Beware the ADP

[jgcrawfish 232]

I've not been one to do these before, but tried out a couple of mock drafts just to play and see where players are going. I've determined I'm not putting a tremendous amount of stock in some of this. I got stuck away from the computer for a while and the draft turned back around pretty quickly and I got put on computer control. Stupid computer picked Todd Heap for me at 2:04 spot in a 12 teamer, w/ top tier RB and 3rd RB still on the board. So I got to looking at several of the drafts and noticed that because they're mock style, and not real, nobody seems too concerned about the unusual bye week schedule, nor can you take into account the value of RB in a Flex league where RB dominate things. This puts a dent in some of the Best Player Available/ADP draft method. What's your thoughts?

[ellisonb11 0]

of course, many ADPs are flawed, so i dont follow them too much. ive done many mocks at mocdraftcentral, and its good when there are people present, but when the computer selects, its bad. dont trust the ADPs!

 

i havent seen todd heap being drafted in the 2nd though.

[jgcrawfish 232]

I've not been one to do these before, but tried out a couple of mock drafts just to play and see where players are going. I've determined I'm not putting a tremendous amount of stock in some of this. I got stuck away from the computer for a while and the draft turned back around pretty quickly and I got put on computer control. Stupid computer picked Todd Heap for me at 2:04 spot in a 12 teamer, w/ top tier RB and 3rd RB still on the board. So I got to looking at several of the drafts and noticed that because they're mock style, and not real, nobody seems too concerned about the unusual bye week schedule, nor can you take into account the value of RB in a Flex league where RB dominate things. This puts a dent in some of the Best Player Available/ADP draft method. What's your thoughts?

 

 

Sorry, typo...4.04 spot, but it was still WAY higher than I would have taken him, particularly since he's typically available 1-3 rnds later. But somebody went after Gates, next guy followed w/ Gonzales and the comp stuck w/ Heap. Oddly, my gut says he may outproduce Gonzales this year and may get close to Gates #'s w/ Rivers learning and with McNair and his propensity toward TE in BMore. But still, I scrambled the rest of the draft to make up the missed RB/WR.

[Wildman 0]

That's the problem with mock draft sites, unrealistic picks by the computer.

 

Would you have a different view of ADP with a computer drafting for other teams if you knew you could do the following:

 

1. For each team the computer represented you could enter the team's draft strategy:

a. Did they use a stud RB strategy

b. Follow AVT or VBD principles...maybe even consistency principles

c. Have homer tendencies with a team

d. Draft favorite players over others if the value is very close

e. Skip players you know they don't like.

f. List rounds where teams will or will not begin picking certain positions based on your knowledge of your league.

 

2. For each draft you could enter your own scoring rules for the league.

 

3. You can do mocks with keeper leagues by listing players the team already has.

 

4. ADP reports can be queried by similarity of your league with others?

 

 

Just curious if this would change your point of view...it's something I'm working on

[football_scooter 0]

That's the problem with mock draft sites, unrealistic picks by the computer.

 

Would you have a different view of ADP with a computer drafting for other teams if you knew you could do the following:

 

1. For each team the computer represented you could enter the team's draft strategy:

a. Did they use a stud RB strategy

b. Follow AVT or VBD principles...maybe even consistency principles

c. Have homer tendencies with a team

d. Draft favorite players over others if the value is very close

e. Skip players you know they don't like.

f. List rounds where teams will or will not begin picking certain positions based on your knowledge of your league.

 

2. For each draft you could enter your own scoring rules for the league.

 

3. You can do mocks with keeper leagues by listing players the team already has.

 

4. ADP reports can be queried by similarity of your league with others?

Just curious if this would change your point of view...it's something I'm working on

 

 

Matt, if you put this out, you'd be a golden god among men second only to THE Teddy Bruschi.

 

This is something I've whined about needing for far too long - I would not like something like this, I would looooooove something like this. :wub: Not in a healthy way, either - I'd tell it I just wanted to go for a walk, then molest it in the bushes.

[Vikings4ever 550]

If you're using antsports ADP, it doesn't count computer selections.

 

HTH

[Wildman 0]

Matt, if you put this out, you'd be a golden god among men second only to THE Teddy Bruschi.

 

This is something I've whined about needing for far too long - I would not like something like this, I would looooooove something like this. Not in a healthy way, either

 

 

Let's just say the idea was conceived 3 years ago, has been in the embryonic stages for 2 years, and has left the womb last week. Hopefully will be ready by next spring for public use...

 

Another thing...if it works like as designed, you can practice and do several mocks on your own (adjusting different tendencies and strategies each time to see different and fairly accurate results based on your input) within a couple of hours....

 

You can have everyone or no one participate and still get something wortwhile from it through the ability to control what the computer will consider with it's choice.

[Let Da Big Dog Eat 40]

Let's just say the idea was conceived 3 years ago, has been in the embryonic stages for 2 years, and has left the womb last week. Hopefully will be ready by next spring for public use...

 

Another thing...if it works like as designed, you can practice and do several mocks on your own (adjusting different tendencies and strategies each time to see different and fairly accurate results based on your input) within a couple of hours....

 

You can have everyone or no one participate and still get something wortwhile from it through the ability to control what the computer will consider with it's choice.

 

This sounds fantastic. I put little faith in current mocks because of all the variables you mentioned.

 

And as to Antsports disregarding computer picks, that really makes no difference. It still means that those picks after the computer pick are all scewed.

[BringBackBernie 0]

This sounds fantastic. I put little faith in current mocks because of all the variables you mentioned.

 

And as to Antsports disregarding computer picks, that really makes no difference. It still means that those picks after the computer pick are all scewed.

 

You are incorrect. ADP on Antsports only takes mock drafts where every single pick is picked by the drafter. In otherwords, there are absolutely 0 CC's from the first pick to the last pick of the draft. ]

 

However, those of us who mock on Antsports and are serious about it, black list anyone who goes on CC and do not let them in any future drafts. You are either there to draft, or not. If you go CC, then that tells us you have better things to do. It really ticks people off when they wait for a draft to start and then someone lets their draft go to computer control. You ruin the whole draft for everyone else.