*** '07 Player Projections By NFL Team ***

[NAn 39]

To prepare FFTodayers for the upcoming ’07 season, starting 5/14 will post threads listing offensive players by NFL team and invite posters to attach projections to each offensive player.

Posting of just commentary on one or mutliple players, instead of projections is welcomed and encouraged as well.

 

Will post 3 team threads per week (2 during 4th of July week) alphabetically by team city, so will have all 32 NFL teams posted before August 1st.

Through beginning of FF season will hopefully have this thread pinned as an ‘Archives’ thread, so will have opportunity to post replies for any previous team at any time.

 

Player Projections By NFL Team: Archives Thread Link

Cincinnati Bengals: Team/Player Statistical History Link

 

CINCINNATI BENGALS

 

’06 Statistics

 

|---------- PASSING -----------||----- RUSHING -----|  TOTAL 
		  CMP  ATT   YD	YPA   TD INT  ATT   YD	YPA  TD	 YD   
		  326  523  4066   7.77  28  13  435  1629  3.74  14   5695
NFL rank --->  11   16	7	  5	3   9   20   26	25   13	  8
QB
| Name				 |  G | CMP ATT   PCT YARD  Y/A TD IN | RSH YARD TD |
| Carson Palmer		| 16 | 324 520  62.3 4035  7.8 28 13 |  26   37  0 |
RB
| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |
| Rudi Johnson		 | 16 |  341  1309   3.8  12  |   23   124   5.4   0 |
WR
| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |
| Chad Johnson		 | 16 |	6	24   4.0   0  |   87  1369  15.7   7 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh  | 14 |	3	 6   2.0   0  |   90  1081  12.0   9 |
| Chris Henry		  | 13 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   36   605  16.8   9 |
TE
| Name				 |  G |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |
| Reggie Kelly		 | 16 |   21   254  12.1   1 |

Notes:

QB CPalmer: 2nd year removed from major injury

HC MLewis: 5th year

 

Key Questions For '07 Season:

Can CPalmer regain ’05 form?

Is there any debate on who is the team's #1WR?

Will CHenry remain the #3WR? Will he even be eligible to play?

If not CHenry then who? TPerry? AChatman?

Pressure on MLewis to win in 5th season?

[NAn 39]

bump

[Foghorn Leghorn 0]

Palmer's numbers the last two years were pretty similar:

 

2005 3836 yds, 32 TD, 12 Int

2006 4035 yds, 28 TD, 13 Int

 

That being said, here goes:

 

Palmer - 4100 yds, 31 TDs

C. Johnson - 92 rec, 1380 yds, 11 TDs (though it'll be the same hot streak/cold streak path to those numbers)

Houshyamamah - 84 rec, 1100 yds, 10 TDs

Chris Henry + Chatman + T. Perry - 1200 yds, 6 TDs

 

Rudi Johnson - 320 carries, 1300 yds, 10 TDs, 125 yds receiving

[jocstrap 8]

I think the lack of a number 3 Wr is going to hurt this team. They lost Washington and Henry is out the first half. The "x" factor of the #3 is really going to be felt. My defensive scheme would be double the two true wideouts, play man on #3 and TE and let your dline and linebackers win the game for you. On the offensive note. I think the passing attempts will still be there, and even more looks for CJ and Housh. I could see palmers td #'s effected, but I see CJ and Housh's receptions increase. The deep Td pass to the #3 from Palmer is all but erased now until I'm proven wrong.

 

Palmer - - 3400 passing yards 24 touchdowns

CJ - - 111 receptions 1350 receiving yards 10 td's

Housh - - 95 receptions 1200 receicing yards 10 td's

 

Rudi - - 1100 rushing yards 12 td's 0 receiving touchdowns to keep his streak alive of no receiving td's for his career

[listen2me 23 1,964]

I think the lack of a number 3 Wr is going to hurt this team. They lost Washington and Henry is out the first half. The "x" factor of the #3 is really going to be felt. My defensive scheme would be double the two true wideouts, play man on #3 and TE and let your dline and linebackers win the game for you. On the offensive note. I think the passing attempts will still be there, and even more looks for CJ and Housh. I could see palmers td #'s effected, but I see CJ and Housh's receptions increase. The deep Td pass to the #3 from Palmer is all but erased now until I'm proven wrong.

 

Palmer - - 3400 passing yards 24 touchdowns

CJ - - 111 receptions 1350 receiving yards 10 td's

Housh - - 95 receptions 1200 receicing yards 10 td's

 

Rudi - - 1100 rushing yards 12 td's 0 receiving touchdowns to keep his streak alive of no receiving td's for his career

 

I like where you are going with your projections and thoughts, I agree. But Your saying aside from 85 and Housh the team is only going to account for 850 passing yds, 4 TDs, and Idk how many Rec. but not a lot with over 200 going to those 2. I think your little explaination up top is a good start and logical, but the numbers dont match up for the WRs having such a great season and Palmer having such a average season.

 

Id say...

 

Palmer- 3800yds 27 TDs and look for him to run a little more this year.

CJ- 96 rec. 1350yds and 8 TDs

Housh- 87 rec. 1150yds and 8TDs

Rudi- 330 Att. 1320yds and 10TDs

 

Another solid off. year for the Bengals. Everyone should get their stats.

[Ace08 11]

I fully expect Palmer to overtake Manning as the #1 overall FF QB this year...and given the fact he can probably be had a round or two cheaper than Manning makes him the "early QB" to grab this year if you're going to draft one at all early. If I can get Palmer in the 3rd or early 4th i'll grab him, otherwise I'm waiting til at least the 7th or 8th to draft one this year.

 

Rudi is solid and steady...in an ideal world he could be your #2 FF RB but his price tag is solidly placed in the first round. The only reason I say that is because I think Rudi's running style just lends itself to limiting his upside at this stage of his career and also due to the fact that the Bengals D being so bad that Cincy will probably be passing alot more than they are running in an attempt to play "catch up" alot over the course of the season.

 

Obviously both of the wideouts are studs but I think the biggest thing to watch here is the situation with Henry....if he misses alot of time then I think you bump up BOTH 85 and TJ since Palmer will be lest apt to spread the ball and just focus on those 2. If all 3 are healthy then the guy to grab is TJ since his price tag over the years has always been 1 to 2 rounds cheaper than 85 and yet produces on the same level.

[listen2me 23 1,964]

I fully expect Palmer to overtake Manning as the #1 overall FF QB this year...and given the fact he can probably be had a round or two cheaper than Manning makes him the "early QB" to grab this year if you're going to draft one at all early. If I can get Palmer in the 3rd or early 4th i'll grab him, otherwise I'm waiting til at least the 7th or 8th to draft one this year.

 

Rudi is solid and steady...in an ideal world he could be your #2 FF RB but his price tag is solidly placed in the first round. The only reason I say that is because I think Rudi's running style just lends itself to limiting his upside at this stage of his career and also due to the fact that the Bengals D being so bad that Cincy will probably be passing alot more than they are running in an attempt to play "catch up" alot over the course of the season.

 

Obviously both of the wideouts are studs but I think the biggest thing to watch here is the situation with Henry....if he misses alot of time then I think you bump up BOTH 85 and TJ since Palmer will be lest apt to spread the ball and just focus on those 2. If all 3 are healthy then the guy to grab is TJ since his price tag over the years has always been 1 to 2 rounds cheaper than 85 and yet produces on the same level.

 

Why do you "expect" Palmer to have a better year stat wise than Manning.? Manning is the most consistant player ever. He has GREAT QB stats each year. Unless you have a good reason, then I doubt you can expect Palmer to be better than Manning.

 

If anything Manning has gained....Gonzo as 3rd WR, Addai in 2nd year not a rookie anymore.

 

Palmer has lost henry who caught more TDs than CJ last year.

 

So I don't get where you are coming from and if you even have any reasoning to it. Im curious.

[Ace08 11]

My reasoning is that I simply think Carson Palmer is the most gifted QB in the NFL today coupled with the fact that he's on a team with a very bad defense. Is it somewhat of a gut feeling? Hell yeah....but you're kidding yourself if you don't think a good majority of success in fantasy is based on such uncontrollable things as luck, gut feelings, Madden covers, etc etc etc...

 

My thinking is simple, Palmer was less than a year removed from an ACL surgery last season and still put up near 4000 yards and nearly a 2:1 TD to INT ratio. He's still very young and every time I see him play I can't help but think this kid is on the cusp on greatness. I'm not a Bengal fan in any way, shape or form....but the kid has "it". It could be argued that prior to the cheap shot he received in the playoff game against the Steelers he was playing as well as any QB at the time.

 

Manning is consistent no doubt and a great QB....but I just see more upside in Palmer at this point. I also think that at the very least Palmer will match Manning's production and like I said in my other post...you'll be able to get Palmer a full round and in some case 2 full rounds LATER than Manning. That...to me...is value.

[WKTSWAY 0]

Palmer - 4200yds 32 TDs 12 ints

 

Rudi - 1250yds 12 TDs (Mr. Consistency)

 

CJ - 90rec 1350yds 9 TDs

Housh - 85rec 1100 yds 11 TDs

 

Obviously, I'm hoping for better since I have Palmer and Rudi in one of my dynasties.

[listen2me 23 1,964]

My reasoning is that I simply think Carson Palmer is the most gifted QB in the NFL today coupled with the fact that he's on a team with a very bad defense. Is it somewhat of a gut feeling? Hell yeah....but you're kidding yourself if you don't think a good majority of success in fantasy is based on such uncontrollable things as luck, gut feelings, Madden covers, etc etc etc...

 

My thinking is simple, Palmer was less than a year removed from an ACL surgery last season and still put up near 4000 yards and nearly a 2:1 TD to INT ratio. He's still very young and every time I see him play I can't help but think this kid is on the cusp on greatness. I'm not a Bengal fan in any way, shape or form....but the kid has "it". It could be argued that prior to the cheap shot he received in the playoff game against the Steelers he was playing as well as any QB at the time.

 

Manning is consistent no doubt and a great QB....but I just see more upside in Palmer at this point. I also think that at the very least Palmer will match Manning's production and like I said in my other post...you'll be able to get Palmer a full round and in some case 2 full rounds LATER than Manning. That...to me...is value.

 

Manning already puts up the best numbers a QB can basically put up, each and every year. He has many more weapons than Palmer. There is no reason for one to think Mannings stats will drop, so you must be expecting GREAT things out of Palmer. I just dont see where that comes from, he's 3rd WR is out 8 games, a guy who scored many times. Palmer is a great QB, but Manning is the best QB in the league, he prooves it every year.

 

I understand its your gut feeling and that Palmer "could" have better value for where he is taken, but to expect Palmer to out perform Manning this year like you said is your gut feeling and thats it. I was just wondering if you had any reason beyond just your gut feeling.

[T-HO 1]

Whoa are the TE's on cinn? How about history of rec-% of off production-targets, etc. W/henry out,maybe TE position could see more looks(?)

[pimptastic69 0]

Whoa are the TE's on cinn? How about history of rec-% of off production-targets, etc. W/henry out,maybe TE position could see more looks(?)

 

I doubt it. Tight ends don't play a very big role in their offense. Reggie Kelly might get a few more receptions with Tony Stewart gone, but he's still not someone you'd want to start even as a bye week replacement.

 

I like Tab Perry to step right in where Henry left off. He's the same size, not quite as fast, but he won't give up on routes like Henry did. Perry was the kick off returner and 4th WR last year before getting hurt in the 3rd or 4th game of the year.

[Foghorn Leghorn 0]

Whoa are the TE's on cinn? How about history of rec-% of off production-targets, etc. W/henry out,maybe TE position could see more looks(?)

 

I think you'd have to go back to the days of the late Dan Ross to find production from the tight end spot.

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

I fully expect Palmer to overtake Manning as the #1 overall FF QB this year...and given the fact he can probably be had a round or two cheaper than Manning makes him the "early QB" to grab this year if you're going to draft one at all early. If I can get Palmer in the 3rd or early 4th i'll grab him, otherwise I'm waiting til at least the 7th or 8th to draft one this year.

 

Rudi is solid and steady...in an ideal world he could be your #2 FF RB but his price tag is solidly placed in the first round. The only reason I say that is because I think Rudi's running style just lends itself to limiting his upside at this stage of his career and also due to the fact that the Bengals D being so bad that Cincy will probably be passing alot more than they are running in an attempt to play "catch up" alot over the course of the season.

 

Obviously both of the wideouts are studs but I think the biggest thing to watch here is the situation with Henry....if he misses alot of time then I think you bump up BOTH 85 and TJ since Palmer will be lest apt to spread the ball and just focus on those 2. If all 3 are healthy then the guy to grab is TJ since his price tag over the years has always been 1 to 2 rounds cheaper than 85 and yet produces on the same level.

 

Let me ask you this (actually I'm asking everybody). In my situation, I can keep 2 of the following 4 players going into this year (cannot keep 2 of the same positional players): Palmer, Gore, Addai, Colston.

 

If I keep Palmer, I would forfeit a 6th round pick. If I keep any of the others, I would forfeit picks in the 8th and 9th round this year.

 

My plan all along was to keep Gore and Colston, but now I'm thinking Palmer may be worth the price of a 6th round pick. He is more of a guarantee to have a big year than Colston is to duplicate last year's efforts.

 

Don't get me wrong, this is a great problem to have. Do you guys think that Palmer is a top 20 overall pick? If that's the case, then I believe he's worth the pick.

 

Thoughts?