Brandon Marshall

[Lab 0]

The 7/24/08 FFToday projections table lists Brandon Marshall as the #1 WR in PPR leagues with a projected stat line of 107 receptions for 1450 yards and 10 TDs. While his 2007 numbers were great (102/1325/7), this is a pretty serious projected increase for Marshall: 5% increase in receptions, 9% increase in yards, and 43% increase in TDs. If Marshall get suspended for even one game, these projections will be very hard to reach. But even if he gets to play all 16 games, aren't these projections a little high? Do others think he really has that much potential?

 

Don't get me wrong: I have him on a dynasty team, and I WANT these projections to be true. I just don't know if they're realistic. If most people think these projections are on the mark (and I don't) then maybe now is the time for me to trade Marshall.

 

All thoughts appreciated.

[MTSkiBum 1,594]

I think marshall is going to be lucky to break the top 12. I think marshall's stats were over inflated last season because he lead the league in targets. That is not something that he is going to duplicate. Plus even when he was healthy for a short while this offseason he was being lazy. Cutler called Marshall out for his offseason work ethic. Then marshall got injured. So cutler and marshall have had absolutely no time this offseason to develop timing. Nothing leads me to believe marshall is going to have a higher number of yards or TD's per target, and with a very realistic shot of him having less targets, i would put marshall in the 15-18 range in non ppr, and 12-14 in ppr leagues, and i believe he isnt going to be suspended, if he is suspended my projections would of course drop lower.

[dingo37 0]

Seems high to me too. With the projections they gave Cutler though someone has to be on the other end.

[Lesman 1]

I'm a Denver homer and I have him as a keeper, but I think he is vastly overrated this year. I don't see Marshall's targets per game being quite what they were last year. I expect the Denver offense to be a little more balanced this year between recievers. I do however see his TD opportunities going up, and he should be much better in the red zone this year. I'm not worried about team chemistry or his timing with Cutler. They developed good timing just fine on the fly last year. Ya, Cutler called him out, but Marshall needed to hear that, and from what I've read, he took no offense to it. He's got Rod Smith as his personal Mentor now and hopefully Rod can whip him into shape on and off the field as well. I see Marshall being suspended for 2 games based on his arrests (no convictions). If he's convicted of the DUI then add 2 more to that. Even with the likely possibility that he will miss 2-4 games, I still think he will crack the top ten, but not much higher than that.

[coyote-kid 0]

This is the million dollar because of where he can be drafted, he could be a very nice value pick.

I am leaning a little more in his favor but not sold yet.

[onejayhawk 3]

I am seeing talk that the suspension could be severe, as in four games on up. The Union will probably peel that back a bit, but the guys has three arrests this year. It aint going to be pretty.

 

J

[Big_Pete 0]

I think marshall is going to be lucky to break the top 12. I think marshall's stats were over inflated last season because he lead the league in targets. That is not something that he is going to duplicate. Plus even when he was healthy for a short while this offseason he was being lazy. Cutler called Marshall out for his offseason work ethic. Then marshall got injured. So cutler and marshall have had absolutely no time this offseason to develop timing. Nothing leads me to believe marshall is going to have a higher number of yards or TD's per target, and with a very realistic shot of him having less targets, i would put marshall in the 15-18 range in non ppr, and 12-14 in ppr leagues, and i believe he isnt going to be suspended, if he is suspended my projections would of course drop lower.

I have no clue what Brandon Marshall you are talking about, but the Broncos WR Brandon Marshall worked his ass off all offseason with Jay Cutler and Tony Scheffler in Atlanta to work on chemistry and routes and timing so that all 3 can take the next step up in the league.

 

http://www.denverbroncos.com/page.php?id=3...mp;storyID=7903

The injury is a bit of a set-back for Marshall, who was off to a great start this offseason working out with Jay Cutler and Tony Scheffler.

"I was stronger than ever down there," Marshall said of his workouts in Atlanta. "I wanted to go down there and just redevelop my body. Since college I have been worrying about speed, speed, speed and I kind of forgot about my body. I wanted to build my body back up. I got to 240 pounds ... I put 350 pounds on the bench and I was able to bench that five times, as strong as I have ever been. I was working hard and it was a blessing to be down there with Tony and Jay just building some chemistry."

 

I am seeing talk that the suspension could be severe, as in four games on up. The Union will probably peel that back a bit, but the guys has three arrests this year. It aint going to be pretty.

 

J

Agreed. Adam Schefter said he expects 4-8 games. Hopefully that get's whacked in half to 2-4 by the union/good conduct, but still. If you take away 1/4 of the season, you might as well take away EASILY 1/4 of the projected stats. Although, Marshall will be good and pissed off, so he might blow up that much more.

Because of the pending suspension, I'd stay away from him as your WR1 and pick him up as a WR2 or WR3, and I'm the biggest Broncos homer you'll ever come across. There is just too much uncertainty about his suspension to warrant a high pick on him or to warrant a true WR1 spot. Now, if you get him as your #2, then when he comes back, your team is golden, cause you'll in a sense have 2 dynamite WR1's... hooray for the lucky bastard who steals Marshall in the mid rounds.

[big D 0]

Barring suspension...there's no reason he can't hit those projections.

[the_risen_demon 0]

A couple of posters mentioned that he will not see the number of targets that he did last year, though they didn't offer much argument why. Denver hasn't changed offensive scheme. The loss of Henry would seemingly, if anything, shift more emphasis to the passing game. The additions at wide receiver are not likely to become the focus of the offense. While it's a sucker's bet to project any player to lead the league in anything, I don't see anything that makes me think he will see a significant drop in targets in 2008.

 

The potential suspension does loom over his trade value, but keep this in mind. Even if he were suspended for 4 games (which seems excessive for a man who has not been convicted of anything), and we cut his projected stats by 1/4 (something on the order of 80/1100/7), he is still far more valuable than another receiver who produces the same stats over 16 games. Marshall would be scoring 19.3 pts/game. The other theoretical receiver would score 14.5 pts/game. If you had to leave an active roster spot open while Marshall is suspended they'd be equal, but you'll be able to plug in your WR4, who should still be able to contribute for you.

[Lab 0]

Barring suspension...there's no reason he can't hit those projections.

 

Really?!? Because that's the question I am focused on -- whether these projections make sense absent suspension. The projections have him getting more receptions than every other WR in the league (by an 8% margin too, since the next highest projected receptions is only 99). The projections also have him hitting more receiving yards than every other WR in the league. I agree that Marshall is very good, and easily has the skill-set to be a top-5 WR. But is it realistic to think he will be the #1 WR in the league by a pretty large margin? I know someone's gotta be #1, but Marshall?!? Not CJ, not Fitz, not Braylon, not Moss, not TO, not Reggie Wayne, not A-Jax? But Marshall?

 

I guess when I think about it more, he's got more upside potential than lots of the other top WRs. There's no one good competing with him for catches, his QB is very good with a big arm, Denver's defense is weak so games can turn into shootouts, Denver's RB situation is dicey, he's got lots of size and speed. Maybe only Andre Johnson is in as good a situation, and FFToday has him ranked #2. He's high-risk-high-reward, but ... wow, maybe I'm convincing myself that Marshall could very well be the #1 WR (assuming he's not suspended).

[the_risen_demon 0]

Really?!? Because that's the question I am focused on -- whether these projections make sense absent suspension. The projections have him getting more receptions than every other WR in the league (by an 8% margin too, since the next highest projected receptions is only 99). The projections also have him hitting more receiving yards than every other WR in the league. I agree that Marshall is very good, and easily has the skill-set to be a top-5 WR. But is it realistic to think he will be the #1 WR in the league by a pretty large margin? I know someone's gotta be #1, but Marshall?!? Not CJ, not Fitz, not Braylon, not Moss, not TO, not Reggie Wayne, not A-Jax? But Marshall?

 

If we'd had this conversation last year and FFToday had picked Moss to lead the league in fantasy points, we'd be having the same conversation. Moss?!? Not TO, Wayne, Fitz, etc...

 

That's not to say that Marshall will lead the league in catches and yards, but FFToday made their prediction and (barring suspension) I don't see it as any more outlandish than Moss at this time last year.

[VaTerp 0]

If we'd had this conversation last year and FFToday had picked Moss to lead the league in fantasy points, we'd be having the same conversation. Moss?!? Not TO, Wayne, Fitz, etc...

 

That's not to say that Marshall will lead the league in catches and yards, but FFToday made their prediction and (barring suspension) I don't see it as any more outlandish than Moss at this time last year.

 

I see what you're saying to a point but I disagree with the use of Moss in the analogy.

 

Moss had proven himself to be an elite FF WR for the better part of a decade. Sure the consensus was that he had lost a step and very few projected him to finish as the #1WR but there were a few here that predicted a return to form playing with Brady.

 

Marshall has a lot to prove even without the looming suspension. So I think projecting him as the #1WR in all of FF is a bit more outlandish than Moss at this time last year. A better analogy would be Steve Smith in 2005.

[VaTerp 0]

Apparently Marshall has not been working as hard as Big Pete thinks this off season. I love this guys talent and potential but there are A LOT of red flags popping up with him.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8...mp;confirm=true

[onejayhawk 3]

Agreed. Adam Schefter said he expects 4-8 games. Hopefully that get's whacked in half to 2-4 by the union/good conduct, but still. If you take away 1/4 of the season, you might as well take away EASILY 1/4 of the projected stats. Although, Marshall will be good and pissed off, so he might blow up that much more.

Because of the pending suspension, I'd stay away from him as your WR1 and pick him up as a WR2 or WR3, and I'm the biggest Broncos homer you'll ever come across. There is just too much uncertainty about his suspension to warrant a high pick on him or to warrant a true WR1 spot. Now, if you get him as your #2, then when he comes back, your team is golden, cause you'll in a sense have 2 dynamite WR1's... hooray for the lucky bastard who steals Marshall in the mid rounds.

If the Jared Allen situation is any guide, I am guessing 6-8, since his situation is more agravated. That will get reduced to 3-4 games.

 

In general, I am not thrilled with the Broncos. The mainstay of the team, the OL, has gone round the bend, much like the Chiefs did about 3 years ago. And Denver doesnt have a Larry Johnson. Cutler may break out, but has not yet. I can see them finishing last in this division.

 

J

[mobb_deep 917]

No disrespect to the FFToday staff, but I usually take the exact opposite route of whoever they project. Last year Marc Bulger was projected to be the #2 QB. I avoided him like the plague. Same goes for other equally hyped players like Alexander (#5 RB), L. Johnson (#6 RB), Evans (#8 WR), Driver (#10 WR), etc. This year they have guys like Marshall, McGahee, Rodgers, and R. Williams projected much higher than I see them finishing. Those are all guys I'll be avoiding in the draft.

 

On the flip, Colston, Gore, Plax, and Campbell are value picks, using inverse FFToday projections. These are 4 guys I will be targeting in many drafts. Ofcourse none of this is an exact science, but most of the guys they projected really high last season are projected MUCH lower this year. Larry Johnson and Frank Gore's situation have not changed too dramatically from last season, right? Now they're ranked #13 (LJ #6 last year) and #19 (Gore #4 last year) respectively. Do they really think they'll finish there, or is this just sour grapes? The same trend is noted in Bulger (#19), Evans (#24), Driver (30), etc. etc.

 

Just something to think about.

[jdon 28]

A couple of posters mentioned that he will not see the number of targets that he did last year, though they didn't offer much argument why. Denver hasn't changed offensive scheme. The loss of Henry would seemingly, if anything, shift more emphasis to the passing game. The additions at wide receiver are not likely to become the focus of the offense. While it's a sucker's bet to project any player to lead the league in anything, I don't see anything that makes me think he will see a significant drop in targets in 2008.

 

The potential suspension does loom over his trade value, but keep this in mind. Even if he were suspended for 4 games (which seems excessive for a man who has not been convicted of anything), and we cut his projected stats by 1/4 (something on the order of 80/1100/7), he is still far more valuable than another receiver who produces the same stats over 16 games. Marshall would be scoring 19.3 pts/game. The other theoretical receiver would score 14.5 pts/game. If you had to leave an active roster spot open while Marshall is suspended they'd be equal, but you'll be able to plug in your WR4, who should still be able to contribute for you.

 

fwiw Marshall averaged 10.6 points per game last year... Moss had 17.6. Only Owens and AJ also had over 15. So I really don't know what you are talking about.

 

Also, to clarify the dude had 170 targets last year, that is a lot to replicate... his projections are ridiculous. Not saying he isn't a stud, just saying that his projection is crazy...

[danish1 0]

One more thing to keep in mind is whether his arm injury will affect him or not. DBs will definitely be gunning for it and his injury was pretty gruesome - he tore an artery, vein, nerves and ligaments!

[the_risen_demon 0]

fwiw Marshall averaged 10.6 points per game last year... Moss had 17.6. Only Owens and AJ also had over 15. So I really don't know what you are talking about.

 

Also, to clarify the dude had 170 targets last year, that is a lot to replicate... his projections are ridiculous. Not saying he isn't a stud, just saying that his projection is crazy...

 

The assumption of the original poster is that this is a PPR league. I think the stats you are quoting would be from a non-PPR league. In such a format, Marshall scored 17.3 pts/game last year, and Moss had over 24.

[mambokings 0]

Projections: 107 receptions for 1450 yards and 10 TDs

2007: 102 receptions for 1325 yards and 7 TDs

 

...do you honestly think that's a reach? Last year, Cutler missed this kid on several TD opportunities. Add in those misses, and he's right there. I wouldn't stress over such a minor differential.