***Official Week 7 College Betting Thread***

[dmaidlow73 0]

Once again the games start early this week with Troy -3.5 at Florida Atlantic. Likely won't be playing this game, but will look at it closer.

 

Thursday night features a good ACC matchup. Wake is giving 2.5 to Clemson. The game is at Wake, thus Vegas seems to think that these two teams are essentially equal. In the past few years Clemson has beaten up on Wake. LY at Clemson the score was 44-10, I believe, and the year before 27-10. What I see happening in this game is Clemson running the ball early and often. Wake is giving up almost 150 rushing yards per game (this # is somewhat skewed due to the Navy game) and I see Davis and Spiller putting up big numbers on the ground. And, when Wake decides to crowd the line Clemson has a QB capable of putting the ball up. This year hasn't been stellar for QB Harper, but we all saw last year that he is a solid QB.

 

On the other side of the ball Clemson can be run on. Unfortunately for Wake this isn't their strength. They only rush for 85 yards a game. I think Riley Skinner is a pretty good QB, but if they can't run the ball I think Clemson will pressure him into making some poor throws.

 

My concerns for this game are straight forward. Clemson has not lived up to the hype. The talent is definitely there, but they just need to put it together. This game will go a long way to deciding the ACC championship. My other concern is that Wake is very well coached and plays very smart, fundamental football.

With that being said, I think the matchup here definitely favors Clemson. In my eyes they should be favored and I see a straight up win for the Tigers.

 

Clemson +2.5 4 units

[big easy 0]

I started a week 7 thread before I saw yours, dmaidlow73. I'm deleting it and putting my info in yours. Let's get em this week. BOL

 

YTD 39-30 (11-8 BB) +12 units

Last Week 9-5 (3-2 BB) +5 units

 

Got back in the swing of things last week, but Grind was right about Tennessee. You just can't count on them one way or another. I think I will take his advice and just stay far away from them as favorites, They should have blown away NIU with better players everywhere on the field. You live and learn. Other than that I came away satisfied with my week 6 performance.

 

4 units-

Miami -14

 

3 units-

Oklahoma -6.5

Troy -3 WIN

LSU +4.5

 

2 units-

South Carolina +1

Oregon State -30

UL Lafayette -21

 

1 unit-

Utah -23

[dmaidlow73 0]

I started a week 7 thread before I saw yours, dmaidlow73. I'm deleting it and putting my info in yours. Let's get em this week. BOL

 

YTD 39-30 (11-8 BB) +12 units

Last Week 9-5 (3-2 BB) +5 units

 

Got back in the swing of things last week, but Grind was right about Tennessee. You just can't count on them one way or another. I think I will take his advise and just stay far away from them as favorites, They should have blown away NIU with better players everywhere on the field. You live and learn. Other than that I came away satisfied with my week 6 performance.

 

4 units-

Miami -14

 

3 units-

Oklahoma -6.5

Troy -3

LSU +4.5

 

2 units-

South Carolina +1

Oregon State -30

UL Lafayette -21

 

1 unit-

Utah -23

 

Sorry about that Big Easy. I have to look closer at all of the games, but the other early play that looks good is your Troy pick. That line seems low, doesn't it? Troy definitely has more talent than FAU. I think they could win by 10-14 points. With that being said, we all know how home dogs do during the week. Can you expound on why you like Troy here. Thanks.

[big easy 0]

Sorry about that Big Easy. I have to look closer at all of the games, but the other early play that looks good is your Troy pick. That line seems low, doesn't it? Troy definitely has more talent than FAU. I think they could win by 10-14 points. With that being said, we all know how home dogs do during the week. Can you expound on why you like Troy here. Thanks.

 

No problem at all, buddy. The line on tomorrow's game definitely seems low to me. I would have set it around 7.5 or so and would still bet Troy. Troy is coming off a bye week after two very tough road games against Ohio St. and Oklahoma St. They gave Ohio St all they could handle on the road all the way up until the 4th quarter with the score at 14-10 before yielding 2 tds late. The next game they ran into one of the top 3 offensive units(52.6pts/gm and 540yds/gm) in the country in OK St. They were outmatched immediately in that game and got behind early. The way OK St is putting up points on everyone there is no shame in that.

 

This week they will face an offensive unit that is the anti OK St in Florida Atlantic, who is the 4th worst offense in all of college football. After facing the two OSU's in back to back weeks and with the bye week having two weeks to prepare and watch film of FAU, they will think that they had died and gone to heaven. It will remind them of high school comparatively speaking. FAU's QB, Rusty Smith(48% comp, 4-7 TD-INT), has not thrown a td since the second game of the year and looked terrible last week against MTS. FAU lost a heartbreaker in that game and I believe that they will still be feeling lingering effects of that last play meltdown that will carry over to this week. Not to mention Troy beat that same MTS on the road in the first game of the year 31-17 in a game that Troy was actually up 24-3 only 1 minute into the second half. Troy QB, Jaime Hampton, has looked good both through the air(63% 235yds/gm 9tds/7ints) and carrying the ball(4.9yds/carry) with some of the teams being much stiffer competition than FAU, who is giving up 30pts/game good for #100 out of 119 teams in the country. Troy has been very good on the road in Sun Belt play the last couple of years winning 8 of 11 contests.

 

I look for Troy to cover pretty easily in this matchup and win with somewhere close to the same score that they disposed of MTS.

 

Troy 31 FAU 17

 

BTW, I read your breakdown on the Wake/Clemson game and I'm starting to like what I see now that you have me giving it a closer look. You definitely make a strong case for a play on Clemson.

[phillybear 366]

NCAA YTD: 43-36-5; +14.45 units

CFL YTD: 9-11-1; -5.7 units

NFL YTD: 22-14-1; +13.9 units

 

Tuesday

 

Troy (-3.5) for 3 units WINNER

Adding: Troy 1st H (-2.5) for 3 units WINNER

Adding: Troy 2nd H (PK)@-115 for 3 units WINNER

 

This line will go up, as Troy is getting around 70% of the action. HUGE revenge game for Troy, as they lost as a 16 point favorite to Fla Atl in their final regular season game last year to cost themselves the Sun Belt title. Troy owns the much better offense and defense. Big letdown for Fla Atl after blowing a 13 point lead late to Midd Tenn St last week. Lay the lumber.

 

Good luck to all.

[VoDZKABoY 0]

Edit: NCAA YTD: 48-41-3; +28.58

 

I really like Troy as well. Sometimes I look at common opponents played and in this instance it was Middle Tenn St. Troy won rather easily at MTSU who scored the last two TD's to make it a closer. Fla Atlantic just squeaked out a win at MTSU.

 

Troy (-4) for 3 Units WINNER

 

Edit: Fla Atlantic LOST to MTSU

[dmaidlow73 0]

I really agree with all of you that Troy is by far the more talented team. That is why I am so hesitant to take them tonight. Let me explain. First, roughly 78% of the public is on Troy tonight. That being said, the line is still at 3.5 (the opening line as well). Why hasn't this gone up to at least 4? Secondly, weekday home dogs are money in the bank this year. Is this the game where that trend begins to change?

 

Like I said, looking at the talent it seems clear cut that Troy should cover this game. I am just worried that this line is a trap.

 

With all this being said, I will either take Troy tonight or not play the game at all. Possibly going with the under, but need to research it some more.

[phillybear 366]

I really agree with all of you that Troy is by far the more talented team. That is why I am so hesitant to take them tonight. Let me explain. First, roughly 78% of the public is on Troy tonight. That being said, the line is still at 3.5 (the opening line as well). Why hasn't this gone up to at least 4? Secondly, weekday home dogs are money in the bank this year. Is this the game where that trend begins to change?

 

Like I said, looking at the talent it seems clear cut that Troy should cover this game. I am just worried that this line is a trap.

 

With all this being said, I will either take Troy tonight or not play the game at all. Possibly going with the under, but need to research it some more.

 

Before leaving the house this morning, I noticed that Troy was -4 in half the books I keep an eye on. By game time, my guess is that the line will reach -5; this one of the reasons I put it in last night. But it doesn't look like the books want to get stuck backing Fla Atlantic without trying to even out the flood of money on Troy.

[$epphori$ 118]

just like last week....Tuesday Night Fade

 

FLA +4.5 and pova 51.5

[Bouve 0]

NCAA: 43-38-2

 

Troy -4 WIN

Clemson +2.5 LOSE

Clemson/Wake Forest U43.5 WIN

Louisville -3 1st half WIN

Louisville -6.5 WIN

Texas +6 WIN

Oklahoma State +14 WIN

Notre Dame +8.5 WIN

LSU +6.5 LOSE

Georgia -12 PUSH

Cincinnati -4.5 1st half WIN

Cincinnati -7 LOSE

South Carolina -2.5 WIN

Vanderbilt -2.5 LOSE

Vanderbilt +.5 2nd half LOSE

Michigan State -1 WIN

Baylor -4.5 WIN

BYU -23.5 LOSE

 

Good Luck

[JetsFan28 0]

Florida Atlantic +4 Loser

 

Good luck to all.

[JackARoot 2]

just like last week....Tuesday Night Fade

 

FLA +4.5 and pova 51.5

 

 

$$ I think I'll tail you on FLA. Any idea what Jet thinks of this game? I've checked his thread, but nothing posted yet this week... GL

[$epphori$ 118]

$$ I think I'll tail you on FLA. Any idea what Jet thinks of this game? I've checked his thread, but nothing posted yet this week... GL

 

FLA isnt an official play for me yet...JP usuually comes on aft6er lunch time...I'll let u know when I see him around..GL2

[$epphori$ 118]

oh wait Bouve took Troy...so I am on FLA for sure...sorry Bouve......Fade Public....take the points

[$epphori$ 118]

$$ I think I'll tail you on FLA. Any idea what Jet thinks of this game? I've checked his thread, but nothing posted yet this week... GL

 

how did u do this week in NFL?

[JetsFan28 0]

One of my favorite things this week is the return of Florida Atlantic's center. Remember, even Peyton Manning drops a level without his center.

 

From covers:

 

FAU center Nick Paris is expected to play his first game of the season Tuesday. The senior starter injured his foot in the final preseason scrimmage but has been practicing with the first team leading up to this game.

 

If Paris can play, it will move players back to their normal positions. Kevin Miller had moved from guard to center to replace Paris, and Brandon Jackson from tackle to guard, with backup Lavoris Williams moving into Jackson's spot.

 

"Now that we have Nick back, I feel like the offense will start clicking more," Jackson said. "Having people back in certain places give people confidence."

 

If Rusty Smith can play up to his level, which I think he does tonight, then FAU takes this game. There's all the talk of the "revenge" angle from last year as FAU beat out Troy for the conference title. I'm not buying it. FAU can control the ball with a solid rushing attack against a weak rushing defense and the return of a respectable passing game. FAU knows they can beat Troy. That's a huge factor.

[JackARoot 2]

how did u do this week in NFL?

 

 

About even, lost a little Sunday, then made it up on the Vikings last night.

 

Baseball been bery-bery good to me...

[phillybear 366]

One of my favorite things this week is the return of Florida Atlantic's center. Remember, even Peyton Manning drops a level without his center.

 

From covers:

If Rusty Smith can play up to his level, which I think he does tonight, then FAU takes this game. There's all the talk of the "revenge" angle from last year as FAU beat out Troy for the conference title. I'm not buying it. FAU can control the ball with a solid rushing attack against a weak rushing defense and the return of a respectable passing game. FAU knows they can beat Troy. That's a huge factor.

 

Troy won the previous 4 meetings, and Fla Atl is not as good this year as previous editions. I understand the fade the public angle, but I couldn't find an edge to support Fla Atl keeping this one close. Rusty Smith has sucked all year, much to my surprise. If he plays decent tonight, my hat is off to you. I'm not crazy about taking a road favorite on a weekday game, but I've had this game circled for a couple of weeks. Troy owns the better offense and defense by a combined 200 total yards per game, and played a tougher schedule, IMO. I'm debating playing the 1st H Troy as well.

 

We shall see.

[JetsFan28 0]

Troy won the previous 4 meetings, and Fla Atl is not as good this year as previous editions. I understand the fade the public angle, but I couldn't find an edge to support Fla Atl keeping this one close. Rusty Smith has sucked all year, much to my surprise. If he plays decent tonight, my hat is off to you. I'm not crazy about taking a road favorite on a weekday game, but I've had this game circled for a couple of weeks. Troy owns the better offense and defense by a combined 200 total yards per game, and played a tougher schedule, IMO. I'm debating playing the 1st H Troy as well.

 

We shall see.

 

FAU beat Troy in their last meeting to take the Sun Belt Conference title. I'm not fading the public as I don't put much weight on the public in a game like this as most don't know about these two teams. You can say that Troy has played a tougher schedule but it's not as if they've fared very well. After FAU's last second loss last week, I can't see them not getting up for this game. I think they step up big time. We know Rusty Smith can do it as he threw for 32 td's and just 9 ints last year. This year he's been off, but his center his back and we'll see if that makes a difference.

[phillybear 366]

FAU beat Troy in their last meeting to take the Sun Belt Conference title. I'm not fading the public as I don't put much weight on the public in a game like this as most don't know about these two teams. You can say that Troy has played a tougher schedule but it's not as if they've fared very well. After FAU's last second loss last week, I can't see them not getting up for this game. I think they step up big time. We know Rusty Smith can do it as he threw for 32 td's and just 9 ints last year. This year he's been off, but his center his back and we'll see if that makes a difference.

 

College football is a very emotional game. Teams tend to let down after a heartbreaking loss, not bounce back. Troy had Ohio St on the ropes on the road in a game I had a healthy bet on Troy who covered, down 14-10 in the 4th quarter, but playing better than Ohio St for those first 3 quarters. Troy ended up losing the field position game, and a couple of short punts from deep in their territory set up Ohio St with short drives that gave a misleading 28-10 final score. Troy followed up that heart breaking loss by going on the road the next week and getting steamrolled by probably the best offense in college in Oklahoma St. Troy's offense moved the ball pretty well in the loss, but the defense understandably couldn't stop Ok St. And Troy was in route to blow out Midd Tenn St early, until late scores dressed up the final score.

 

On the other hand, Fla Atl beat UAB at home, which isn't a bad thing, but UAB is starting a young QB and is horrific on defense. Fla Atl lost to a mediocre Michigan St team in a monsoon, so they were lucky to hang around in the final deceiving score.

 

Ebb and flow. Ohio St loses a crucial game to USC, come home to face Troy and struggle mightily and barely win, rebound to beat Wisconsin.

Ebb and flow. Troy loses to Ohio St, lose to Oklahoma St badly in a possible look ahead game, now is playing Fla Atl.

Ebb and flow. Fla Atl loses a heartbreaker to Midd Tenn St, now is playing Troy.

 

Teams that lose tough games have a harder time rebounding. Which is why teams that are competing for a national title which lose their first game which effectively ends their season rarely come out fired up the next game to kick ass. They usually come out flat. It happens in smaller conferences too, losing a key game to a key opponent. If Midd Tenn St didn't insist on running the ball the first 3 quarters last week instead of passing which is the strength of their offense, they would have beaten Fla Atl more easily.

 

OK. Now I'm just rambling. And I'm not going to bother rereading my crap. Good luck to all.

[JetsFan28 0]

If anybody's going to make sure the Owls are prepared for this game it's coach Howard Schnellenberger.

 

From the Sun-Sentinel:

 

HARD LESSON: The players went back to practice Friday with their ears still ringing from a tongue-lashing coach Howard Schnellenberger delivered Thursday.

 

Like I said, I think they're up for this game. Troy isn't a team FAU is about to overlook and come out flat against. They'll step up to the competition.

 

Again, good luck.

[new-guru 0]

What's everyones thoughts on the over/under?

Love Troy

I like troy to put up some series points 35 to 38 pts, but not sure on FLAtl

 

Any score predictions?

[JetsFan28 0]

What's everyones thoughts on the over/under?

Love Troy

I like troy to put up some series points 35 to 38 pts, but not sure on FLAtl

 

Any score predictions?

Honestly haven't looked into it but I advise you don't bet against the under. Tuesday night unders have only missed twice in the last two seasons.

[new-guru 0]

Honestly haven't looked into it but I advise you don't bet against the under. Tuesday night unders have only missed twice in the last two seasons.

Good to Know

I am leaning on the over!

[$epphori$ 118]

ok..It s official

 

taking FAU +4 at home

 

and the over 51 each for 10 Units

[JetsFan28 0]

and the over 51 each for 10 Units

 

[$epphori$ 118]

 

whats wrong? I am +47 in units for the yr..

[JetsFan28 0]

whats wrong? I am +47 in units for the yr..

Haha just messin around with you..not doubting you by any means. I just never play against a Tuesday night under.

 

Good luck my friend.

[$epphori$ 118]

stranger things have happened...b4 last week Mizzu had not won in Nebraska in 30 yrs...

 

 

guess who had MIzzu

[JackARoot 2]

ok..It s official

 

taking FAU +4 at home

 

and the over 51 each for 10 Units

 

Jet is leaning strongly toward the under

[JackARoot 2]

Also, sounds like weather could be a factor:

 

Just looked at the schedule for each team on rivals and it says 7:00, but it also sayd TBA for the 11th. Im about 20 miles north of where the Owls play and its raining pretty good here. Just a heads up.

 

Matchup Date/Time Game Conditions Recent Changes

Troy @ Florida Atlantic 10/7/2008 8:00 PM Chance of a Thunderstorm

 

 

7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 0:00

Wind:

12 mph ENE

11 mph ENE

10 mph ENE

10 mph ENE

9 mph East

9 mph East

Condition:

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Chance of a Thunderstorm

Temperature: 81 ° 79 ° 79 ° 79 ° 79 ° 78 °

Humidity: 76 % 82 % 83 % 84 % 85 % 86 %

Chance of Rain: 50 % 50 % 50 % 50 % 30 % 30 %

[ToledoLurch 0]

I am jumping on Troy tonight with philly

 

 

 

NCAA YTD 31-29-3 - up 3.6 units

 

Troy -4 for 4 units - winner

 

 

good luck all!!!

[phillybear 366]

I ended up taking Troy (-2.5) 1st H as well.

 

Good luck folks. I guess about half of us will be happy as our opinions are split down the middle.

[big easy 0]

I have been tracking the line on this game since it came out. Like Philly, I've had this game circled for a couple of weeks now, anticipating a nice play on Troy. I got Troy at -3 from 5Dimes first thing yesterday morning and was very happy with it. I went back to the same book to maybe make it a little bit of a larger play for me. Most of my other books moved the line up to -4. When I checked 5Dimes it was at -3 again for a split second. Right before I went to increase my play, it jumped to

-5.5. WTF? That is quite a move. They must have just gotten a rather large play or tons of volume plays very quickly to move it that much in a moments notice. I am going to stay with the 3 units that I already have with Troy -3.

 

BOL everyone. I just wanted to let you know what I saw with the line movement.

[dmaidlow73 0]

Iam going against my gut and taking FAU +4. The lure of the weekday home dog is just too much for me.

 

God forbid I simply not play the game. If I did that I wouldn't have any reason to watch the game.

 

GL to evryone, with a little extra going to my fellow FAU backers. Here's hoping for a replay of last year's game.

[ToledoLurch 0]

The over/under has been really rising...

 

adding:

Troy/FAU under 54 for 2.5 units - winner

[phillybear 366]

Adding Troy 2nd H (PK)@-115 for 3 units.

 

Feeling like an assh0le.

[phillybear 366]

NCAA YTD: 43-36-5; +14.45 units

CFL YTD: 9-11-1; -5.7 units

NFL YTD: 22-14-1; +13.9 units

 

Tuesday

 

Troy (-3.5) for 3 units WINNER

Adding: Troy 1st H (-2.5) for 3 units WINNER

Adding: Troy 2nd H (PK)@-115 for 3 units WINNER

 

This line will go up, as Troy is getting around 70% of the action. HUGE revenge game for Troy, as they lost as a 16 point favorite to Fla Atl in their final regular season game last year to cost themselves the Sun Belt title. Troy owns the much better offense and defense. Big letdown for Fla Atl after blowing a 13 point lead late to Midd Tenn St last week. Lay the lumber.

 

Good luck to all.

 

Edit:

NCAA YTD: 46-36-5; +23.45 units

CFL YTD: 9-11-1; -5.7 units

NFL YTD: 22-14-1; +13.9 units

[JetsFan28 0]

Congrats to the Troy backers. I was on the wrong side tonight..Rusty Smith sucks and I've never seen so many dropped balls. Those two things together make for awful football.

 

Should have stuck with the can't miss Tuesday night under. Aw well.

[big easy 0]

Wow. Great start, Philly. 3-0 +9 units. JetsFan, that under play on Tuesday night has been just money. 18-7 now since 2003 and 10-2 since 2006 with two of those overs being in overtime. Unfortunately I guess I'm just too slow to realize this and have not made a play on any of them. I hate idly sitting on the sidelines while these trends are hitting at such a ridiculous clip. I had a nice start though picking up 3 units with Troy. I was only a point off with my prediction of a 31-17 final. I'll take it.

 

Moving on to the Clemson/Wake game, dmaidlow73 got me looking at this game on Monday. After quite a bit of studying this matchup, I agree with his pick on Clemson.

 

Clemson +2.5 2 units LOSE