Value and sleepers

[p00h 85]

Now I am a seasoned veteran of fantasy football, and I consistently come in the money, let me get that out of the way...

 

What I am having a hard time understanding is the constant talk of value and sleepers in regards to complete unknowns. I completely understand the concept of value during drafting, and I completely understand the concept of sleeprs. What I do not understand is the hard ons for complete unknowns. People strutt around talkin about, eh he's ok, doesn't have much upside, but so and so was a steal in the 15th, and has huge upside. I play in leagues of 10 teams, 12, and 14, and even in the 14 team league, we don't start the likes of butros butros ghali. Am I missing something, or is it just fantasy nerds actin all cool about some inside info they believe to have. At the end of the year, I'd rather have marvin and his consistent 1200 yards and 10 tds than get a hard on for chris perry and his possible breakout year. Dunno, just wanted to throw it out there to maybe get a better grasp, cuz sometimes I feel like I'm missing out on something, and then sometimes I feel like this is all just retard talk from uber nerds...

[hoffdaddy 1]

Everybody has a gut feeling about certain players, and that sometimes leads to over-valuing. In the situation you described above, was there really someone who'd draft Chris Perry ahead of Marvin Harrison?

 

Most often, you need to draft your sleepers where they should be drafted; in the late rounds. If someone else jumps up to get them earlier than they should go, then you let them take the risk. You sit back and grab Mr. Consistent. That's how you get value in the draft, grabbing the guys who aren't hype, but consistently perform.

[p00h 85]

Everybody has a gut feeling about certain players, and that sometimes leads to over-valuing. In the situation you described above, was there really someone who'd draft Chris Perry ahead of Marvin Harrison?

 

Most often, you need to draft your sleepers where they should be drafted; in the late rounds. If someone else jumps up to get them earlier than they should go, then you let them take the risk. You sit back and grab Mr. Consistent. That's how you get value in the draft, grabbing the guys who aren't hype, but consistently perform.

 

 

You missed my point. Simply put, my point is that even though a chris perry might be a sleeper in the 12th round, what are the odds of him contributing to your team. I mean every year there are about 3 really really unknown players that come through and are fantasy options on a weekly basis. I'm talkin really unknowns. It's one thing to believe Matt Jones will blow up this year, but to go on and on and on about maurice drew and how you got him in the 14th as a steal is over analyzing. That is the point. The way many go on and on about some of these players who will not only not contributre this year, but most likely won't even be in the league in 3 years is just stupid. Some cats think they are actual NFL gms, which is laughable at best. That was the point I was trying to convey. People asking, 'who is starting opposite horn. 3 other guys will step in and talk about this guy has the inside track, keep an eye on this, blahblahblah. Does it matter who is starting opposite of horn? Will that individual, whomever it may be, really be a viable starting option? Answer is no, unless you're in a 20 man leauge or you are required to start 9 wes. So over analyzing those individuals is retarded, and makes one a fantssy 'know it all' nerd...

[jgcrawfish 232]

You missed my point. Simply put, my point is that even though a chris perry might be a sleeper in the 12th round, what are the odds of him contributing to your team. I mean every year there are about 3 really really unknown players that come through and are fantasy options on a weekly basis. I'm talkin really unknowns. It's one thing to believe Matt Jones will blow up this year, but to go on and on and on about maurice drew and how you got him in the 14th as a steal is over analyzing. That is the point. The way many go on and on about some of these players who will not only not contributre this year, but most likely won't even be in the league in 3 years is just stupid. Some cats think they are actual NFL gms, which is laughable at best. That was the point I was trying to convey. People asking, 'who is starting opposite horn. 3 other guys will step in and talk about this guy has the inside track, keep an eye on this, blahblahblah. Does it matter who is starting opposite of horn? Will that individual, whomever it may be, really be a viable starting option? Answer is no, unless you're in a 20 man leauge or you are required to start 9 wes. So over analyzing those individuals is retarded, and makes one a fantssy 'know it all' nerd...

 

All it takes is one good guess buddy...anybody who landed Willie Parker last year, and maybe Wali Lundy this year, might be holding the difference between a good team and great team.

[kcsportsguy 0]

Getting value with your picks is getting them in the spot they should go, or getting them later when they should have gone early. If you were able to get Peyton Manning in the 3rd or 4th round, that pick had a lot of value or if Owens fell to the 6th round, again value.

 

 

The concept is not to reach to early. You don't go picking sleepers in the 6th and 7th round. Everyone knows who those sleepers are and some owners reach to early and don't get value for their pick. The known goes before the unknown.

 

 

When you drafting a player in a round that you would consider it a steal for him to still be available at that time, then that player selection is a value pick.

[Junkie 0]

All it takes is one good guess buddy...anybody who landed Willie Parker last year, and maybe Wali Lundy this year, might be holding the difference between a good team and great team.

 

Or Greg Jennings this year...in the 14th round. Maybe I'm an uber nerd and I'm overanalyzing, I don't know, but as the season rolls along I feel like he may have a shot at starting on one of my teams. We start 3 WRs, so starting him as my #3 provides little risk, but potentially alot of reward.

 

Every year there's a Boldin-type player who comes out of nowhere. People that pump up their sleepers are just hoping they got that guy.

 

 

You say you'd rather grab a player in the late rounds that's proven rather than a guy you've never seen play. I have to disagree. In the late rounds (where you'll find all of your sleepers) I grab guys with potential over guys with a history of mediocre performance, otherwise I'm stuck with a bunch of guys that have proven they are only worthy of a late round pick. What good are they?

 

It's the early rounds when you get the proven players.

[norseman 0]

I don't understand what you don't understand. Part of the fun of FF is picking sleepers who nobody else really thought was going to be productive. For example, three years ago, I picked up Steve Smith in the 15th round. He ended up with 1,100 yards and 7 TDs, and he helped me win a championship. Now, I didn't KNOW that he'd have such a good season, and I didn't go around after the draft telling everyone what a great value I got taking him in the second-to-last round, but I suspected he might have a chance to do well, and he did. That success alone helped make up for the fact that I also took Trung Canidate in the 6th round that year. It was great to be right in the 15th.

 

I'm sure many FFers have had this same feeling of euphoria when they've correctly picked a sleeper in the late rounds. So, that's one of the things that many of us are trying to do when we draft in the 14th, 15th, 16th rounds -- find that one guy who could be a difference maker, the guy who nobody else really wanted and only we were able to recognize as having potential. That's fun. What else is fun about drafting in the last few rounds?

 

Now, maybe guys around here crow too much about what a great value they got with such-and-such player, but guys around here crow too much about a lot of things. I, for one, understand it.

[AlamoReg 1]

A good sleeper pick can put you over the top, especially if you misfire on a pick early. Last year, I rolled the dice with TO in round 2, and 6 weeks in, I had the best team in the league by far. TO gets suspended, gone for the year, and I lose my WR1. Could have been in deep trouble.

 

But I had grabbed Joey Galloway (who if you recall was TOTALLY under the radar last year) as my WR4 in round 12. People laughed at me over that pick on draft day, because he had bad stats the year before and looked to be totally overshadowed by Michael Clayton. But he came back late in '04 and put up solid stats for the last couple of games, which I had filed away. Anyway, I was able to plug him into the lineup, didn't miss a beat and cruised to the #1 seed (and then got knocked off in the playoffs by Tiki).

 

By any definition, Joey Galloway '05 was a breakout "sleeper" (albeit not completely unproven) who provided excellent "value".

[p00h 85]

All it takes is one good guess buddy...anybody who landed Willie Parker last year, and maybe Wali Lundy this year, might be holding the difference between a good team and great team.

 

 

Yes, that wali lundy is going to be a game breaker man, can't wait till end of season when he's sittin on 1800 total yards and 14 tds!

 

Over analysis kiddies. If you're in a 10-14 team league, there are enough known commodities that you shouldn't be wasting time starting the likes of lundis till they prove themselves over, lets say, atleast a 3 game stretch...

[zaurg 0]

Yes, that wali lundy is going to be a game breaker man, can't wait till end of season when he's sittin on 1800 total yards and 14 tds!

 

Over analysis kiddies. If you're in a 10-14 team league, there are enough known commodities that you shouldn't be wasting time on the likes of lundis till they prove themselves over, lets say, atleast a 3 game stretch...

 

 

14 team league and there are "enough known commodities"... in the mid/late rounds... and you wouldn't take Wali Lundy, a starting RB?

 

 

norseman said it perfectly. Read his post. It should help clear up any of your FF comprehension issues.

[p00h 85]

14 team league and there are "enough known commodities"... in the mid/late rounds... and you wouldn't take Wali Lundy, a starting RB?

 

 

We're speaking of 2 different things. Taking him is fine. He will get taken by someone, whether they overanalyze the situation or not. Starting him, or even talkin junk like you know something others dont in regards to the player is stupid. That is the point of this entire thread. Everyone gets drafted if your league has enough teams and a deep roster. It's talkin smack about some unknowns like you're 'in the loop' on something others aren't is retarded, when 99 out of the 100 unknowns, including the likes of lundi, will not produce much. That 1 that will, well whoever got him is lucky. Got him through attrition in the draft, not via some inside info ony you were privy to. Dig it?

[zaurg 0]

We're speaking of 2 different things. Taking him is fine. He will get taken by someone, whether they overanalyze the situation or not. Starting him, or even talkin junk like you know something others dont in regards to the player is stupid. That is the point of this entire thread. Everyone gets drafted if your league has enough teams and a deep roster. It's talkin smack about some unknowns like you're 'in the loop' on something others aren't is retarded, when 99 out of the 100 unknowns, including the likes of lundi, will not produce much. That 1 that will, well whoever got him is lucky. Got him through attrition in the draft, not via some inside info ony you were privy to. Dig it?

 

 

Ah, gotcha now.

And with that said... Lundy was taken in the 3rd round in my league. I was happy to see him go that early to someone else.

[p00h 85]

Ah, gotcha now.

And with that said... Lundy was taken in the 3rd round in my league. I was happy to see him go that early to someone else.

 

 

perfect illustration of my point in real life. Some schmuck who's reading boards like this one all too much got caught up int the hype. I bet Jamal lewis and 5 other starting backs were still there for teh taking. 'Oh fred taylor, he doesn't have much upside. I like wali lundi, blahblahblah.' Proven commodity over unknown commodity. Common sense. I see it year in and year out. Mainly since the advent of websites/board like this one. Not knocking the board, I think it's great. Lots of useful info that you wouldn't be able to amass otherwise unless you had 8 hrs a day scouring the internet. But some cats get too crazy about the 3rd wr on the saints who's moving up the depth chart and might be named the starter across from horn! Whoop dee doo, just cuz he's starting doesn't mean he'll outscore TJ whosyourmama over the course of a season. Every once in a blue moon, you'll get that anquan boldin, but there is no way in hell anyone was sweating him from the get go. If anyone drafted him, ti was because he was the next best wr letf on the board in round 18. Others got him via free agency and probably still acted like they knew something no one else did. That is the point being made. Quite amusing, and also profitable when others behave in this manner. It's the opposite of the guy who buys a fantasy football magazine in june and drafts off that, but often the results are quite the same...

[wizbang 10]

As a long time ffl owner this should be obvious by now.

 

You can always drop Reggie Williams for Brandon Stokley but no sane person drops Anquan Boldin for Bobby Engram. THAT is the value and every year in every league a few teams hit on a late round wonder. Those teams tend to kick arse, hence the many discussions. This is even more relevant in dynasty leagues (where Norwood's 10 carries for 66 yards actually means something more than what could be if Dunn were to get hurt).