Tony_Romo_Domination 0 Posted August 2, 2009 Kyle orton has a following of haters but he is in a passing offense with two stud wrs in Royal and marshall. Everyone knows that denver running game is far from solid regardless of recent additions to the RB stable. Come one guys, the thin air and that passing game. Orton had roughly 3,000 yards and 18 Tds last year with a bad bears offense. He was on a run first offense last year with bad wrs and now he is on a pass first offense with good wrs. Orton even had 3 rushing TDs last year. If you are waiting for a Qb and plan on stocking up on guys later in hopes of one of them having a nice year I suggest Orton. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
scherber830 0 Posted August 2, 2009 I like him this year. He didn't have much in terms of receiving talent to throw too during his time in Chi City, and now Marshall...who John Clayton says has a renewed sense of purpose and hard work this off-season...and Royal are his weapons. I would definitely love to get this guy as my backup QB this year with the hope that he blows up this year and I can trade him or retain him as a keeper for a late round pick next year. (I get to keep Drew Brees, so I have no interest in him as my starter). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tony_Romo_Domination 0 Posted August 2, 2009 I like him this year. He didn't have much in terms of receiving talent to throw too during his time in Chi City, and now Marshall...who John Clayton says has a renewed sense of purpose and hard work this off-season...and Royal are his weapons. I would definitely love to get this guy as my backup QB this year with the hope that he blows up this year and I can trade him or retain him as a keeper for a late round pick next year. (I get to keep Drew Brees, so I have no interest in him as my starter). If you have brees ans orton as your qbs you are sitting pretty. Yeah, I agree but if brees goes down then you have a guy throwing in a pass first offense to marshall and royal. Not a bad backup at all. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
remote controller 143 Posted August 3, 2009 #1??? NFW! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
karmarooster 0 Posted August 3, 2009 http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...p;#entry3996855 i posted this a while back, got a mix of responses, mostly negative. looking back, i think my first projections were too optimistic, but 3,800 yards is not out of the question. borderline QB1. I'm developing a major bromance for Kyle Orton this year in Denver with McDaniels.Let's take a look at Orton's stats last year for Chicago before he sprained his ankle in week 8 vs. Detroit. * 7 games played * 1669 yards * 10 TDs * 4 INTs * 62.2% completions Prorated to 16 games, that's 3814 yards, 22.8 TDs, and 9.1 INTs. In WCOFF scoring (20 yards/point, 4pt TD, -1 INT) = 272 points. Without even considering rushing yardage, in 2008 that would've been good enough for 9th overall, just after Cassel (288) and ahead of Garrard (261). There's every reason to assume those numbers will increase because of Denver's O-Line, Marshall, Royal, Gaffney, Stokely, Scheffler, Moreno, Buckhalter, and McDaniels himself. Cassel threw for 3693 yards, 21 TDs, and 11 INTs, but his total points are boosted by 270 yards and 2 TDs rushing. Orton won't take off like Cassel, but he should still improve on those passing numbers. He won't be learning on the job like Cassel last year after Brady went down, but will have training camp and preseason to get adjusted to McDaniels complex system. Cassel had been learning the system for several years, but hadn't played a game since high school! He also had a tendency to get happy feet in the pocket, esp. in the first half of the season. Orton on the other hand is 26 years old and a seasoned veteran. Denver's O-Line is just as good if not better than New England's, and certainly much better than Chicago's. Like NE, Denver also has quality WRs. Here's how they stack up: Denver Offense total plays/avg = 1019/6.2 yards Rushing att/avg = 387/4.8 yards Passing att/avg = 620/7.3 yards Sacks = 26 Attempts/sack = 23.8 Passing att/TD = 24.8 New England Offense total plays/avg = 1095/5.3 yards Rushing att/avg = 513/4.4 yards Passing att/avg = 534/7.1 yards Sacks = 31 Attempts/sack = 17.2 Passing att/TD = 25.4 To come up with some projections for Orton, i think you have to consider Denver, Chicago, and New England. There's alot of variables here so it's certainly guesswork. In NE, McDaniels had a run/pass ratio of 49/51 last year... Denver's defense will prevent him from maintaining that. I'll adjust that to 45/55. We can just use an even 1000 offensive plays as a baseline, so that gives 550 pass attempts. Orton should be able to match Cassel's 7.1 yards/att but maybe not Cutler's 7.3 yards/att. Orton 1st 7 games Passing att/avg = 230/7.25 Passing att/TD = 23 550 x 7.25 = 3,987 yards passing. 550/23 = 23.9 TDs. For INTs, we can take the average from NE(11), Denver(18), and Orton's pro-rated season(9) = 12.6 INTs. Orton also rushed for 49 yards, but pro-rate his first 7 games and you get 85 yards... also had 3 rushing TDs. I'll give him just 1 rushing TD. Orton had 5 fumbles, Cassel had 4. Subtract 8 points... 3,987 yards passing, 23.9 TDs, 12.6 INTS, 85 yards rushing, 1 TD, 4 fumbles ===> 288.8 points. In 2008, that would've been #8 QB, after McNabb (290.7) and ahead of Cassel (288.6). Denver's defense will be atrocious once again, but that's a recipe for big points from QB, WRs, and a pass-catching RB. Orton's passing yardage could exceed 4,000, and his total points could push 300 putting him near Manning (302.6) and #6 QB last year. I only see two potential problems with Orton, but they are big ones. Let's say the Broncos start off 0-4, McDaniels could lose control of the team. Or if the Broncos are 3-9 or something and decide to give the QB job to Chris Simms for a few games to see if he's worth keeping around. On FantasyFootballCalculator, Orton's ADP is 115 overall, round 10.07, QB#16. This is the kind of value player that can help you to a title, like Warner, Rodgers, and Rivers last year. My goal is to find THIS YEAR'S Warner/Rodgers/Rivers. after reading your post i think it may be a good idea to be more conservative with his yards/att. His career number doesn't mean that much to me, though, because it come mostly from 15 games played as rookie at 5.1. With McDaniels system, Denvers WRs and O-Line, he should be able to duplicate Cassel's 7.1.... 550 x 7.1 = 3,905 yards.you can also average Orton's prorated att/TD and Cassel's numbers and get 24.2... 550/24.2 = 22.7 TDs. it doesn't affect the projections that much. he's still QB8-QB12 material. if you really wanna be conservative, you could downgrade all these projections by 10% to account for the new system... this is a new experience for orton, the WRs, o-line, and head coach. 3,514 yards, 20.4 TDs. As for INTs, Cutler's 18 last year may be a result of either his 'gun-slinger mentality,' being forced to play catch up because of a porous defense, or a lack of healthy RBs. i don't think Orton will have 18 INTs, but 15 wouldn't surprise me. 3500 yards, 20 TDs, 15 INTs puts him in the middle of the backup QB group. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jedeye 0 Posted August 3, 2009 #1??? NFW! I don't think he meant to say THE #1 QB overall, but rather that Orton can be a teams #1 QB at a very good value. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tony_Romo_Domination 0 Posted August 3, 2009 denver loves to pass and Orton has everything he needs to succeed. He really gets a bad rep from that horrible first season with the bears. Most people cant and won't look beyond his first bad year. The sheeple love to follow the sites and refuse to think outside the box. Orton could easily wind up a top 12 fantasy qb at the end of the season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
49ers_suck 0 Posted August 3, 2009 meh........Orton can be a decent game manager, maybe a borderline #1. i'm not targeting him. in mocks, i've been targeting Mcnabb/Schaub/Palmer/Romo in mid to late rounds and usually getting two of them. i've been happy with the teams i field targetting these guys. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BMoney 0 Posted August 3, 2009 liked him in college....thought he was the bears best option til he was traded..... shanahan gone should help with the RB headaches..he gets kc and oakland.... i cant say hes on my radar...he will be my backup qb, if anything.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gunnergip 0 Posted August 3, 2009 Having watched the guy a few years here in Chicago, he made the best out of a bad situation. He is, by no means, a number 1 QB though; possibly a top back up, but not a number 1 QB to start the season. A lot of Orton's struggles were from some of the things mentioned on here: not athletic enough, run first O, etc, but a lot of balls were just plain dropped last year by Bears WRs. He gets Marshall and Royal instead. That definitely increases his value, but not as much as one would think. Eddie Royal is the better of the two Wrs because he is more of a Welker type player. Orton has a tough time throwing the long ball, which hurts his and Marshall's value a lot. I'd love to have him as a back up, but would be very worried about my squad if I had to rely on him as an every week starter. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
plasma george 62 Posted August 3, 2009 Having watched the guy a few years here in Chicago, he made the best out of a bad situation. He is, by no means, a number 1 QB though; possibly a top back up, but not a number 1 QB to start the season. A lot of Orton's struggles were from some of the things mentioned on here: not athletic enough, run first O, etc, but a lot of balls were just plain dropped last year by Bears WRs. He gets Marshall and Royal instead. That definitely increases his value, but not as much as one would think. Eddie Royal is the better of the two Wrs because he is more of a Welker type player. Orton has a tough time throwing the long ball, which hurts his and Marshall's value a lot. I'd love to have him as a back up, but would be very worried about my squad if I had to rely on him as an every week starter.How was Cassel valued before he went into the "system" ?We're all about to see (once again) how a "system" makes the QB....as Cutler will be worse in Chicago, and Orton will improve in Denver. And I LOVE his new Head Coach coming from New England. I think he will be a gem, and I'm considering loading up on RBs and WRs to get him late. Last year I got Cutler very late after taking Romo. In hindsight, I should've picked a WR for Romo's pick, and just started Cutler.....it's moves like this that make Champions ! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tony_Romo_Domination 0 Posted August 3, 2009 How was Cassel valued before he went into the "system" ?We're all about to see (once again) how a "system" makes the QB....as Cutler will be worse in Chicago, and Orton will improve in Denver. And I LOVE his new Head Coach coming from New England. I think he will be a gem, and I'm considering loading up on RBs and WRs to get him late. Last year I got Cutler very late after taking Romo. In hindsight, I should've picked a WR for Romo's pick, and just started Cutler.....it's moves like this that make Champions ! Good, load up on wrs and Rbs and then get orton as one of your two QB.s Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
