Shandler thinks Beltre was on the juice

[Bill Swerski 0]

ADRIAN BELTRE
Year  Weight   HR   AB/HR  
====  ======   ==   =====  
1998   170     MLB debut
--
2003   170     23    24.3
2004   220     48    12.5

 

Beltre put on 50 pounds in ONE OFFSEASON!@!@

 

Which also happened to be his contract year :ph34r:

[torridjoe 0]

Either that, or he changed his attitude and work ethic and was handsomely rewarded for reaching his true potential.

[Bill Swerski 0]

Interestingly, he shows the reported weights of some players year over year. Some guys just put it on slowly over several years, which is less incriminating then 50 pounds in one offseason.

 

SAMMY SOSA
Year  Weight   HR   AB/HR  
====  ======   ==   =====  
1989   175     MLB debut
--
1992   185      8    32.8
1993   185     33    18.1
1994   185     25    17.0
1995   185     36    15.7
1996   190     40    12.5
1997   200     36    17.8
1998   210     66     9.7
1999   220     63     9.9

 

Interesting that Javy packed on 25 pounds before his career contract year:

 

JAVY LOPEZ
Year  Weight   HR   AB/HR  
====  ======   ==   =====  
1992   185     MLB debut
--
2002   200     11    31.5
2003   225     43    10.6
2004   215     23    25.2

 

 

[Bill Swerski 0]

Either that, or he changed his attitude and work ethic and was handsomely rewarded for reaching his true potential.

It's a marshmallow fantasy world you live in, isn't it?

[Ditkanate 0]

anyone can put on 50 pounds in an offseason, as long as it's blubber. it's physically unpossible to add 50 lbs. of muscle that fast naturally. unless you're from oregon maybe?

[torridjoe 0]

Either that, or he changed his attitude and work ethic and was handsomely rewarded for  reaching his true potential.

It's a marshmallow fantasy world you live in, isn't it?

Are you saying Beltre was one of the 1% who tested positive for steroids last year? Otherwise it's mere speculation.

[torridjoe 0]

anyone can put on 50 pounds in an offseason, as long as it's blubber. it's physically unpossible to add 50 lbs. of muscle that fast naturally. unless you're from oregon maybe?

ever hear of creatine?

 

Besides, it's a lot easier to do when you're a rail-thin 170 to start with.

[Ditkanate 0]

ever hear of creatine?

uh, yeah, creatine. that'll do it all right. maybe 15 pounds. 50 pounds! good god man that's insane.

[Bill Swerski 0]

ever hear of creatine?

uh, yeah, creatine. that'll do it all right. maybe 15 pounds. 50 pounds! good god man that's insane.

Shhh, don't wake torrid from his fantasy.

 

You can absolutely put on 50 pounds in a few months with Creatine.

[torridjoe 0]

ever hear of creatine?

uh, yeah, creatine. that'll do it all right. maybe 15 pounds. 50 pounds! good god man that's insane.

Shhh, don't wake torrid from his fantasy.

 

You can absolutely put on 50 pounds in a few months with Creatine.

do you know the timeline? Does it say he was weighed at the end of one season and the beginning of another, or are you just assuming that? I would think the weigh-ins are done at the same time for the media guides...annually.

 

And maybe his debut weight was underreported.

[Bill Swerski 0]

ever hear of creatine?

uh, yeah, creatine. that'll do it all right. maybe 15 pounds. 50 pounds! good god man that's insane.

Shhh, don't wake torrid from his fantasy.

 

You can absolutely put on 50 pounds in a few months with Creatine.

do you know the timeline? Does it say he was weighed at the end of one season and the beginning of another, or are you just assuming that? I would think the weigh-ins are done at the same time for the media guides...annually.

 

And maybe his debut weight was underreported.

Yup, you're 100% right. It was completely natural and we're just being stupid for making the allegation. Sorry for bothering you.

[torridjoe 0]

ever hear of creatine?

uh, yeah, creatine. that'll do it all right. maybe 15 pounds. 50 pounds! good god man that's insane.

Shhh, don't wake torrid from his fantasy.

 

You can absolutely put on 50 pounds in a few months with Creatine.

do you know the timeline? Does it say he was weighed at the end of one season and the beginning of another, or are you just assuming that? I would think the weigh-ins are done at the same time for the media guides...annually.

 

And maybe his debut weight was underreported.

Yup, you're 100% right. It was completely natural and we're just being stupid for making the allegation. Sorry for bothering you.

I am right--you're stupid for making an allegation without the slightest bit of evidence.

And now that I've called you on your presentation of the facts, you're dismissive. Can you reprint where Shandler says Beltre gained 50 lbs in the offseason?

[Bill Swerski 0]

I am right--you're stupid for making an allegation without the slightest bit of evidence.

And now that I've called you on your presentation of the facts, you're dismissive. Can you reprint where Shandler says Beltre gained 50 lbs in the offseason?

No, I'm not being dismissive. I'm avoiding what will inevitably be a 4 page thread in which you will act like an obtuse ###### and pretend that is COMPLETELY natural for a player to put on that kind of weight, and OH, it just happens to coincide with his contract year. You're still denying that Barry Bonds MAY have even taken steroids, why would I engage in this conversation with you?

 

Jesus, it was a barb and taken from Shandler's website. You're so annoying sometimes...

[Bill Swerski 0]

Here's the article:

 

Ron Shandler's Fanalytics

February 25, 2005

De-juicing the projections

 

Is it any coincidence that the "Juiced Ball Era" of the last 10 years coincided directly with Major League Baseball's need to recover from The Great Strike of 1994-95?

 

It's time for a reality check. Players have been using these performance enhancers for years, and everyone has secretly known about it. The reason that nobody ever "blew the whistle" before is because, simply, steroids are profitable.

 

Bulked up players with their bulked up numbers have lined their own bank accounts. The big numbers have increased interest in the game, which has lined owners' bank accounts. There has been no motivation from within the game to clean up its act, because everybody's bank account has been benefiting from steroids.

 

And when it comes to money, MLB will never turn its back on a way to make another buck.

 

I am sick of MLB's arrogance, "who me?" attitude, and global denial club. "Best interest of the game" has become total lip service. Despite Jose Canseco's credibility issues, you would have to be completely naive to think that there was not a good deal of truth hidden in the pages of his book. I'm tired of everyone keeping their head in the sand, pleading ignorance and hoping this will all just blow over in a few weeks.

 

The problem for me, personally, is that I have a job to do here, that of attempting to project player performance with some reasonable level of accuracy. The steroid issue has the potential to have a huge impact on my efforts, and my credibility. So I cannot afford to keep my head in the sand and make believe that it doesn't matter. It matters a lot.

 

I know that steroids are shaping the numbers but I do not know where, or whom, or how much. As long as MLB plays its "holier than thou" games, and the media uses a coarse filter, all we have to work with is a lot of noise.

 

There are four questions we have to ask in order to start getting our arms around this issue. These are four questions that, at present, we don't know the answers to. And until we do, it will be difficult to integrate juice-enhancement into the forecasting process.

 

1. Which players have been taking performance enhancing drugs?

 

Well, we know for a fact on a select few, have an idea of some more, and can speculate on many others... but for the most part, for most players, we don't know for sure. That should not stop us from speculating, however, because as analysts, we should not be bullied into hiding in a cave (like torridjoe) just because there is not enough information. However, at the end of the day, we still will never be able to say with absolute certainty that Players X, Y or Z are, or were, users.

 

2. How much has the players' use of steroids inflated their statistics?

 

Here again, we can only speculate. While a player's HR output might jump from 15 to 35 in one year, we do not know how much of that surge might be due to normal developmental growth, a change in venues or random fluctuation. Until we can separate and measure all variables, we will never know the real impact of steroid use.

 

3. Which current users are going to stop taking steroids?

 

This might seem like an easy question to answer, given MLB's tougher policy. However, those players who have profited the most by using steroids will be on the forefront of finding the next great designer cream that cannot be detected by drug testing. A player who gets caught in his first offense may publicly say that he's now "clean," but we'll never know for sure... until the second offense, should he get caught.

 

4. When a player stops taking steroids, what impact will that have on his statistics?

 

At the bottom of the list of questions is the one that will be toughest to gauge. If we know who is using, and if we know how much he's been helped by steroids, and if we know he's stopped... can we assume his numbers will just revert to his pre-juiced levels? Probably not, as there may be other physiological factors that could come into play that might affect his performance.

 

The following analysis is simple. We went back and isolated as many players as we could who...

 

1. Saw their HR total and AB/HR increase significantly between two seasons.

 

2. Experienced a weight gain at or around the same time as the power increase.

 

The players listed are the ones where a power spike and a weight gain were concurrent, more or less. There were many others that exhibited either one or the other, or had no correlation within a reasonable time frame. In addition, this list is not exhaustive; it includes all incidences from the last four years but just selected players from prior to 2000.

 

ADRIAN BELTRE
Year  Weight   HR   AB/HR  
====  ======   ==   =====  
1998   170     MLB debut
--
2003   170     23    24.3
2004   220     48    12.5

 

The difference this spring, however, is that we are going to be watching much more closely and perhaps be more willing to draw conclusions based on the evidence. MLB may still try to hold their veil of secrecy over our heads, but we're smarter than that now except for torridjoe who will continue to live in his bubble of ignorance.

[Tusekan Raiders 0]

I'm avoiding what will inevitably be a 4 page thread...

You'll avoid nothing and like it, if you don't let him have the last word.

 

I think Adrian Beltre is Spanish for Brady Anderson.

[Ditkanate 0]

now i'm having adrian beltretard thoughts!@# and, it's kind of great actually!@# mariner green = BAD COLOR!@# BAD COLOR!!#@$@#$ :ph34r:

[Bill Swerski 0]

I'm avoiding what will inevitably be a 4 page thread...

You'll avoid nothing and like it, if you don't let him have the last word.

 

I think Adrian Beltre is Spanish for Brady Anderson.

He can have the last word, it will undoubtedly be as dumb as his contention that Barry Bonds NEVER took steroids.

[Blitzen 0]

I'm avoiding what will inevitably be a 4 page thread...

You'll avoid nothing and like it, if you don't let him have the last word.

 

I think Adrian Beltre is Spanish for Brady Anderson.

Ya think Brady was on da juice? Naaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah. :ph34r:

[torridjoe 0]

I am right--you're stupid for making an allegation without the slightest bit of evidence.

And now that I've called you on your presentation of the facts, you're dismissive. Can you reprint where Shandler says Beltre gained 50 lbs in the offseason?

No, I'm not being dismissive. I'm avoiding what will inevitably be a 4 page thread in which you will act like an obtuse ###### and pretend that is COMPLETELY natural for a player to put on that kind of weight, and OH, it just happens to coincide with his contract year. You're still denying that Barry Bonds MAY have even taken steroids, why would I engage in this conversation with you?

 

Jesus, it was a barb and taken from Shandler's website. You're so annoying sometimes...

You're being dismissive to avoid it, because you were busted. Shandler doesn't say anything about the offseason, does he? Nope. So you start calling me names because I correctly called bullshit on your idle speculation.

 

Shandler sounds like Joe McCarthy here: "We shouldn't let the fact that we have no focking idea who might be taking steroids, prevent us from making unfounded speculations anyway." It's dangerous guesswork that leads to allegations that cannot be disproven, since nobody can conclusively show they didn't take them.

 

And you and I both know I've NEVER denied Bonds took steroids. I'm doing exactly the same thing here--not falling prey to hack analyses of head size and HR rates in order to reach conclusions that are nothing but a guess. I've said it's unfair, particularly to someone who is so naturally talented to begin with, to reach conclusions that are not supported by facts.

 

Yes, it was a barb, and you're pulling the same ###### talk radio heads do--throw out something without any backing for it, and then when you get called on it, say "hey HEY! Lighten up! Just a joke, bob! I didn't really MEAN liberals should be physically intimidated!"

[Bill Swerski 0]

I really want to reply but I said you could have the last word.

[torridjoe 0]

I really want to reply but I said you could have the last word.

you know I don't care about any of that. Tell you what--YOU take the last word. I promise not to reply.

[Bill Swerski 0]

I was "busted" on nothing.

 

Beltre weighed the same throughout the entirety of his miserable and underachieving career. The year prior to his contract year, he puts on 50 pounds of muscle mass. BING!#! All of a sudden, his HR rate doubles, his slugging and OPS go through the roof and BAM! big contract for Adrian.

 

While you would like to write this off as coincidence, or some other such honest endeavor like using legal supplements like Creatine, the rest of the world can be honest with themselves and suspect that Beltre may have used some illegal methods in order to get a bigger contract. The fact that you won't even CONSIDER it is the exact reason that I posted it. So you would go off on a 12 post screed about scurrilous allegations, hackery, and other such nonsense. It is totally typical of you.

 

Unless we have a video, still frame photos, a steroid filled needle with Beltre's DNA on it, an admission in court, and a corroborating witness, you would never admit that he MAY have even juiced.

 

As for whether or not Beltre put the weight on in the offseason: What players bulk up DURING the season? IT IS A TIP THAT PLAYING@!# Working out and putting on 50 pounds of muscle mass doesn't even happen in the course of ONE YEAR without the aid of illegal assistance.

 

You spent the better part of three years arguing with all comers on the Geek Board and in IM conversations with me that Bonds was not juicing, now you would like to say that is not the case? Alrighty then...

 

It is speculation that he is on steroids. In the current climate with the evidence, admissions, and allegations all over the place, it is certainly reasonable to suspect he may have juiced. I am not throwing out something that has no backing, I am pointing out that all signs point to a player who cheated to get what he needed. If you would like to ignore it, and the fact that it came from the mouth of your fanalytic mentor in order to pretend he's an upsatnding guy, so be it.

 

Have a great night.

[torridjoe 0]

I was "busted" on nothing.

 

Beltre weighed the same throughout the entirety of his miserable and underachieving career. The year prior to his contract year, he puts on 50 pounds of muscle mass. BING!#! All of a sudden, his HR rate doubles, his slugging and OPS go through the roof and BAM! big contract for Adrian.

 

While you would like to write this off as coincidence, or some other such honest endeavor like using legal supplements like Creatine, the rest of the world can be honest with themselves and suspect that Beltre may have used some illegal methods in order to get a bigger contract. The fact that you won't even CONSIDER it is the exact reason that I posted it. So you would go off on a 12 post screed about scurrilous allegations, hackery, and other such nonsense. It is totally typical of you.

 

Unless we have a video, still frame photos, a steroid filled needle with Beltre's DNA on it, an admission in court, and a corroborating witness, you would never admit that he MAY have even juiced.

 

As for whether or not Beltre put the weight on in the offseason: What players bulk up DURING the season? IT IS A TIP THAT PLAYING@!# Working out and putting on 50 pounds of muscle mass doesn't even happen in the course of ONE YEAR without the aid of illegal assistance.

 

You spent the better part of three years arguing with all comers on the Geek Board and in IM conversations with me that Bonds was not juicing, now you would like to say that is not the case? Alrighty then...

 

It is speculation that he is on steroids. In the current climate with the evidence, admissions, and allegations all over the place, it is certainly reasonable to suspect he may have juiced. I am not throwing out something that has no backing, I am pointing out that all signs point to a player who cheated to get what he needed. If you would like to ignore it, and the fact that it came from the mouth of your fanalytic mentor in order to pretend he's an upsatnding guy, so be it.

 

Have a great night.

All right, let's break down your analysis into 20 parts, from each of which I'll draw a two page or so reply. On the......

 

 

 

 

 

 

AWWWWWW, CRAP.

[Bill Swerski 0]

Current Season Stats - Games through Tuesday May. 3, 2005



Batting
G  AB  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  R  BB  K  SB  CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS
27  109  25  4  0  2  16  15  3  19  0  0  .229  .254  .321  .575

[torridjoe 0]

Current Season Stats - Games through Tuesday May. 3, 2005



Batting
G  AB  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  R  BB  K  SB  CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS
27  109  25  4  0  2  16  15  3  19  0  0  .229  .254  .321  .575

I don't get it. What does this prove?