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the_whipping_boy

Wk 8 a success...Wk 9 not sure though

Who do I sit?  

26 members have voted

  1. 1. Which QB do I sit?

    • P. Rivers @ Cle
      17
    • Mi. Vick @ Det
      6
    • T. Brady vs. Ind
      3
  2. 2. Which RB do I sit?

    • M. Jones-Drew vs. Ten
      17
    • J. Jones @ Was
      9
  3. 3. Which DEF do I sit?

    • Atlanta @ Det
      18
    • Jacksonville vs. Ten
      8


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Additionally I have a dilemma on which two WRs to sit:

 

A. Johnson @ NYG

B. Berrian vs. Mia

T. Houshmandzadeh @ Bal

H. Ward vs. Den

 

And also which TE to sit:

 

K. Winslow vs. SD

M. Colston @ TB

 

Winslow seems like a no-brainer to sit, but I am open to any advice to the contrary.

 

Any advice or analysis is very welcome.

 

Thanks for your assistance.

 

:pointstosky:

 

P.S. All of you who told me to sit Jones-Drew and play Julius Jones were right....I should have listened...It didn't really matter though Tomlinson, Vick, Colston, and Andre Johnson carried me. Thanks for the advice though it was right on target.

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sit Berrian and Housh, sit winslow, sit Rivers (San Diego should run, run, run) Sit Atlanta D, Detroit is horrible on D but decent on offense, and Jones-Drew splitting with Taylor.

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After Brady's performance tonight he is looking like a more viable option. I don't know about Indy's run D or pass D for that matter, but couldn't that game just become a QB shootout?

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I voted for Vick, JJ, and Jacksonville.

I would sit Houshy and Berrian

Colston is not a TE, so definatly start him at that position EVERY week and pi$$ the rest of your league off as I do EVERY week!!!!!

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You keep bumping this, dude - how much help do you really need? You've already gotten more answers than a lot of people do to their questions. *shrug* Oh well, whatever; I'm bored at work, might as well give my takes.

 

For the QBs, sit Rivers. Cleveland gives up a ton of yards on the ground, and their offense is almost sure to get stuffed by the Chargers. Plus, with LT looking once again like, arguably, the best in the game plus Turner a very servicable back-up Schottenheimer will most likely roll with Martyball. No reason to throw 25+ times (which is what Rivers needs to get good yardage totals - SD's offense doesn't go deep all that much) if you can run the ball 30+ times and average 5 YPC, which they probably will. Look for him to have a game similar to the game he just had against St. Louis - very efficient, but not a lot of yards and probably only 1 TD through the air (he might get other scores on short tosses, but they'll probably just pound the ball in). Meanwhile, ride Vick's hot hand against a very poor Detroit defense, and the same goes for Brady. Before Monday I might have actually said to start Rivers, because Cleveland's defense just sucks in general while Indy's D is okay against the pass and AWFUL against the run... But Manning looks like he'll be putting points on the board against just about anybody, and the Pats will probably have to ask Brady to throw at least some to keep up.

 

For who to sit at RB, that could be a bit tough. I'd say sit Julius Jones if you think you need *big* points out of your RB or you're going to lose... If you just need a solid score, though, Jones'll probably work okay and he's a bit safer. Barber has 6 rushing TDs on the season to Jones's 3, and I don't think that's going to change. Jones-Drew gets most of the goal-line carries in Jacksonville's offense, but gets much fewer carries than J. Jones overall (well, usually - if Taylor goes down again Jones-Drew'll start toting the rock 25-30 times a game, but I'll bet he gets hurt himself if he has to do that more than a game or two). J. Jones probably will get 100-120 yds rushing, with a reasonable shot at a score. Jones-Drew, though, has a better chance for at least one TD, and is far more likely in my opinion to get a multi-TD day (plus, with Romo looking solid and the T.O. experience still going, I think many of Dallas's goal line plays will be in the air).

 

I'd sit Atlanta, actually. Jacksonville looks revived after downing the Eagles, plus Tennessee has a better running game than passing game, and Jax is weaker against the pass than the rush. Furthermore, the Jaguars look fully willing to run the ball 40+ even in a close game against a good offense, like they did with Philly. That means shorter games w/fewer plays, and lower scores. They don't get a ton of takeaways, but they're a safer play, I think. The Falcons will be going up against Detroit, who can get snagged for turnovers... But Kitna-to-Williams plus Kevin Jones scares me.

 

Ward is a definite sit. So is Winslow. As for which WR out of the other 3, I'd sit Berrian. Baltimore actually gives up more yards through the air than Miami does, and with Jones having a couple straight solid weeks Chicago will probably let him get his. Berrian might get a long score, but if he doesn't Housh is more likely to have a better overall game (also, if you're PPR, I'd say definitely go Housh - he's averaging over 7 catches a game, and Berrian has less than 4). Henry might cut into TJ's work, but his insertion into the lineup opens up the field more overall.

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^^ Best and most thorough advice I received all day. And it really makes sense. You have me convinced to:

 

start Brady and Vick and sit Rivers

 

I think I may need a big day so I will:

 

start Jones-Drew and sit Julius Jones

 

Definitely I will:

 

start Colston and sit Winslow

 

start Jac D and sit Atl D

 

sit Ward

 

I additionally though have a thought about out of three: Berrian, Andre Johnson, and Housh

 

I did a little calculation based on the scoring system the league I participate employs (PPR, 1 pt. per 20 yards, 3 point bonus at 100 or more yards, and of course rec. TD = 6 pts.) I checked to see out of the three opponents Miami, NY Giants, and Baltimore who gave up the most points aggregate over their 7 games played to top points scoring WR for each game.

 

NY Giants came in first only allowing an average of 11.71 pts. per game to the top scoring WR for each game -- games of note are a 16 pt. game to TO, 17 pts. game to Marvin Harrison, and 21 pts. performance to Darell Jackson. They did hold Santana Moss to a 4 pts. game and Joey Galloway to 5 pts.

 

Baltimore was second, allowing an average of 14.57 points per game. Games of note are Marques Colston (and he is a WR, despite what Yahoo tells ya) / 29 pts., Steve Smith / 26pts., and Braylon Edwards / 19 pts.

 

Miami came in last allowing 16.29 ppg. They gave up games to Lavernues Coles / 25 pts., Andre Johnson (my man) / 23 pts., and Donald Driver / 20 pts. In fact Miami gave over 10 points to all their top scoring WRs except one Drew Bennett, who had a 9 point performance.

 

So my dilemma is,

 

Andre Johnson vs. Bernard Berrian -- I just think Housh is a lock to play

 

Do I use Andre Johnson against a seemingly tough NYG defense and secondary? I mean he has been getting the yardage/receptions even if it is in garbage time when they are behind and also has been good for many scores.......

 

OR

 

Do I use Bernard Berrian? Who has seemed to cool off and despite favorable matchups against Arizona and SF really didn't go off like I expected he would. Is he prime for a big day against Miami. And again a Miami defense that I think is the weakest of the three in keeping WRs from having big days. But will Berrian breakout and have a Driver, Coles, or Johnson type day.

 

I need to really make a good decision on the WRs and maximize my point production here because I think it will make a big difference in my matchup against my opponent.

 

Anyone that wants to make any suggestions to this dilemma please feel free to do so.

 

Right now tentatively this is my lineup

 

QB Michael Vick @ Det.

QB Tom Brady vs. Ind.

WR Andre Johnson @ NYG

WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh @ Bal

RB LaDainian Tomlinson @ Cle

RB Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Ten

TE Marques Colston @ TB

K Nate Kaeding @ Cle

D Jacksonville vs. Ten

 

BN Philip Rivers @ Cle

BN Hines Ward vs. Den

BN Bernard Berrian vs. Mia

BN Julius Jones @ Was

BN Kellen Winslow vs. SD

BN Atlanta Defense @ Det

 

 

P.S. My current record is 3-5-0 with only 5 games remaining. I have a lot of ground to make up. Although everyone gets into the playoffs (6 teams), position is everything.

 

 

Thanx for any help or advice anyone can dispense.

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Glad I could help (and I hope I didn't just screw you over in your league =p). As for Johnson vs. Berrian -

 

Keep in mind that the NYG are very beatable through the air, and to date have shown a very solid run defense (allowing 210+ ypg through the air, and less than 100 ypg on the ground). A big problem is the QB situation in Houston, which I didn't figure into my comment above. There's really two scenarios here. One is that Carr comes out firing trying to protect his job and connects on a couple of big plays, in which case Johnson is going to have a huge game (as Carr's best target, he'll probably get a handful of balls thrown his way early). Alternatively, though, Carr could come out and press, making mistakes. In that case, Rosenfels will come back in, which means problems for Johnson. For one, Lundy will probably get a lot of carries if the Texans aren't way behind, as he's looked *very* good so far. Also, Rosenfels seems to really like looking towards TE Daniels, as opposed to going deep to Johnson, which is Carr's favorite play.

 

Really, it again comes down to how big of a game you think you need. I believe Johnson has the potential for a bigger game - the Giants are a team that can be scored upon heavily through the air, and Johnson leads the league in passing yards and is towards the top in receptions/targets (PPR suggests that even w/o a touchdown he should still put up big numbers). But Berrian's probably a better bet to get a long score or two, if Carr has issues again. I still think that Johnson is a must-start at the moment - over the past five games, he's gotten 11, 9, 9, 8, and 9 receptions (and is averaging over 95 ypg even with his "poor" week 2 performance of 4 rec. for 56 yds and a TD). Berrian's been brilliant, but he has the same number of TDs with 200 fewer receiving yards and, in a PPR league this is key, THIRTY fewer receptions (plus, you're assuming Berrian is even Chicago's #1 WR, when Muhammad actually has more catches on the season).

 

Neither team has faced particularly stiff competition, but I just have a hard time seeing Miami putting a lot of points up on Chi-town's D and forcing them to throw. Meanwhile, you have to expect the Giants (and Eli) will get theirs, suggesting Houston will be playing catch-up all game.

 

Granted, as will all things in fantasy football, I could be way off the mark. I just feel like the history of the respective teams, players, and their opponents, suggests Johnson to be the better play.

 

Good luck on Sun/Mon with whatever you decide.

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