RBs With 'Heavy Workloads'

[NAn 39]

IMPORTANT: This thread names players not picked yet, so scroll down at own risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking Back At ’08 Season

 

No RBs attained the 370 f/carries in ’07 (two seasons ago), but remember data re: future production of 370 RBs the rest of their career. 8 RBs who previously attained the 370 benchmark did play last year. Here are predictions I posted last year and the actual ’08 statistics for those RBs.

Note that 7 of the 8 did not attain 200 FF pts (Tomlinson was the 1 that did, but his 225 FF pts were well below what many expected when drafting him before last season), and 5 of 8 missed games: 13, 3, 12, 4, 4 respectively.

 

Ahman Green ‘08: 294rushyds/32recyds/0tds 31ffpts (3 games)

Many RBs who had there first 370 season (’03) at a similar stage in their career (1500 f/carries) did not bounce back well. Names include Marcus Allen ('86), Ricky Watters ('97), and Ricky Williams ('03). Green’s career has fared no better, dropping significantly in overall production and games played, including missing 11 games ’05 and 10 last season. Just don’t see Green as being a significant fantasy contributor this year or any year moving forward; he is 31 years old and is going into his 11th season and missed significant time past 2 seasons.

 

Deuce Mcallister ‘08: 418rushyds/128recyds/6tds 71ffpts (13 games)

After his 370 season in ’03 Mcallister has had an ‘off again, off again, on again’ fantasy career. He did drop significantly in production in ‘04, then feel even further in ’05 missing 11 games. He bounced back in ’06, finishing season as a starting fantasy RB, only to get injured again last season missing 13 games. Some fantasy owners are targeting Mcallister as a solid #3 RB with upside to perform like a #2, citing his ’06 season. I’ll note that since his 370 season, Mcallister has missed 27 of 64 possible games (42.2%) and even that ‘bounce back’ ’06 season, still did not attain 200 fpts. He may well produce as a #3RB, but I wouldn’t count on it.

 

Shaun Alexander ‘08: 24rushyds/9rec yds/0tds 2ffpts (4 games)

Alexander is the ‘poster boy’ for this 370 f/carry analysis. After a record setting season in ’05, he missed 6 games and dropped in production over 60%. He went on to miss 3 more games in ’07 and drop further in production and f/carries, culminating in being cut by Seattle just 2 years after reigning as the league’s MVP. I’m with Seattle management…Alexander isn’t worth a roster spot, NFL or fantasy.

 

Edgerrin James ‘08: 514rushyds/85recyds/3tds 77ffpts (16 games)

James is an anomaly as far as RBs that have attained 370 f/carries. First he’s actually done it 3 times during his career. Further he was among the few that actually had productive years 250+ FF points—he has done it 3 times. Since the last time he eclipsed the benchmark though (’05), James has dropped in production an average of 450totyds/7.5tds. What you’ve seen from James past 2 years is likely what you’re going to get…at best. Which would put him at below 200 fpts.

 

Larry Johnson ‘08: 874rushyds/74recyds/5tds 124ffpts (12 games)

Attaining a 400 f/carry season back in ’06 does not bode well for Johnson. Attaining a 400 actual carry season is even worse. Only 3 of 19 times (15.7%) has a RB coming off a 400 f/carry season met or only slightly decreased in ff production. Only 1 of 4 RBs (25.0%) had a productive FF season after a 400 carry season, the other 3 RBs never attained near the level of production prior to the 400 carry season and missed a total of 21 games between them the following season. In ’07 Johnson followed suit with previous 400 f/carry RBs: missed 8 games and dropped nearly 70% in production. Many fantasy owners are banking on a ‘bounce back’ year from Johnson. I’m not one of them.

 

Jamal Lewis ‘08: 1002rushyds/178recyds/4tds 141ffpts (16 games)

So after my ‘doom and gloom’ statistics for Larry Johnson above, I should expect the same from another 400 f/carry RB in Lewis right (400 f/carries in ’03)? Actually, Lewis is my example of considering this analysis as one of many factors in projecting player production. Though this 370 data suggests strong odds against success after a 370 f/carry season (the next season or future seasons), there is still a percentage who will go against the odds. I considered the fantasy progress Lewis has made in recent years, particularly last year, not coincidentally the year he joined the Browns. Cleveland has a solid QB and very good OL. And Lewis has shown that he can carry the load to an extent and be productive. I expect Lewis to have a solid fantasy season, with numbers similar to last year.

 

Steven Jackson ‘08: 1042rushyds/379recyds/8tds 188ffpts (12 games)

Last year (’07) I predicted that Jackson would buck the 370 trend and have an elite fantasy season. As it turned out, Jackson was yet another RB to give validity to the analysis, missing games and decreasing in f/carries and overall production. Still, of the 12 times that a RB met or only slightly decreased in FF production, 8 of the times were done by players with similar career f/carries to Jackson. These players included Ladainian Tomlinson, Edgerrin James, Terrell Davis, Emmitt Smith, and Eric Dickerson. Plus, Jackson wasn’t only problem Rams had last year though and should make a concerted effort to not get off to a similar start; they still have enough talent on offense to be a potentially potent offense and Jackson should play a significant role. I expect Jackson to have a solid to elite season in ’08.

 

Ladainian Tomlinson ‘08: 1110rushyds/426recyds/16tds 225ffpts (16 games)

Tomlinson has attained 370 f/carries twice in his career; 3 other seasons, he just missed the benchmark, reaching the high 360’s. How long do the elite RBs remain elite before dropping off considerably? S.Alexander: 5 years, P.Holmes: 4 years, Faulk: 4 years, T.Davis: 3 years, E.Smith 5 years. Tomlinson has already had 6 straight seasons that would qualify as fantasy elite. Last year I predicted a 20% decrease in production for Tomlinson and he did in fact drop 30.9%. But considering he was coming off a record setting year, still elite numbers by fantasy standards. This will be an unpopular (and likely ridiculed) statement, but I’m going on record as projecting even a bigger drop in production, citing him as one 370 who will not attain 200 fpts this upcoming season, likely due to missing time. The ‘wheels have to come off’ at some point and I’m predicting this will be the year. His value will be near impossible to pass on as a 1-3 pick though, so if you do draft Tomlinson this year, I suggest drafting a #3 RB early and/or watching his production early on and adjust ‘in season’ strategy if necessary.

 

Looking Ahead To ’09 Season: RBs With 370 F/Carry Season Previously In ‘08

 

Michael Turner 377rushes/6recs = 380 f/carries Adrian Peterson 364rushes/21recs = 375 f/carries

I’m going to project these two together, as they are in similar situations and have similar predictions for both. I referenced earlier than those who bucked the trend for 370 RBs did it early their respective careers with ‘low mileage’. Notably, Earl Campbell, Erik Dickerson, Emmitt Smith, Edgerrin James, Ladainian Tomlinson. So both Turner and Peterson have a better chance than most to buck trend: Turner going into 5th season, but only a starter for 1 and only nominal touches in other 4…could be considered a 2nd year mileage wise. And Peterson going into his 3rd year. With that said, I’ve predicted other 370 RBs in recent years with overall low mileage to be highly productive after a 370 f/carry season and been burned. Notably Deuce Mcallister and Stephen Jackson. I realize both are in situations that are favorable to them getting lots of touches, but that was same case with Mcallister and Jackson.

So, I’m personally going to stay away from both of them (would only pick as value to trade away) in ’09 as I see both dipping in production 20+% likely due to missing 2-3 games each. If you do draft either RB suggest drafting 3rd RB earlier than usual and/or drafting respective ‘handcuffs’ for either RB.

 

Looking Ahead To ’09 Season: RBs With 370 F/Carry Season Previously In Career

 

Ladainian Tomlinson

Tomlinson has been a fixture atop or near top of draft boards for several years and bucked the 370 trend more than once. That ended last year though and see it continuing. Still see him being relatively productive, but not worth the value of his recent ADP.

 

Stephen Jackson

See Tomlinson. Jackson has been a perennial early 1st round draft pick past few seasons, but has fall short of expectations with exception of 1 season. There’s been excuses every year, and debatable if they are legitimate or not, but bottom line for me is he hasn’t consistently performed to expectations.

He’ll be long off the board before I would draft him.

 

Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, Larry Johnson

I’m lumping these RBs together as well, b/c frankly I feel the same about all of them. I see them joining the majority of other 370 RBs that did not attain 200 FF pts. They are going much later in drafts so they may have value if say you are expecting 150-180 FF pts from any of them, but I see each of them likely missing multiple games and not even getting that. Their value for me is nominal at best.

 

Shaun Alexander, Deuce Mcallister, Ahman Green

I honestly have not done recent research but last I read, they were out of the league altogether, and even if they were to land themselves on a team, just think they are done and have no FF value.

[NAn 39]

no one wants to rip my research or takes?

 

you guys are getting soft in your old age.

[KSB2424 3,148]

Stephen Jackson

See Tomlinson. Jackson has been a perennial early 1st round draft pick past few seasons, but has fall short of expectations with exception of 1 season. There’s been excuses every year, and debatable if they are legitimate or not, but bottom line for me is he hasn’t consistently performed to expectations.

He’ll be long off the board before I would draft him.

I don't really get your take here. He has really only started for three 1/2 seasons. He's only 27/28 years old (prime) The one he was healthy he had like 2200 total yards, 90 receptions, and TD's. He was a monster.

 

He's only played 11 or 12 games the past two seasons because of injury. It's not an excuse. He got hurt. I don't understand what you mean whey you say 'debatable excuses' 'legitimate or not'. That makes no sense to me. He got hurt, plain and simple. That's not an excuse. It's just what happened.

 

However when he did play even in the past two seasons, he was dominant. I don't have the stat handy but it's something like if you take yards from scrimmage per full game played over the past three seasons S-Jax is number one.

 

So the only thing stopping him is staying injury free. Just because it happened the past two season doesn't mean it will this year. He's worth the chance at a middle round selection. Especially in ppr where he can be a monster. High reward pick.

 

Not sure where you live, but have you honestly ever sat down and watched a Rams game that S-Jax was healthy play in? My word he is all over the place. Hell on wheels.

[NAn 39]

Now that's what I'm talking about!

 

Where to start...

 

I guess you said it for me...he's played 3 1/2 years and really lived up to hype 1 of those years. My take is I'm done with his 'potential'. He's got young fred taylor all over him to date: He's a MONSTER...when he plays....which more and more is not very often.

 

The 'debatable reasons' were his qb going down, is OL problems, coaches not using him right...but you're right bottom line is he got injured. That's enough for me.

 

And actually, read the analysis thread...the point is that with RBs that have attained a 370 f/carry season, you can't predict injury no...but statistics are pretty telling and get supported each year since I first did it, that historically these RBs get injured more frequently and often for significant amount of games.\

 

BRING IT KS!

[KSB2424 3,148]

BRING IT KS!

That's all I had. I knew I should've saved something for the rebuttal.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

I like Jackson and would probably take him after LT in a ppr league.

 

The old "he got hurt!, if you project his numbers to a full season, blah blah blah" does get tiring tho.

 

he is up there in points per game, but if you look back at last year he had 3 big weeks and the rest were average.