Economist: Maximizing draft value in cap era

[Mr Anonymous 24]

Interesting take at an area that goes by unnoticed but really does play a significant factor. Maximizing production for your draft dollars. It is true that a player like Mario Williams is immediately being payed like a Pro Bowler. So he must live up to every expectation otherwise he's in actuality hurting the team with regard to cap structure. And even if he does fullfill expectations he is no bargain. You're simply getting what you paid for. Most likely he'll come nowhere near what he's being paid in terms of production as a rookie.

 

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=1...id=atr6n6yzj1yI

 

Very interesting point about stockpiling as many 2nd and 3rd rounders as possible, paying them a microscopic number compared to high first rounders and combining their production to meet and often exceed that of a 1st rounder alone.

 

I loved Ted Thompson's draft before I read this, now it looks like pure genius from an economic standpoint as well.

[t.j 35]

So how does this guy determine what a player's actual value is? Just based on playing time?

[toofunny 0]

Interesting take at an area that goes by unnoticed but really does play a significant factor. Maximizing production for your draft dollars. It is true that a player like Mario Williams is immediately being payed like a Pro Bowler. So he must live up to every expectation otherwise he's in actuality hurting the team with regard to cap structure. And even if he does fullfill expectations he is no bargain. You're simply getting what you paid for. Most likely he'll come nowhere near what he's paying paid in terms of production as a rookie.

 

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=1...id=atr6n6yzj1yI

 

Very interesting point about stockpiling as many 2nd and 3rd rounders as possible, paying them a microscopic number compared to high first rounders and combining their production to meet and possibly exceed that of a 1st rounder alone.

 

I loved Ted Thompson's draft before I read this, now it looks like pure genius from an economic standpoint as well.

 

They also had 25234234234 holes because Thompson is a horrible GM.

[Mr Anonymous 24]

So how does this guy determine what a player's actual value is? Just based on playing time?

 

"Massey and Thaler combed through years of data, and estimated the surplus value available historically to teams picking at different positions in the draft. They did this by using statistics to compare performance to salaries."

 

They also had 25234234234 holes because Thompson is a horrible GM.

 

Wrong. They had a boatload of holes because of the previous GM's putrid drafting and mismanagement of the salary cap.

[nobody 2,665]

They also had 25234234234 holes because Thompson is a horrible GM.

 

 

HA! You just lost all your credibility. There aren't even that many roster spots on the team.

 

I don't know if I buy this purely economic assessment of the draft. It totally ignores the relative value of the players and only looks at draft position. The consequence is that the team with the most second and third round picks will automatically have the best drafts ever year.

[Mr Anonymous 24]

I don't know if I buy this purely economic assessment of the draft. It totally ignores the relative value of the players and only looks at draft position. The consequence is that the team with the most second and third round picks will automatically have the best drafts ever year.

 

Remember they factor in production. Second rounders provide the same production of many 1st rounders. The key is accumulating many 2nd and 3rd rounders. You combine four 2nd and 3rd rounders and even with all four of their salaries combined they will be paid less and produce more than just 1 first rounder. One on one with the 1st rounder they obviously lose but combined they give you more at a fraction of the cost.

 

Also, Green Bay did have a high first rounder they will pay exorbitant money to and yet they still came in first.

[Let Da Big Dog Eat 40]

This is the same philosophy as NE has used for years only with rookies rather than vets. However, better quantified based on stats. As an Econ major, I must say that this is the first time in my life I have ever seen my degree be of much real value outside of personnal finance decisions.