BYE week draft strategy

[Keyser Sose 0]

Bye weeks are not sexy, but they have been a big factor on my team and I'm rethinking my strategy for next year.

 

My old strategy: Pick up key position players with different bye weeks so I don't get stuck in one week with multiple byes.

 

New strategy: Attempt to get all key players into one strategic bye week. The goal is to take one big loss in that one week, but be full strength all other weeks.

 

Right now I feel like I'm slowly bleeding by having one key player out each week.

 

Of course it will be difficult to get all the guys you want in one bye week, but let's say you have compararble players on the board to choose from- go with the one that matches the by week of your #1 skill player.

 

Has anyone read this far, and if so, what do you think?

[Watchdog 0]

Bye weeks are not sexy, but they have been a big factor on my team and I'm rethinking my strategy for next year.

 

My old strategy: Pick up key position players with different bye weeks so I don't get stuck in one week with multiple byes.

 

New strategy: Attempt to get all key players into one strategic bye week. The goal is to take one big loss in that one week, but be full strength all other weeks.

 

Right now I feel like I'm slowly bleeding by having one key player out each week.

 

Of course it will be difficult to get all the guys you want in one bye week, but let's say you have compararble players on the board to choose from- go with the one that matches the by week of your #1 skill player.

 

Has anyone read this far, and if so, what do you think?

 

 

I think the more teams in your league, the worse idea this is. (It will be harder to get adequate by replacements in bigger leagues.) OTOH, I think it will be be rare that you'll get a chance to put this idea into practice. First it would take comparable players, as you say. Then that player would have to be on one of the 3-5 other teams that happen to have a bye that week. I don't think it's something to overly concern yourself with when you're drafting.

 

If you happen to be playing teams that are for the most part at full strength when they face you, it can be a little frustrating. But these things can even out over time - next year might be the year you're the one catching other teams on vulnerable weeks.

[madd futher mucker 36]

When i started playing fantasy, I drafted the same way you did. Now I don't even care to look at their bye week pre-draft, and my teams have always performed well since I changed my drafting method.

 

The first year I played fantasy, I bought and read magazines, now I'm not even tempted to buy 'em. Instead I USE THIS FORUM to guide me thru the pre-season as well as watch some games. That's how I decide which players I want, not what some out of date 'expert' says.

 

This strategy pays off. I drafted Jennings in two leagues and, although i didn't draft him, I had Colston on my 'short' list and picked him up prior to the first game in one league. I almost started him at TE the first game - I was sure he'd beaten out Henderson as #2 WR.

 

The best draft method for me is to target certain players I want because I'M pretty confident they will perform at or above expectations. I take mostly safe - not sexy - picks. My exception this year was Mike bell in the 5th round of a 12 teamer based on the preseason 'hes got the starting job' hype.

 

I study the ADPs to determine which round to select these guys. The key is that I target the guys first (more than I need to complete my draft) and I slot them second.

 

I pay ABSOLUTELY no attention to where their bye week is. Since I'm aggressive to the free agent list/ waiver wire, and I trade a lot, I seldom have a problem that I can't overcome.

[Sgt_Russia 0]

I'm with MFM. I rarely pay attn at all to bye weeks during the draft as I am agressive on WW/trades/etc. More often than not, you can find adequate or better bye week replacements on the WW early in the season. Even better if you can trade around bye weeks and miss as many as possible...

[cubbie5150 0]

I'm with MFM. I rarely pay attn at all to bye weeks during the draft as I am agressive on WW/trades/etc. More often than not, you can find adequate or better bye week replacements on the WW early in the season. Even better if you can trade around bye weeks and miss as many as possible...

 

Ditto hear.. The only time I pay attention to BYE weks is when selecting my intended backup QB.

[bpork 0]

Bye weeks are not sexy, but they have been a big factor on my team and I'm rethinking my strategy for next year.

 

My old strategy: Pick up key position players with different bye weeks so I don't get stuck in one week with multiple byes.

 

New strategy: Attempt to get all key players into one strategic bye week. The goal is to take one big loss in that one week, but be full strength all other weeks.

 

Right now I feel like I'm slowly bleeding by having one key player out each week.

 

Of course it will be difficult to get all the guys you want in one bye week, but let's say you have compararble players on the board to choose from- go with the one that matches the by week of your #1 skill player.

 

Has anyone read this far, and if so, what do you think?

 

I like the new strategy better than the old strat, but I feel like the key in the draft is to get the solid performers rather than concentrate on byes...but if we assume that all your draft picks will be valued at where you drafted them, you're going to give yourself a better percentage of winning those matchups.

 

Let's say you're an above average fantasy player...for weeks 3-9 (weeks with a bye), your chance of winning each matchup with the old strat would be around 60% to win, 40% to lose. (lots of assumptions/guesses/averaging made with that 60/40 number) 7 games...you're expecting 4.2 wins.

 

if you take a loss once using the new strategy, in 6 games...you'd need to cover that 1 game. To get better that 4.2 wins in that timeframe, you'd have to average a 70% chance to win or greater to cover that one blowout loss.

 

so does your team become that much better during the bye weeks? That's too tedious to work out...either way, focusing on drafting solid players is much more important imo.

[OuttaLuck 0]

Ditto hear.. The only time I pay attention to BYE weks is when selecting my intended backup QB.

 

Very good point. Two guys in my league drafted good starting QBs but then wound up with back-up QBs on the same bye week and have had to make another move to cover their QB bye weeks, not to mention that they basically wasted a draft pick. I generally ignore bye weeks as far as RBs and WRs--Good RBs are too scarce in my league to pass one up simply because of his bye week, and second or third WRs for one week can be found pretty readily through trades or waiver pick-ups (not to mention that every year I wind up dropping players I've drafted due to injuries or lack of production, and I can take any bye week problems into account then as well).

[Trojan35 0]

The only time I was concerned with bye weeks was when they used to happen in weeks 14+.

 

Now, I do not look at bye weeks at all.

[Ray_T 741]

Bye weeks are not sexy, but they have been a big factor on my team and I'm rethinking my strategy for next year.

 

My old strategy: Pick up key position players with different bye weeks so I don't get stuck in one week with multiple byes.

 

New strategy: Attempt to get all key players into one strategic bye week. The goal is to take one big loss in that one week, but be full strength all other weeks.

 

Right now I feel like I'm slowly bleeding by having one key player out each week.

 

Of course it will be difficult to get all the guys you want in one bye week, but let's say you have compararble players on the board to choose from- go with the one that matches the by week of your #1 skill player.

 

Has anyone read this far, and if so, what do you think?

 

This is an interesting theory. and I prefer to screw up only one week due to byes rather than multiple weeks, so I think the idea has merit.

 

here is what I like to do:

 

1) Draft the best player regardless of bye weeks.

2) check out my bye weeks at the end of the draft and identify problem areas.

3) Make trades where and when you can to eliminate problems and/or fill holes in the lineup.

 

In my case, I had a bye Week problem in 3 weeks out of the year at the beginning. come week 4, I started to make a few trades. In some cases, I have a player that I value the same as your player (same position)

 

Your player has played his bye week and your player may have a more favourable late season schedule, so I acquire your player for mine. If I have to throw in an extra player (third or 4th string) then so be it.

 

I have avoided 2 bye week nightmares by some astute trading and my team is undefeated so far. (Knock on Wood) and have some players who are likely to have strong showings in the playoffs.

 

At this point, I am no longer looking to cover bye weeks but to acquire players who have soft schedules for weeks 14, 15, & 16. (the playoffs in our league)

 

so far the strat has worked and I can only hope that my team continues to perform.

[murf74 461]

Only in extreme cases would I pass on a guy I wanted cause of a bye week. My first 3 RBs taken this year ....R. Brown, Portis, KJones.............I didn't care they were all bye week #8. I since traded away RB but still the lesson is I still drafted KJ ignoring the bye week problem.

 

The last 2 years I have had 1 really bad bye week. It is a lot nicer to have one bad week than several mediocre weeks.