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Ray_T

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Posts posted by Ray_T

  1. Posted

    4-55-1 this week

    7-100-1 last week

     

    maybe the worm has turned?

     

    You know what.

     

    I've been excited about Chris Henry a number of times in the past and have learned to temper my enthusiasm.

     

    it seems he never translates a good pre season into a good regular season.

     

    I'm sure it will happen sooner or later... but I just dont know if I want to risk anything more than a late round pick on the guy.

  2. Posted

    This will not affect ADP's value much (if at all)

     

    This offense still revolves around ADP and Farves addition will not change this overly much. He will be more of a game manager than a game changer.

     

    take ADP's value pre-Farve. Assume that the pass run ratio slides towards passing by 1-2%. Now observe that the lost carries will be regained because there will be less drives stalling on 3rd down. (Farve is pretty effective in 3rd & short situations.) so drives that would have stalled last year will continue this year and he will get more carries which should roughly offset the lost carries due to the shift in the pass/run ratio.

     

    I know people are not thrilled with the # of INT's Farve throws, but keep in mind he was playing on a team that is not nearly as good as the one he is on now. It's a lot easier to play conservative when you have the lead as compared to when you are playing from behind. As such, I see Farve taking less chances with the ball. It's still a risk, but not to the same degree that it was last year.

     

    on that note: I do not think Farve will set the world on fire in Minnesota. I think he will put up adequate numbers, but not much more than that.

     

    he is a step up from what they had.... but not as big a step up as many would have you believe.

     

    As far as ADP goes, I project the same numbers (maybe slightly higher if Farve plays well enough to stop teams from stacking the box against ADP) but I do not believe his numbers will go down as a result of this signing.

  3. Posted

    Thanks for the suggestions, but I don't think anyone else in the league minds the structure.

     

    I am just convinced that not spending all of my money during the auction is a mistake. So, what I've done in the past is draft a backup kicker and backup defense for the minimum during the auction so that I can spend all of my money and not worry about it during the season.

     

    It just kills me to have 2 kickers on my team coming out of the draft. :headbanger:

     

    this works fine if you dont have any limits on roster spots.

     

    but most leagues have a limited number of roster spots and once you hit max, you cannot draft anyone else.

  4. Posted

    1. Larry Fitzgerald

    2. Randy Moss

    3. Andre Johnson

    4. Megatron

    5. Steve Smith

    6. Reggie Wayne

    7. Roddy White

    8. Wes Welker

    9. Jennings

    10. Boldin

    11. Bowe

    12. Ocho Cinco

    13. Marshall

    14. Housh

    15. Colston

    16. Roy Williams

    17. Santonio Holmes

    18. Vince Jackson

    19. Anthony Gonzales

    20. Santana Moss

    21. Berrian

    22. Desean Jackson

    23. Kevin Curtis

    24. Cotchery

    25. Eddie Royal

    26. H. Ward

    27. Donnie Avery

    28. Braylon Edwards

    29. Lance Moore

    30. Hixon

     

    Honerable Mention: Breaston, Torry Holt, Steve Smith (NYG)

  6. Posted

    I'd keep Deangelo in the 4th. You still have your 3rd rounder to snag a WR. Or hell, you could still prolly snag Pierre if for some reason you wanted another top RB.

    I agree.

     

    no need to keep Pierre when you can get him back in the draft(if you want him)

     

    Personally I'd say DeAngelo is looking to have pretty good upside now that Stewart is hurt. You dont want to deny yourself that upside.

  8. Posted

    I think the Lions should jump all over Matt Jones. They would have two 1000 yd+ guys then IMO.

    The last thing a last place team needs is a player they may need to babysit.

     

    a more likely location for him would be Chicago where they also need WR's and they have some decent veteran leadership in the dressing room. This way he does not have to go in and assume any kind of leadership role.

  9. Posted

    5) the best advice I have is to nominate every player you DON'T want early, so OTHER people bust there nut early

    4) I think you spend every dollar and figure you have 3/4/5 rosters spots at league minimum ( 5 spots @ $1 = $5); so now you have $195 for 11 spots...

    3) pay for starting WRs/TEs/QBs & grab young/backups RB for years ahead

    2) QBs are fantastic trade bait since there is a limted amount of good ones... and most wont spend $$ on a backup #2 QB.

     

    #1 STRATEGY

    keep track of EVERYONEs rosters as the rosters fill up, know who needs what and HOW MUCH $$ they have left to spent. this is biggest piece of crucial info that will allow you a big advantage.

    well, there is no question that it is important to know who has money to spend and how far they can go without hurting their own team.

     

    I suggest you study to find out what players are generally selling for. If your league does not have the same amount of money to begin with, you need to pro rate those values into values that apply to your league's buget. (If auction values listed in a mag or website are based on a $200 budget, and your league goes with a budget of $100 or $150, then you need to prorate those totals accordingly)

     

    the above strategy has it's benefits, but I suggest you dont always Nominate players you dont want early. you need to mix it up somewhat. If you are a moving target, people wont know what you're up to and will become scared to bid against you if they dont see a pattern to your behaviour. and if you nominate first or second I'd say it may be worth your while to nominate someone you actually want as I have found that the first & second player up for auction go for less than market because many people dont know what the market is (yet).

     

    if you do not nominate the first or second player, do not be afraid to bid on the first or second one up.

     

    also, know where it is worth your while to spend money.

     

    know your rules inside and out. including roster spots and how many you start at each position.

     

    a league where you start 2 QB, for example would mean that you need to spend a significant dollar amount on your First QB and a decent amount on your second one. A league where you start only 1 QB means you dont spend huge money on a QB at all unless you are getting one in the top 5.

     

    either way, this is a good place to begin. I cant give you much more unless I know your leagues rules

  10. Posted

    I have the option of keeping Warner for a 13th round pick...at first I was surely going to do it, but lets face it, last season was a miracle season for the ages. Warner cannot reproduce what happened last year, no matter what everyone else wants. I didn't know about any of this hip stuff though, the guy who said he is one hit away from disaster is probably right...all its going to take is for a 300 pounder to land on that sucker and it will be over.

     

    Lucky for me I have the option of keeping Jacobs for a fifth rounder...that is pretty solid value imo.

    maybe you should look into trading Warner. Perhaps someone out there will want him. I am not one of those people who would be buying, but I am sure that someone may be willing to take a chance.

     

    If you decide to trade him, you should go for it early before too many of the people out there hear that Warner looks terrible in training camp.

  11. Posted

    Yeah, I'll tell you a big named RB who had Microfracture surgery.......

     

    Terrell Davis

     

    How did that turn out for him? He'd be breaking Smith's all time rushing record right about now if it worked on RB's knees.

     

    wasnt he reasonably old when he had it?

     

    either way, I expect the surgical technique has been somewhat refined since Davis had his surgery done.

     

    In that article I mentioned they list some players that had the surgery and who it worked on and who it didnt. I still cannot find the article, but I am content that someone with no previous injury would be okay with the surgery if they arent too old.

     

    if anyone finds the article in question please post a link here.

     

    thx.

  12. Posted

    Dog owner here. Can't stand Michael Vick for what he did. But I believe in 2nd chances and redemption and if he has the ability to play in the NFL and he's done his time it would be UNAMERICAN to hold him out. He's been punished much worse than most people who get convicted of crimes. Not everyone loses 10's of millions of dollars. He's been abused by the public, lost all his money and will catch abuse the rest of his life.

     

    I think the guy deserves a 2nd chance.

    I think Philly is crazy to bring in another QB.

    I think Carolina should have signed him.

    He'll fail as a part time player. He'll succeed if he ever starts again.

    Well, there are certainly other clubs that probably needed him more (Minnesota, and possibly Carolina) but they obviously didnt show enough interest.

     

    either way, Vick will likely be a starter somewhere before the end of his contract. Philly may end up trading him to a team in need of a QB or may start him if McNabb gets hurt. If that's the case they still improved their team because Vick didnt cost them anything other than his salary.

  13. Posted

    I look at key training camp battles.

     

    I also look at young WR's or RB's to see what they do well and what they do not.

     

    sometimes a team will post a depth chart, but sometimes that depth chart is designed to keep players from whining about where they are on it.

     

    you may have a vet who is the #2 guy, and a rookie drafted in the first or 2nd round who is playing well, and you put the rookie below the vet to keep the vet from getting angry.

     

    so this is the time where you really see what the kid can do.

     

    young RB's I look for the following:

     

    can he block in pass protection? To what extent is he effective ---> allows you to be able to tell if the kid can play on 3rd down

    how does he run? does he have the patience to wait for the hole to develop? when he sees the hole, does he run through it aggressively?

    How is his strength/power?

    How is his speed and elusiveness?

    can he catch passes out of the backfield?

     

    As WR's are different I look at the following:

     

    Blocking --> an underrated skill. can he do it?

    Route Running _---> how good is he at running routes? does he have to slow down when he makes his cuts, or can he do his cuts at full speed?

    speed--> Both Straight line speed and speed in his cuts

    Hands ----> does he catch the ball with good technique and tuck the ball away?

    body control ---> can he control his body to gain an advantage over the defender to get to a ball? can he twist & contort his body in the air to make the amazing grab?

    smarts ----> does he make the right call in reading a defense and run his route accordingly

    chemistry ---> is he on the same page as his qb with respect to reading the defense and going to where the QB wants him?

    finally, how is he after the catch? does he break tackles

  14. Posted

    Vick's gonna be on their 53 man roster. Guaranteed. Pretty savy move by the Eagles. Now if McNabb gets hurt they have a good QB that can step in.

     

    I dont know about good, but hes a guy who can be good.

     

    the signing makes sense on many levels. Vick plays the style that McNabb played early in his career, and if anyone can Mentor him to improve the passing side of his game, it would be McNabb.

     

    With the injury to Kolb, and the age of McNabb I do believe that Vick sees an opportunity to jump in with a good organization and learn a lot of things.

     

    I thought he was going to want to be a starter, but I get the impression he wasnt offered a starting gig anywhere. So this may well be the second best option.

     

    Also as a backup he is ideal, his running style will throw some teams off, so when he comes in it may throw a defense into disarray. Whether that be as a wildcat QB or otherwise.

  15. Posted

    just wonder how people felt. in almost every mock draft ive done Brees gets picked before him. only reason for that has to be people are concerned he will not be the same as before the injury. if he looks like 2007 Brady in the preseason you have to have him ranked above Brees. guess you dont have to, but you should :headbanger:

    I"m not concerned about the injury and I'd pick Brees ahead of Brady.

     

    Brees can perform regardless of the talent around him. Last year he had a bunch of injuries to the WR's and still threw for 5000 yards.

     

    5000 YARDS with backup WR's in the lineup. Can you say low risk?

     

    Brady is no slouch, but that one season when he & moss hooked up for an unreal number of TD's was a once in a lifetime season and I doubt you will ever see that again.

     

    if you wanna select Brady ahead of this guy go ahead, but I'm not.

  16. Posted

    I never bought into all the D. Ward hype. Yes, Ward is a talented RB who had a great 1000yd+ season last year, but Graham has done nothing but produce since being thrust into the lead back situation at TB a few years ago. So I never saw Ward as a "featured RB, but rather foresaw some type of RBBC from the outset. The only reason I had Ward higher on my list than Graham is that his ADP was (is) going out much higher (4.11) than Graham's (9.12). So on MY list I had Ward (round 5) 3 rounds earlier than Graham (round 8). Now the news out of Tampa Bay has been very good on Cadillac. He's running with good explosion and they are splitting the 1st team practice rep's equally among the 3 backs.

     

    I'm definitely going to lower Ward about a round on my draft list, and elevate Graham only slightly. This means that someone else will likely draft Ward, while I'm likely to draft Graham as a RB3/RB4/flex.

     

    Caddy, who is not on my board at all at this point (and not on any ADP list either), COULD (but I doubt it) become a late round flier pick for me if he still looks 100% healthy by the end of August when my drafts are held.

    Graham has never had a year where he has put up 1000 yards.

     

    he traditionally gets around 4 yards per carry compared to wards average of around 5 yards per carry.

     

    I am sure we are likely looking at a committee approach anyhow, and this likely reduces the value of both of these players. We also dont even know if Cadillac Williams will be in the mix. I say likely not, but you have to acknowledge that the possibility is there.

     

    either way, they signed Ward to a free agent deal and from what I understand he is getting pretty good cash. This leads me to believe he will be the starter by default.

     

    I wouldnt bet the farm on it, but I'd bet a 4th round pick on him.

  17. Posted

    I try not to have the same players.

     

    but if I am drafting, I also want the best possible player. so if the player I think is the best is at the top of the list I am not going to take someone else just because I have him in another league.

     

    (that's what trades are for)

  18. Posted

    You should 100% keep Fitzgerald.

     

    As you said, Westbrook's getting older and is coming off an injury, while Fitzgerald is in the prime of his career in a pass-first offense. Plus, you can start 4 WRs in your league. And, with the bonuses that your league has for 100+ rushing/receiving, Fitz is the better pick because he's more likely to get 100 yds receiving than Westbrook is to get either 100 yards rushing or receiving, I think.

     

    Go with Fitz.

     

    :dunno:

     

    I agree 100%.

     

    Westy is damaged goods. you can not guarantee his health, and even if hes well enough to play, he has been injury prone over his career. he is now about to turn 30 and coming off of a major injury.

     

    how many strikes does a guy need before he is out?

     

    and Fitz may well be the best WR in the NFL. you are not losing out on much even if Westy turns out to be okay.

  19. Posted

    I want to know how you are seeing his lightning quickness from Cowtown?

    The training camp report I saw said he was looking extremely fast and dangerous.

     

    it also said he had swelling in the knee at one point too.

     

    Personally I wouldnt draft him, but that comment was for the benefit of those who will.

     

    :doublethumbsup:

  20. Posted

    don't know much about him, so this is outside looking in. Two things, holdouts by rookies are typically more agent driven then player driven. No doubt Crabtree wants to get out there and would probably sign something close just to do it, agent wants to net the top possible contract so that next year he can woo incoming seniors to sign with him. Can't put the blame on crabtree (entirely). Also, Singletary is definitely old school and a hard ass and I respect that. But he also is a former player and should know how things are done. I think he gives Crabtree a (very) little leeway with this. But like you said, I think its gonna be a brutal couple of weeks for the second WR drafted this year. As far as fantasy is concerned, I'm in a limited (2-man) keeper and I am staying away.

    Well, as long as Crabtree is not able to play due to the injury, I'm sure the agent sees no harm in holding out.

     

    Although Crabtree should be studying the playbook whether he plays or not.

     

    either way, I wouldnt worry about Crabtree yet. if it's halfway though the exhibition season and he's still holding out, then his chances of makinig an immediate impact would be rather slim.

  21. Posted

    We currently use allstarstats.com, but would like to switch to a new site this year. I'm not the commish, but am trying to help find a site that meets our specifications. It's easier for me to just copy his (the commishes) email than to try to put into my own words. So far no luck from within the league so any suggestions you FF'ers have will be appreciated:

    FYI, "evaluator" refers to FAAB evaluator (blind bids on free agents). Thanks again :pointstosky:

    Yahoo has all of those features and it is a free site.

     

    of course there is less flexibility in some of the other areas and you cannot customize your league.

     

    but if you dont do anything out of the ordinary with the scoring and if most rules in your league are standard, you may like it. Stattracker is free this year too (which was one of my pet peeves in years past)

     

    The Blind Bid free agent thing is new (I think) and our league is using it this year.

     

    I'm not saying it is the site for you. but it may be worth looking into.

  22. Posted

    Colston is still rated highly because he was never a burner before and put up great stats. So, people believe he's still capable if he's lost a half a step. His size and strength help him at WR. Guy is a monster as a wideout.

     

    Bush is totally dependant on speed. And he plays RB which is far more punishing. A slower Reggie Bush is the demise of Reggie Bush.

     

    with that being said, he has looked lightning quick in camp this year. Of course the swelling in the knee concerns me....

     

    If you are thinking about taking Bush I would suggest keeping a real good eye on the training camp reports and find out what the most recent news is on Bush's knee.

     

    and dont risk one of your first 3 picks on the guy. Even if the knee is healthy, Bush has had plenty of other injuries since making the NFL. The VERY earliest you should be picking him is the 4th round if everything looks to be okay.

     

    If everything does not look okay, then you discount his value accordingly or just let him become someone elses problem.

  24. Posted

    There was a really good article that came out about 2 months ago that directly addressed Colston's situation as well as that of Bush and a few others undergoing this procedure. but I cant find the article.

     

    The general feeling about this type of surgery is it tends to work well if the player is under 30 and has not had any prior issues with the knee or has not had the same procedure done before.

     

    so in Colstons case he has had issues with the knee before so his prognosis for a recovery is not what it would be for Bush.

     

    I cannot say much more about this as I dont remember all the details of the article. All I know is I dropped Colston in my WR rankings by about 12 slots due to the injury.

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