Help With New League

[NAn 39]

One of my leagues fell thru so joined a 16 team.

 

QB heavy scoring, TD heavy scoring (1pt per 20rush/rec, 50yds pass), start 1qb/2rb/3wr/1flx

 

PLAN A

I looked at past scoring and draft history and QBs go early...usually 3-4 over first 3 rnds.

 

Initial plan is to come out RB/WR first 2 rnds depending on my spot (we don't know yet) then targeting Rivers in 3rd.

 

PLAN B

But would love to come out of first 4 rnds with 2rb/2wr, maybe 5 rnds adding best available rb/wr, but that may be reach with the way qbs go and what I'm thinking.

 

Thinking of going way above then go for 2 of these qbs and a best available in rnds 5-7: cutler/palmer/ryan/schaub

 

So asking....

 

Which plan do you guys like better?

General comments on Plan B...do you like? would you be comfortable w/it in qb heavy scoring? if so, which 2 qbs?

Or am I not being realistic in a qb heavy league? Meaning that maybe for those guys I would have to commit to qb earlier, like in rnds 4-6?

 

Any thoughts at all appreciated.

[Dan 59]

You're calling it QB-heavy scoring . . . I'm curious as to how.

 

Looking at their history is a good measure, by and large, though reflecting on the necessity is hard to gauge without more information.

 

QBs will go a little earlier, but that depends as much on the owners as anything, and their perception of what is taking place. In our re-draft that accounts for completions, as well as a yardage scoring that's a bit unique, I've seen QBs go in the first round. If I want Brees, Brady, Manning . . . I'm going very early. The rest of the QBs shift by a good round or more . . . but then spread much more widely as other positions get looked to.

 

All that said, it is still based by value. I won the league last year, and took Warner (13th) and Favre (8th). The regular-season winner - 13-1 - had a combination of E. Manning (7th), J. Flacco (17th), and B. Griese (FA). The guy who had Drew Brees (1.9) finished 8-6. Won his division, but found himself thin at WR. The other division winner was 8-6, and he had Tony Romo (1.11) as his "starter." Chad Pennington (18th) was his "backup" and outscored him. The last 8-6 team had Jay Cutler (8th), but consider that he wasn't as highly regarded last year. Peyton Manning's (1.8) team went 7-7.

 

After the flurry of QBs very early, there were zero drafted in the 2nd, 1 in the 3rd (Palmer), 1 in the 4th (Roethlisberger), and none in the 5th.

 

The point is, you still have to be able to draft a team. And if you're willing to draft value, you're still going to do well. And know your opponents. But unless you think that Brees/Brady/Manning are going to outscore the rest of the QBs by tons, hold back. Rivers will likely go where you're slotting him - in the third. Is he worth it? That's the question. 16-teamer, the rounds will stretch the talent. In the first three rounds, you're finishing round 4. I still say you go value.

 

I'd be planning option B . . . but I like Schaub, and would take him without compunction in the 5th, maybe the 4th in that league . . . though I'd want to see the drafting history.

[NAn 39]

Good stuff Dan.

 

 

You also make a good pt about knowing opponents, but that's just the thing...new to league so don't know most of people and tendencies (I know 2 of the guys who are friends of mine). I have looked over past drafts and got some general info over say 5 drafts: few guys who consistently took qbs early or went heavy rb, guys who found value players late, etc. but not much beyond that.

 

And of course get the idea of value.

 

As to why I consider it QB heavy scoring: 6pt per pass TD, which in itself doesn't always show big picture so I also looked at scoring from previous years.

Then for last year I did the point differential: looked at top qb's score and subtracted the 16th qb's score, looked at top rb score and subtracted the 40th rb score (start 2rbs and a flex, so went 16+16+8, assuming at least half of flx players would be rbs), and so on for wrs, tes, etc.

 

Came out like this:

qb diff: 118

rb diff: 134

wr diff: 98

te: 69

 

so rbs still most valuable, but usually after that it's wrs, but not here...and generally the drop in tier scoring is much sharper with the qbs than all other positions where the drop is more gradual.

 

Here's scoring for qbs, I'll try to post others and maybe draft later.

 

	   Rankings Trends Passing Rushing Receiving Return Misc Fum   
Player Action Opp Owner Projected Actual % Owned Yds TD Int Yds TD Yds TD Yds TD 2PT Lost Fan Pts 
Drew Brees 
(NO - QB)	Det FA 15 2 100% 5069 34 17 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 271.33 
Philip Rivers 
(SD - QB)	@Oak FA 37 6 99% 4009 34 11 84 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 263.38 
Aaron Rodgers 
(GB - QB)	Chi FA 38 4 99% 4038 28 13 207 4 0 0 0 0 2 3 257.11 
Kurt Warner 
(Ari - QB)	SF FA 35 8 99% 4583 30 14 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 229.56 
Jay Cutler 
(Chi - QB)	@GB FA 73 5 96% 4526 25 18 200 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 227.52 
Peyton Manning 
(Ind - QB)	Jac FA 21 11 100% 4002 27 12 21 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 227.09 
Donovan McNabb 
(Phi - QB)	@Car FA 51 16 98% 3916 23 11 147 2 0 0 0 0 0 5 205.67 
Matt Cassel 
(KC - QB)	@Bal FA 95 14 90% 3693 21 11 270 2 0 0 0 0 2 4 201.36 
Tony Romo 
(Dal - QB)	@TB FA 33 34 99% 3448 26 14 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 187.01 
Chad Pennington 
(Mia - QB)	@Atl FA 162 27 49% 3653 19 7 62 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 181.16 
Tyler Thigpen 
(KC - QB)	@Bal FA 230 25 4% 2608 18 12 386 3 37 1 0 0 1 2 180.31 
Eli Manning 
(NYG - QB)	Was FA 108 39 92% 3238 21 10 10 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 175.26 
Brett Favre 
(Min - QB)	@Cle FA 231 36 72% 3472 22 22 43 1 2 0 0 0 1 2 163.69 
Kyle Orton 
(Den - QB)	@Cin FA 116 52 58% 2972 18 12 49 3 0 0 0 0 1 5 158.89 
David Garrard 
(Jac - QB)	@Ind FA 112 24 74% 3620 15 13 322 2 -6 0 0 0 0 3 158.20 
Matt Ryan 
(Atl - QB)	Mia FA 83 40 96% 3440 16 11 104 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 154.00

[Dan 59]

Good research, NAn. That's impressive. Sounds as though Rivers in the 3rd is the "safe" way to go. But again, that's where I think you can play. Because I think that Schaub - others think Palmer - are going to perform as well as, or close to, Rivers' output. In that case, the 2RB/2WR way really works, if you intentionally take that next tier QB in round 5. If your homework on your projections is as thorough as what you're showing above, you're going to get the value QB that slides into that area and goes nuts.

 

That would be where I would aim initially, and then just pay wicked close attention throughout the draft. Duh, I know.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

so i posted in here before but deleted because it was an in depth post that was basically telling you to do exactly what you did in researching the scoring differences at each position.

 

what I will say is that I don't see anything that leads me to believe it is worth it to reach for a QB. Unless you can start one at the flex spot and it would be worth it to either A. have 2 QB's going for you or B. start a QB over other positions at the flex.

 

this doesn't seem to be the case so I would grab WR's and RB's while others reach for their QB.