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Ray_T

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Posts posted by Ray_T

  1. Posted

    if you can get LT for gore & Bell, you should do the deal.

     

    He's worth way more than this in a keeper league.

     

    oh, another thing....

     

    premium players are hard to get. if you get a chance at one Like LT who still has a long career in front of him, you jump at the chance. Even if it hinders your ability to win this year.

     

     

    however, it's worth noting, this deal doenst hurt you at all now or in the future. so I say jump at this deal and make LT your main man

     

    :thumbsup:

  2. Posted

    I play in a 12 team standard league. My team is:

     

    McNabb/Warner

    LJ/Droughns/Addai/Rhodes/Benson

    Holt/Chambers/Housh/Mason/D-Jax/Henry

     

    I am considering a trade of

     

    Warner/Droughns for

     

    Simms/T. Jones/Walker

    Should I pull this trade off? Droughns had a bad week but could come around. Jones gives me the Chicago backfield. Warner is huge when healthy but how long will that be. Walker gives me some wr's to move if need be. Simms may come around. Is Jones an upgrade?

     

    Dont even think about this deal.

     

    I dont have a lot of faith in Sims. he looked terrible. agreed that was against baltimore.... but still... hes not anywhere close to being in warners league.

     

    T Jones isnt even guaranteed to start the year.

     

    While walker is good, I dont think hes good enough to warrant this deal.

     

    also, keep in mind, you're getting 3 and giving up 2, so you will also need to drop one of your other players to make this deal (unless you have an open roster spot)

  4. Posted

    I am in a 12 person league. Points are given for receptions, yards and touchdowns. I start one QB 2 running backs. 3 any combination of wr/ te's.

    I have Bledsoe and Favre

    RB's- L.J., Ahman Green, Reggie Bush

    WR's/TE-T.O. Hines Ward, Todd Heap, J-Shockley, K. Winslow

     

    I am leaning towards Bledsoe, Green, Bush, T.O., Ward, and Heap

     

    Thank You

    Ginger

     

     

    Well, I cant think of any reason why you wouldnt start Larry Johnson. hes the best RB you have.

     

    I'd start LJ and Bush this week.

     

    you may eventually want to look at dropping a TE in favour of a WR. WR's will generally get you more points than TE's...

     

    but based on the choices presented(assuming all are healthy), I'd start TO, Ward, and either Shockey or Heap (I'd take Heap... but if you dont know....flip a coin, they both produce similar numbers most of the time)

  5. Posted

    well, hes in a spot where he can put up some numbers.

     

    the only question is.... whether he will do it.

     

    I wouldnt pick him up with the expectation that he will start, but as a backup, I'd take him.... someone already picked him up in my league. I think he was gone within 3 hours of his signing a contract.

     

    if you have an open roster spot, I'd pick him up.

  6. Posted

    well, I wouldnt expect him to do the deal for Wayne. but I think its a good offer.

     

    he may counter with Andre Johnson.

     

    another option would be to offer moss up in a trade.

     

    moss is a top end talent, but the oakland o-line is so terrible, I dont think brooks will get the chance to throw him the ball enough for him to put up the numbers he is capable of.

     

    and brooks isnt the type who performs well under pressure (in my opinion)

     

    I think moss will have a temper tantrum sometime soon(probably by game 6) and then things will fall apart in Oakland.

  7. Posted

    My rankings:

     

    1) Bledsoe-Vs Washington. weaker defense than Jaxonville. TO will finally get on the same page as his QB and will do better. (extra motovation would be being on national TV)

     

    2) Pennington-looks like he hasnt lost a step even though hes been injured most of the last 2 years.

     

    3) Brady- with a depleted receiving corp, I wouldnt count on lots. Traditionally he hasnt put up big numbers anyhow. hes more the type to manage an offense than to put up big numbers anyhow.

  9. Posted

    I'd dump brooks and pickup Pennington.

     

    Alex Smith is a decent option, but I think he'll have a year like Eli manning did last year (but with less total yards)

     

    he will start out strong, and slow down as teams figure out how to defend him. He will have some very good and very bad games still, and Pennington will be more consistant.(less risk)

  11. Posted

    yeah, I think you'll win also.

     

    but if he's healthy, I'd start portis ahead of Taylor at RB.

     

    however, as it looks like you have this guy outclassed, maybe Taylor isnt a horrible option.... but he is going against carolina, so I wouldnt expect big yards from him.

  12. Posted

    you dont wanna trade him.

     

    I'm expecting he will definitely be one of the top 3 QB's this year and may even compete with manning for top spot.

     

    if it is a keeper league, he will be a keeper for years to come.

     

    The only guys I'd consider trading him for would be guys like LT, LJ, SA Rudi Johnson and maybe Ronnie Brown and peyton manning (of course)

  13. Posted

    okay, I'm going to try a projection on Alex Smith.

     

    I noticed something very interesting that is worth making note of that made me think I could do this, so I'm going to use some things from your technique to do a projection here.

     

    Let me know what you think.

     

    First, I'm going to compare Eli Manning #1 pick overall in 2004 and his rookie season to Alex Smith #1 overall in 2005's rookie year (numbers rounded to make reading & calculations easier)

     

     

    Manning 2004 9 GP 95/197 (48% comp pct) 1043 yds 6 TD 9 Int Yards per completion 11

    Smith 2005 9 GP 84/165 (50.9 comp pct) 875 yds 1 TD 9 int Yards per completion 10.5

     

    I notice a VERY close correlation in the numbers. completion % a little higher for Smith, but he had less TD's. (no surprise given the weaker supporting cast and less talented receivers with less experience)

     

    now, look at Mannings 2005 numbers:

     

    Manning 2005 16 GP 294/557 (52.8 comp pct) 3762 yards 24 TD 17 INT

     

    completions and attempts roughly tripled from the rookie year completion percentage went up by 4.5% TD's Quadrupled and Interceptions doubled.

     

    While this was an exceptional turnaround, Manning got a new top end receiver (Burress) and a very good coach Coughlin and a very good defense to give him lots of chances to do something with the football. Not to mention a top end TE and a very good set of Receivers (toomer and burress)

     

    Well I'm gonna surprise you.

     

    Alex Smith has a new receiver (Bryant) a new TE that is projected to become a stud (Davis) and a new RB (gore) that has some good skills.

     

    now, if we Triple the number of pass attempts that Smith gets he would end up with 495 attempts for the year. I think this number is a little high because he doesnt have the kind of defense that will keep opposing offenses off the field. Lets downgrade that to about 460.

     

    if we assume his completion percentage goes up by 5% we are looking at roughly 56%. I think this is also reasonable. this means he should complete 257 passes out of the 460 we project for him.

     

    Mannings yards per completion went up from 11 to 12.3. Let us do two calculations for smith. one if this number stays the same, and one if it goes up to 12.5 yards/completion. This will give us a best and a worst case scenario. Best case is 257 * 12.5=3212 yards Worst case: 257 * 10.5=2698 yards.

     

    So taking an average of the two, I project (2698 + 3212)/2=2955 yards projected for the year.

     

    this may seem high, but this stud QB has 2 new receivers who are solid and a new offensive Co-ordinator(Turner) who really knows what he is doing.

     

    to project interceptions, I double what he had (like what happened with manning) so he gets 22 projected interceptions.

     

    because he only threw one TD last season, I cant really do a proper projection, but I will do an interesting calculation.... Manning had one TD for every 15.8 completions as a rookie, and one for every 12.25 completions in his second year.

     

    I dont expect Smith will do this well cuz he doesnt have the ground game or a Tiki Barber/Brandon Jacobs. so lets assume one for every 14 completions. Based on this, I'm looking at 18 TD's

     

    Final projection: 257/460, 2950 yards, 18 TD's 22 int.

     

    The number seems a little high, but I dont think this number is unreachable... and surely if he is a first overall selection, you would like to think he has talent that is at least close to that of Eli manning.

     

    His pathetic rookie year was definitely a result of a weak team, horrible O-Line & poor receivers.

     

    This organization has given the kid some players that can do things and a proven coach who knows what hes doing.

     

    I drafted this kid to be my #4 QB, but I think he has some potential.

     

    so Matt, I'd like to have some insight from you to see what you think of all of this.

  16. Posted

    going into this year, I was really high on Cadillac.

     

    6 weeks ago, I would have traded Jones for Cadillac in a second. Now, the back spasms thing associated with Cadillac does scare me a bit, but with most sports, the Trainers are skilled enough to work these things out more often than not.

     

    you dont often see players retiring due to a bad back anymore. You will just see brief periods of lower production while the athlete heals themselves.

     

    I wasnt too keen on Jones coming into this year because I was burned by him last year with a bad season.

     

    I acknowledge poor coaching may have played a big role in that and the new coach sure has the team looking good.

     

    Based on the above, I'd keep jones.

     

    However, its a tough call and if you decide to pursue this, I'd do my homework to find out just how bad this back issue with cadillac really is. You may find you have got yourself a bargain if it turns out to be a short term problem. I think its worth the extra hour to do your homework and find out what the actual case is.

  17. Posted

    I really like Gore against STL as home. I'm not convinced that OAK def will let Lewis run all over them. They really showed up in the second half Mon. night stopping LT2 more than not.

     

    See mine please

     

    Jamal Lewis is not the same type of RB as Tomlinson is. He runs over people. Tomlinson uses speed to get away from them, and will occasionally use power to get a few extra yards.

     

    Lewis has proven that when he is healthy he can be one of the more unstoppable forces in the league.

     

    Right now he appears healthy, so if hes on my team I start him.

     

    I'd wait for gore to prove himself a little more before I'd consider starting him ahead of Lewis.

     

    not only this, but LT was stopped because they realized that Rivers was not going to throw the ball. So they stacked the box.

     

    now that Baltimore has McNair, they will actually be able to make a team pay for stacking the box, so I think lewis will be more effective than he has been in a while.

  19. Posted

    well, I am a believer that Clayton has some nice upside this season but finding info on him is near impossible. Crochery seems like a good pick-up (I'm hoping to add him as well), but I'm dropping a #2 TE as opposed to a WR (Clayton or R Brown) since it's really hard to tell at this point who is legitimate and who just had a good/bad week.

     

    If you have some flexibility at other spots, I'd definitely try and snag Crochery. If not, kinda a toss-up IMO between the two with Crochery perhaps getting the edge (12 targets, 1 TD and another TD called back).

     

     

    I have always wondered why people would keep more than one TE on their roster at any time other than a bye week.

     

    once you get past the top 8 TE's the dropoff in production is minimal, so a #2 TE is probably worth not much more than any other TE available on the waiver wire. As such, there is no reason to keep a roster spot for a #2 TE. (in my opinion)

  20. Posted

    Drop one of your D's. I only keep one defense at a time and usually leave a roster spot for miscellanous bye week fill-ins. What WR's are available off the WW?

     

    he's right. There is no good reason to have two defenses on your roster at this point in time unless your starting D has a bye week in week 3 (first week of the bye weeks)

     

    I'd drop one of your defenses and pickup a RB. your #1 is awesome, but there are a lot of question marks hanging over the heads of your other RB's.

  22. Posted

    well, Bush has proven his worth in game 1.

     

    he is playing an equally weak (maybe weaker) defense in game 2. Julius jones plays an adequate defense in game 1 in washington.

     

    I'd probably start Bush here, but in realitiy you can probably flip a coin.

     

    as for receivers, I'd start DJax and Rod smith.

     

    not keen on Smith due to his age, but they are playing KC (I think) and Kennison is not really a great option with green out of the lineup.

     

    I wouldnt worry about DJax. he is still the #1 guy there, and Branch wont get that many balls in the next game. it will take him at least 2 games to get up to speed on the offense.

     

    my guess is they will play Branch in certain sets, and they will probably teach him a couple of goal line plays so they can use him in the red zone. At best I'd say he will start 60% of the offensive plays. I'd predict 4 or 5 catches and 55 yards with a touchdown for branch.

     

    Remember, DJax actually put up huge numbers while Koren Robinson was in seattle. I dont think this is the type of situation that will hurt his numbers anyways.

  24. Posted

    Alright here's a the process I'll take with a floor-to-ceiling projection on Leftwich. I kept the 16-game projection I used from the previous response as the ceiling. I created this projection by taking the totals in each category from his game by game stats with the exception of the Cardinals game where he got hurt and multiplied that adjusted average by 16 games. I thought this artificially deflated his ceiling because it's going to be vitually impossible for Lefty to have a 2- attempt game if he finishes the season....

     

    But with the 14 and 12-game projections I included that clunker effort into the average score and then multiplied those average game totals by the amount of games. This gives these projections in what I'll consider a raw state:

     

    Fpts	Gms	Comp	Att	Yds	PTd	Int	Ratt	Ryd	RTd
185.28	16	277	480	3368	24	8	50	107	3
147.84	14	223	384	2702	19	6	39	85	3
126.72	12	191	329	2316	16	5	34	73	2

     

    Pretty wide range here. The thing that troubles me is the low interception totals, and probably what many people would question as a relatively high rush TD total for a stocky QB that looks plain awkward when he breaks the pocket.

     

    Honestly, I think the Ints need adjusting because in my day job it's better to project numbers that help you expect the worst within a reasonable cost/expectation and hope for the best rather than project with little room for a pleasant surprise. At the same time, I think the rushing TDs can be kept:

     

    1. Lefty has gotten in shape this year. I think it's a shocker, but they say he looks downright lean :banana:

    2. The presence of Lewis in the redzone and those other two tall guys are going to distract the defense enough for Byron to sneak a few of these scores in there. I believe it's quite reasonable he'll have 2-3 and unofficially believe 4-5 is likely.

     

    Personally I like how the rest of the stats look because the loss of Jimmy Smith as a reliable target should be made up for with a decent receiver at TE that will make enough catches to keep Lefty's percentage above 60%. That's my take anway.

     

    So from looking at these preliminary stats, do you think we're heading in the right direction? What do you think about the rushing totals and ints? Too little, just right, too much? Why?

     

    I think adding 2-4 INTs to these projections "looks right." This is why projecting is probably more craft than science. If I were to attempt a better explanation, I'd say Leftwich will still have some rapport to develop with Lewis and Matt Jones which might create crossed signals resulting in balls thrown right to a DB.

     

    After I get your answers, we'll make some final projections with these numbers.

     

    As for Eli...let's take a similar approach by removing his worst game from the average we take of last year's totals. His worst game is one of 3 choices.

     

    a. His week 13, 12 for 31, 153 yard, 0 score, 2 int effort.

    b. His week 10, 23 for 48, 291 yard, 0 score, 4 int effort

    c. His week 8, 12 for 31, 146, 1 score, 1 int effort.

     

    Personally, I'd choose the 4 int effort because I believe Eli will be less likely to throw 4 picks than throw for less than 200 yards and no scores. Especially in the NFC east and with a good running game that could help him out.

     

    Tell me whether you agree or disagree than then we'll move forward with some preliminary projections on Eli then work backwards with the skill players to see whether we should make adjustments to his totals.

     

    Sound good?

     

     

    Why dont you take the average of those 3 games and remove it from the average instead.

     

    This way you get a better Weighted average.

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