***Official Week #6 NFL Football Gambling Thread***

[Bouve 0]

Lines as of 10/12/07 from Pinnacle Sports.

 

Sunday:

 

Cincinnati -3 vs Kansas City (42.5)

Houston vs Jacksonville -6.5 (37)

Miami vs Cleveland -4.5 (45)

Minnesota vs Chicago -5 (37)

Philadelphia -3.5 vs New York Jets (43)

St louis vs Baltimore -9.5 (37)

Tennessee vs Tampa Bay -3 (37.5)

Washington vs Green Bay -3 (41)

Carolina vs Arizona -4.5 (40.5)

New England -5 vs Dallas (53)

Oakland vs San Diego -9.5 (44)

New Orleans vs Seattle -6.5 (43)

 

Monday:

 

New Yorl Giants -3.5 vs Atlanta (44)

[EAwer 1]

if anyone cares i like:

KC

Houston

Miami

Chicago

Tenn

New England

San Diego

Seattle

NYG

 

GL ALL

[ROCKET 0]

Only playing 2 games

 

Minny +5

Arizona -4.5

 

GL Everyone.

[GiantsRule 0]

One parlay for Sunday. Don't usually parlay games from different timeframes, but I like both as individual plays and probably won't be home for the first game:

 

Philly-NYJ Over 43

NE-Dallas Over 52 (-120); bought the half

 

Love that 2nd play although it looks like a blatant trap (guess the bookies are too nervous to put it around 55-56). Even if Phi-NYJ loses, I may through more on the 4:15 p.m. matchup.

 

Good luck to all!

[ToledoLurch 0]

Looking for a fresh start with the NFL picks...

 

a frosty six pack this week.

 

Dallas +3

Tennesee +3

Baltimore -10

Cleveland -4

Jacksonville -7

Kansas City +3

 

all for one unit.

good luck!

[Kemosobe 1]

I'll take:

Tenn/Tampa UNDER 37.5

Minny/Chi UNDER 37

Cincy -3

STL +9.5

Philly -3.5

[Bouve 0]

Plenty of picks for me this week.

 

Cincinnati -3

Miami +4

Miami ML

Philadelphia -3.5

St Louis +9

Arizona -4.5

San Diego -9.5

New York Giants -3.5

[swirvenirvin 25]

Maurice Jones-Drew (Jaguars) Will He Score a Touchdown - Must Play

Yes

No 10/14/07(13:00 ET)

Yes +115

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Plenty of picks for me this week.

 

Cincinnati -3

Miami +4

Miami ML

Philadelphia -3.5

St Louis +9

Arizona -4.5

San Diego -9.5

New York Giants -3.5

 

Good Luck, I'm still trying to sort this mess out in the NFL. It looks like you like Miami alot this week, with your two bets and one of them being a moneyline. I'll admit Ronnie Brown is going to give Cleveland trouble and there is no Jamal Lewis to return the favor. I don't know enough about the backup Wright to say whether he'll chew up alot of yards or not. Derrick Anderson is Cleveland's early success story as he is ranked with the 5th highest fantasy points of all qbs on yahoo. Originally I was on Cleveland, but I could also see Cleveland losing this game as they are not yet a model of consistency. I see you like St. Louis +9. I can't figure out anything good to say about them except that they are overdue and the Ravens have no passing game.

[phillybear 365]

Overall NFL YTD: 24-17-2; -4.2 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 6-9-1; -10.35 units

Teasers: 6-1; +4.8 units

 

Sunday

 

For 3 units each

Minnesota (+4.5) WINNER

Philadelphia (-3.5) WINNER

Tampa Bay (-2.5)@-115 WINNER

Washington (+3.5)@-120 WINNER

Arizona (-5) LOSER

Dallas (+5.5) LOSER

 

10 pt Teaser for 1 unit LOSER

Kansas City (+13)

Houston (+16.5)

Baltimore (+1)

 

Good luck to all.

[phillybear 365]

Where the action is going...

 

Cincinnai 75% over Kansas City

Houston 58% over Jacksonville

Cleveland 74% over Miami

Chicago 68% over Minnesota

Philadelphia 74% over NY Jets

St Louis 52% over Baltimore

Tennessee 74% over Tampa Bay

Washington 54% over Green Bay

Arizona 73% over Carolina

New England 73% over Dallas

Oakland 52% over San Diego

Seattle 59% over New Orleans

[JT 137]

NFL YTD 7-5

 

The combination of the NFL's uncertainty and the sites unreliability on Sunday's has really cut down my NFL picks. Only a couple I like this week, so here goes:

 

Arizona -4.5 vs Carolina: Carr has been downgraded to questionable, which means the possibility of Vinnie Testaverde starting at QB for Carolina. The Panthers have enough offensive issues with their starters. Arizona is feeling good about themselves right now, starting to show signs of a running game. I still have some reservations, as I believe that Warner will be increasingly less effective as teams have the opportunity to game plan for him, and the inevitable hits he'll take have their toll on him. But for this week, I'll go with the Cards.

 

Kansas City +3 vs Cincinnati: 75% of the public is on Cincy, which is my first red flag. That's an awful big percentage on a team that can't defend anything: not the run (#30), not the pass (#28). They're truly awful. KC can at least play the run, and Huard appears to be able to play. Yes, the Chiefs rolled over last week. That'll happen with below-average teams. But Cincy's not appreciably better. They do have the bye week in their favor, but I think the Chiefs keep this close.

 

Cleveland -4 vs Miami: Much of what I said above about Cincy could apply to the Browns as well. The difference is, they're at home, and can stack the box and see if Cleo Lemon can beat them throwing the ball. Miami's pass defense is ranked #3, but I think you have to look beyond the stats. Only three teams have had fewer passes attempted against them than the Fins (Jacksonville, New Orleans, Denver). Both the Jags and Saints have played one fewer game, and the Broncos are so terrible against the run that few teams feel the need to throw much. That's my take on Miami (#31 vs run) as well. Ronnie Brown should have a decent day, but the Browns big play nature wins this game.

 

Add Houston +6.5 @ Jax

 

 

Thoughts on a couple other contests:

 

I actually like the Ravens ability to cover 9.5 against the banged up Rams better if McNair (questionable) stays on the sidelines. I was an adamant defender of his last season, but I think this offense is now more potent with Boller at QB. McNair's suspect arm and statue-like presence is a liability.

 

If I knew for certain that Tommie Harris was healthy and playing, I wouldn't have a problem taking Chicago and giving points to Minnesota. Greise looked a bit more comfortable last week, and the Vikes pass defense is awful. But 5.5 is a lot of points in a game that might end 3-0.

 

The Chargers looked great last week, but I think folks are a bit caught up in that one victory against an awful Broncos run defense. 10.5 points to a Raiders team that has played decent defense, has had two weeks for Culpepper to get set as the QB, and is coming off a bye, is too many imo.

 

I'd love to take Seattle and lay the 6.5 vs New Orelans tonight, but without Branch, the Seahawks WR are suspect. The Saints won't get much. Seattle's cornerbacks can run and cover, and will pose real problems for the inexperienced WR of New Orleans.

 

OK, let's see a show of hands. How many projected Tampa Bay vs Tennessee as one of the best games of the week when the season started? Hands? Anyone? I thought so. Me neither.

 

Good luck to all!

[brian1974 0]

Overall NFL YTD: 24-17-2; -4.2 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 6-9-1; -10.35 units

Teasers: 6-1; +4.8 units

 

Sunday

 

For 3 units each

Minnesota (+4.5)

Philadelphia (-3.5)

Tampa Bay (-2.5)@-115

Washington (+3.5)@-120

Arizona (+5)

Dallas (+5.5)

 

10 pt Teaser

Kansas City (+13)

Houston (+16.5)

Baltimore (+1)

 

Good luck to all.

 

 

Philly, AZ is favored, Im sure you know that, so its probably typo.

[phillybear 365]

Philly, AZ is favored, Im sure you know that, so its probably typo.

 

Fixed it. Thanks.

[brian1974 0]

Lets try to analyze this KC /Bengals game. Why is it that KC is favored by 3? It seems very odd. However, Cincy's D is Horrible, and my grandma using a walker could get through them. However, we all know that Cincy has a huge amount of fire power, and I dont think KC's defense is that good. I know LJ will probably have a huge day and slow down CIncy's Offense. So I suppose the question here is, can Bengals Offense score on the few opportunitites that they will get? I think KC's offense will sputter from time to time, and I think Bengals Offense will dominate. I know the public is huge on the Bengals, But I am not worried about that, I still think the Bengals will win outright. Please respond with any insights. thanks

[art schlichter's bookie 0]

The kiss of death goes to...

 

BAL/STL Under 37

Cincy/KC over 42.5

Philly -3.5

Ariz -4.5

 

Thinking about NE -5.5 and Skins +3

 

gl to all

[JT 137]

Lets try to analyze this KC /Bengals game. Why is it that KC is favored by 3? It seems very odd. However, Cincy's D is Horrible, and my grandma using a walker could get through them. However, we all know that Cincy has a huge amount of fire power, and I dont think KC's defense is that good. I know LJ will probably have a huge day and slow down CIncy's Offense. So I suppose the question here is, can Bengals Offense score on the few opportunitites that they will get? I think KC's offense will sputter from time to time, and I think Bengals Offense will dominate. I know the public is huge on the Bengals, But I am not worried about that, I still think the Bengals will win outright. Please respond with any insights. thanks

 

KC's not favored by 3; they're a home dog.

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

YTD NFL

31-26-2 (+15.15 units)

 

8 units

Cincy -2.5

 

I just don't think coming out a bye week that Cincy will lay an egg this week. CJ and TJ will absolutely tear up the KC secondary and do what they want. In fact I don't even think this game will be close, 8 units for me.

 

5 units

Cardinals team over 23

Redskins team over 19

Bengals team over 23

 

3 units

Browns/Dolphins under 45

 

I have been bad with NFL o/u's this year but Cleo Lemon vs. Derek Anderson does nothing for me. And Jamal Lewis is out. If I lose this one I think it will be because of about 10 turnovers. Just think this is a good play.

 

1 unit plays

Chargers -10

Eagles -4

Saints +6

Redskins +3

[jkg31885 0]

Houston +6.5

wash +3

Arizona -4.5

NE -6

Tennesse moneyline

[Bouve 0]

Good Luck, I'm still trying to sort this mess out in the NFL. It looks like you like Miami alot this week, with your two bets and one of them being a moneyline. I'll admit Ronnie Brown is going to give Cleveland trouble and there is no Jamal Lewis to return the favor. I don't know enough about the backup Wright to say whether he'll chew up alot of yards or not. Derrick Anderson is Cleveland's early success story as he is ranked with the 5th highest fantasy points of all qbs on yahoo. Originally I was on Cleveland, but I could also see Cleveland losing this game as they are not yet a model of consistency. I see you like St. Louis +9. I can't figure out anything good to say about them except that they are overdue and the Ravens have no passing game.

 

If I can get any of the winless teams to be only a 5 point or under dog then I will take them on the ML. They have to win sometime I figure. St Louis and New Orleans are too high this week for me to take them.

[swirvenirvin 25]

Maurice Jones-Drew (Jaguars) Will He Score a Touchdown - Must Play

Yes

No 10/14/07(13:00 ET)

Yes +115

 

 

easy focking $$$$

[JT 137]

NFL YTD 7-5

 

The combination of the NFL's uncertainty and the sites unreliability on Sunday's has really cut down my NFL picks. Only a couple I like this week, so here goes:

 

Arizona -4.5 vs Carolina: Carr has been downgraded to questionable, which means the possibility of Vinnie Testaverde starting at QB for Carolina. The Panthers have enough offensive issues with their starters. Arizona is feeling good about themselves right now, starting to show signs of a running game. I still have some reservations, as I believe that Warner will be increasingly less effective as teams have the opportunity to game plan for him, and the inevitable hits he'll take have their toll on him. But for this week, I'll go with the Cards.

 

Kansas City +3 vs Cincinnati: 75% of the public is on Cincy, which is my first red flag. That's an awful big percentage on a team that can't defend anything: not the run (#30), not the pass (#28). They're truly awful. KC can at least play the run, and Huard appears to be able to play. Yes, the Chiefs rolled over last week. That'll happen with below-average teams. But Cincy's not appreciably better. They do have the bye week in their favor, but I think the Chiefs keep this close.

 

Cleveland -4 vs Miami: Much of what I said above about Cincy could apply to the Browns as well. The difference is, they're at home, and can stack the box and see if Cleo Lemon can beat them throwing the ball. Miami's pass defense is ranked #3, but I think you have to look beyond the stats. Only three teams have had fewer passes attempted against them than the Fins (Jacksonville, New Orleans, Denver). Both the Jags and Saints have played one fewer game, and the Broncos are so terrible against the run that few teams feel the need to throw much. That's my take on Miami (#31 vs run) as well. Ronnie Brown should have a decent day, but the Browns big play nature wins this game.

 

Add Houston +6.5 @ Jax

 

 

Good luck to all!

 

2-2

 

NFL YTD 9-7

 

The certain Warner injury occurred even quicker than expected. I knew better than to play vs Jacksonville, which looks like the best team in the NFL not located in New England or Indianapolis.

 

See you next week.

[GiantsRule 0]

Seattle's done in this game, but they're at home and should look to make this respectable.

 

2nd half Seattle -6.5 - 3 units

 

Essentially, I have Seahawks +11 for the game. If they don't end the game within single digits of New Orleans, they should be contracted. Then again, I did bet on it ...

 

Good luck to all!

[GiantsRule 0]

Seattle's done in this game, but they're at home and should look to make this respectable.

 

2nd half Seattle -6.5 - 3 units

 

Essentially, I have Seahawks +11 for the game. If they don't end the game within single digits of New Orleans, they should be contracted. Then again, I did bet on it ... :wall:

 

Good luck to all!

 

Whew! Sweat it out for a quarter and a half, but ended up with a nice TD by Burleson and the XP to get the win.

 

How much would it have sucked if I didn't get that TD/PAT? Not only did I cling to Seattle -6.5 for the first half, I had Over 43 for the game. I made the mistake many gamblers make and decided to chalk it up as a win. Fortunately, cashed both with that score, the only one of the half.

 

On the downside, my Survivor Pool is done for me in just the 6th week. Didn't like what I saw out of Baltimore so I passed up on them for Seattle at home against a supposedly hapless Saints team. Oh well. My wife is still in it so at least I can root for her. Perhaps she'll throw me a few bucks!

[GiantsRule 0]

I've been getting killed on Monday nights, but like a true degenerate, I can't stay away.

 

I know my Giants. I know what they're capable of and when they can surprise. I also know when they're pencilled in for a win and are more likely to fall right on their faces. This is one of those times.

 

Atlanta has done very well vs. the Giants, particularly when they have played backup QBs against them. Doug Johnson beat the Giants at Giants Stadium. Kurt freakin Kittner, the white version of Spergon Wynn, beat the Giants at Giants Stadium. Now, it's Joey Ballgame's turn...and he gets to play from the Dome. Everyone thinks the Giants will roll but they'll struggle a lot more than people think. And it's because of one of their biggest and most underrated nemesis(es?): Warrick Dunn.

 

Dunn has smoked NYG throughout his career. In 7 games, he logged 117 carries for 630 yards (90 YPG; 5.4 YPC). Sick numbers for the minuitive back against a supposed strong defense. Why has Dunn performed so well against the Giants? Because no matter how good the G-Men's defense appears, if you can find a way to get beyond 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, you're in the clear. The tackling becomes non-existent and players (like Johnson & Kittner) find holes were there aren't any. Dunn is the type of shifty back to break a tackle or two and get a long run.

 

That's why I'm jumping on Warrick Dunn total rushing yards Over 54.5 (-115). He won't get more than 12-15 carries, but he shouldn't need too many to get about 60-65 yards. Norwood has yet to make a dent in his playing time and I don't see the Giants stopping Dunn from ripping off nice chunks of yardage on Falcon drives. I'm hoping that Dunn breaks off one nice run for 25-30 yards early and then will only need a handful of "3 yards and a cloud of dust" runs. I'd like to get this bet in the bag as early as possible so I can start rooting my boys to victory.

 

Good luck to all!

[Bouve 0]

I'm all in tonight. I have everything left in my account riding on tonights game. If I lose then I reload for next week and start fresh. I started with 50 units and am down to my last 24.

 

New York Giants -2.5 1st half 6 units.

New York Giants team total over 24 6 units.

New York Giants -3.5 for the game 6 units

New York Giants -6 for the game 6 units.

 

Eli don't fail me now.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

I'm all in tonight. I have everything left in my account riding on tonights game. If I lose then I reload for next week and start fresh. I started with 50 units and am down to my last 24.

 

New York Giants -2.5 1st half 6 units.

New York Giants team total over 24 6 units.

New York Giants -3.5 for the game 6 units

New York Giants -6 for the game 6 units.

 

Eli don't fail me now.

 

Same here basically. I lost all 6 of my nonposted bets yesterday which were just a bunch of teasers and parlays, so it doesn't even make good fade material. You'd think the Giants would come out on fire. Brandon Jacobs is back, Eli isn't hurting, and the defense is showing signs of life. Let's just hope this isn't one of those Monday night nightmarish games.

 

Giants moneyline for me

 

 

Good Luck to all of us Giants' backers!

[cyclone24 1,838]

Same here basically. I lost all 6 of my nonposted bets yesterday which were just a bunch of teasers and parlays, so it doesn't even make good fade material. You'd think the Giants would come out on fire. Brandon Jacobs is back, Eli isn't hurting, and the defense is showing signs of life. Let's just hope this isn't one of those Monday night nightmarish games.

 

Giants moneyline for me

Good Luck to all of us Giants' backers!

 

 

Yep me too. Made big $ on the Pats/ Dallas game and lost most of that Sunday night.

 

Fvck it...im all in....Giants -4....every dime a i got in the account.

 

Cmon you fvcking dirtballs!!

[OGAR 0]

All- in on a draw only??~?~

 

Thats what I call betting on a road fav.

 

Being all in with both ends open on a straight or 4 to a flush. You have a decent chance to win but you certainly aren't favored to win.

 

 

 

 

Home field on national tv is a wierd deal.

 

I haven't bet nfl games for couple of weeks. (other than New England that I called my momma and told her to bet the last 3 weeks in a row).

 

 

Lines are too sharp, imo!! Plus, I can't find the time to research or watch as many games as I feel I need. Thus, haven't done well.

 

 

 

Thats just my thoughts. Home dogs were king in CFB this weekend.

[ghost168 0]

Anyone like the game tonight??? I kind of like the over and NYG.

[phillybear 365]

Overall NFL YTD: 24-17-2; -4.2 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 6-9-1; -10.35 units

Teasers: 6-1; +4.8 units

 

Sunday

 

For 3 units each

Minnesota (+4.5) WINNER

Philadelphia (-3.5) WINNER

Tampa Bay (-2.5)@-115 WINNER

Washington (+3.5)@-120 WINNER

Arizona (-5) LOSER

Dallas (+5.5) LOSER

 

10 pt Teaser for 1 unit LOSER

Kansas City (+13)

Houston (+16.5)

Baltimore (+1)

 

Good luck to all.

 

Overall NFL YTD: 28-20-2; +0.0 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 10-11-1; -6.15 units

Teasers: 6-2; +3.6 units

 

Bounced back a bit yesterday, got lucky on buying points on a couple of games, as I hardly ever buy points. Weird. I just checked my account. The last 7 days, counting every sport and every bet, I'm up 25 bucks. That's a whole lot of nothing.

 

Passing tonight. See you folks in the college thread on Thursday.

[McPaul 0]

what do you guys think of Eli getting over 19.5 completions?

[Bouve-Rules 0]

First Half Play: Atlanta +3 hooked with the under 21.5.

 

Purely entertainment purposes - if this was a noon game on Sunday there is no way I would play it.

 

Let's go Michael Vick!!

 

Good luck fellas.

[EAwer 1]

1 unit ATL +4.5 -103

1 unit ATL +190

[Bouve 0]

I'm all in tonight. I have everything left in my account riding on tonights game. If I lose then I reload for next week and start fresh. I started with 50 units and am down to my last 24.

 

New York Giants -2.5 1st half 6 units.

New York Giants team total over 24 6 units.

New York Giants -3.5 for the game 6 units

New York Giants -6 for the game 6 units.

 

Eli don't fail me now.

 

Eli