****Official College Wagering Thread****

[dain11279 928]

Yep. Hawaii, along with Penn St, have made me the most money of any college teams the last two years. I already hit with Hawaii plus the points at Alabama, in a game they should have won, Hawaii 2nd half vs Alabama, and the blow out win over UNLV last week. +9 units on Hawaii so far this year, so I am rolling the dice with them again.

 

One key is to look at last years game at Hawaii, where Boise St won 44-41. Looking at the game more closely, Hawaii outgained BSU 556-430, Boise St scored on 42-yd int. return, 92-yd. punt return, 69-yd. blocked FG return. That's a lot fluke points. Hawaii scored an apparent game-tying TD with 3:31 to go, but Boise St blocked the extra point attempt and returned it for 2 pts. Hawaii got robbed, but were clearly the better team that day.

 

Hawaii spend last year rebuilding, playing a lot of freshmen and sophmores, and they are solidly contributing this year. Specifically the defense, which is vastly improved this year. The rank #25 vs the run, which is what Boise St wants to do, to keep the amazing Hawaii offense off the field. Boise St struggled at Wyoming last week, barely winning 17-10, and that included a Boise St INT for a TD. Their offense struggled mightily. Hawaii put up nearly 400 yards of offense on Alabama, then put up over 600 yards of offense on UNLV. And the UNLV game would have gotten much more ugly if not for the Hawaii backups coming in and turning the ball over and blowing scoring chances. The week before, UNLV held Iowa St to only 16 points. The only drawback to Hawaii is turnovers, but most have come by the backups, and with throws up for grabs at the end of halves and the final play of a game. And when you have an offense that throws this much, well, you can relate it to the St Louis Rams and Mike Martz with turnovers. This year, Hawaii has added a running game to the mix, witih a 295 bruiser in the backfield. And they ran for over 200 yards last week. Hawaii is averaging 7.1 yards per play vs teams that allow 5.8. Colt Brennan is ahead of the pace that Timmy Chang set at Hawaii.

 

While Boise St is dominant at home, covering 20 out of 22 at home when not favored at home by 28 or more points, this is the only reason why I am not making Hawaii a 5 unit play. Believe it or not, I think the wrong team is favored here. Hawaii can win the WAC this year. The linesmakers still haven't adjusted for how well Hawaii is playing right now, as they have covered both of their first two games easily. Boise St still hasn't played anyone decent yet, beating Sac St, Oregon St, and Wyoming. And remember, Wyoming lost to Virginia, the team that was on TV last night, showing how bad they are. Hawaii is flying under the radar, and if they give Boise St a tough game, they will be noticed more. Hawaii is a live dog in a game that figures to be a back and forth shootout.

 

I was actually just being a smart-a$$ when i said that cuz u ALWAYS take hawaii. Thx for the insight into the game tho.

[phillybear 364]

I was actually just being a smart-a$$ when i said that cuz u ALWAYS take hawaii. Thx for the insight into the game tho.

 

No worries.

 

Boise St is getting 76% of the action, so I figured Hawaii wouldn't be a popular pick. Plus the home/away dichotomy, with Boise St's very strong home field and Hawaii over the years has struggled on the road.

[EAwer 1]

Philly, is your Kent St pick the same as Kent +7 vs Bowling Green? i cant find Kent ST

 

thanks

[Bouve 0]

Not that anyone cares but I will have my picks up later tonight.

[phillybear 364]

Philly, is your Kent St pick the same as Kent +7 vs Bowling Green? i cant find Kent ST

 

thanks

 

Yes. Old habit. Kent St changing to Kent. Troy St changing to Troy. SWMissouri St (college hoops) changing to Missouri St. Different books use the old name. Different books use the new name.

 

 

Not that anyone cares but I will have my picks up later tonight.

 

Keep posting away. I am always curious as to what everyone else is taking.

[gummo_dude 0]

Hey philly, you playing the CFL game tonight?

[phillybear 364]

Hey philly, you playing the CFL game tonight?

 

I played Edmonton (-12) for 2 units. Turnaround revenge game from an embarrasing loss at Hamilton last week. Hamilton actually winning a game was a blind squirrel finding an acorn, as they are the worst team in the CFL. But I had Hamilton last week, so I'm happy they won. Edmonton let down after a huge comeback victory in a must win the prior week over Calgary. Refocused Eskimos tonight. Edmonton can't afford to lose this game, with a big matchup with Saskatchewan, ahead of them in the standings, looming. Hamilton 1-6 SU on the road. Another must win for Edmonton.

[Big4Jerm3 0]

My picks so far....

 

Nevada -7 $30/26

 

Notre Dam -3 $50/45

[Yer mom 2]

Not that anyone cares but I will have my picks up later tonight.

 

 

Actually Bouve, youve been doing fairly decent lately buddy.

 

 

After looking at all the angles for tonights game, if it was a Saturday game I wouldnt touch it with Yer moms ten foot pole. But as a degenerate playing with a large backing of the mans money, Nevadas at home and is the better team. Tomorrows not coming quick enough!

 

Nevada -7 for 2 benjis

[phillybear 364]

Lopsided action, percentage of bets placed, as of Friday afternoon....

 

Nevada 76% over Northwestern

Syracuse 80% over Miami OH

Missouri 79% over Ohio U

Louisville 88% over Kansas St

Tennesse 82% over Marshall

Clemson 88% over North Carolina

Florida 70% over Kentucky

Iowa 90% over Illinois

Florida St 74% over Rice

Navy 72% over Tulsa

Virginia Tech 86% over Cincinnati

BYU 83% over Utah St

Ohio St 77% over Penn St

Texas 73% over Iowa St

UCLA 82% over Washington

U Conn 79% over Indiana

Central Michigan 77% over Eastern Michigan

Air Force 77% over Wyoming

UTEP 87% over New Mexico

West Virginia 94% over East Carolina

Boston College 84% over North Carolina St

Georgia 77% over Colorado

Western Michigan 88% over Temple

Texas A&M 70% over Louisiana Tech

LSU 89% over Tulane

Utah 91% over San Diego St

Boise St 78% over Hawaii

Notre Dame 80% over Michigan St

USC 90% over Arizona

Oklahoma St 80% over Houston

Oregon St 84% over Idaho

Oklahoma 85% over Middle Tennessee St

Maryland 70% over Florida International

Akron 77% over North Texas

[jmueller44 0]

Lopsided action, percentage of bets placed, as of Friday afternoon....

Please fill us in...

What are you tring to say?

Go in the same direction as the general public - take action on the lopsided games FOR or AGAINST the public?

[GiantsRule 0]

Actually Bouve, youve been doing fairly decent lately buddy.

After looking at all the angles for tonights game, if it was a Saturday game I wouldnt touch it with Yer moms ten foot pole. But as a degenerate playing with a large backing of the mans money, Nevadas at home and is the better team. Tomorrows not coming quick enough!

 

Nevada -7 for 2 benjis

 

Agreed. Bouve has come a long way from the arrogant "Canuck" who insisted that he was a betting guru. It used to be an FFToday staple to fade his plays and make a killing.

 

Once he dropped the gimmicks and started studying the games, he's become a solid handicapper. I'd take a lot of his games in full confidence. Keep it up Bouve!

[Yer mom 2]

Please fill us in...

What are you tring to say?

Go in the same direction as the general public - take action on the lopsided games FOR or AGAINST the public?

 

 

He just provides that as an FYI. He is not persuading you to bet in any direction other than what you like. Generally though, the public gets it wrong, so be weary of really lopsided action!

 

I wish the public was on Northwestern tonight, I have Nevada

[phillybear 364]

Please fill us in...

What are you tring to say?

Go in the same direction as the general public - take action on the lopsided games FOR or AGAINST the public?

 

Just simply saying which teams are getting the action, from a number of offshore sports books. And remember, sports books take in far more action than Vegas, since Vegas has limits on amounts wagered.

 

Over the long haul, most players lose money gambling, and the books turn a profit. This is very important to remember. Wouldn't it make sense to be on the side of sportsbook rather than on the gambler? So it would make sense to bet that way too, over the longhaul. Now, put on your tin foil hat.

 

I am a suspicious long time gambler; I was a bookie many years ago (I think the statute of limitations ran out on that one), I've seen a lot of shady stuff, I've heard a lot of stuff. In the past, I knew of some games that were fixed in college hoops, ahead of time. One long held theory is that there is 50/50 action on each game, and the lines adjust to balance out the action. That is simply not true, as most games have semi-lopsided or lopsided action going on one team. In a perfect world, the books would get even action, sit back, and collect juice. But it just doesn't happen.

 

I like seeing who everyone seems to be on. If the line moves, then, fine, makes sense. If the line doesn't budge, or moves against the action, I get suspicious. Are the books trying to attract more action on a team they don't think will cover? Yes, sometimes the books pick their spots, and want lopsided action in a game. I take note of the percentages on high profile games and TV games, as it seems like some weird stuff happens in those games. Shanked extra points, low FG attempts that get blocked, dropped passes, pass interference, ill timed holding penalties in the red zone, I could go on and on. Honestly, I believe that some games are fixed. I try to avoid potential traps as much as I can. And one way to do that is to check out the percentages. I feel better knowing that I am betting on team that is not receiving lopsided action. Because the chance of shenanigans grows in the situation of a heavy public favorite. I've seen it too many times. But if lopsided action is driving the line, like Florida, Oregon St, Utah this week, then no big deal.

 

The NFL is a tougher nut to crack lately. Used to be, just check the percentages, go against the public on every game, and collect your money. Now, the favorites are covering 60+% of the time, and the public is cleaning up. And I know a lot of local bookies that went out of business, based on the NFL the last two years.

 

One of the things I use in picking a game is to see where the action is going. And try to figure out what the oddsmaker is thinking, because he is more knowledgable than the betting public. Believe me, I overanalyze a lot of games. But I have done OK over the years. The less profile of a game, with less betting action on it, I tend to not pay as much attention to percentages. The more high profile game, like a USC or a Notre Dame national TV game, I look at the game more closely.

 

I am simply posting it as information. Ignore it. Use it. No worries. In college, I will at times go with the lopsided action. I pick and choose my spots. My local book tells me all the time, I don't bet like the rest of his players. I am usually on the opposite side of a game. I take a lot of underdogs. And I normally do decently with wagering. Coincidence? To each his own, as we all look at different angles when making a pick. I hope that I don't sound like a know-it-all ass. I am just trying to do research, pick a bunch of games, grind out a small profit, and share some information that might help some others. I feel really bad when I post a game that loses.

 

That's a lot of rambling. I hope that made some sense.

[thekris 0]

I hope that I don't sound like a know-it-all ass.

 

Not at all. I, along with others I'm sure, appreciate the time you put into it and it's kinda cool to read how you come about to some of your picks. Last week I bet the games you and Hurricane agreed on. Some of them I wasn't 100% confident on but you 2 had an Amazing week last week. I understand it's a risk to follow someone else, and it may not always pan out, but you definitely do your research and take it seriously. Lets hope for another week like that. Go Nevada tonight!!! (they do well, more $ for me to invest with on Saturday)

[Yer mom 2]

Just simply saying which teams are getting the action, from a number of offshore sports books. And remember, sports books take in far more action than Vegas, since Vegas has limits on amounts wagered.

 

Over the long haul, most players lose money gambling, and the books turn a profit. This is very important to remember. Wouldn't it make sense to be on the side of sportsbook rather than on the gambler? So it would make sense to bet that way too, over the longhaul. Now, put on your tin foil hat.

 

I am a suspicious long time gambler; I was a bookie many years ago (I think the statute of limitations ran out on that one), I've seen a lot of shady stuff, I've heard a lot of stuff. In the past, I knew of some games that were fixed in college hoops, ahead of time. One long held theory is that there is 50/50 action on each game, and the lines adjust to balance out the action. That is simply not true, as most games have semi-lopsided or lopsided action going on one team. In a perfect world, the books would get even action, sit back, and collect juice. But it just doesn't happen.

 

I like seeing who everyone seems to be on. If the line moves, then, fine, makes sense. If the line doesn't budge, or moves against the action, I get suspicious. Are the books trying to attract more action on a team they don't think will cover? Yes, sometimes the books pick their spots, and want lopsided action in a game. I take note of the percentages on high profile games and TV games, as it seems like some weird stuff happens in those games. Shanked extra points, low FG attempts that get blocked, dropped passes, pass interference, ill timed holding penalties in the red zone, I could go on and on. Honestly, I believe that some games are fixed. I try to avoid potential traps as much as I can. And one way to do that is to check out the percentages. I feel better knowing that I am betting on team that is not receiving lopsided action. Because the chance of shenanigans grows in the situation of a heavy public favorite. I've seen it too many times. But if lopsided action is driving the line, like Florida, Oregon St, Utah this week, then no big deal.

 

The NFL is a tougher nut to crack lately. Used to be, just check the percentages, go against the public on every game, and collect your money. Now, the favorites are covering 60+% of the time, and the public is cleaning up. And I know a lot of local bookies that went out of business, based on the NFL the last two years.

 

One of the things I use in picking a game is to see where the action is going. And try to figure out what the oddsmaker is thinking, because he is more knowledgable than the betting public. Believe me, I overanalyze a lot of games. But I have done OK over the years. The less profile of a game, with less betting action on it, I tend to not pay as much attention to percentages. The more high profile game, like a USC or a Notre Dame national TV game, I look at the game more closely.

 

I am simply posting it as information. Ignore it. Use it. No worries. In college, I will at times go with the lopsided action. I pick and choose my spots. My local book tells me all the time, I don't bet like the rest of his players. I am usually on the opposite side of a game. I take a lot of underdogs. And I normally do decently with wagering. Coincidence? To each his own, as we all look at different angles when making a pick. I hope that I don't sound like a know-it-all ass. I am just trying to do research, pick a bunch of games, grind out a small profit, and share some information that might help some others. I feel really bad when I post a game that loses.

 

That's a lot of rambling. I hope that made some sense.

 

 

Very accurate portrail of general wagering. Keep it coming, Orange County California loves ya Philly, your intentions are good. THANK YOU AND GOODNIGHT

[jmueller44 0]

If the line moves, then, fine, makes sense. If the line doesn't budge, or moves against the action, I get suspicious. Are the books trying to attract more action on a team they don't think will cover? Yes, sometimes the books pick their spots, and want lopsided action in a game.

 

That FULL post is the exact things that get me thinking. I really like to see what makes other "gamblers'" clocks tick. That was GREAT.

In regards to what I have copied above....

This is really the part that intriges me when it comes to betting.

Why are books not moving the line when one side is SO HEAVY FAVORED?

There has to be a reason.

Obviously that reason is different in EVERY GAME.

I have only bet on a hand full of NCAA Football games in my day, so what pertains only to that really does not interest me much, honestly.

For example in the NFL this week, there are 4 games with 90%+ on one side of the line.

BAL, CHI, ATL, and CAR....

BAL (95%) line has not moved since the first hour it was open

CHI (92%) just recently moved -0.5

ATL (91%) line has not moved

CAR (97%) line has not moved

 

This is what surprises me A LOT!!!

Any thoughts on WHY these lines have not moved AT ALL?

 

Does the book think they are right and will clean up - ie: Trap Game

Are they just over confident?

Do they know something that we (the public) does NOT?

 

THOUGHTS?

[phillybear 364]

I almost forgot, looking at percentages is important when you are line shopping. If one team is getting lopsided action, you can sometimes anticipate a line move. And this way you can lock in a good line, or wait for a better one. This works more often than not, but I get burned at times too.

 

I use sportsinsights.com for percentages. You can register for their free service, which is what I did, several years ago.

[phillybear 364]

That FULL post is the exact things that get me thinking. I really like to see what makes other "gamblers'" clocks tick. That was GREAT.

In regards to what I have copied above....

This is really the part that intriges me when it comes to betting.

Why are books not moving the line when one side is SO HEAVY FAVORED?

There has to be a reason.

Obviously that reason is different in EVERY GAME.

I have only bet on a hand full of NCAA Football games in my day, so what pertains only to that really does not interest me much, honestly.

For example in the NFL this week, there are 4 games with 90%+ on one side of the line.

BAL, CHI, ATL, and CAR....

BAL (95%) line has not moved since the first hour it was open

CHI (92%) just recently moved -0.5

ATL (91%) line has not moved

CAR (97%) line has not moved

 

This is what surprises me A LOT!!!

Any thoughts on WHY these lines have not moved AT ALL?

 

Does the book think they are right and will clean up - ie: Trap Game

Are they just over confident?

Do they know something that we (the public) does NOT?

 

THOUGHTS?

 

Right now, I am seeing

 

Baltimore 95%

Chicago 88%

Atlanta 81%

Carolina 85%

 

Favorites have been hitting around 60% for while now. The thing is, the books might try to set traps in the NFL. But the past 2 and a half years, they simply haven't been working. I think I am about break even in the NFL in that time, which is much better than it should be, since I bet so many underdogs. So I have been somewhat lucky to ride out the bloodbath.

 

At one point, double digit dogs in the NFL were money. They almost always covered. Last year, for a long stretch of games, double digit favorites covered at 85+%. Unbelievable turn of events.

 

Baltimore, Chicago have covered and dominated teams in their first two games. They will be public darlings over the next few weeks, and probably the rest of the year. Atlanta is also 2-0 SU and ATS, and if generating public attention. And everyone thinks Carolina is in a must win, as they were expected to represent the NFC in the Superbowl, and Steve Smith might play. I think the percentages will drop a bit before Sunday morning, and the lines may very well move. It's still too early in the week.

 

Honestly, I don't look at the NFL until Sunday morning, as everyone is pretty much familiar with all the teams in the NFL. College takes up most of my week, digging for information and looking over stats from obscure games. Which makes the internet a great invention.

 

I have started to make smaller plays in the NFL, not expecting to do much more than break even most weeks, because underdogs just aren't covering anymore. And I just can't change my stubborn thinking to taking favorites all that frequently. Eventually the linesmakers have to compensate and make the lines enormous, and make it tougher for favorites to cover.

 

** Bottom line: go with your gut, don't overanalyze, don't bet more than you can afford to lose, and have fun with this hobby.

[art schlichter's bookie 0]

YTD 14-12-2

 

My Sat card so far

 

Hawaii +14.5

LV-14

UTEP -9.5

UNDER BAMA 37.5

Mich St +2.5

Bucks -16.5

 

Leaning on

Florida State -30, Kent +7, Navy -4.5, Washington +3 and Buffalo +42

[phillybear 364]

(Reposting, post padding, etc.)

 

Overall College YTD: 52-42-1; +22.52 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 19-9; +24.57 units

 

CFL 13-6; +11.85 units

 

Friday

 

(8:00 EST) Nevada (-6.5) for 3 units WINNER

Nevada (-1.5) 2nd H @-115 for 2 units LOSER

(9:00 EST) Edmonton (-12) for 2 units LOSER

Edmonton (-7) @-105 for 3 units LOSER

 

So far this year, I am 2-0 ATS going with Nevada, including a 3 unit winner last week, and 1-1 ATS fading Northwestern, including winning with Eastern Michigan last week. Bottom line, Northwestern is not good.

 

Key trends:

Nevada is 19-8 ATS at home last 27

Nevada is 11-2 ATS at home last 13

 

Let's start with Northwestern. They won their first game this year, playing with emotion for the memory of their deceased coach, and won over a rebuilding Miami OH team 21-3. They then went out and lost to Div 1-AA New Hampshire at home!!!! and held on to beat East Mich 14-6 as a double digit favorite. Their defense has been OK against very subpar offenses, giving up 4.8 yards per play vs teams that would average 5.8 yards per play. But their offense is in shambles, the strength of their team over the last number of years, averaging 4.5 ypp against teams that would give up 5.1 ypp. Basically, Northwestern hasn't played anyone decent yet, are are kind of lucky to be 2-1. They are rotating QBs, hoping to find a hot hand.

 

Meanwhile, Nevada started their season at Fresno St, and covered a generous spread, hanging tough throughout the game in an obvious revenge situation at Fresno, 28-19. They played Fresno St nearly even in total yards. They lost at Arizona St 52-21, but lost the TO battle 4-2. They got shredded by the Arizona St passing game, by a tune of 347 yards. They finally returned home vs Colorado St, and beat them up 28-10, outgaining them 381 to 177. Total domination against a team on their level. Let's face it, Fresno St and Arizona St are better teams than Nevada. But Northwestern is among the dregs of the Big 10 this year. Nevada is averaging 5.2 ypp vs teams that allow 4.5, and let's face it, they have played tougher teams than Northwestern. I cannot see Nevada having trouble moving the ball on the lately perenially weak Northwestern defense. And with so many skill position question marks on the Northwestern side of the ball, I can't see them back dooring this game on what has been a very strong home field for the Nevada "Pistol" offense. Nevada last week, veteran QB Rowe went 19-22, with 65 yards rushing. Nevada wins by double digits. This is as much a play on Nevada as much as a play against a suck ass Northwestern team. Northwestern has passed for 106, 173, 110 in all their games so far, and the 173 was against a Div 1-AA opponent. How the hell do they expect to move the ball against Nevada?

 

Lay the lumber.

 

Edmonton has a turnaround revenge game from an embarrasing loss at Hamilton last week. Hamilton actually winning a game was a blind squirrel finding an acorn, as they are the worst team in the CFL. But I had Hamilton last week, so I'm happy they won. Edmonton let down after a huge comeback victory in a must win the prior week over Calgary. Refocused Eskimos tonight. Edmonton can't afford to lose this game, with a big matchup with Saskatchewan, ahead of them in the standings, looming. Hamilton 1-6 SU on the road. Another must win for Edmonton. Lay the heavy lumber.

 

Good luck to all.

[EAwer 1]

phily i love ur posts! i love reading about that stuff u call "rambling"...I am only 18 now and have been betting on football since i was 12 or 13...always a small loser but never more than i could afford...now i actually win sometimes from looking at your picks and also using your strategy of handicapping. so thanks sir

[Diesel07 0]

Nevada -7

 

These are two teams heading in opposite directions. Northwestern is 2-1 and Nevada is 1-2. Nevada, the team from the smaller non-bcs conference with the losing record is a touchdown favorite. Nevada has played a tough schedule losing at Fresno State and losing at Arizona State. 2 pretty respectable teams. Nevada had their home opener last week against Colorado State and put a whoopin on them. The Nevada defense only gave up 3 points to the Colorado State offense. CSU's lone touchdown came on a blocked punt. Nevada held Colorado State to 4 of 14 on 3rd downs. Nevada has a future NFL quarterback on their team in Senior and 3rd year starter Jeff Rowe. He got his mojo back last week passing 210 yards completing 19 of 21 passes!! The Nevada running game has also been solid this year averaging 158 yards rushing per game. Last year Northwestern had one the top ranked passing attacks in the country and one of the highest scoring offenses. Not this year. They have a 2 headed monster at quarterback and both guys are redshirt freshman and neither are very good at passing the ball. Northwestern is having to depend on the run this year. They have run the ball almost 70% of the time. Nevadas defense only allowed 64 yards rushing last week against Colorado State. Northwestern is averaging 130 yards passing per game and 178 yards on the ground. Last week, while favored by 17 points, Northwestern sneaked out a win at home against mighty Eastern Michigan 14-6. Northwestern also got worked against Div 2 New hampshire 34-17. Northwestern did win their opener during an emotional game at Miami(oh) and im still not quite sure how they pulled that one off. Nevada will be the best team that Northwestern has faced all year. Northwestern will be the weakest team that Nevada has faced. Last week Nevada looked more like the 2005 version of the wolfpack team and the team that everyone was expecting showed back up. With Northwestern having to rely on the run and having mobile qb's Nevada will stack the box and have a spy on the northwestern qb all night long. Nevada will dare northwestern to throw the ball. Northwestern doesnt have that option, Nevada is too balanced. I believe this line is off by 7 points. The line opened at -7 and went quickly to 7.5 Now its back down to 6.5 ? Wish I could have seen that coming because I bought the hook when it was 7.5 down to 7 for -118. Anyway, this one could get ugly. Im on Nevada!

 

[jmueller44 0]

PhillyBear:

I'm going with it .... NEVADA -6.5 (-115) for 1.5 units

(bought 0.5 pt)

 

Lose and it's no big deal, win, and it means I have extra to throw on NFL & MLB games that I do the research on.

 

I think the best thing I have read on here all along is what you said .....

 

** don't bet more than you can afford to lose, and have FUN with this HOBBY.

[EyeOfDaTiga 0]

PhillyBear, I enjoyed your view on the way gambling really works. I have always wondered about fixed games and point shaving and officials controlling games. I consider myself pretty good at picking games b/c I do my homework when it comes to putting money on games. Right now im 27 FOR 42 = .64% and up a good bit of money this season. I respect your opinion b/c a friend of mine told me you give good advice. I actually disregard most advice b/c I am not betting games to turn a big profit, I'm betting b/c its a hobby and it intrest me and I enjoy watching the lines move and the action on each team. I'd rather make my own picks and shoulder the responsability of my wins and losses.

 

That being said do you think some of the recent Nationally Televised games may have possibly been fixed. AU/LSU tieing the spread when everytime LSU was gaining momentum, making a big play, or working themselves into scoring position or Oregon coming back in the last 2 minutes when there was alot of value to take OU on the money line?

 

 

By the way here are my picks this week, they actually contradict everything you are betting on. Sorry I guess its just a difference of opinion, but thats what I'm rolling with tommorow.

 

1. Notre Dame -3 @ Mich St. 7pm--2nd guessing b/c of weather.

2. USC -22.5 @ Arizona 7pm

3. West Vir -22 @ East Carolina 3:30pm

4. BC -7 @ NC State 11am

5. Texas AM -24 vs La Tech 6pm

6. UCLA -3 @ Washington 6pm

7. South Carolina -30 vs FAU 6pm

8. Florida St -30 vs Rice 2:30pm

9. Louisville -14 @ K State 1pm

10. Michigan -13.5 vs Wisconsin 11am--2nd guessing b/c of weather.

11. Minnesota -2.5 @ Purdue 11am--2nd guessing b/c of weather.

 

 

P.S. what the hell is a unit convert to?

[jmueller44 0]

P.S. what the hell is a unit convert to?

In my opinion it depends on what your standard bet is.

 

If you usually lay $10, then that is a unit.

If you usually lay $50, then that is a unit.

If your standard is $100, that that is a unit.

 

I personally am not a huge money guy, so for me 1 unit = $10

[IAMWood 6]

P.S. what the hell is a unit convert to?

 

Whatever your unit bet is. For some it is $100, others $1000, maybe $5. For me it is $10. I am cheap. I am up 11.7 units this year, I lurk these posts often. Philly is good, Hurrican is on fire. I should have listened to them some more and I should have posted my picks some but I don't want to jinx anything. To me betting is about feel. I go against these guys some, cuz when it comes down to it, it is all you.

[phillybear 364]

PhillyBear, I enjoyed your view on the way gambling really works. I have always wondered about fixed games and point shaving and officials controlling games. I consider myself pretty good at picking games b/c I do my homework when it comes to putting money on games. Right now im 27 FOR 42 = .64% and up a good bit of money this season. I respect your opinion b/c a friend of mine told me you give good advice. I actually disregard most advice b/c I am not betting games to turn a big profit, I'm betting b/c its a hobby and it intrest me and I enjoy watching the lines move and the action on each team. I'd rather make my own picks and shoulder the responsability of my wins and losses.

 

That being said do you think some of the recent Nationally Televised games may have possibly been fixed. AU/LSU tieing the spread when everytime LSU was gaining momentum, making a big play, or working themselves into scoring position or Oregon coming back in the last 2 minutes when there was alot of value to take OU on the money line?

 

Makes you wonder, doesn't it? College kids are broke. College officials are broke. And most kids will never make money from playing because it's hard to make it to the NFL. Why is it hard to imagine that a little money can't change hands. We are starting to see more and more stories about kids accepting cars, clothes, cell phones, etc. illegally. Guess what? Money under the table is much harder to trace than a car. I'm not saying all games are fixed, but some of them certainly look suspicious. I've been on the winning and losing sides of those games, and make mental notes to try to not repeat that same kind of wagering mistake in similar situation in the future.

 

Basically, all I am saying is for everyone to keep their eyes open. Weird things happen. Hell, coaches know what the spreads are, as they are trying to cover for the alumni. Look at Ohio St last week. Blatantly trying to cover.

 

 

In my opinion it depends on what your standard bet is.

 

If you usually lay $10, then that is a unit.

If you usually lay $50, then that is a unit.

If your standard is $100, that that is a unit.

 

I personally am not a huge money guy, so for me 1 unit = $10

 

Yeah, I like the anonymous feel of the "unit". It's more important picking winners than worrying about how much everyone is betting.

 

Last year, I eventually admitted that a college football regular season 1 unit for me = 100 bucks. Makes Saturdays interesting, to say the least.

[dpollaro 0]

Philly, thanks for the insights...like reading your posts as well as Hurricane's

 

Here are my college picks

 

YTD (7-4)

Reverse Bets (0-1)

 

 

nevada -7 (2 units)

 

michigan -14

louisville -13.5

Alabama (+2)

West Virginia -21 (2 units)

 

Reverse Bet - 1 unit

Ohio ST -17

USC -21

 

Reverse Bet - 1 unit

clemson - 16

iowa -21

 

I picked a lot of favorites this week coincidentally....these are the games that caught my eye.

 

Good luck to all

[phillybear 364]

Hurricane is on fire.

 

After shooting the breeze with everyone today, I was wondering where HD was hiding. Yep, he has had a fantastic start to this year.

[EyeOfDaTiga 0]

In my opinion it depends on what your standard bet is.

 

If you usually lay $10, then that is a unit.

If you usually lay $50, then that is a unit.

If your standard is $100, that that is a unit.

 

I personally am not a huge money guy, so for me 1 unit = $10

 

 

Alright I get it, any particular reason why people just don't say i'm laying 55$ on 2 teams or 99$ on a straight bet?

 

TO: PhillyBear

 

I think some teams try to cover b/c of the simple fact that they have to win impressivley now to make their case for a BCS bid. Officials have alot more to do with fixing games than most people think, as evident last week. Players aren't paid as much to fix games but more just to attend certain universities, but everyone knows that.

 

One incident I will never forget. 5 years ago Toledo was a 6.5 pt favorite vs someone and they were the second team in my final parlay for the night which I had a good bit of money on and the little kicker trots out there after Toledo scores a TD with 5 or 6 seconds left to cover the 6.5(They were up 6 on the TD). The announcers even say the games over and the XP is just a formaility for people in Vegas and that the kid is a Senior who has never missed an XP. What do you know he misses it and everyone losses but the bookie! That type of thing makes you think!

[chiz3 1]

Quite scary, we're all on Nevada! Good Luck boys!

[GiantsRule 0]

Do I even need to post my YTD record in college? Didn’t think so but I can tell you I cashed out a grand this week from my Bodog account. Big thanks to Philly for calling Jacksonville on MNF. I couldn’t get online to post (stupid Direcway internet) but cashed in on Philly’s pick.

 

Let us talk college!

 

My action:

 

Nevada -7 over Northwestern

*Nevada has covered every game and they just aren’t getting enough respect with a good quarterback and a great coach. Northwestern is 6-0 as a touchdown or more dogs but that was under the Coach Walker. The smart play is Nevada Reno.

 

Michigan -14 over Wisconsin

*I love this game, so Philly will be betting with the Badgers. #6 in the nation and the way they put it to the Irish I think they have found that “it” to roll all the way to the showdown with Ohio State.

 

Louisville -14 over KSU

*I think this line is a bargain due to the Cards losing Brohm and Bush. The fact is the rest of this Louisville team is loaded and KSU is 3-0 beating Illinois State, Florida Atlantic and Marshall all not in the same class as Louisville.

 

Navy -4 over Tulsa

*Tulsa beat 2 really bad teams and got beat by like 30 points by BYU. Navy 3-0 should continue to run the ball and play well. Solid team that doesn’t make too many mistakes.

 

West Virginia -21 over East Carolina

*I don’t care if this line was 100 I would bet on WV as they are my #3 ranked team in the country. They can beat up anyone they want to!

 

Iowa -21 over Illinois

*Anyone see the pathetic showing the Illini had against Rutgers? Drew Tate and Iowa should deliver a 44-10 like effort!

 

Notre Dame -3.5 over Michigan State

*I know all about the past 8/10 as mentioned in this game. I know about the “myth” of the let down in college football. Don’t care! The Irish got beat by a better Michigan team and they will bounce back and cover this line early and won’t look back.

 

Hawaii +15.5 over Boise State

*This one is all on you Philly and you haven’t even posted this yet. I love, no I LOVE Boise State. But I am totally taking Philly’s pretty little Rainbows! Gay~~~

 

I will be looking to add a couple first half lines on Saturday morning. (Going to watch for the WV, Auburn, Florida, USC, Michigan 1st half lines).

 

Nevada -7

Michigan -14

Louisville -14

Navy -4

West Virginia -21

Iowa -21

Notre Dame -3.5

Hawaii +15.5

 

Have to roll the dice with Ditka again. Despite finding a way to make only a little money despite running the table for the early games (still haven't figured that one out yet), I have to remain with the hot hand. I am a little concerned that Philly's picks fade a few of these so I'll just have to root for Philly to lose those few (believe me, he plays more than enough to make up the difference!)

 

However, even a fantastic capper like Ditka can have his streak pulled from under him so I have to go to an old faithful to make sure I'm not completely tapped out: The reverse parlay. Basically, I shave a few dollars off each of the individual bets and put it on a parlay of the opposite selections (comes out to 1/5 unit on 24:1 odds). If he happens to go 0-for, I get most of my money back. Even a 2-3 day wouldn't be the end of the world. Only thing that could kill me is 1-4, which is more likely than either a clean sweep or an oh-for.

 

Nevada -6.5 (note: This is a separate play for Friday night - win or lose)

 

Saturday (5 units each):

Notre Dame -2.5

Navy -4 (-120)

Hawaii +14.5 (-115)

Michigan -13.5 (-105)

Louisville -14 (-105)

 

Reverse parlay for 1/5 unit:

Mich St. +2.5

Tulsa +4.5

Boise State -14

Wisconsin +13.5

Kansas State +14

 

Good luck to all. Happy New Year to my fellow Jewish gambling bros. (if any!)

[packakegger 2]

Always appreciate your insight Philly, no BS and straight to the point.

 

I typically use betting forums but always come here to check out your thoughts.

 

Keep em comin

[phillybear 364]

For anyone brave enough to do the CFL game...

 

Centralized link to all CFL radio Good to bookmark.

 

Direct link to radio station carrying game.

[Tom22406 0]

YTD 15-8 +7.35 units

 

Going with Nevada -7 tonight for 1 unit.

 

If I were capping this game I would have Nevada favored by at least 10 and I think only giving 7 is a gift from the books.Nevada is the stronger team on both sides of the ball and should roll NW by at least 13.

 

Nevada has a huge home field advantage and will look to lay it to the Big 10.

 

 

Prediction

Nevada 30

NW 13

 

GL All

[Diesel07 0]

Lets go Nevada

[phillybear 364]

Terrible start by Nevada, as NW is up 7-0 off the first drive of the game. Not surprising, as Nevada fell behing against Fresno St and Arizona St 14-0 in their first two games. Just have to battle back and take a half time lead. Force that freshman NW Qb to throw.

 

Dammit. Nevada keeps taking stupid penalties. Fock. Was this a trap? Fock.

[phillybear 364]

Nice. INT, then Nevada moves right down the field to tie it up 7-7. That's the offense I expected.

 

Dam. I'm drinking, and threatening to turn this thread into my blog/stream of consciousness. Until I passout, anyway.

 

[phillybear 364]

Northwestern goes TO, TO, TO. No more trick plays. Punch it in here, Nevada.

 

TD Nevada!!!!!!!!!

 

17-7. 1st quarter.