Ray_T
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Posts posted by Ray_T
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Ended up doing Westbrook and Lendale for Calvin Johnson and R2P9 in the rookie draft I took Roboskie.I just feel a little weak at RB now but Pierre Thomas Donald Brown and Derrick Ward could be studs I guess.
Who do you think my starters should be?
What do you guys think about the final trade?
Thx
well, the trade is pretty close to what I recommended earlier, so I cant really say I dont like it.
Your depth takes a hit, but your starting lineup is considerably better.
Gore, Thomas and Brown, and Ward are plenty decent RB's
Gore will be your #1 and Thomas is likely your #2 unless Brown gets the starting gig this year. Ward is splitting carries to start the season in TB, but may become the clear cut starter early in the season.
I think you are fine. You may want to draft another RB in the first round next year if Brown doesnt have the season you are hoping for, but I think the odds of this happening are fairly slim. If Brown does perform, I'd use next years 2nd round pick to grab another one to restock the shelves and grab a QB so that you have one in the pipeline in case something happens to Brees.
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well... looking at your team, and the rules you are playing by, I dont blame you for keeping who you are keeping.
if you could let us know who is likely to be the 4 or 5 best RB's I'll tell you if Fitz is crazy or not.
as it appears your team is in rebuilding mode anyhow, it may not be a bad idea to take a chance on Moreno. If he is the immediate impact guy the broncos are hoping for, it may be well worth the #1 pick to get him.
even if he doesnt perform until mid season, if you end up with a good, young RB you can keep & build around, you'll be a better team in the long run.
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I'd take LT and CJ personallyYep. LT & CJ
CJ will out perform Bowe by more than ADP will outperform LT
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As you can see from my roster, many holes to fill: do I trade the 1.10 pick for Felix Jones @ $24 or Lee Evans @ $48. Or just keep the pick???there is no way that Lee evans is worth $48. At that price, It is questionable if I would take him for free.
Jones is okay, but he's a #2 RB and the #10 pick (if you grab someone decent) should be as good as him and cost you less money.
If there is no decent RB to be had in the auction, then I'd consider grabbing Jones just cuz your depth at RB is so terrible, but the reality is that you may be best served by keeping the pick.
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I'd probably go with Ronnie Brown.
Rodgers is tempting but I think Brown is your guy.
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If they wanted him and they viewed him as being a franchise type of guy, then you would think that they would want to lock him up to a deal that is more than just this season. I would think that, if he plays as great as they would like him to play, then he is going to be a FA or they will have a hold-out situation next season. If you trade for a guy like that, you would think that they would want him locked up for more than just one season or two if they franchise him again next season.I agree that he is very risky and my point was that the team, by not signing him long-term, is providing further proof of that risk.
Well, there is also risk going the other way too. If they do sign him and he doesnt perform, he will cost them a lot more money than he is already costing them.
This way, they have a year to think about it, and if he does not perform, they dont give him another juicy contract. I am also speculating that they dont mind paying him if he can get the job on the field. so that part of the risk is perhaps not as concerning.
of course, there is no way to tell for sure what the people in the organization were thinking. All I know is we speculate, and make our decisions based on what we think they will do and how we think they will perform.
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I'm working on some statistical anaylsis to prove the correct way to draft a team. Obviously, there's no way to have a 100% confidence level, but factors such as past performance, current draft strategy and future projections have generated surprising results. The one factor that I've found particularly interesting has to do with positional scarcity.Now, I generate ratings for every player before my drafts and the thing that I've tried to do more of is adjusting ratings as players are taken. Being able to predict positional fluctuation can be the difference between praying for a player to fall during the draft and having already made the correct pick.
The common philosophy of not drafting receivers early and often may prove to be the most intriguing misconception.
There is no one formula that can tell you how to draft a team. I think there are too many variables to consider.
I, for one, will draft differently from the #1 slot in a serpentine draft than I will from the #5 or #10 spot, and my decision at the time is usually based on the talent left to me by those who draft before me.
I make it my policy to try to follow the following rules whenever possible (keep in mind, there IS an exception to every rule)
1) dont reach for a player if you think there is a decent (>50%)chance they will fall to you in the next round unless the upside of that player is too good to ignore.
2) always take the best player available regardless of postion (unless taking that player puts you in a bad position elsewhere)
3) Draft Fantasy Starters ahead of Fantasy backups unless rule #2 applies If this is the case, think twice about your decision before taking the plunge.
4) Never draft more than one TE, Defense, or Kicker. Even in dynasty drafts, they can be acquired rather cheaply and easily if you need another (or taken off the wire)
5) Do what is best for your team. do not worry about what others do for theirs.
If you can follow these rules reasonably closely, and avoid drafting Tim Couch, you'll never do that badly.
oh, and if someone tells you not to drink at your fantasy draft.... DO NOT LISTEN TO THIS MORON!!!!
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I'm not a KC guy, but my opinion is that he could be a #1 Fantasy QB. However if you draft him as such you better have plan B really close. I can see this guy being the 12th QB taken, but you prolly also need to draft #13 the next round as well.I like him, but I think he is risky. As a player, he is the product of good coaching and a good system with good talent. He is now going from this good organization (New England), to another organization that is not as good. He is also going from a team with top end talent, to a team with..... well, we will just say less talent.
the reality is, I think it will be at least a full year until he puts up #1 Fantasy QB type numbers. He needs to learn the system, develop Chemistry with the team, and get his game together.
remember, his first few games as a starter in NE were a little shaky, and I would be surprised if this wasnt the case in KC as well.
Some QB's are good enough to play well regardless of the talent around them, but I'm not sure that Cassel is that good.
I'd draft him to be my #2 QB, but I dont know if I'd want him as my #1.
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Just as you cannot predict a coach's future success or failure based on his first stint as a head coach.I totally agree. and rookie coaches usually have some of the decisions made for them by the GM or the organization. Indirectly, that was what I was saying in my post.
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Its diminimous because relative value shows diminshing returns as you get deeper in the draft.The last round you are taking fliers on guys, and i sincerely doubt that top half of the last round is getting higher quality talent than the last half... maybe if you compare it to a single source (and use it incorrectly as a value bible), but in the persecptive of the individual owners I would doubt the difference is really anything substantial.
In theory you are correct, in practice i think it becomes a non issue.
good post.
and true.
I cant think of too many drafts where the number of quality players selected in round 15 is much different than what you get in round 16 or 17.
If this were a 9 round draft I could see the point having some validity, but once you get much past round 12, we're talking about players who will only play if something goes seriously wrong with your team in terms of injuries or ineffective players (unless you get lucky and grab someone like Slaton like I did last year)
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QB hoarding should be legal and recommended.... 'Anti-hoarding' rules protect people who shouldn't be protected...Retarded to protect owners who neglect positions then whine about no quality being left... awful
Pointing at laughing at the guy who doesn't field a starting lineup is MUCH preferable...
that is why we kept 2 QB's in a 12 team league, and limited the # of roster spots. There is usually someone at the bottom of the standings who decides to pickup 2 or 3 backup QB's for purposes of hurting others, but in the end usually hurt themselves more because those slots reserved for backup RB's and WR's are taken up by backup QB's who wont add to their teams ability to win unless they have injuries at QB.
the Quote that usually comes out is 'how many sh!te QB's do you need to improve your team?'
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well, now that we are talking about belichick, the fact he has done well in NE does not mean he would do well elsewhere.
A coaches ability to do well is affected by a number of things:
1) the GM
2) the assistant coaches
3) the scouting staff and the talent they bring in for the coach to work with
4) the ownership & organization of the team
if the GM or the ownership is constantly telling the coach how to do his job, then the result is going to be different in most cases. (sometimes better, but usually worse) sometimes this means that the coach has to hire assistants that he doesnt want, or keep players he doesnt want. It may also affect the way you handle Malcontents in the dressing room, and stars on the field.
also: if you as a coach think the talent on defense is best suited to a Tampa 2 defense, but the GM insists you use a different one, guess what. He's your boss, and you do what he says or you are gone.
A coach does not just magically become the best in the league after being among the worst in the league. There are bigger reasons for a turnaround of this proportion. I agree, Belichick probably learned a thing or two from his failure in Cleveland, but I think it just shows that if you move from a poor organization to a good one, the results can be a lot different.
either way, back to the topic at hand: I think there is a good chance that Lewis's Replacement has yet to be drafted. Harrison may be the temporary solution if the wheels totally fall off for Lewis, but I dont know if he can cut it. I also dont know much about the rookie.
this is my best guess. the Browns next 1st round pick will likely be a RB.
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Which starting lineup would you rather have in 2009????6 pts for all TDs
1 pt for every 25 yds rushing and rec.
1 pt for every 3 receptions
Option A:
Kurt Warner
Adrian Peterson
Steve Slaton
Brandon Marshall
Braylon Edwards
Kellen Winslow
or
Option B:
Kurt Warner
Ladainian Tomlinson
Steve Slaton
Calvin Johnson
Marques Colston
Owen Daniels
Thanks
Tough call.
ADP is worth more than than LT, but he wont get the catches that LT will (which will close the difference in value somewhat)
I cant think of many people who would choose Marshall over Megatron
Edwards is inferior to Colston in terms of what I expect them both to do while healthy, but colston is coming off of another knee surgery (which concerns me a lot) so I consider those two to be roughly equal in overall value.
The TE's are more or less a wash. You could make an arguement for either one, although I prefer Daniels.
Based on the above explanation, I pick Option B with the deciding factor being Megatron and the PP3R (point per 3 receptions) that will add to the value of LT(at least to the point where the difference in his value and that of ADP is less than the difference between Megatron & Marshall)
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I agree he is a bit of a headcase.
I wouldnt want him as my WR1 this year(too risky), but maybe as a WR2 I'd be able to put up with his antics and inconsistant results.
He's also a decent choice in a 'best ball' format.
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I've run a fairly traditional league (from roster perspective, we do have 0.3 ppr) for 10 years now & been fairly happy with it. This year, however; a number of the owners have been talking to me about a two qb league. While I have never played in one, I have to admit I am intrigued at the idea of drastically changing draft strategy & the value of players. In particular, I'd like to shake up the way many people view the first few rounds as "rb/rb" or "rb/wr" or "rb/peyton(or whoever the top stud qb is)". However, I don't want it to just change QB to the hot position and have 12-15 qb's go off the board in the first two rounds either. I'd like to have a league system that rewards owners who think about value across positions and are rewarded for good choices. NOT "I must pick the best X available".Currently we start: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1K, 1 Team Def. Special teams yards/tds are awarded to individual offensive players only, not the team defense.
The only change would be to add a second starting QB.
To paraphrase the core point system, it gives all players the same points per category, regardless of position:
- all tds are 6 pts
1 pt per 10 rushing/receiving yards
1 pt per 25 passing yards
1 pt per 20 return yards
0.3 points per reception
Here's a few concerns I have about a 2 QB league. I am curious how other commishes have addressed them.
- Seems like it would be easy to completely run out of QBs if you have too many teams. I am considering capping it at 10 because of this, instead of 12. Thoughts on the max size of a two qb league?
- To avoid everyone drafting two qb's immediately, it seems like passing scoring would have to be lowered. What type of scoring have you used in two qb leagues?
- Is stockpiling of QBs a problem? Do people typically set a cap on the total number of qb's that can be held by a team to avoid this?
- To avoid stockpiling or running out of QB's, would it be better to have the second QB position be a QB/RB or QB/WR flex? In general I don't like flex positions though, as I feel it devalues lower scoring positions and a RB flex greatly increases scarcity of that position. QB/WR flex might be ok though?
Anything else that really made your two qb league suck the first year? Looking to learn from others mistakes
My league starts 2 QB's and surprisingly didnt have many issues. FYI, we switched from a draft format to an auction format last year.
1) one team unsuccessfully tried to stockpile QB's when we expanded to 12 teams, but we anticipated that this may happen and we limited the number of spare roster spots to 5 or 6. so if someone keeps 5 QB's in their lineup, they may not have a spare RB or spare WR. So if you feel that this will happen, just limit the number of spare players teams can have on the roster.
2) as a 12 team league, there are not enough backup QB's to fill all rosters, and this means that as a manager you make more decisions based on the typical health of your QB. and QB's are typically drafted 2-3 rounds earlier than in leagues with only 1 QB starter. (in your league with Pass TD's worth 6 points, you may expect an even split between RB's and QB's in the top 2 or 3 rounds of your draft) So some teams will pay a premium to have 2 starters who are rarely injured and go without a legit backup as compared to paying good money to get a player that will start 2 games (bye weeks)
3) Prior to switching to the Auction format, there has never been an issue with teams drafting QB's too early. They will go earlier than they would in a league where you only start 1 QB, but this really just puts them on par with RB's in terms of value (Top RB's are still more valuable than top QB's but not by a lot)
either way, if your league has only 10 teams, most of the above issues wont be a problem. I'd just look into limiting the number of spare roster spots for backups to prevent stockpiling of QB's. Otherwise, you will be okay I think.
- all tds are 6 pts
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In a 12 team dynasty PPR Start QB,RB,RB,WR,WR,WR,TE,DEF,K,FLEXI have
Brees,Collins, Pennington
Westbrook,Gore,Pierre Thomas, Lindell White, Leon Washington, Jerome Harrison, Donald Brown, Derrick Ward
Roddy White,Colston, Berrian, Mason, Nate Washington, Devery Henderson
Dallas Clark, Kevin Boss
The other team I am thinking of trading with does not have any RB's that start for their team, but is stacked at wide out and is looking to trade Calvin Johnson.
Should I trade maybe Westbrook for Johnson?
Westbrook is getting up there may only have a year or 2 left and Johnson has bright future.
I dont think there is any question, if he is willing to take westbrook for Megatron, you should take the deal & Run.
Honestly, I think he will want more than just Westy, and even if he doesnt, the concern is that the league may Veto this deal. To avoid this scenario I'd send him Westy, and maybe a young guy like Pierre Thomas, Lendale White, or possibly Derrick Ward and some kind of draft pick to at least give the illusion of fairness.
At this point in time, I guess it would be a call you would have to make to determine if your league is likely to go through with a veto of such a trade. Maybe Veto's are uncommon in your league and maybe they are not..... but if your league tends to veto more than one or two deals per year, the above trade as you proposed it would likely be one of them this year.
also, in my experience, its probably not worth your while to try to press the envelope. In my experience, once a team has a deal veto'd teams will scrutinize your deals in more detail going forward, so you will lose some good will (so to speak) if you do elect to push the envelope on this.
Just my two cents worth
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I have to pick 4 out of the 5 below, have * next to players I am leaning towards but could use some feedback.Will answer yours as well...
Start :
1QB
2RB
3WR
1TE
1K
1DEF
Scoring :
1pt./15yds run or rec
6pts/all tds
no pts or special teams, only Def (max 30 pts. for shutout, low yds.--deductions for pts. and yds)
1. Matt Forte RB CHI*
2. Roddy White WR ATL*
3. Gonzo TE ATL* (on the fence--will his production drop off?)
4. Eagles DEF* (with their DEF coordinator ill, will they still be aggressive?)
5.Santana Moss WR WAS (Will his production trump either Gonzo at TE or the Eagles DEF? Started fast last year and then pfffft)
I'd have to know more about what kind of scoring you have for your defenses (as it looks like your scoring is unorthodox)
either way I make it my policy to NEVER keep a defense as a keeper. There is always high turnover in terms of the best performing defenses and part of this is due to Strength of Schedule changes from year to year. Philly has a decent defense, but I'd say the defense would really have to be elite to consider keeping them. I consider the eagles to have a decent defense, but I would not consider them with the elite defenses of the league.
Since you only gave us 5 choices for your four keepers, I guess that means that if it were up to me, I would not keep the Eagles defense.
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obama will get to this eventuallygive him some time to deal with the other stuff
LOL!
but even Obama knows there is no pleasing some people.
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Nobody wants to reply to this? I didnt think it was that much of a loaded question.
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who cares? are you the same jackass who bitches about seat assignments and clocks at poker tournaments?jdon
I agree. who cares. at that late point in the draft it shouldnt matter.
it's just silly to make a big deal of this. However, if it is a big deal to you, then you can do it in your own league.
As for my league, I dont care enough to worry about it.
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I see odd number rounded snake drafts all the time. This irks me.The snake draft is designed to create a 'fair' drafting positions for all teams involved. Since we cannot accuratley predict how a fantasy player will actually perform the snake 'mathematically' is the best we have to make it fair. When I say 'mathematically' it means for instance the first two rounds. First pick in a 12 teamer gets 1 and 24. Add those together and divide by two (number of rounds) and you get 12.5. Pick 6 and 19 go together. Add them up and divide by 2? Equals an average draft number of 12.5. Same with the turn. Pick 12 and 13.
However this only works if there are even rounds. On odd number round drafts; the last half of the draft order gets screwed. They lose the last turn. This lost of the last turn throws off the fairness of the serpentine.
I like fairness. Odd number round drafts make me mad.
you are making a fuss out of nothing.
by the time you get to the 15th round, the difference in talent between the beginning & the end of the round is so small it's not even worth making note of.
In fact, I would say that in some drafts I've seen better players drafted in round 15 than in round 12. In my opinion, once you get to this point the advantage you get by having that one extra round is not worth consideration.
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Giving the salary of Bryant I wouldn't do it. You'd be giving up $22 in WR salary. Plus who knows how much you'd have to pay for your replacement defense. This deal already puts you less than $100 salary (if my math is correct) while adding another hole on a team that has some holes already.The only way this would make sense to me is if you could drop Gates and save half his salary. By picking up a mid level TE. In which case you have to believe Bryant will outscore Ward by more than Gates will outscore the mid level TE you get. Then you have to believe you're going to get relatively the same production from your defense for relatively the same price. All this doesn't even factor in the 3rd round pick you give.
good post. Excellent analysis.
This is exactly the sort of thing you consider when making a deal.
Personally, I'd stay away from another large salary if I could. Based on what you have said in other threads, I'd focus on the fact you have WAY more salary available than other teams and instead of trading my way to glory, I'd be looking to target which free agents I want to sign to fill the existing holes in your lineup. If those players arent available, then I would consider doing a trade.
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These are cummulative dynasty rankings, so in essence they are taking the future into account.....not just this year. They are saying if you are starting a dynasty leauge today, this is the order you should draft players in.....taking into account both the present and the future.My bad.
I guess I misunderstood.
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I think that Schaub is ready to be an elite QB. I like him this season, although having a decent backup is probably a good idea if you draft him. Not because Schaub doesnt produce against tough defenses, but because of his injury history.I think Schaub has that potential if he can quit getting injured.
right now I rank him slightly lower than McNabb in keeper leagues, but feel that their value is somewhat comparable overall. They both have injury problems, but McNabb threw for 3900 yards last year. (his best total ever) and I think his receivers this year will be better than last year.
Schaub's best season was slightly over 3000 yards (last year)
I acknowledge he missed 5 games and could have done 4000 yards too (if healthy). but my issue with him is that he has missed 10 games over his first 2 years as a starter. This makes him (to a degree) a high risk, high reward player.
I like him a lot. but If I were you, I'd stick with McNabb. At least he is 1 full season removed from his last injury.
Taking multiple WR's first...
in A Little Help!
Posted
MBIII is interesting, and I think his value is comparable to Fitz. I would be inclined to take him instead because you need a RB more than you need another WR.
With that being said, if the guy in the #2 or #3 Slot gives you a decent offer to move up in the draft, I'd consider taking that deal.