Auction Strategies - Take it or Leave it.

[Ambroc 0]

For our purposes, assume a fourteen team league, $100 bankroll, $1 bidding increments. $1400 dollar float. (14 teams x $100.)

Note: If you have a different bankroll, adjust accordingly.

 

For each player, determine his EXPECTED POINTS total for the entire season using your scoring format, which we will call E(P). Many software or online sites do this for you, but you should tweak numbers until you are comfortable. Do not get too exact with this number; there is way, way too much noise to make a perfect prediction.

 

Add a section beside each player that notes any biases you may have -- real or imagined -- that may influence your bidding during the auction. Why would you have a "Bias" section when you already have an EXPECTED POINTS section? Aren't those biases factored into the E(P) formulation? Good question.

 

The answer is not simple, nor obvious. The E(P) does NOT factor in the variance or the "shape" of the probability around E(P). Often times, people assume a "bell-shaped" curve when they have an expected value for scoring; that is to say, if a player is predicted to score 100 points for a season, a "normal" probability distribution ("bell-curve") would predict that if he did not score 100 points, he would be just as likely to score 95 as he would to score 105. If you had a player with "not much upside" but "alot of downside", you may decide that if he does not score 100 points, he is MORE likely to score 105 points than 95 points, but MORE likely to score 50 points than 150 points. You can see that although both the normal distribution and this altered one may lead to an expected point total of 100, the shape of the distribution is different.

 

That's the long answer.

 

The short answer is: You want something extra to consider while you are at the auction. Do you want a bunch of players on your team with little upside? After you "buy" that risky player, do you want to settle down and buy some low risk players?

 

For my bias markers, I use strength of schedule (s- means tough schedule and s+ means easy) and likely team record (R is that his team is likely to do well, r is not so well.) Granted, these two measures are not statistically certain, and they do have a great deal of overlap, but I think they are helpful. You may have your own measures. Some like to use Injury Risk. (I)

 

Let's take for example L. Jordan last year. Solid talent, coming off a wonderful year. My auction values had him lower than most, but I wanted something to remind me why I had his E(P) lower. I predicted his team to stink and his running strength of schedule to be horrible. I believed he would score around 120 points, but I also thought he was much more likely to be at 90 than 150.

 

The next section should be your Rating section. Just separate your players to make it easier to discern "tiers" during the auction.

 

Finally, you need to figure out the EXPECTED VALUE or E($) of each player for bidding purposes where the sum of each players E($) equals the float ($1400 in our example.)

 

How do you figure the EXPECTED VALUE?

 

Some like to use strict value, based on positioning. That is to say, compare a player's predicted score to that of the average player at that position. If you play 2 RBs and you are in a 14 team league, then all RBs are compared to the 14th (actually, the 14 and 1/2 player.) You figure out what the value of the 14th player and then go from there.

 

I think that is a load of shite.

 

In my mind, you start at the top. Take your best players at every position, rank them A+. These are the players will high E(P)s that are nearly certain to be top three (barring injury.) These are the gold standards. These are the kids of players that if you own, you might be able to get to the play-offs even if the rest of your team stunk. Last year, there were four. (SA, LT, LJ and P.Manning.)

 

Work down from these studs. Are they likely to outscore those below them by 40-50-60%? If you add together the E(P) of your top RB and add it to the E(P) some skunky RBs ranked 28 (or 29 or 30 who can all be bought for a $1 each), do you outscore the running backs at position 10 and 18? Look at the E(P) numbers, do a few calcultation in your head, consider your system, do the math and the E($) will come quite easily.

 

Then trim. Go to each tier, consider the E(P), the biases, personal opinion, league tendencies, tea leaves, a witch doctor, ... whatever; and then move your E($) around until you are comfortable. Have a funny feeling about Vick ("saw him in the park beating his dog"), drop him a couple of bucks in you E($). Move people across tiers if you have to, but remember one rule: if you subtract or add E($) to a player you must find legitimate reason to add or subtract E($) from another player to compensate. The float ($1400) must remain constant. If you cannot find good reason, then DON'T TOUCH THE NUMBERS.

 

Calculating E($) is the fun part of auction preparation. (See below for my calculations (good and bad) from last year.)

 

You want to buy players for less than E($) whenever possible (duh!). Some suggest 10% lower, but I would be happy after the auction is I bought $110 - $120 worth of players for my $100.

 

I also like to place a percentage beside each position that reminds me how much of the total float ($1400) I devoted to that position. Why?

Because I want to know during the auction when a position is being overvalued and undervalued. If a whole bunch of quarterbacks are going for too much money (in my opinion), then I know that there is value elsewhere. If running backs are going cheaply in the early going, that may mean I may have to pay more for a running back later -- so I better take the next RB "deal" I can find before prices inflate.

 

It's like counting cards at a black jack table. I recommend that you count cards.

 

Hope this has been of some help. Note: E(P) and E($) below are unique to my league (and last year.)

 

Oh, one last bit of advice: Current magazines have LT ranked as the highest valued player. Problem is: they still undervalue him AFA auction values are concerned. His E(P) is 30% higher than the next running back (IMHO), yet I see his E($) only a couple of bucks above Steven Jackson. If you are new to an auction and have no desire to crunch the numbers, I suggest you bid LT up and enjoy your trip to the play-offs.

 

 

 

Quarterbacks (17%/238) E(P) Bias Rating E($)

 

P. Manning 190 R,s+ A+ 31

 

C. Palmer 160 s- A 26

T. Brady 160 R A 20

M. Hasselbeck 160 R,s+ A 19

 

D. McNabb 150 A- 16

 

E. Manning 140 s- B+ 14

J. Delhomme 140 s- B+ 12

B. Roethlisberger 140 R,s- B+ 10

D. Culpepper 140 R B+ 10

B. Favre 140 r,s+ B+ 10

 

K. Warner 130 s+ B 8

J. Plummer 130 R B 8

T. Green 130 R,s+ B 8

D. Bledsoe 130 R B 8

M. Bulger 130 B 8

M. Vick 130 s- B 6

B. Leftwich 130 s+ B 5

S. McNair 130 s- B 5

 

P. Rivers 110 s+ C+ 2

A. Brooks 110 r,s+ C+ 2

M. Brunell 110 C+ 2

D. Brees 110 r,s- C+ 2

 

C. Simms 100 s- C 1

J. Kitna 100 C 1

B. Johnson 100 s- C 1

D. Carr 100 r C 1

C. Frye 100 s- C 1

C. Pennington 100 r,s+ C 1

B. Volek 100 r C 1

K. Holcomb 100 r C 1

 

R. Griese <100 R D 0

A. Smith <100 r D 0

 

Running Backs (>52%/629) E(P) Bias Rating E($)

 

S. Alexander 200 R,s+ A+ 47

L. Tomlinson 200 s+ A+ 47

L. Johnson 200 R A+ 44

 

T. Barber 140 s- A 36

R. Brown 140 R,s+ A 36

 

E. James 130 s+ A- 33

R. Johnson 130 s- A- 32

S. Jackson 130 s- A- 28

B. Westbrook (I) 130 s- A- 27

 

L. Jordan 120 r,s- B+ 22

W. Parker 120 R,s- B+ 21

W. McGahee 120 r B+ 20

C. Portis (I) 120 B+ 18

 

C. Dillon 110 R B 17

C. Williams 110 B 17

W. Dunn 110 s- B 16

K. Jones 110 r,s+ B 16

R. Bush NS 110 r B 15

C. Taylor 110 B 13

J. Lewis 110 s- B 13

D. Rhodes 110 R,s+ B 12

D. Foster 110 R B 11

F. Gore 110 r B 10

 

J. Jones 90 R C 9

D. McAllister 90 r C 8

T. Jones 90 R,s+ C 8

R. Droughns 90 s- C 6

M. Bell 90 R,s- C 5

T. Bell NS 90 R,s- C 5

F. Taylor 90 s+ C 5

A. Green 90 r,s+ C 5

X. Lundy (HOU) 90 r C 4

 

T. Henry 80 r C- 3

D. Williams NS 80 R C- 3

X. Addai NS 80 R,s+ C- 3

L. Maroney NS 80 R C- 3

 

C. Houston <70 D 2

C. Benson NS <70 R,s+ D 2

M. Turner NS <70 s+ D 2

S. Gado NS <70 r,s+ D 1

M. Barber NS <70 R D 1

X. Harrison NS <70 r D 1

T. Duckett NS <70 D 1

C. Brown NS <70 r D 1

 

Wide Receivers (23%/322) E(P) Bias Rating E($)

 

 

S. Smith (I) 130 s- A 22

M. Harrison 130 s+ A 20

C. Johnson 130 s- A 19

T. Holt (I) 130 A 18

 

R. Moss 120 s+ A- 17

L. Fitzgerald 120 s+ A- 16

R. Wayne 120 s+ A- 16

C. Chambers (I) 120 A- 15

R. Williams (I) 120 s- A- 14

A. Boldin 120 s+ A- 12

 

T. Owens 110 B+ 11

H. Ward (I) 110 s- B+ 11

J. Galloway 110 s- B+ 9

P. Burress 110 B+ 9

R. Smith 110 B+ 9

D. Driver 110 B+ 8

D. Jackson (I) 110 s+ B+ 8

J. Horn (I) 110 s- B+ 8

T. Houshman 110 s- B+ 8

 

A. Johnson 100 s+ B 6

S. Moss 100 B 6

E. Kennison 100 s+ B 5

A. Bryant 100 B 5

D. Mason 100 B 5

T. Glenn 100 B 5

M. Jones 100 s+ B 5

 

J. Walker 90 B- 3

M. Muhammad 90 B- 3

L. Evans 90 B- 3

D. Branch 90 s- B- 3

D. Bennett 90 B- 3

T. Williamson (MIN) 90 B- 3

 

N. Burleson (SEA) 75 C 1

E. Moulds (HOU) 75 C 1

C. Bradford (DET) 75 C 1

R. White (ATL) 75 C 1

R. Brown (PHI) 75 C 1

D. Stallworth 75 C 1

A. Leslie 75 C 1

M. Clayton (BAL) 75 C 1

D. Givens (TEN) 75 C 1

K. McCardell 75 C 1

J. Jurevicius 75 C 1

L. Coles 75 C 1

A. Toomer 75 C 1

I. Bruce 75 C 1

K. Johnson (CAR) 75 C 1

X. Ferguson 75 C 1

B. Stokely 75 C 1

 

Tight Ends (04%/56) E(P) Bias Rating E($)

 

A. Gates 100 A+ 9

 

T. Gonzalez 60 A 4

T. Heap 60 A 4

J. Shockey 60 A 4

A. Crumpler 60 A 4

R. McMichael 60 A 4

J. Witten 60 A 4

 

B. Watson 50 A- 3

V. Davis 50 A- 3

C. Cooley 50 A- 3

L. Smith (PHI) 50 A- 3

 

H. Miller 45 B 2

B. Franks 45 B 2

D. Clark (IND) 45 B 2

 

J. Stevens (SEA) 40 C 1

M. Pollard (DET) 40 C 1

B. Troupe (TEN) 40 C 1

J. Klopenstein (STL) 40 C 1

Z. Hilton (NO) 40 C 1

 

K. Winslow 40 D 0

A. Smith (TB) 40 D 0

C. Anderson (OAK) 30 D 0

J. Wiggins (MIN) 30 D 0

K. Everett (BUF) 30 D 0

S. Alexander (DEN) 30 D 0

 

DEFENSE (<03%/36) E(P) Bias Rating E($)

 

Bears (CHI) 120 A 3

Panthers (CAR) 120 A 3

Steelers (PIT) 120 A 3

 

Seahawks (SEA) 100 B 2

Dolphins (MIA) 100 B 2

Jaguars (JAC) 100 B 2

Giants (NYG) 100 B 2

Eagles (PHI) 100 B 2

Colts (IND) 100 B 2

Vikings (MIN) 100 B 2

Ravens (BAL) 100 B 2

Buccaneers (TB) 100 B 2

Cowboys (DAL) 100 B 2

 

Bengals (CIN) 90 C 1

Redskins (WAS) 90 C 1

Patriots (NE) 90 C 1

Jets (NYJ) 90 C 1

Chiefs (KC) 90 C 1

Broncos (DEN) 90 C 1

Lions (DET) 90 C 1

 

Falcons (ATL) 80 D 0

Titans (TEN) 80 D 0

49ers (SF) 80 D 0

Saints (NO) 80 D 0

Rams (STL) 80 D 0

Bills (BUF) 80 D 0

 

 

PK (<02%/21) E(P) Bias Rating E($)

 

A. Vinatieri 130 A 3

N. Rackers 130 A 3

 

S. Graham 120 B 2

J. Elam 120 B 2

 

J. Feely 110 C 1

J. Kasay 110 C 1

J. Wilkins 110 C 1

M. Vanderjagt 110 C 1

D. Akers 110 C 1

L. Tynes 110 C 1

M. Stover 110 C 1

J. Reed 110 C 1

J. Brown 110 C 1

N. Kaeding 110 C 1

R. Longwell (MIN) 110 C 1

[DankNuggs 305]

very interesting, thanks

 

 

always wanted to do an auction league.

[Ambroc 0]

I am - as you can tell - a big fan of auctions.

 

In answer to another question on this board:

 

I like to budget less than 20% to QBs and up to 55% for RBs, but that has a lot to do with our league size and rules of play. With a PPR league, I might give the WR some love.

 

 

very interesting, thanks

always wanted to do an auction league.

[Bert 1,092]

Good stuff.

 

I've been in an auction league for a long time and as you I perfer it a serpentine draft. Although I incorporate many of the same tenants that you use my method is much more simplistic. I rank players by position based on my expected value. My expected value includes any biases I have. I put the players in tiers and then tag players like Maroney with an HRR (high risk/reward). Next to each player I have the average price paid in our league for that slot over the last 3 years. I use this price to determine the portion of my budget allocated to each position.

[SmilenJack 0]

However this doesn't always account for crazy owners and homers,,,

 

LT went for $59.00

Reggie Bush went for 28.00

 

The guy that has LT also has Addia and Brady as keepers, besides that he has 5 third string wide outs and 2 poor tight ends and Kickers. However he could put up some serious points or bust.

[Ambroc 0]

Auctions that involve keepers or are half auction/half draft (yes, this is done) add a wrinkle for sure.

 

I like hearing how others approach the auction. One thing is for sure: If you are NOT prepared for an auction, you are doomed.

 

 

However this doesn't always account for crazy owners and homers,,,

 

LT went for $59.00

Reggie Bush went for 28.00

 

The guy that has LT also has Addia and Brady as keepers, besides that he has 5 third string wide outs and 2 poor tight ends and Kickers. However he could put up some serious points or bust.

[boogaloobboy 0]

Preparing for an auction starts with having accurate average dollar values for players. The next step is portioning your cap by position, much like the orginal poster I prepare to spend 50-55% (100-110 bucks in 200 cap) on backs in my auction league. It is VITAL to take into account the scoring of your league and starting spots, if you can play 2 rb's and a flex you really need to get 3 backs into those three spots as reliable points takes the day. A couple of my personal opinions and the story behind them............

1. Be aware of trends and follow them. No matter how many times you mock each draft is an entirely seperate entity. The ebbs and flows are very interesting and make it the ONLY skilled way to play fantasy, serpentine is vastly inferior method to determine fantasy skill. If you see that QB's are going cheap then get one asap. If you see backs are being overpaid for wait until the top ten are gone and people are starting to show some cap damage and then save 3-4 bucks on the McGahees and Travis Henry's of the world.

 

2. Do NOT fall in love with certain players. This isn't snake drafting and deciding that someone is on the verge of a breakout and overpaying when you could get the same production for less money sinks ships. Remember 10 td's is 10 TD's regardless of the player scoring them.

 

3. Stars and scrubs does not (IMO) work. Last year I took SA for 70 bucks and Ronnie Brown for 43. Guess how many games I won? 3. In a two or even three week playoff system you are not going to win riding one player. I doubt anyone who had LT last year won an auction league. Why? Because when his production drops (EVERYONE has off weeks) you are left with douches to fill the gaps. If you are in a good league where you can't snipe every WW hero then your hard pressed to win spending 35-40 percent of your cap on one guy. (and LT is going for about 42% of caps this year average.)

 

4. Don't spend on wideouts. I spent heavy (30 bucks of a 200 cap) on Fitz last year and he was not even close to worth it. It is my opinion that you should portion 20-30% of your cap on wideouts at the most. You are much better off getting 2 middling recievers (those ranked 12-25ish) than one hoss guy because if you get injuries in a cap league your done.

 

5. Average draft costs (or you personal cost evaluations) are your bible. Don't get caught up thinking "Just two more dollars and I can get LT!!" This type of thinking leaves you scrambling to fill spots and hurts you in the long run. DON'T OVERSPEND FOR PLAYERS!

 

Lastly if you end up with spare money after the draft don't despair and add FA's, just wait till the week one waivers and celebrate your great cap management by getting the up and comers. Remember very few leagues are won outright on draft day, but many are won thru trading and WW pickups.

[IndyTom 0]

Great advice guys!

 

My first auction draft is Saturday so I have been grasping for any angle posted on the internet. I think I am ready and these posts provide a wonderful sanity check for me.

 

[Ambroc 0]

Great advice, especially number 4. I hate to spend money on wide outs.

 

Preparing for an auction starts with having accurate average dollar values for players. The next step is portioning your cap by position, much like the orginal poster I prepare to spend 50-55% (100-110 bucks in 200 cap) on backs in my auction league. It is VITAL to take into account the scoring of your league and starting spots, if you can play 2 rb's and a flex you really need to get 3 backs into those three spots as reliable points takes the day. A couple of my personal opinions and the story behind them............

1. Be aware of trends and follow them. No matter how many times you mock each draft is an entirely seperate entity. The ebbs and flows are very interesting and make it the ONLY skilled way to play fantasy, serpentine is vastly inferior method to determine fantasy skill. If you see that QB's are going cheap then get one asap. If you see backs are being overpaid for wait until the top ten are gone and people are starting to show some cap damage and then save 3-4 bucks on the McGahees and Travis Henry's of the world.

 

2. Do NOT fall in love with certain players. This isn't snake drafting and deciding that someone is on the verge of a breakout and overpaying when you could get the same production for less money sinks ships. Remember 10 td's is 10 TD's regardless of the player scoring them.

 

3. Stars and scrubs does not (IMO) work. Last year I took SA for 70 bucks and Ronnie Brown for 43. Guess how many games I won? 3. In a two or even three week playoff system you are not going to win riding one player. I doubt anyone who had LT last year won an auction league. Why? Because when his production drops (EVERYONE has off weeks) you are left with douches to fill the gaps. If you are in a good league where you can't snipe every WW hero then your hard pressed to win spending 35-40 percent of your cap on one guy. (and LT is going for about 42% of caps this year average.)

 

4. Don't spend on wideouts. I spent heavy (30 bucks of a 200 cap) on Fitz last year and he was not even close to worth it. It is my opinion that you should portion 20-30% of your cap on wideouts at the most. You are much better off getting 2 middling recievers (those ranked 12-25ish) than one hoss guy because if you get injuries in a cap league your done.

 

5. Average draft costs (or you personal cost evaluations) are your bible. Don't get caught up thinking "Just two more dollars and I can get LT!!" This type of thinking leaves you scrambling to fill spots and hurts you in the long run. DON'T OVERSPEND FOR PLAYERS!

 

Lastly if you end up with spare money after the draft don't despair and add FA's, just wait till the week one waivers and celebrate your great cap management by getting the up and comers. Remember very few leagues are won outright on draft day, but many are won thru trading and WW pickups.

[49ER MAN 0]

Preparing for an auction starts with having accurate average dollar values for players. The next step is portioning your cap by position, much like the orginal poster I prepare to spend 50-55% (100-110 bucks in 200 cap) on backs in my auction league. It is VITAL to take into account the scoring of your league and starting spots, if you can play 2 rb's and a flex you really need to get 3 backs into those three spots as reliable points takes the day. A couple of my personal opinions and the story behind them............

1. Be aware of trends and follow them. No matter how many times you mock each draft is an entirely seperate entity. The ebbs and flows are very interesting and make it the ONLY skilled way to play fantasy, serpentine is vastly inferior method to determine fantasy skill. If you see that QB's are going cheap then get one asap. If you see backs are being overpaid for wait until the top ten are gone and people are starting to show some cap damage and then save 3-4 bucks on the McGahees and Travis Henry's of the world.

 

2. Do NOT fall in love with certain players. This isn't snake drafting and deciding that someone is on the verge of a breakout and overpaying when you could get the same production for less money sinks ships. Remember 10 td's is 10 TD's regardless of the player scoring them.

 

3. Stars and scrubs does not (IMO) work. Last year I took SA for 70 bucks and Ronnie Brown for 43. Guess how many games I won? 3. In a two or even three week playoff system you are not going to win riding one player. I doubt anyone who had LT last year won an auction league. Why? Because when his production drops (EVERYONE has off weeks) you are left with douches to fill the gaps. If you are in a good league where you can't snipe every WW hero then your hard pressed to win spending 35-40 percent of your cap on one guy. (and LT is going for about 42% of caps this year average.)

 

4. Don't spend on wideouts. I spent heavy (30 bucks of a 200 cap) on Fitz last year and he was not even close to worth it. It is my opinion that you should portion 20-30% of your cap on wideouts at the most. You are much better off getting 2 middling recievers (those ranked 12-25ish) than one hoss guy because if you get injuries in a cap league your done.

 

5. Average draft costs (or you personal cost evaluations) are your bible. Don't get caught up thinking "Just two more dollars and I can get LT!!" This type of thinking leaves you scrambling to fill spots and hurts you in the long run. DON'T OVERSPEND FOR PLAYERS!

 

Lastly if you end up with spare money after the draft don't despair and add FA's, just wait till the week one waivers and celebrate your great cap management by getting the up and comers. Remember very few leagues are won outright on draft day, but many are won thru trading and WW pickups.

 

The guy in our auction league won the title in 2006 thanks to LT as well as getting decent production from KJ, Benson,Jacobs, Marvin,Brady and Furrey.

[boogaloobboy 0]

The guy in our auction league won the title in 2006 thanks to LT as well as getting decent production from KJ, Benson,Jacobs, Marvin,Brady and Furrey.

 

Well didn't Harrison score 3 td's one playoff week? Sure you can win if 2 or 3 of your 1/2 dollar flyers pay off but those people rarely pan out and its poor strategy to plan on catching lightning in a bottle.

[Ambroc 0]

The big bang strategy of auctioneering can pay dividends.

 

Problem is, if you happen to pick SA (last year) instead of LT, you are screwed.

 

This year, I think if you can get LT for less than 47% of you wad, you can still pick up three hit-or-miss $10 RBs later that can be more than servicable.

[Ambroc 0]

The big bang strategy of auctioneering can pay dividends.

 

Problem is, if you happen to pick SA (last year) instead of LT, you are screwed.

 

This year, I think if you can get LT for less than 47% of you wad, you can still pick up three hit-or-miss $10 RBs later that can be more than servicable.

 

Another mistake first time auctioners make is to forget to adjust their "cheat sheet" numbers up if they are playing in a league with more owners. If you buy a cheat sheet which gives dollar amounts for a 10 team league, and you have 14 teams, you must adjust upward accordingly.

[phillyjinx 21]

Good read fellas I also play in an auction league. Last year we decided that we all can keep one player with an additional $5 tacked on to the price we paid for him. I got Addai for $3 last year. So I get to keep him for $8. I too also spend about 55% on RB's. Im in a dilemma though. Since I get a top 5 back for $8 should I go out and get a SJAX for AAV $70 and a $20 back with a few fliers (LT is being kept) or get 2 $40- $50 backs with a few fliers. Note: we have a flex pos WR/RB and start two RB's. This is also a 12 team PPR league w/$200 salary cap.

[Ambroc 0]

Good read fellas I also play in an auction league. Last year we decided that we all can keep one player with an additional $5 tacked on to the price we paid for him. I got Addai for $3 last year. So I get to keep him for $8. I too also spend about 55% on RB's. Im in a dilemma though. Since I get a top 5 back for $8 should I go out and get a SJAX for AAV $70 and a $20 back with a few fliers (LT is being kept) or get 2 $40- $50 backs with a few fliers. Note: we have a flex pos WR/RB and start two RB's. This is also a 12 team PPR league w/$200 salary cap.

 

I love the idea of a semi-keeper league...but not as much as starting over every single year. Wish I could do both.

[cgod 0]

Link to a post of my roster after a recent auction. Smaller league with a larger bankroll and IDP. It was not my intention or strategy going into the draft to do what I did but it worked out that way when all 5 of the big name players I landed went for less than I charted them. I totally sacrificed any semblance of depth at RB so I am hoping for a minor miracle or two (also still some serviceable RBs left on the WW due to small roster limits in a small league) and praying for no major injuries or busts.

 

LT at $95 when Gore and Bush went for $87, SJax and Addai for $85, FWP for $83, LJ at $78 and SA for $60 worked out OK. Carson Palmer ended up going for more than what I paid for Manning which surprised me. I got Wayne after watching Smith go at $50 and CJ, Harrison, and Holt all at $46 (with Holt as mine too) go for more and TO coming in at $42. ETA: Fitz went a few picks after Wayne also for $44.

 

Would have been far more difficult to pull off in a 12 teamer and near impossible in a 14 teamer and I definitely sacrificed any semblance of RB depth but it was a chance I took.

 

Here's to a good blurb and praying for no injuries. Definitely a fan of auction style drafts since they seem more fair and don't just rely on drawing the right number. Your fate is in your own hands and you are rewarded or punished for your preparation or lack thereof.

[CookieG 4]

Good stuff guys.. i love my auction league and follow most of the guidelines you've listed above to a certain extent. My master draft sheet is ranked by my values (of course), TDs expected (my league is very TD heavy) and i have added strength of schedule, oline quality, bye weeks, which teams should be strong, etc. God bless spreadsheets.

I compile my info. and do a sort from a few FF sources that i like. Putting together possible roster combinations is a good idea.

 

What i would add to those who may balk at the prospect of having to do too much work and something that i think is a CRITICAL move anyway, is to make sure you have the results and auction picks of the draft the year prior or maybe even going back two seasons. That way you get a much more realistic sense of what players should go for at all positions.

 

If you are new to your league or don't have the draft values from the last couple of years, ask the commish or another owner.

[ICETIME25 0]

Great post. Some interesting twists for you...

 

1) I revalue players through the whole draft using the same theory you use for valuing them in the first place. If owners are overpaying early (even at different positions and tiers), I want to know the impact on later rounds. Vise versa if they are underpaying.

 

2) I use 5+ years of auction history along with FFToday Compiler and other tools to establish my original target values. Nothing beats inside knowledge of how your bidding process goes. Every now and then, someone tweaks their strategy, but not often and not by much.

 

3) We have a keeper auction league. Keeper values are based on auction values plus inflation (5%) plus performance inflators (i.e. top 5 for position, league MVP). We also use the Free Agent Blind Auction Process. Believe it or not, I sent the idea to CBS last year when we had been using it my league for two years. They use the terminology and logic I provided. Anyway, the FABAP establishes keeper values for players acquired or re-acquired through free agency.

 

4) This adds another dynamic to the draft at excess value (underpaying) exists when someone keeps Steve Smith for $13 (we start with $1000 each).

 

5) I've got conditional formatting in my draft model that tells me who is overpaying (and how much) vs. who is underpaying and how much. This tells me who is bargain shopping versus stud sourcing (will be competing for $1 players later).

 

6) One last thing....I track positions acquired by tiers and starting line-ups. For instance, if someone acquires Leinart (#13 ranked QB based on my scoring) most folks would think this owner just acquired his QB and not worry about him competing for Brees (#4 in my scoring system)....WRONG....I slot Leinart into his #2 QB slot and continue to auction as if he still has to acquire his #1 QB. You have to have faith in your rankings to follow this religiously.

 

I hope no one in my league is reading this board. Even if they are...I've got a few more tricks in my model.

[Ambroc 0]

Ice,

Nice to see people take the auction to the next "level." I also use the avarage statistics from the last five years to establish numbers, especially to measure whether predicted numbers are in the ballpark of reality.

Good post.

-Ambroc

 

 

Great post. Some interesting twists for you...

 

1) I revalue players through the whole draft using the same theory you use for valuing them in the first place. If owners are overpaying early (even at different positions and tiers), I want to know the impact on later rounds. Vise versa if they are underpaying.

 

2) I use 5+ years of auction history along with FFToday Compiler and other tools to establish my original target values. Nothing beats inside knowledge of how your bidding process goes. Every now and then, someone tweaks their strategy, but not often and not by much.

 

3) We have a keeper auction league. Keeper values are based on auction values plus inflation (5%) plus performance inflators (i.e. top 5 for position, league MVP). We also use the Free Agent Blind Auction Process. Believe it or not, I sent the idea to CBS last year when we had been using it my league for two years. They use the terminology and logic I provided. Anyway, the FABAP establishes keeper values for players acquired or re-acquired through free agency.

 

4) This adds another dynamic to the draft at excess value (underpaying) exists when someone keeps Steve Smith for $13 (we start with $1000 each).

 

5) I've got conditional formatting in my draft model that tells me who is overpaying (and how much) vs. who is underpaying and how much. This tells me who is bargain shopping versus stud sourcing (will be competing for $1 players later).

 

6) One last thing....I track positions acquired by tiers and starting line-ups. For instance, if someone acquires Leinart (#13 ranked QB based on my scoring) most folks would think this owner just acquired his QB and not worry about him competing for Brees (#4 in my scoring system)....WRONG....I slot Leinart into his #2 QB slot and continue to auction as if he still has to acquire his #1 QB. You have to have faith in your rankings to follow this religiously.

 

I hope no one in my league is reading this board. Even if they are...I've got a few more tricks in my model.

[popozudapete 0]

My auction draft is this Saturday. I just purchased the FF Today Football Compiler and it's giving some really high suggested maximum bids for my players in my auction draft. For instance, it suggests a max bid of $78 for Ladanian when I only have a $100 salary cap! Can this possibly be right? When I look on websites for average actual auction bid it is like half of this for LT. Does this sound right or did I potentially input my information wrong? Here's some basic details on the league and the maximum bids it's outputting:

 

Number of teams: 11

Scoring (pretty standard, copied from Yahoo):

 

Roster Positions: QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, K, DEF, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN

Stat Categories: Passing Yards (20 yards per point)

Passing Touchdowns (4)

Interceptions (-2)

Rushing Yards (10 yards per point)

Rushing Touchdowns (6)

Reception Yards (10 yards per point)

Reception Touchdowns (6)

2-Point Conversions (2)

Fumbles Lost (-2)

Field Goals 0-19 Yards (2)

Field Goals 20-29 Yards (3)

Field Goals 30-39 Yards (3)

Field Goals 40-49 Yards (4)

Field Goals 50+ Yards (5)

Point After Attempt Made (1)

Sack (1)

Interception (2)

Fumble Recovery (2)

Touchdown (4)

Safety (2)

Block Kick (2)

Kickoff and Punt Return Touchdowns (4)

Points Allowed 0 points (7)

Points Allowed 1-6 points (4)

Points Allowed 7-13 points (2)

Points Allowed 14-20 points (1)

Points Allowed 21-27 points (0)

Points Allowed 28-34 points (-1)

Points Allowed 35+ points (-4)

[popozudapete 0]

Never mind my previous post. I just needed to change my rankings to compiler auction recommended. Now LT is more reasonably valued at $40

[Ambroc 0]

Never mind my previous post. I just needed to change my rankings to compiler auction recommended. Now LT is more reasonably valued at $40

 

 

Whew. I like LT, but $78 is whacko.

 

$40 seems about right, not knowing all the particulars. I'd err on the side of overpaying, however, since he is a Hall of Fame running back attempting to be the best ever.