NAn 39 Posted July 19, 2007 To prepare FFTodayers for the upcoming ’07 season, starting 5/14 will post threads listing offensive players by NFL team and invite posters to attach projections to each offensive player. Posting of just commentary on one or mutliple players, instead of projections is welcomed and encouraged as well. Will post 3 team threads per week (2 during 4th of July week) alphabetically by team city, so will have all 32 NFL teams posted before August 1st. Through beginning of FF season will hopefully have this thread pinned as an ‘Archives’ thread, so will have opportunity to post replies for any previous team at any time. Player Projections By NFL Team: Archives Thread Link San Francisco 49ers: Team/Players Statistical History Link Darryl Jackson: Statistical History Link SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS ’06 Statistics |---------- PASSING -----------||----- RUSHING -----| TOTAL CMP ATT YD YPA TD INT ATT YD YPA TD YD 258 445 2890 6.49 16 16 438 2172 4.96 12 5062 NFL rank ---> 29 30 29 21 26 15 19 6 2 20 26 QB | Name | G | CMP ATT PCT YARD Y/A TD IN | RSH YARD TD | | Alex Smith | 16 | 257 442 58.1 2890 6.5 16 16 | 44 147 2 | RB | Name | G | RSH YARD AVG TD | REC YARD AVG TD | | Frank Gore | 16 | 312 1695 5.4 8 | 61 485 8.0 1 | WR | Name | G | RSH YARD AVG TD | REC YARD AVG TD | | Darrell Jackson | 13 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 63 956 15.2 10 | | Arnaz Battle | 16 | 5 25 5.0 0 | 59 686 11.6 3 | TE | Name | G | REC YARD AVG TD | | Vernon Davis | 10 | 20 265 13.2 3 | Notes: HC MNolan: Will be 3rd year QB ASmith: Will be 3rd year WR DJackson: Will be 8th season, 1st with 49ers TE VDavis: Will be 2nd year Key Questions For '07 Season: How will team progress in MNolan’s 3RD year? Will ASmith continue to improve?regress? How will FGore produce without OC NTurner? How will DJackson produce as a 49er? Will VDavis ‘step up’ in 2nd year? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
staypuft29 0 Posted July 20, 2007 Alex Smith 3500 yards, 23 TD, 13 INT Rushing: 200 yards, 1 TD Smith is going into his 3rd year which is typically a breakout year for QB's. He improved immensely last year and he continues to work hard during the offseason to become a better player. Rookie Joe Staley will likely unseat Harris as the starting RT which will give Smith more time to throw. This improved o-line, coupled with the addition of legitimate receiving threats, will result in solid numbers for Smith next year. New OC Hostler was Smith's QB coach last year, so he will not have too much trouble transitioning. Furthermore, the Niners are keeping the same offensive system so for the first time Smith will be going into a season without learning a completely new system. Gore Rushing: 1500 yards, 10 TD Receiving: 400 yards, 1 TD Smith's improvement will result in slightly less carries for Gore. Gore will still have a solid season, but Nolan will try to keep him fresh and will thus limit his carries to prevent him from being overworked like Larry Johnson was last year. DJax Receiving: 1000 yards, 8 TD (oops... accidentally typed 1100 in my original post) Jackson becomes the number one WR in the 49er offense and will put up solid numbers (like he has for much of his career) assuming he stays healthy. Battle Receiving: 600 yards, 4 TD I believe Battle will win out the number 2 receiving spot, but this could also be Lelie if the Niners are looking for a deep threat to complement Jackson. Battle has always been one of Smith's favorite targets, though, and towards the end of last season it was obvious that Smith trusted Battle much more than any of his other receivers (cough, Bryant, cough). Lelie Receiving: 300 yards, 1 TD Lelie is a tough one to project. If he can remember how to play like he did in Denver, he might be the number 2 WR (especially considering the Niners need a deep threat for their Coryell offense). Like I said, though, I personally believe Battle will win that spot and Lelie will be #3. Vernon Davis Receiving: 700 yards, 5 TD Davis looked very solid at the end of the season, and he will carry this momentum into next season. Now that he is fully recovered from his injury he is ready to explode and become one of the top TE's in the league. Defense I expect the defense to be in the middle of the pack next year (13th-17th best in the league). Clements and Lewis will be huge upgrades for the secondary, and Willis should win the starting role at ILB alongside Brandon Moore. This will be a much improved unit from last year, but I wouldn't consider it fantasy starter material yet. However, it definitely has the potential to be a top 10 defense if 1) the new additions gel fairly quickly 2) willis has a solid rookie year, and lawson continues to improve (he showed flashes of brilliance at the end of last year) and 3) everyone stays healthy. The biggest concern is the defensive line, where Bryant Young is getting old and no one else could be considered star material. Aubrayo Franklin will help upgrade the NT position, but he was a 3rd stringer for Baltimore last year so he won't exactly have a pro-bowl season (then again no one expected Walt Harris to be a pro-bowler and he was, so who knows). However, an improved secondary and a young LB group with a lot of star potential could be enough to mask the weaknesses along the D-line. I think it's definitely worth drafting the Niner defense as a backup for fantasy, because it is very possible that they could become a top unit. However, keep in mind that most likely they will not be starter material for fantasy, and they should not be the sole defense that you rely on for the season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MicktheGreat 1 Posted July 20, 2007 Alex Smith 3500 yards, 23 TD, 13 INT Rushing: 200 yards, 1 TDSmith is going into his 3rd year which is typically a breakout year for QB's. He improved immensely last year and he continues to work hard during the offseason to become a better player. Rookie Joe Staley will likely unseat Harris as the starting RT which will give Smith more time to throw. This improved o-line, coupled with the addition of legitimate receiving threats, will result in solid numbers for Smith next year. New OC Hostler was Smith's QB coach last year, so he will not have too much trouble transitioning. Furthermore, the Niners are keeping the same offensive system so for the first time Smith will be going into a season without learning a completely new system. Gore Rushing: 1500 yards, 10 TD Receiving: 400 yards, 1 TD Smith's improvement will result in slightly less carries for Gore. Gore will still have a solid season, but Nolan will try to keep him fresh and will thus limit his carries to prevent him from being overworked like Larry Johnson was last year. DJax Receiving: 1100 yards, 8 TD Jackson becomes the number one WR in the 49er offense and will put up solid numbers (like he has for much of his career) assuming he stays healthy. Battle Receiving: 600 yards, 4 TD I believe Battle will win out the number 2 receiving spot, but this could also be Lelie if the Niners are looking for a deep threat to complement Jackson. Battle has always been one of Smith's favorite targets, though, and towards the end of last season it was obvious that Smith trusted Battle much more than any of his other receivers (cough, Bryant, cough). Lelie Receiving: 300 yards, 1 TD Lelie is a tough one to project. If he can remember how to play like he did in Denver, he might be the number 2 WR (especially considering the Niners need a deep threat for their Coryell offense). Like I said, though, I personally believe Battle will win that spot and Lelie will be #3. Vernon Davis Receiving: 700 yards, 5 TD Davis looked very solid at the end of the season, and he will carry this momentum into next season. Now that he is fully recovered from his injury he is ready to explode and become one of the top TE's in the league. Any thoughts on rookie WR Jason Hill??? With the #2 WR job up-for-grabs, I think Hill could turn into a great value pick late in FF drafts. From what I've read, he's certainly got the hands, speed, and athleticism to be a starter in the NFL. I'd like to hear a SF homer's opinion on this... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
staypuft29 0 Posted July 20, 2007 Any thoughts on rookie WR Jason Hill??? With the #2 WR job up-for-grabs, I think Hill could turn into a great value pick late in FF drafts. From what I've read, he's certainly got the hands, speed, and athleticism to be a starter in the NFL. I'd like to hear a SF homer's opinion on this... I love Jason Hill and I was ecstatic when we drafted him. However, I doubt he will have much impact as a rookie. Very few receivers produce in their rookie years (of course there are exceptions... Fitz, Colston, etc. but this is very rare) and Hill faces some stiff competition. I definitely would not draft him, but he might be worth watching during the season because if he works his way into the starting lineup he might be worth picking up on waiver wires (kinda like Colston last year). Again, though, I seriously doubt he puts up more than a few hundred yards and maybe a touchdown or 2, unless he really catches on quickly and beats out Lelie and Battle. (Of course, this doesn't mean I don't think Hill has the potential to be a star. I just think it will take a couple years for him to develop into a starting receiver). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RicemanX 20 Posted July 20, 2007 THe success of this offense will depend on how much playing time Kwame Harris gets... write that down. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Natural Lights 0 Posted July 21, 2007 Overall I just do not get a great vibe on the SanFrancisco offense. I see a much more balanced attack than last year. I expect Smith to make improvemnets as an NFL quarterback, but I do not see how that will translate into statistics much better than a #2 backup QB Smith 3100 yards 19TD 12 INT Projecting Gore is where this gets interesting. Last years run was simply amazing. He was without question my best pick. A late round auction pick up for 6 dollars. With a more balnced attack I expect his TDs to go up, but his yards to go down. Just do not see as many big 70 yard breakaway runs this year. Plus the frequent shuffling in of Michael Robinson especially in key situations really ticked me off as an owner. He is a wonderful first rounder, but I believe expectations need to be tempered Gore 1500 yards 11 TD 300 2 TDs I do not see anyone from the WR/TE Group being stellar. DJackson likely gets most of the TDs. Davis gets more receptions, and yards. With Battle, Lelie, and other assorted 3rd and 4th receivers gobbling up the rest. I think DJackson will go too high. I see him no better than a #4 backup WR. Davis is a decent grab as a late #1TE, but someone will likely want him more than I do. In Summary I think SanFrancisco will be a better NFL team, but perhaps not any better as a fantasy source. With increased expectations and hype, mainly driven by Gore, players are likely to be overvalued, and therefore likely not on my roster. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FrankRizzo 0 Posted July 24, 2007 I couldn't agree more with what Natural just said I'm a huge 9er Homer but more of a realistic fantasy football player so as much as I love these guys I understand they are overvalued and will go a Round earlier than I desire (especially since I live in Cali and a few other competitors are 9er homers - Gore pick #1!!!!!). It all comes down to Alex Smith .... I just can't quite trust the dude errrrrrrrr O-line quite yet. If he can get more than 2 seconds than DJax and VD can be freaks! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
staypuft29 0 Posted July 24, 2007 I couldn't agree more with what Natural just said I'm a huge 9er Homer but more of a realistic fantasy football player so as much as I love these guys I understand they are overvalued and will go a Round earlier than I desire (especially since I live in Cali and a few other competitors are 9er homers - Gore pick #1!!!!!). It all comes down to Alex Smith .... I just can't quite trust the dude errrrrrrrr O-line quite yet. If he can get more than 2 seconds than DJax and VD can be freaks! ummmm... the o-line is our strength. i think you might be confusing last years o-line with 2004 or 2005. we had a very solid o-line last year and it has only improved this year with the addition of joe staley and with everyone healthy again (jennings, heitmann). scot mccloughlan has said that from 1-10, this is the deepest and most talented o-line he has ever worked with (and he used to be in seattle with jones and hutch). the jury is still out on smith, but i think he demonstrated last year that he has the potential to be an elite QB in this league. look at his games against seattle and denver. he showed the ability to stay poised and get the job done even when we were behind in games. again, he is far from a sure thing, but considering he has djax and davis along with a solid o-line, i think the odds of him having a breakout season are very good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RicemanX 20 Posted July 24, 2007 Watching Alex Smith last year, the best part was not seeing him make many young QB mistakes. Although he rarely (1 or 2 plays) showed signs of greatness, he also rarely showed signs of bust-ness. This guy will keep on improving, giving the Niners a chance to win, make the playoffs and such. But I really doubt he will ever be a huge impact fantasy football pick. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
staypuft29 0 Posted July 24, 2007 i don't really see how you can say he rarely showed greatness last year. the entire 4th quarter comeback against seattle was greatness. the naked bootleg where he scored untouched... the near sack scramble followed by the toss to gore for a TD... beating the best team in the division in an away game on prime time TV? none of those were signs of greatness? he also showed some great arm strength last year that people didn't know he had. remember the throw to battle where he threw off balance and hucked it 65 yards in the air to catch battle in stride? yeah, he had his fair share of errors, but to say he didn't show any signs of greatness is just plain ignorant. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RicemanX 20 Posted July 25, 2007 i don't really see how you can say he rarely showed greatness last year. the entire 4th quarter comeback against seattle was greatness. the naked bootleg where he scored untouched... the near sack scramble followed by the toss to gore for a TD... beating the best team in the division in an away game on prime time TV? none of those were signs of greatness? he also showed some great arm strength last year that people didn't know he had. remember the throw to battle where he threw off balance and hucked it 65 yards in the air to catch battle in stride? yeah, he had his fair share of errors, but to say he didn't show any signs of greatness is just plain ignorant. You must have great confused with "pretty good." Did you think Jeff Garcia was GREAT on the Niners too? The near sack scramble to Gore for the TD was the one I was thinking of. That was f'in awesome. But don't confuse Alex Smith's greatness with team effort. First off, anyone would have been able to get that naked bootleg into the endzone. Gore and the OLine were KILLING the Seahawks that game and the defense was playing Gore run the whole time. That wasn't QB greatness, that was great f'in Norv Turner playcalling. Alex Smith did not beat the best arm in the division, the Niners defense did. THey got 2 INTs if I remember correctly. Now it would be greatness if Alex Smith got those 2 INTs, but he didn't. IMO, the defense won that game for us. They kept us close with the Hawks until we had a chance to explode in the 4th. All the stuff you mentioned were against Seattle. Sure its awesome to beat those guys, but looking like an inexperienced child playing against teams like SD, CHI, and GB is NOT great. Greatness = Joe Montana, Steve Young. At this point, Alex Smith can help us win games, but he is NOT great. Only 5 games throwing over 200 yds is NOT great. Only 6 games without INTs is NOT great. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
staypuft29 0 Posted July 25, 2007 You must have great confused with "pretty good." Did you think Jeff Garcia was GREAT on the Niners too? The near sack scramble to Gore for the TD was the one I was thinking of. That was f'in awesome. But don't confuse Alex Smith's greatness with team effort. First off, anyone would have been able to get that naked bootleg into the endzone. Gore and the OLine were KILLING the Seahawks that game and the defense was playing Gore run the whole time. That wasn't QB greatness, that was great f'in Norv Turner playcalling. Alex Smith did not beat the best arm in the division, the Niners defense did. THey got 2 INTs if I remember correctly. Now it would be greatness if Alex Smith got those 2 INTs, but he didn't. IMO, the defense won that game for us. They kept us close with the Hawks until we had a chance to explode in the 4th. All the stuff you mentioned were against Seattle. Sure its awesome to beat those guys, but looking like an inexperienced child playing against teams like SD, CHI, and GB is NOT great. Greatness = Joe Montana, Steve Young. At this point, Alex Smith can help us win games, but he is NOT great. Only 5 games throwing over 200 yds is NOT great. Only 6 games without INTs is NOT great. actually, you're confusing great with greatest of all time. to set your standards at the level of joe montana and steve young is simply unfair. and i never said smith was great in general, i said he showed greatness more often than you gave him credit for (1 or 2 plays?? seriously?) and yes, the defense did well against seattle, but smith had 2 TD throws and a rushing TD in the 4th quarter alone. he was the third quarterback in NFL history to do that. and that was just an example off the top of my head. there were plenty of other times during the season where he showed greatness. again, i'm not saying he was great for the entire season (or even close to it), i'm simply saying he showed flashes of greatness, and on more than 1 or 2 plays. and the games against SD, CHI, and GB were in the beginning of the season, when smith was still maturing. keep in mind he only played in 9 games his rookie year, so he technically didn't finish a full rookie season until our 7th game this year. furthermore, he is STILL the youngest starting QB in the league, despite the fact that he was drafted in 2005 (young, cutler, and leinart are all older than smith). i think it's safe to say this kid has the chance to be something special, and anyone who disagrees is judging him far too soon. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FrankRizzo 0 Posted July 25, 2007 You must have great confused with "pretty good." Did you think Jeff Garcia was GREAT on the Niners too? I would think starting the Pro Bowl as GREAT!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RicemanX 20 Posted July 26, 2007 I would think starting the Pro Bowl as GREAT!! damn, i stand corrected. Scooter is probably reading this and wishing he could burn is alive right now. But no, I don't think Alex Smith is going to be special. I'm not writing the guy off, I'm not saying he's not living up to the "#1 pick hype". But I don't see Smith hoisting the Niners on his shoulders and taking them to the playoffs or the superbowl. How many more years are we going to give him before we accept that he is not going to become a yearly top 10 QB? I say one more. If he doesn't excel with this roster, I don't think he can do well with any roster. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
