Few solid 1st and 2nd round picks this year.

[GobbleDog 1,020]

It seems like in the past few years, there have been a bunch of solid 1st and 2nd round picks. Tons of RB depth and can't miss WRs.

 

But this year, I don't feel too safe about a lot of the players projected in the first two rounds. More RBBC situations and unkowns with players in new situations... (edge to Arizona). The old can't-miss WRs are even a little sketchy nowdays ... Owens (who played only 7 games last year) is older and in a new system, Moss and Holt aren't what they used to be. Even Harrison's stats are starting to dip. Unlike past years, I can't think of any other QB than Manning who I'd be willing to take with a top 2 pick.

 

Outside of LT, S Alexander and L Johnson, the rest of the 1st round looks like a crap shoot. I'm not complaining. I'm just saying this year might be a little more difficult. Thoughts?

[SmartassBoiler 0]

Holt isn't what he used to be? He was injured last year for a bit and Bulger was hurt...those are the only reasons his stats declined. I'm sure he'll be studly again this year even with the new system.

 

In the first round I still see Edge as a bonafide stud RB, even if his surrounding offensive situation isn't as good. Portis got better in his 2nd year with Gibbs' offense. The Skins added a couple solid WRs Cooley emerged, so I see a very nice season for him again this year. Tiki Barber has been a stud for 2 years running, and given the fact he has less wear and tear than most RBs his age I don't see why he can't be a RB1 again this season. LaMont Jordan put up RB1 stats for most of the season and I see him as a safe late 1st round selection. Rudi Johnson isn't spectacular, but the dude is as consistent as they come yardage wise and you know Cincy's offense will score.

 

There's 2 promising youngsters in Caddy and Ronnie Brown, a new coaching staff that will get Steven Jackson the ball more, and I think Julius Jones will respond with a nice season as well. Whoever steps in as Indy's starter will immediately have interesting fantasy value as well. Sure it gets a little hazy after that, but aren't the 2nd round RBs a little iffy every year anyways?

 

I do agree that there are a few more RBBC's than usual, but I think the RB1s are pretty solid. That just makes the 2nd round more interesting and the stud RB-RB situation more difficult to come by, which is why you have to start looking at stud WRs and stud QBs in the 2nd round a little closer.

[famousb 11]

i'm not certain how you can say there are less "solid" picks this year than in previous years - unless you've just gotten wiser in your FF years and just aren't falling for all of the hype anymore (see KJ and JJ at RB last year)... There are still about the same number of solid guys as before, it's just you either haven't started hearing hype about other guys to make you think they are solid, or you just don't believe the hype anymore.

As for Manning being the only QB worth a #2 overall pick, personally, i'm one of the subscribers to the stud RB theory, and i wouldn't ever waste a top 10 pick on a QB because of what would be available to me in the 2nd as far as QBs go...

 

But there are still a bunch of guys that are worth first & second round picks that i would consider solid at their position. In no particular order (guys in () are other quality guys, just may not go Rd 1 or 2):

 

QB

Manning

Palmer (if he's healthy in preseason)

(plus McNabb, CPep, Brady, etc...)

 

RB

LT

SA

LJ - even though everyone is hyping him as the #1 overrall, i still haven't seen him play a full season as a starter, and he's got a new coach.

Tiki - how can you say he isn't solid? even if he doesn't put up last years numbers, he's still a quality #1 RB

Portis - every year in the WAS system he gets a little bit better, with the new WRs hopefully he'll have a little more open room.

Edge - even w/ a new team, if i got him anywhere in the first round i'd be exstatic. The guy is a workhorse and still has moves and speed to break one. Doesn't anyone remember Robert Smith in Denny Green's MIN offense when Moss/Carter/Reed were the WRs - if he didn't retire early, he would have easily been a top 5 pick.

Rudi - has to be a solid #1 guy w/ the way that O is turning into a powerhouse.

(SJax, Caddy, RBrown, Westbrook, etc...)

 

 

WR

CJ - give him to me in the late 2nd any day...

TO - you know he'll have a monster year, and can't ask for better in a redraft.

Ward - has put up consistently better numbers every year, and there's no reason to think that will change.

Steve Smith - should EASILY put up 1200+ and 8+ this year.

i should put Moss here, but until OAK has a QB that isn't named Aaron Brooks I'm leaving him off...

(plus Moss, Holt, Harrison, Wayne, Horn, Boldin, LFitz, etc... and you've got a good squad of solid WRs)

 

 

yes there are a few RBBCs, but in reality there is still ALOT of good talent out there. It's just now there are more stud WRs than before, and a few less clearcut #1 RBs. Even more reason not to go QB or WR in the first round. If you don't get a solid #1 RB, you may be counting on WRs more than ever before...

[SmartassBoiler 0]

i should put Moss here, but until OAK has a QB that isn't named Aaron Brooks I'm leaving him off...

 

Disagreed. Two words: Joe Horn.

[famousb 11]

Disagreed. Two words: Joe Horn.

 

Joe Horn did have a nice career with Brooks throwing to him, but unless Brooks can rebound to non-backwards-throwing form, he's on his downward turn as far as a QB goes... Plus i still have injury concerns w/ Moss as far as those nagging little injuries go where he always finds a way to underperform. I'm certain he will be in the top 5 WRs to get drafted, but i think he's lost some of his lofty WR status. And OAK signing Brooks to be the starter won't bump it back up. I no longer consider him one of the Big 3 WRs that were 'must haves'.

[GobbleDog 1,020]

I hope to God I get a top 3 pick, because after that....

 

1. LT

2. SA

3. LJ

..........

4. Barber - hard to believe he's shot up to the #4 overall pick. A 31 yo RB.

5. Edge - Yards and yards and yards.. and no TDs.

6. Portis - See Edge.

7. Rudi Johnson - "Not bad, but not great" - pretty much sums up his career.

8. Stephen Jackson - Has the greatest potential of the bunch, IMO. Just hasn't shown it yet.

9. Cadillac - Durable? Big stats sharing with stable of RBs?

10. Ronnie Brown - Durable? 1st time in lone RB role.

[famousb 11]

I hope to God I get a top 3 pick, because after that....

 

1. LT

2. SA

3. LJ

..........

4. Barber - hard to believe he's shot up to the #4 overall pick. A 31 yo RB.

5. Edge - Yards and yards and yards.. and no TDs.

6. Portis - See Edge.

7. Rudi Johnson - "Not bad, but not great" - pretty much sums up his career.

8. Stephen Jackson - Has the greatest potential of the bunch, IMO. Just hasn't shown it yet.

9. Cadillac - Durable? Big stats sharing with stable of RBs?

10. Ronnie Brown - Durable? 1st time in lone RB role.

 

 

yeah, i agree, whoever doesn't get a top 3 pick this year should just throw the towel in on the season this year...

[SmartassBoiler 0]

yeah, i agree, whoever doesn't get a top 3 pick this year should just throw the towel in on the season this year...

 

He's just saying what everyone knows...it does get a bit questionable after the top 3.

[GobbleDog 1,020]

I'm just a little nervous about the remaining RBs.

[famousb 11]

i'd trade OUT of 1, 2, or 3 in a heartbeat if i could also switch 2nds and pick up say a 6th or 7th...

 

Give me Edge/Tiki/Portis in around 1.5 - 1.8, then a mid-tier guy like SJax/Rudi/Caddy in the 2nd, and then pick up a top 5 WR in the 3rd... i'm not a big fan of having a team that's completely reliant on 1 player...

[SmartassBoiler 0]

i'd trade OUT of 1, 2, or 3 in a heartbeat if i could also switch 2nds and pick up say a 6th or 7th...

 

Give me Edge/Tiki/Portis in around 1.5 - 1.8, then a mid-tier guy like SJax/Rudi/Caddy in the 2nd, and then pick up a top 5 WR in the 3rd... i'm not a big fan of having a team that's completely reliant on 1 player...

 

I guess that's a 10 team league then. First of all, Rudi, SJax, and probably Caddy won't be there in the middle of the 2nd round. In my 12 team league last year, the top 5 WRs were all gone by the end of the 2nd round (as they should have been by their ADPs), so you're not getting a top 5 WR in the 3rd either.

[famousb 11]

I guess that's a 10 team league then. First of all, Rudi, SJax, and probably Caddy won't be there in the middle of the 2nd round. In my 12 team league last year, the top 5 WRs were all gone by the end of the 2nd round (as they should have been by their ADPs), so you're not getting a top 5 WR in the 3rd either.

 

 

So you're saying that 5 WRs, probably 2-3 QBs, and 15-16 RBs is what went in your first 2 rounds last year then??

At least 1 if not 2 WRs are going end of 1st, beginning of 2nd. Plus Manning, and maybe Palmer or another QB too. So that means by 2.4 a total of 12 RBs will be gone. There's not too many top 10 lists that have all of those guys involved, cause there's still LJordan, Westbrook, McGahee, & FWP who could be legit top 10s come draft time. I'll take any of those guys in the 2nd. At least 1 will fall to 2.4. And at 3.1 - 3.3 you will still see at least a Torry Holt, LFitz, MHarrison, or SMoss. There are too many guys locked into the theory of RB-RB to not have at least 1 top WR still available at the beginning of the third.

[Phurfur 70]

Yes, but your talking top 5 rated. I don't think Steve Smith went in the 2nd round in many drafts. He was more of a mid to late 3rd in mine. The trick is finding this year's Steve Smith.

[SmartassBoiler 0]

Yes, but your talking top 5 rated. I don't think Steve Smith went in the 2nd round in many drafts. He was more of a mid to late 3rd in mine. The trick is finding this year's Steve Smith.

 

Well, with the trend of Muhammad 2 years ago and Steve Smith last year, if Smith goes down it'll obviously be Colbert this year.

[famousb 11]

Yes, but your talking top 5 rated. I don't think Steve Smith went in the 2nd round in many drafts. He was more of a mid to late 3rd in mine. The trick is finding this year's Steve Smith.

 

 

Question is, who are the top 5 WRs going into this year?

 

Steve Smith, SMoss, Hines Ward, CJ, & LFitz finished 1-5 last year, and i'd think at least 3 of those 5 (CJ, Ward, Fitz) will all be top 5 this year. Then there's Moss, TO, and Holt too... don't forget to throw in Harrison,Wayne, ABoldin, and Javon Walker....

Top 5 was more for terminology. When you get down to actual ranking the top WRs, the top tier seems to be closer to a top 8 or so...

[davebg 0]

IMNSHO I think there's a good chance that SA drops to that 2nd tier w/the loss of Hutchinson on the O line (it's still a little early to make that call though.)

[famousb 11]

IMNSHO I think there's a good chance that SA drops to that 2nd tier w/the loss of Hutchinson on the O line (it's still a little early to make that call though.)

 

in an earlier thread, i made reference to the fact that there was only a VERY few RBs that posted back-back 1800+ yd seasons. Most of the time it dropped down to around 1300 or so. Take that into account, and figure he's probably not going to have another 30 TD year (although he could), and your theory is probably about right....

[GobbleDog 1,020]

I doubt any WRs will be drafted in the first round of my 12 team league. Which would be a first.

[Raider 84 29]

Holt will be the best fantasy wr this year. He missed parts of three games due to injury and still had 102 receptions 1300+ yards and 9 tds. He will tear the league up this year.