projected performance compared to last year.
ie. is the line old and in decline? or young and on the rise?
Look at additions and subtractions to the line and any coaching/scheme changes.
I find this seems to work well, because the line is 50% responsible for the end result in the running game. The coaches and their scheme is responsible for 20-30% and the RB himself for the rest. There are a handful of RB's who are so good that they will perform regardless of what the coach and the line do, but this is the exception and not the rule. (and players like this are usually not sleeper picks)
Case in point:
Houston last year: New coach (from Denver) Switched to a zone blocking scheme (which relies more on speed & technique and not power like a traditional scheme for top run teams) Their line was adequate at best, but the scheme improved the run game. also, they had a 3rd round pick (slaton) who was suited to such a scheme and had a really good camp, looked excellent, but fell just short of getting the starting job.
The starter was Ahman Green. Oft injured, and at the tail end of his career.
Slaton was the perfect Sleeper pick.
this is where research helps you out. Not many people had him on the radar, but there you are.
this is the research you need to do to uncover those late round gems.
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Do not nominate players you want, until the end of the auction. Instead....nominate players with the same value as the guys you want. Get owners to spend money on guys you don't want.Don't paint yourself into a corner, either. Don't get set on a certain player, and pass up value, then end up overpaying for the player you wanted. Try to keep an open mind, and an evolvoing strategy. If WRs are going for a l ot more than expected...you better be prepared to change your budget around and spend more on WRs and a little less on a different position.
Don't get caught running up the price.
No matter what happens, your league will never want to do a snake draft again!
I agree that once people know you are after a certain player, they will bid him up to a point where you are ripping yourself off to buy.
I disagree on exclusively nominating & bidding on players you dont want. Sooner or later people will realize your strategy and leave you with some of these players you dont want.
You need to mix it up a bit.
sometimes nominate someone where you know someone else wants him. Sometimes nominate someone you want. But always make sure you are a moving target. Dont let anyone know what you are thinking.
but the key is to NEVER let anyone know who it is you are truly going after.
one of my tricks is to talk up a player I know someone else wants, and make like I want him bad, and get into a bidding war with that person (or persons) and bail when the price gets too stupid.
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i see your point, but i still don't think MJD and Barber are that different.... they were both used in their first 3 years as complimentary running backs that specialize in 3rd down and goal-line situations who had great success in those roles. in the 4th season, they became featured backs. i'm not suggesting that MJD will fail... Barber didn't really "fail" last year. he was a top 5 back before injuries to himself and Romo. also, thanks for pointing on the injury to Romo, i forgot that Barber's injuries happened soon after that. but if i recall correctly, it wasn't just a toe injury... first it was a broken rib and then the toe.the difference between MJD & Barber vs. Gore, Dwill, & Michael Turner, or any other running back that went from a time-share/back-up to a featured roll is that those other guys weren't drafted in the first round. Turner was 3rd/4th round, Dwill was 8th round, and i don't know where gore was drafted after his rookie season.
actually i'm REALLY hoping that Rashad Jennings shows some ability in training camp because i think he's needed to take 5-10 carries a game. I don't want MJD to have more than 15-17 rushes/game, because that will put him north of 240-270 carries for the season.
again, how many carries do you think MJD can handle over a season?
these numbers from last year suggest that MJD already has handled a large number of touches successfully:
197 rushes
62 receptions
13 KR
7 PR
279 total touches
I think MJD and barber are radically different.
Yes, they are the same in the sense that they were backups who have had their role expanded, but that is where the similarities end.
MJD's game is speed Speed and more speed. He is a top WR out of the backfield (as far as RB's go) and he creates mismatches in the secondary. He's more likely to break a run by rounding the corner on the outside. and he gets lots of his TD's by breaking long runs or catching a pass and breaking a tackle or two.
Barber's game is Power Power Power.
He does not evade people with his speed. He runs over them like a truck and he does not catch a huge number of passes out of the backfield. He gets most of his TD's in short yardage situations (red Zone)
in terms of Wear & Tear, Barber will beat up his body a whole lot more than MJD ever will, but he also has a big body to abuse.
Guys like Barber typically will have one or two monster seasons before their body wears out. (typically due to the hard miles on the odometer) so when you think of him, think of the Bus or any other power RB you can think of. He is as boom or bust as you can get (due to the risk of injury)
guys like MJD are smaller, and the risk of injury is greater because of that... but he does not play a heavy contact style, so he is more likely to be able to endure the pounding.
Yes there are risks with both players, but I'd take my chances with MJD ahead of barber.
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Damn, you guys are harsh on Tarvaris!Did you see how he went 3-1 in weeks 14/15/16/17 with a close loss to the falcons.
He went 57/89 for 68% passing with 8 TD and 1 INT, not too shabby!
Granted he didn't have the best playoff games, but it was his first, and he threw the ball 35 times... anytime Tarvaris throws the ball 35 times it's more bad playcalling/coaching than his fault, especially against a pretty good Eagles D.
Seems like when he's finally getting it they're starting to give up on him... NOT ME! Jackson = fantasy football sleeper gem! lolz
Conversely, Favre finished up his 08 campaign gloriously, and single handedly cost his team a playoff spot! Weeks 14/15/16/17 he went... 55/132 for 42% passing w/ 2 TDs and 8 INTs. Pity another team will hamper their QBs development to sell some tickets/jerseys to a washed up ego-maniac.
“We’re a team and we win together … but at the same time, you can’t turn the ball over and expect to win,” Jones told Hot 97 FM.
“The other day, the three interceptions really hurt us. I mean, that’s just reality,” Jones told the radio station. “If I were to sit here and say, ‘Oh, man, it’s OK,’ that’s not reality. … I don’t like it, I know everybody else on the team doesn’t like it.
Jones went on to say Favre’s careless play hurts the team jeopardizes every potential victory.
-Thomas Jones
An anonymous Jets players also piled on Favre, stating he never talked to the team and was very standoffish.
“There was a lot of resentment in the room about him. He never socialized with us, never went to dinner with anyone,” the player told Newsday.
http://sports.popcrunch.com/thomas-jones-j...te-brett-favre/
While this may sound harsh, Favre (IMO) didn't learn the playbook for the Jets, won't for the Vikings, plays the same way he did ten years ago without the physical/mental tools necessary, and will lose more games for the Vikings than he will win.
Not going to dinner with anyone is one thing. He is a family man, and if he is making time for his family, I dont blame him.
but If he is not going to even talk to teammates, that is just poor. Also, there is no excuse for not learning the playbook. That just shows a lack of committment on his part. At his age, if he is going to be worth anything to anybody, he needs to be committed to the team and committed to winning.
so if the above is true, he truly is finished and I'll call it right now.
Farve is done.
So what are your predictions this year for fantasy football?
in FFToday Board
Posted
Farve retires before this season ends.
McFadden will show us why he was selected #1 last year, and Russell will be better against weaker pass defenses, but will struggle otherwise.
Ray Rice will be named the permanent starter at some point this year. (probably late in the year)