Should I trade Michael Turner and McGahee for the #1 overall pick?

[oban14 0]

Any advice appreciated. He originally wanted Ronnie Brown and McGahee, but I negotiated him down to McGahee and Turner.

 

TIA, and yes I strictly use the "little help" board during the season.

[Belushi 9]

I wouldn't do it. What if McFadden ends up somewhere in a RBBC? I play in two dynasty leagues and I know it's sexy to get the potential rookie sensation, but you still have to win this year. McGahee's a top 10 RB already and the addition of Cameron on offence will only help that. Turner has the skills to be a top 10 RB. And you're giving those up for a question mark. I don't see it.

 

I'd rather give up Ronnie Brown who will be a huge question mark for the coming season - coming off a major injury with no talent around him and the RB maker Cameron gone from Miami.

[jgcrawfish 232]

who else you got? Turner and McGahee seem like a pretty steep price. I'm honestly not sold on McFadden as the best back in this draft. Turner is a hard call right now, because he has the ability to be something special. Without knowing the rest of your RB it's hard to say.

[Dr. Octopus 0]

If I rember correctly from your last post I think you were planning on keeping the San Diego defence and that's why you "needed" to make the trade.

 

If so I suggest you keep your RBs and drop the D into the pool. RB depth is important in a dynasty and all of your backs have the potential to be better than the #1 rookie.

[jgcrawfish 232]

If I rember correctly from your last post I think you were planning on keeping the San Diego defence and that's why you "needed" to make the trade.

 

If so I suggest you keep your RBs and drop the D into the pool. RB depth is important in a dynasty and all of your backs have the potential to be better than the #1 rookie.

 

if Dr. Oct is right, then he's dead on...keep the RB, jettison the D.

[oban14 0]

if Dr. Oct is right, then he's dead on...keep the RB, jettison the D.

 

It's a little more complicated than that. First thing to understand about this league is that we have a pretty flukey defensive scoring system, and sacks, DTDs/STTDs are huge. To put this in perspective, the San Diego Defense scored 318 points in our league last year, and they had at least 4 awful games. LaDanian Tomlinson scored 385. In 2005, when the Bears had both a good defense and Hester going crazy, they would often score 40 points in any given week. My point is that having a great defense is like having a great starting running back in our league. Having a very good defense that isn't in the top 3 is a significant drop off, more so than you'll find in most leagues.

 

Adding to the dilemma is that we can keep 9 players each year. I want to keep Brees, Bush, Ronnie Brown, Michael Turner, McGahee, AJ, Fitzgerald, Colston, Roy Williams, Antonio Gates, the Chargers defense, and Vernon Davis. That means that three of these have to go.

 

If I kept Turner and McGahee, I'd have to drop the Chargers as well as two other players. Roy Williams' value is pretty low right now, and I have been unable to trade him. I like Brees and would prefer to hold onto him. Vernon Davis probably isn't one of the top 90 players out there and will have to get cut whether I make this trade or not. And because we start two RBs and three WRs each week, it makes more sense to keep four WRs than four RBs, even though I wish I could keep four of each.

 

So now it becomes a number game. As I'm drafting 1.9, the Chargers and anyone else I cut would be long gone. Trading two RBs for one (McFadden) lets me keep 9 important players, gives me the first pick out of all the rookies, and effectively buys me one more roster spot. I know I'm overpaying for this draft pick, but because I have 12 players to keep and only 9 keeper slots, I'm willing to do it. Any other trade I'd make would be for a mid round draft choice (the #2 pick holder usually wants a lot more compensation than I'm willing to pay) and I'd still have to move at least one of my backs and probably Roy Williams to get it done.

 

As for the players, I think McGahee is going to have an outstanding year. I've had him since the inception of this league a few years ago, and he's been a decent back. I think Cameron will get the most out of him, and I would rather trade Brown, but this guy is holding fast on McGahee. I've been big on Turner (drafted him in the third round last year because of his impending UFA status) and still own him in another keeper league. That said, he has looked good but not spectacular when I saw him play, and seeing Sproles outplay him makes me feel not so bad about trading him. I still expect him to land somewhere where he is the #1 guy and then time will tell how he does carrying the whole load. A lot can happen with McFadden. My worst nightmare is that he gets drafted by Miami, making both him and Brown worth much less in the short term, but you never know - maybe Jerry Jones will actually trade MB3 and somehow get McFadden. It's a huge unknown at the moment but by the time we have our draft (in late August) I'll know which rookie RBs are in the best situation, which have lit it up in training camp, which are hurt, etc.

 

This isn't an easy call, which is why I'm asking for advice. I hope this post helps clarify things... Thanks to anyone who read the book I just wrote, and for all of your input.

[WFactor 0]

Defenses and Special Teams change every year...I wouldn't keep a D even if they are significant...Defenses are inconsistent, and you'd be better off keeping a stud skills player and picking up Ds based on matchups. Definitely keep all your RBs if possible, because a RB is worth gold in trades late in the year when people find out they drafted busts. Keep Turner and McGahee...Turner landing in a good spot=big potential...McFadden has potential, and because of Peterson's exploits this year, people will be taking him way too early...McGahee will be solid...He had an easy schedule this year, but did well against tough defenses too...Dunno why you need to keep Gates AND Vernon. Just pick Gates and be happy you have the best TE...Good luck!

[oban14 0]

Defenses and Special Teams change every year...I wouldn't keep a D even if they are significant...Defenses are inconsistent, and you'd be better off keeping a stud skills player and picking up Ds based on matchups. Definitely keep all your RBs if possible, because a RB is worth gold in trades late in the year when people find out they drafted busts. Keep Turner and McGahee...Turner landing in a good spot=big potential...McFadden has potential, and because of Peterson's exploits this year, people will be taking him way too early...McGahee will be solid...He had an easy schedule this year, but did well against tough defenses too...Dunno why you need to keep Gates AND Vernon. Just pick Gates and be happy you have the best TE...Good luck!

 

You guys are really clouding me with some doubt. The only reason I would keep VD was because I was considering trading Gates instead of one of these guys. Now I really don't know what to do.

[Raider 84 29]

I'd keep Turner and give him Brown. The Dolphins might be trying to get a rb and it takes at least two good years to come back from an ACL tear.

[Dr. Octopus 0]

It's a little more complicated than that. First thing to understand about this league is that we have a pretty flukey defensive scoring system, and sacks, DTDs/STTDs are huge. To put this in perspective, the San Diego Defense scored 318 points in our league last year, and they had at least 4 awful games. LaDanian Tomlinson scored 385. In 2005, when the Bears had both a good defense and Hester going crazy, they would often score 40 points in any given week. My point is that having a great defense is like having a great starting running back in our league. Having a very good defense that isn't in the top 3 is a significant drop off, more so than you'll find in most leagues.

 

Adding to the dilemma is that we can keep 9 players each year. I want to keep Brees, Bush, Ronnie Brown, Michael Turner, McGahee, AJ, Fitzgerald, Colston, Roy Williams, Antonio Gates, the Chargers defense, and Vernon Davis. That means that three of these have to go.

 

If I kept Turner and McGahee, I'd have to drop the Chargers as well as two other players. Roy Williams' value is pretty low right now, and I have been unable to trade him. I like Brees and would prefer to hold onto him. Vernon Davis probably isn't one of the top 90 players out there and will have to get cut whether I make this trade or not. And because we start two RBs and three WRs each week, it makes more sense to keep four WRs than four RBs, even though I wish I could keep four of each.

 

So now it becomes a number game. As I'm drafting 1.9, the Chargers and anyone else I cut would be long gone. Trading two RBs for one (McFadden) lets me keep 9 important players, gives me the first pick out of all the rookies, and effectively buys me one more roster spot. I know I'm overpaying for this draft pick, but because I have 12 players to keep and only 9 keeper slots, I'm willing to do it. Any other trade I'd make would be for a mid round draft choice (the #2 pick holder usually wants a lot more compensation than I'm willing to pay) and I'd still have to move at least one of my backs and probably Roy Williams to get it done.

 

As for the players, I think McGahee is going to have an outstanding year. I've had him since the inception of this league a few years ago, and he's been a decent back. I think Cameron will get the most out of him, and I would rather trade Brown, but this guy is holding fast on McGahee. I've been big on Turner (drafted him in the third round last year because of his impending UFA status) and still own him in another keeper league. That said, he has looked good but not spectacular when I saw him play, and seeing Sproles outplay him makes me feel not so bad about trading him. I still expect him to land somewhere where he is the #1 guy and then time will tell how he does carrying the whole load. A lot can happen with McFadden. My worst nightmare is that he gets drafted by Miami, making both him and Brown worth much less in the short term, but you never know - maybe Jerry Jones will actually trade MB3 and somehow get McFadden. It's a huge unknown at the moment but by the time we have our draft (in late August) I'll know which rookie RBs are in the best situation, which have lit it up in training camp, which are hurt, etc.

 

This isn't an easy call, which is why I'm asking for advice. I hope this post helps clarify things... Thanks to anyone who read the book I just wrote, and for all of your input.

 

Even with warped defensive scoring it doesn't change my mind. Defenses are volitile form a fantasy standpoint. You really think that even in a nine player keeper league the San Diego Defense is not going to last until pick 1.9?

 

As I said in the last thread if I'm going to trade two solid young RBs I want a "sure thing" upgrade like Jackson, Addai or maybe even Gore, but McFadden would be a little too risky in my book. Its not a crazy deal based on your circumsances but certainly a risky move.

[Lab 0]

I understand your desire to keep SD-defense. I am in a somewhat similar league where defenses score about 2-3 times as much as RBs, and we start two Ds too, so you cannot simply play matchups during the year. In that league, about half of the first-round picks are defenses (basically any top-10 defenses that teams don't hold over as keepers). I don't have a rock-solid answer to your question, but here's how you might try framing it: Try comparing the value of each keeper to the value of what you'd get in the draft instead. For example, if you're drafting at 1.9, try to guess what defense you might get there to replace SD. Then, gauge how much better SD is than that defense. Do the same for each of your other keeper options. This might require some deep thinking because you will have to think about what replacement players you'll get in later rounds. For example, you probably would not pick a TE at 1.9, so you'll have to think about what replacement TE you might get if you drop Gates. Once you've thought through all that, you might have a better view on how your keepers compare to draftable players. I guess a lot of this depends on who you think others might keep/drop.

 

I don't have a specific view since I don't know how different positions stack up against one another in scoring. Assuming they all score roughly equal (the top 5 RBs score about as much as the top 5 Ds, or WRs, or QBs), I'd lean toward keeping Brees, AJ, Fitz, Colston, Gates, SD, and the best 3 RBs you can get. Those QBs/WRs/TE/D are likely in the top-5 or top-10 in their positions this season. Among your current RBs, the best 3 seem to be Bush, Brown, and McGahee. If you can package one of those guys with Turner, Williams, and VD to get a better RB, then do it. Packaging McGahee+Turner for McFadden does not sound so good to me, because McFadden's not clearly going to be better than McGahee in 2008. You are right that it is a numbers game, and you have lots of good extra keepers -- tie them all into one big package and trade them for the best RB you can get (probably to the one team with the weakest set of keepers who is thinking about keeping some mediocre players).

 

Hope this helps.

[oban14 0]

I just thought I'd take a moment to thank you all for your input and let you know that I went forward with the trade. I gave up McGahee and Turner for the #1 overall pick in our draft. What ultimately drew me to make the trade was the belief that neither Turner or McGahee will ever be a top 5 back, while McFadden has that chance. I hope I can bump this thread in 9 or 10 months and show off how brilliant I was, but I understand if someone else ends up bumping it and yelling "I told you so!" right at me.

 

Anyway, this will be my team for next year:

 

QB: Brees

RB: Ronnie Brown

RB: Darren McFadden

RB: Reggie Bush

WR: Andre Johnson

WR: Larry Fitzgerald

WR: Marques Colston

WR: Roy Williams

TE: Antonio Gates

D: SD Chargers

K: Yet to be determined

 

And an array of backups yet to be determined as well. In any case, I'm happy to have a young, talented team and hope I pick the right rookie when the draft rolls around in August.

 

Thanks again and good luck in all your leagues.