Donovan McNabb - Steppin Up or Steppin Down?

[Kilroy 0]

Donovan McNabb is about to enter his 8th season in the NFL. The last two, more or less, he has had the luxury of throwing to the best receiver in the game - Terrell Owens. That won't be the case this year.

 

In 2004, when Owens first arrived in Philadelphia, he made an immediate impact on both the team and McNabb's numbers. For the first time in his career McNabb threw more than 25 TD passes, completed more than 60% of his passes and threw for well over 3400 yards.

 

In '05, while McNabb missed the last 7 games of the season and Owens was suspended for the final 9, they still played together for 7 games. McNabb's season statistics proved to be respectable (he did have an 85.0 QB rating afterall and threw 16 TDs in just 9 games), but he also had a few stinkers in there and didn't seem like the same QB of just a season ago. With that said, it's worth mentioning that McNabb was playing with a sports hernia for much of the year before finally being sidelined the rest of the season with the injury following the Week 10 game against Dallas.

 

Before Owens ever joined the Eagles, McNabb was still a force in the league and in fantasy football. While 2003 was one of his worst seasons - just 3216 yards, 16 TDs and 11 Ints in a full 16 games (he also ran for 3 TDs and 355 yards) - 2002 was a different story. Before missing the remainder of the regular season following a broken ankle in Week 11, McNabb was on pace to throw for 3662 yards and 27 TDs. He also ran for 460 yards and 6 TDs in the 10 games he was healthy enough to play. His receivers that season? James Thrash, Todd Pinkston, Antonio Freeman and Freddie Mitchell with Chad Lewis at TE.

 

In 2000 (McNabb's first as a starter) and 2001, McNabb averaged roughly 3300 yards and 23 TD passes a season. Outside of his rushing totals (621/6 in '00 and 482/2 in '01), along with a slight boost in TD passes thrown (21 in '00 and 25 in '01), his final statistics in those two seasons were a near identical split.

 

Entering the 2006 campaign, McNabb will again find himself with a less than stellar cast of receivers. Terrell Owens is gone and attemtping to fill his shoes will be promising 2nd year wideout Reggie Brown. Todd Pinkston will return after missing all of last year with an ACL injury and Jabar Gaffney has been added to the mix via free angency. The other receiver spots will be determined in camp and throughout the pre-season. Brian Westbrook, good for 65-80 receptions a year, will also be on the field along with tight end L.J. Smith.

 

The bigger question here might be how often will McNabb run the ball. In his first 5 seasons McNabb averaged 448 yards rushing and 3.5 rushing TDs a year. Since Owens arrived those averages have dropped to just 137 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs per year.

 

Will a healthy McNabb step-up and deliver in the same fashion he did before Owens arrived, or will his reluctance to run continue and his recent brush with injuries carry over into the '06 season causing fantasy owners to regret drafting him?

[jocstrap 8]

Stepping Down - Just like Jim Kelly and the Bills - only so long you can strive in the NFL. Mathematically all is against him. 4 NFC championships is awesome. Look at Dallas also Up (3 superbowl rings?), then way down, now on the rebound. I believe the Eagles have to hit the bottom which wasn't last year, and Mcnaab will be replaced. The glory days are over. You can only be the best for so long then it ends in a miserable way.

 

First time I've said this but.....STEPPING DOWN

[Terry4tw 0]

What exactly do the Eagles winning Super Bowls have to do with his fantasy numbers?

[jocstrap 8]

What exactly do the Eagles winning Super Bowls have to do with his fantasy numbers?

 

A team/player is only great for so long then it all goes down hill. You can't be a top 3 qb pick for 7 years can you? His time is up ala Aikman, Emmitt, Kelley, Thomas, Irving, Reed and so on. Favre is the ONLY one beating the odds - and if this year is the same as last...well his time is up also.

[Wildman 0]

I believe he steps up. 2000-2001 were good fantasy seasons without Owens or Westbrook. Yes, they were rush-aided, and to believe he'll be a 450-yard ground gainer is unrealistic. But 3300-3600 yards passing with 24-26 scores seems realistic to me. I also think 4-7 touchdowns on the ground are realistic because he can still put pressure on the defense in the redzone where Westbrook/Moats may not be the conventional goal line type.

 

Year	G	Pct	Pass Yds	Pass Tds	INT	Rush Yds	Rush Att	Rush Tds	FFpts
1999	12	49.07%	948	8	7	313	47	0	110.7
2000	16	58.00%	3365	21	13	629	86	6	351.15
2001	16	57.81%	3233	25	12	482	82	2	321.85
2002	10	58.45%	2289	17	6	460	63	6	264.45
2003	16	57.53%	3216	16	11	355	71	3	278.3
2004	15	63.97%	3875	31	8	220	41	3	357.75
2005	9	59.10%	2507	16	9	55	25	1	200.85

 

Reggie Brown, L.J. Smith, and Westbrook could be a decent trio--especially if Moats shows anything remotely similar as a runner in 2006 that he did in 2005 because that will allow Philly to put Westbrook in the slot. The question marks are Gaffney, Schobel, and the rookie receivers.

 

If you take McNabb's 2001 season, zero out his 482 yards rushing and scores. He'd be the 16th-ranked quarterback for that year. If you half his rushing totals which is more around his 2004 range as runner, he would have been the 10th-ranked QB for 2001...if you applied these stats in 2005, he would have been the 4th-best fantasy QB in terms of total fantasy points.

 

It's hard for me not to believe a healthy McNabb doesn't improve his yardage stats from 2000-2003. I don't believe he'll hit the 30-TD mark because T.O. was a great big play threat. But I thinkthe number I mentioned is realistic. If Brown or Westbrook step up and have a career year, which I also think is possible, he could near that total...I'm not counting on it, but I do believe he does well enough to say McNabb will be a decent fantasy starter all year and that's a step up from last year.

[jocstrap 8]

I believe he steps up. 2000-2001 were good fantasy seasons without Owens or Westbrook. Yes, they were rush-aided, and to believe he'll be a 450-yard ground gainer is unrealistic. But 3300-3600 yards passing with 24-26 scores seems realistic to me. I also think 4-7 touchdowns on the ground are realistic because he can still put pressure on the defense in the redzone where Westbrook/Moats may not be the conventional goal line type.

 

Year	G	Pct	Pass Yds	Pass Tds	INT	Rush Yds	Rush Att	Rush Tds	FFpts
1999	12	49.07%	948	8	7	313	47	0	110.7
2000	16	58.00%	3365	21	13	629	86	6	351.15
2001	16	57.81%	3233	25	12	482	82	2	321.85
2002	10	58.45%	2289	17	6	460	63	6	264.45
2003	16	57.53%	3216	16	11	355	71	3	278.3
2004	15	63.97%	3875	31	8	220	41	3	357.75
2005	9	59.10%	2507	16	9	55	25	1	200.85

 

Reggie Brown, L.J. Smith, and Westbrook could be a decent trio--especially if Moats shows anything remotely similar as a runner in 2006 that he did in 2005 because that will allow Philly to put Westbrook in the slot. The question marks are Gaffney, Schobel, and the rookie receivers.

 

If you take McNabb's 2001 season, zero out his 482 yards rushing and scores. He'd be the 16th-ranked quarterback for that year. If you half his rushing totals which is more around his 2004 range as runner, he would have been the 10th-ranked QB for 2001...if you applied these stats in 2005, he would have been the 4th-best fantasy QB in terms of total fantasy points.

 

It's hard for me not to believe a healthy McNabb doesn't improve his yardage stats from 2000-2003. I don't believe he'll hit the 30-TD mark because T.O. was a great big play threat. But I thinkthe number I mentioned is realistic. If Brown or Westbrook step up and have a career year, which I also think is possible, he could near that total...I'm not counting on it, but I do believe he does well enough to say McNabb will be a decent fantasy starter all year and that's a step up from last year.

 

By your 24-26 passing td's and 4-7 rushing ----- You are saying Mcnaab will get 30+ combined td's this year!! I will remeber this quote Wildman. That puts him in the top 2 this year Manning, Mcnaab (Palmer's health has me concerned) 30+ I'd almost be willing to put a little wager on this comment - Just ask Terry Silver what happened to his previous name.

[Wildman 0]

By your 24-26 passing td's and 4-7 rushing ----- You are saying Mcnaab will get 30+ combined td's this year!! I will remeber this quote Wildman. That puts him in the top 2 this year Manning, Mcnaab (Palmer's health has me concerned) 30+ I'd almost be willing to put a little wager on this comment - Just ask Terry Silver what happened to his previous name.

 

 

At best it puts him over 30, but I'm more inclined to say conservatively he'll have 4 rushing scores and 24 passing scores--close to 30..., but not over. Whether that places him in the top two this year remains to be seen.

 

Remind me when/if it does/doesn't happen

[SoloMatisse 0]

I think he's steppin' up again. He never had great weapons before TO, and he was a top 5 QB. I think we'll see a return to the top 5 for him. Westbrook and Smith will catch plenty of balls to compensate for their usual lackluster WR corps, but I think Reggie Brown will be a pretty decent WR1 for this team.....the best theyve had outside of Owens for some time. At the end of the season, I expect McNabb will be right around 3800yds and 25TDs, but with minimal rushing stats.....maybe 150rushing yds and a score or 2.

[HeirCoryell 0]

I'm going to have to vote for steppin' down. McNabb's schedule isn't much easier than Eli's -especially the last half of the year/Playoffs. T.O. is gone. The days of Donovan being willing/able to put up solid to good rushing numbers seem to be in the past.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Steppin down. He's already overvalued in my opinion since his ADP is currently 5.07 and he's the 5th QB taken at Antsports. That's a round too early for me and I'd take Hasselbeck ahead of him too since his ADP is currently lower at 5.08. McNabb would probably be about 7th on my list right now.

[OD99 0]

Steppin' up for sure.

 

If he is the #5 ranked QB I will be ecstatic because I can get him later. I see the whole offense being more efficient this year - LJ is a year older, R.Brown is maturing, Pinkston is back and Westy will apparently run more to balance the attack.

 

I also think you will see Donovan scramble for some big gainers this season. I suspect he will come into camp trimmer and maybe even stronger in the legs (and the core) after coming off rehab and focusing on that area.

[Rye & Leaf 0]

When he went out because of injury in 2005, he was #1 or #2 qb in all the leagues I played in. Look for a slight decline in his numbers this year, but I don't expect him to fall outside the top 5 in Andy Reid's offense.

[HawgWild 0]

I say steppin' down... His best years are behind him.. That is not to say he won't put up decent numbers.. I would say he could finish in the top 10 but I don't think he will get back to top 5...

[Kilroy 0]

I say steppin' down... His best years are behind him.. That is not to say he won't put up decent numbers.. I would say he could finish in the top 10 but I don't think he will get back to top 5...

 

When I do projections before my draft I'll found out where I think he'll fall, but I'd imagine he'll be somewhere in the 4-8 range. He certaintly doesn't seem as valuable as he used to be, but he's played well before with less around him.

 

It may not be a stellar group, but I think the combination of Reggie Brown, Jabar Gaffney and Todd Pinkston is better than any trio McNabb had to work with before Owens arrived. L.J. Smith is more of a receiving threat than Chad Lewis was in his later years and Brian Westbrook is just as reliable a recevier as Staley had ever been. Even moreso because of they way they can manuever him out of the backfield.

 

If it weren't for McNabb's reluctance to run with the ball lately, I think I'd still say he's Top 5. Without him taking off as much it has me thinking he falls into that 4-8 range. On the other hand, he may scramble a bit more now that he doesn't have Terrell Owens to throw to on every play.

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

I would think you automatically gotta say steppin' up only because last year was a disaster for the entire organization.

 

Although he's lost TO, he may have gained a new commitment to the running game by Andy Reid. Anyone who thinks Big Red's gonna throw as much this year compared to the past 2 years is crazy.

 

McNabb is at his best when there is balance on offense. The receivers aren't gonna set the world on fire, but they're not the crap he had pre TO, neither.

 

He'll run more this year because he has to. He doesn't have the option of sitting back and just chucking it up for Owens anymore.

 

The offense is now really gonna have to work for their points, and there is enough talent there to make it happen. McNabb is also in much better shape this season (not that he's been in bad shape, but he's played too big).

 

Time will tell, but I think he rebounds. 5 rushing and 23 passing TD's is what I look for.

[phillybear 364]

Aside from the usual arguments, I am wondering if the offensive play calling is starting to become a detriment.

 

Andy Reid's play calls are starting to become somewhat predictable. It sure seems like the teams in the NFC East have caught up with it. And since you have had a coaching staff in place for so long, it is only to be expected. The Eagles need to change things up.

[xenophobe 1]

A QB on a team losing arguably the biggest on the field impact WR in the game coming off a season ending injury has two big flags against him in my book. Sure, maybe he'll return from injury to the form he had three years ago prior to having TO, but this is not an assumption I'm prepared to make. I'll go with Stepping Down.

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

Aside from the usual arguments, I am wondering if the offensive play calling is starting to become a detriment.

 

Andy Reid's play calls are starting to become somewhat predictable. It sure seems like the teams in the NFC East have caught up with it. And since you have had a coaching staff in place for so long, it is only to be expected. The Eagles need to change things up.

 

Uh, Brad Childress is in Minnesota, and Marty M. is taking over the offense.

 

Big Red's been on the record as saying that they will run the ball more. I don't discount that statement, because when they had Buckhalter/Staley/Westbrook, they led the league in rushing yards.

 

Look at where throwing the ball got them last year? Do people honestly think he'll repeat his own mistakes?

 

They have to run the ball more. They really have no other choice. I also see McNabb going back to the shorter passing game. Why? Because they have no choice.

 

I definitely see Westbrook catching 80 plus out of the backfield this season. Now if he's averaging at least 5ypc, isn't that just as good as a 5 yard run?

 

The offense won't be prolific like it was in the Super Bowl year, but there still is talent there. Who knows, maybe their second year stud steps up to be the #1 this year?

[TD Ryan2 314]

ADP is currently 5.07

 

I vote steppin' up.

 

I'd love to land McNabb in the 5th round.

[phillybear 364]

Uh, Brad Childress is in Minnesota, and Marty M. is taking over the offense.

 

Which was a shocking hire to me, since the general consensus is that Childress really didn't do a lot for the offensive game plan, and Reid called whatever he wanted anyway. Reid is pretty stubborn when it comes to play calling, so I can't imagine that swapping Childress for Morningweg is going to make a difference.

 

But I could be wrong.

[Belushi 9]

Stepping up. I don't think it could be much worse than last season, and his rookie WR's have another year experience. With the TO debacle out of the way, he should be more focused.

 

I'm not a doctor, but I've heard that those sports hernia's could come back easily. That worries me if I'm taking him as one of the first few QB's.

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

Which was a shocking hire to me, since the general consensus is that Childress really didn't do a lot for the offensive game plan, and Reid called whatever he wanted anyway. Reid is pretty stubborn when it comes to play calling, so I can't imagine that swapping Childress for Morningweg is going to make a difference.

 

But I could be wrong.

 

Childress helped Big Red design the offense.

 

I completely understand that in the past, Reid's playcalling has been questionable at times. However, one would hope that he would learn from his mistakes (let's face it, 75% passing didn't exactly work last season).

 

I think Marty's a much needed change in the coaching staff. I never completely understood the value of Childress, and I'm quite shocked that he got a head coaching job.

[Kilroy 0]

Childress helped Big Red design the offense.

 

I completely understand that in the past, Reid's playcalling has been questionable at times. However, one would hope that he would learn from his mistakes (let's face it, 75% passing didn't exactly work last season).

 

I think Marty's a much needed change in the coaching staff. I never completely understood the value of Childress, and I'm quite shocked that he got a head coaching job.

 

I always saw Childress as being more of a student of Andy Reid's rather than someone that was going to offer his own unique incite on the offensive game plan. Not to say he didn't contribute to how the offense was run, but when everything he's been taught at the NFL level has come from Reid, how much can you expect him to differentiate from that philosophy?

 

Andy Reid brought Mornhinweg to the staff going into the 2003 season. He named him assistant head coach at the time, but Childress was already being talked about as a head coach canidate and it was only a matter of time before he accepted an offer and Mornhinweg was given the offensive coordinator position. It's something Reid likely had thought out since he first hired Mornhinweg.

 

Most people remember Marty Mornhinweg as the head coach of the Lions that failed miserably, but he was also the 49ers offensive coordinator from 1997-2000 and oversaw offenses that included a young Terrell Owens emergence and breakout seasons from Charlie Garner. He also found success with QBs Steve Young and Jeff Garcia.

 

Between Reid's insistance that he must balance the offense more this season and Mornhinweg's success as an offensive coordinator in the past, I'm hoping we'll see some of Brian Westbrook's best seasons coming up and continued growth from Reggie Brown. I'm much more excited about the Reid-Mornhinweg tandem than I ever was of the Reid-Childress one.

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

I always saw Childress as being more of a student of Andy Reid's rather than someone that was going to offer his own unique incite on the offensive game plan. Not to say he didn't contribute to how the offense was run, but when everything he's been taught at the NFL level has come from Reid, how much can you expect him to differentiate from that philosophy?

 

Andy Reid brought Mornhinweg to the staff going into the 2003 season. He named him assistant head coach at the time, but Childress was already being talked about as a head coach canidate and it was only a matter of time before he accepted an offer and Mornhinweg was given the offensive coordinator position. It's something Reid likely had thought out since he first hired Mornhinweg.

 

Most people remember Marty Mornhinweg as the head coach of the Lions that failed miserably, but he was also the 49ers offensive coordinator from 1997-2000 and oversaw offenses that included a young Terrell Owens emergence and breakout seasons from Charlie Garner. He also found success with QBs Steve Young and Jeff Garcia.

 

Between Reid's insistance that he must balance the offense more this season and Mornhinweg's success as an offensive coordinator in the past, I'm hoping we'll see some of Brian Westbrook's best seasons coming up and continued growth from Reggie Brown. I'm much more excited about the Reid-Mornhinweg tandem than I ever was of the Reid-Childress one.

 

Reid and Marty were buds, and when Marty got fired, Reid threw him a bone and gave him a job.

 

I was never much of a Childress fan. Granted, Reid wasn't very good at drafting WRs. With that said, I never saw the young receivers improve. If Childress is not designing the offense and calling plays, he has to be coaching the positional players. That is just my theory.

 

I really like what Marty did with the Niners, especially the player that Charlie Garner turned into.

 

With the Phillies doing their annual tanking, I'm really itching for training camp.