Duece outlook ?

[The Moz 69]

Duece is the kind of player that can have a decent year after an injury as he plays hurt often and alot of times actually plays decent injured. But Reggie is the end all be all in everyones minds.

 

Will New Orleans work it the way SC had it and Duece will play L. Whites role ? or will Duece be pretty much an after thought as they are going to pay reggie a fortune and he's the franchises poster boy.

 

IMO right now Duece is not even in my top 35 RB's as I indeed view him as an after thought or ebing relegated to a GL / short yardage role only ? Am I wrong will The Duece get more carries ?

[football_scooter 0]

Me |--------------------------------10' pole--------------------------------| McAllister

 

HTH

[mdubz 0]

if duece falls to the 5th like i've seen, i will gladly pick him up and have the best flex back in the league...

[Trainer1 0]

I believe Duece is a good #3 RB. Bush will be used in so many aspects of the game that when defenses adjust to Bush in motion holes will open for Duece. IMO Deuce is better than just a short yardage back.

[HawgWild 0]

I am not going to make any decisions on Deuce until deep into the preseason.. First to see if he is fully recovered from the injury and secondly to see how the addition of Bush will affect his stats.. I had him last year (my second pick overall) and we all know how that worked out...

[famousb 11]

my take:

It usually takes 2 years for an RB to come back to 100% after a knee injury. This is Deuce's first year back, so I highly doubt he'll be back to form.

 

Now, add in the fact that the reason they'll be sold-out most of the year is cause of Reggie Bush. When spending that much money on someone, you have to play him - ALOT. Which puts pressure on Deuce to come back faster & better, cause he isn't given the luxury of a 2-year recovery period. If Deuce doesn't perform well right away he could become a goalline, short-yardage back, aka the Bus...

This worries me that Deuce may push too hard and actually reinjure himself.

 

Even pre-injury the Saints seemed to be trying to find a quicker, faster RB to be on 3rd & longs or other passing situations. now they definitely have that guy in Bush, plus he'll probably see alot more.

 

Supposedly they're going to try to use them both in the backfield, and also split Bush out as a WR.

Personally, i'd rather just stay away from the situation & take DeAngelo Williams as my rookie RB "gamble"

[Trainer1 0]

my take:

It usually takes 2 years for an RB to come back to 100% after a knee injury. This is Deuce's first year back, so I highly doubt he'll be back to form.

 

Now, add in the fact that the reason they'll be sold-out most of the year is cause of Reggie Bush. When spending that much money on someone, you have to play him - ALOT. Which puts pressure on Deuce to come back faster & better, cause he isn't given the luxury of a 2-year recovery period. If Deuce doesn't perform well right away he could become a goalline, short-yardage back, aka the Bus...

This worries me that Deuce may push too hard and actually reinjure himself.

 

Even pre-injury the Saints seemed to be trying to find a quicker, faster RB to be on 3rd & longs or other passing situations. now they definitely have that guy in Bush, plus he'll probably see alot more.

 

Supposedly they're going to try to use them both in the backfield, and also split Bush out as a WR.

Personally, i'd rather just stay away from the situation & take DeAngelo Williams as my rookie RB "gamble"

 

How many players you know that has retorn their ACL coming back before two years. I don't buy the 2 years ACL thing. I believe it's the mentality of a player coming back from injury that determines what type of year and player has coming back from surgery. If anything Bush coming to NO will help Deuce's motivation. They just gave Duece a huge extension on his contract, so NO must like him.

 

I would rather take the chance on Duece than an unproven rookie who is going to be in a RBBC situation. Williams has to deal with Foster and Shelton. Now, if it were a dynasty, that would be different.

[Meglamaniac 380]

I see just the oposite, if as we get close to preseason DM is proven healthy he is the back in NO and Bush will be used as a change of pace, two back option and he will be lined up in the slot.

 

Lets not forget

 

1. DM past production

2. Blocking is more important a role fo a RB than realized.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

my take:

It usually takes 2 years for an RB to come back to 100% after a knee injury. This is Deuce's first year back, so I highly doubt he'll be back to form.

 

Now, add in the fact that the reason they'll be sold-out most of the year is cause of Reggie Bush. When spending that much money on someone, you have to play him - ALOT. Which puts pressure on Deuce to come back faster & better, cause he isn't given the luxury of a 2-year recovery period. If Deuce doesn't perform well right away he could become a goalline, short-yardage back, aka the Bus...

This worries me that Deuce may push too hard and actually reinjure himself.

 

Even pre-injury the Saints seemed to be trying to find a quicker, faster RB to be on 3rd & longs or other passing situations. now they definitely have that guy in Bush, plus he'll probably see alot more.

 

Supposedly they're going to try to use them both in the backfield, and also split Bush out as a WR.

Personally, i'd rather just stay away from the situation & take DeAngelo Williams as my rookie RB "gamble"

 

 

You can almost set your watch to the "2 year rule" for RB's. I made the mistake with Edgerrin taking him the year after his ACL, it was a huge mistake.

 

Personally, I wouldn't take Deuce as my 3rd RB. Maybe my 4th but by then someone else will have taken him. The 2 year rule has proven itself too many times for me to go after him until late.

[football_scooter 0]

How many players you know that has retorn their ACL coming back before two years. I don't buy the 2 years ACL thing. I believe it's the mentality of a player coming back from injury that determines what type of year and player has coming back from surgery. If anything Bush coming to NO will help Deuce's motivation. They just gave Duece a huge extension on his contract, so NO must like him.

 

I would rather take the chance on Duece than an unproven rookie who is going to be in a RBBC situation. Williams has to deal with Foster and Shelton. Now, if it were a dynasty, that would be different.

 

 

All due respect and thanks to FootballDocs for the following article - it's an oldie but goodie and should well be taken as gospel by anyone considering drafting a RB coming off of ACL/MCL surgery. It's excellent and well supported information, and has consistently been proven to be accurate.

 

It helped me to my lone championship when I selected Jamal Lewis at 2.11 to pair with LT2 in my 2002 draft.

 

http://www.footballdocs.com/RB_injury_rule.html

The Running Back Two Year Major Injury Rule

 

August 17, 2004

 

Okay fantasy football fanatics---huddle up. It’s time to re-release a FootballDocs timeless classic. In this article, the Docs go behind the numbers to outline the running back two-year major injury rule...a rule that should be strongly considered when evaluating your player rankings. It is also a rule that could help give your team that winning fantasy football edge on draft day and prove to be the difference between winning and losing. Remember, the Docs are the geeks whose life-long pursuit is to develop the most accurate fantasy football projections available. The RB Two Year Major Injury Rule is but one of the scores of variables that are part of the Docs’ “secret sauce”, otherwise known as our predictive mathematical model used to power the Draft Advisor and FootballDocs Player Rankings.

 

When it comes to most fantasy football drafts, there is hardly a position in fantasy football that is more coveted than the position of running back. With only 32 NFL teams and typically two running backs required for the start in most fantasy football leagues, it doesn’t take long to see that quality RB’s are hot commodities on fantasy draft day. Throw in the fact that several NFL teams support running back by committee (RBBC) offenses (offenses that fail to feature a workhorse running back and consequently distribute the carries to several different running backs), and quality running backs can go faster than free BBQ at a NFL pre-game tailgate.

 

What constitutes a workhorse running back?

By “workhorse”, we mean a back that is likely to get at least somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 touches in a game (either directly from a hand off or from a pass reception out of the backfield). Typically these are your household name backs---Marshall Faulk, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Edgerrin James to just name a few; however, they could also be “up and comers” that people feel are going to get those kind of touches but have yet to do so in the past. Regardless, the idea here is to select a back that is slated to be the featured back in a NFL offense, but be sure to exercise extreme caution when selecting such a back. It is imperative to consider the leg injury history of a running back with respect to time, otherwise you may effectively pay the price for a Lexus only to receive a Corolla.

 

Major injury history with respect to time?

You bet. It is not enough for a running back to be declared the feature back in an NFL offense. The back should also be two years removed from the season when the major leg injury occurred before paying the high price of an early round pick in your fantasy football draft. To help illustrate this point, let’s examine the numbers for running backs the year before the season they suffered a major leg injury and then the numbers the year after returning from a major injury:

 

Year Proceeding Major Injury 
Player
Year
Injury
Rush Yards
Rec. Yards
Total TDs

Edgerrin James
2000
ACL
1709
594
18

Jamal Lewis
2000
ACL
1364
296
6

Jamal Anderson
1998
ACL
1846
319
16

Terrell Davis
1998
ACL
2008
217
24

Garrison Hearst
1998
Leg
1570
535
9

Robert Edwards
1998
Knee
1115
331
12




Year Returning from Major Injury 
Player
Year
Injury
Rush Yards
Rec. Yards
Total TDs

Edgerrin James
2002
ACL
989
354
3

Jamal Lewis
2002
ACL
1327
442
7

Jamal Anderson
2000
ACL
1024
382
6

Terrell Davis
2000
ACL
78
4
2

Garrison Hearst
2001
Leg
1206
347
5

Robert Edwards*
2002
Knee
107
126
2


*not a starter on return from injury

 

Major leg injuries and running backs do not mix, and it takes time (typically two full years from the season when the major leg injury occurred) to recover to the pre-injury form that these backs enjoyed when punishing NFL defenses on a regular basis. Jamal Lewis was the only back to produce numbers extremely similar (in fact, slightly better) to his pre-injury form on his first year back from a major leg injury. There are two possible explanations that could help account for this. The first lies in the fact that Lewis tore his ACL during the preseason in the summer of 2000, hence Lewis had longer to rehab the injury and prepare for the 2002 season when compared to previous backs that tore their ACL during the regular season. The second possible explanation lies in the fact that Lewis had previously torn his ACL during his sophomore year of college while playing at Tennessee; consequently, he already experienced the recovery process and knew both physically and mentally what it would take to rehabilitate his knee and return to a high level of play. Hearst also had one of the better years on his return (70% of his previous fantasy performance based on a standard performance scoring system), but similar to Lewis, Hearst also had more time to rehabilitate his injury compared to other players (in fact, he had an additional year to recover). Regardless, the overall trend illustrates that some of the best backs in the game struggled on their first year immediately returning from a major leg injury.

 

Why does this RB two-year injury rule seem to exist?

In a word---hesitation. When returning to the gridiron after recovering from a significant leg injury, it is almost impossible for a running back to not hesitate when running with the ball. Minor leg injuries such as sprains and pulled muscles can and should be expected for running backs in the NFL, but major leg injuries such as a torn ACL can be devastating to a RB and delay their progress to returning to their pre-injury form. The key to this immediate one-year slump lies in the function of the ACL itself. The ACL holds the femur and tibia in place and is one of the most critical ligaments to athletes because of its primary function of stabilizing the knee joint during deceleration. Without the ACL, players would fall to the ground due to the knee buckling when applying pressure from either stopping or changing direction. It is only natural for a RB to be hesitant when running during the first year after an ACL injury. Given the speed of the NFL, there is no room for there to be any kind of hesitation and still expect a running back to put up big numbers.

 

By the way, for those that have endured a significant leg injury and played some ball, we’re preaching to the choir. For those that haven’t, go talk to someone who has. Physical therapy is brutal and requires not only considerable time to “fully” recover, but also requires tremendous determination and sheer guts. The mental anguish on a player can at times prove to be as strenuous as the physical anguish. It is not uncommon for a player to ponder thoughts of retirement when going through this process, and it is a credit to those that made it all the way back to be able to play at the level the NFL demands.

 

When it comes to your fantasy football draft this year, keep the RB two-year major injury rule in mind. These players have a place in your fantasy draft, but not in the early rounds. Let someone else fall prey to the memories of yesterday when selecting a running back that is in his first year returning from a major leg injury.

[famousb 11]

How many players you know that has retorn their ACL coming back before two years. I don't buy the 2 years ACL thing. I believe it's the mentality of a player coming back from injury that determines what type of year and player has coming back from surgery. If anything Bush coming to NO will help Deuce's motivation. They just gave Duece a huge extension on his contract, so NO must like him.

 

I would rather take the chance on Duece than an unproven rookie who is going to be in a RBBC situation. Williams has to deal with Foster and Shelton. Now, if it were a dynasty, that would be different.

 

first thought in my head (although completely irrelevant) - Correll Buckhalter

second thought - KiJana Carter

 

NO also signed MBennett a few weeks before the draft. Both of these RB moves were because they had no belief that Bush would not go #1 overrall.

I agree its a mental thing that prevents backs from coming back at 100% the first year, but that same mental drive to keep his job could just push him too far too fast...

 

Personally, i just like DWilliams alot better. Foster is not the answer in CAR, and the team knows it. Shelton is not a primary back either. If he proves that he can run the ball as well in the NFL as he did in college, DWilliams could very well be the #1 back going into the season - especially since Foster probably won't last through preseason w/o getting hurt...

[Trainer1 0]

The original post says he won't be top 35. I said he could be my flex 3 RB. Compared to him being in the 1st round last year that is a drop off. He should be picked around T. Jones, FWP, C. Dillion this year. I believe Duece does have the skills to be a #1 RB, but because he is coming off the ACL, I have dropped him.

 

Buckhalter reinjured and had surgery on his patella tendon. That was more of an Ahman Green injury.

[plastikman33 0]

If I remember correctly didn't Duce sign a monster 6-yr contract last year? Clearly Bush is the future in NO, any thoughts on what happens with Duce? Do they trade him after this year?

[famousb 11]

If I remember correctly didn't Duce sign a monster 6-yr contract last year? Clearly Bush is the future in NO, any thoughts on what happens with Duce? Do they trade him after this year?

 

they trade him to MIA in order to get the rights to Ricky Williams back