Some mock draft observations

[MDC 5,895]

I've done about a dozen 14-team mock drafts and I'm definitely seeing a few trends:

 

* Picks 1-4 have been AP, CJ, MJD and Rice - Pick 5 has always been Gore or Andre Johnson.

* Even in a 14-team league there is great value at QB. Aaron Rodgers is usually the 1st off the board in Round 1. Brees / Manning either in late 1st or right after the turn (15-18). Romo has fallen to the late 2nd or early 3rd. Rivers, Brady and Schaub can be had in the late 3rd to early 4th in many drafts.

* Draftees are really up on Schonn Greene -- he's gone as high as 8th overall and never fallen to the 23rd pick. Mid-late 2nd round seems to offer great value at 2nd tier RBs -- Grant, Charles, DeAngelo, Matthews, have typically been available at the 23rd pick with Jonathan Stewart, Beanie Wells and even Benson often around in the 3rd.

* Owners just cannot resist taking TEs. There are at least 7-8 quality starters, but someone keeps taking Dallas Clark in the late 3rd, sparking a run that sees the next 5-6 go in the 4th round. Unless you want to spend a 4th rounder on a Witten / Celek type, you might want to wait -- Schiancoe, Winslow and Zach Miller (OAK) have all fallen like rocks.

 

Some of the best values:

 

Favre: This is going to change when/if he commits but as of now he's a 6th round pick or later.

DeAngelo / JStew: Owners scared by RBBC. Angelo is going very late 2nd round / early 3rd. Stew is mid/late 3rd or early 4th.

Zach Miller: He's more of a sleeper but he's around in the 8th or later.

Eli Manning: 6-7 rounder, even in a 14-team league

Schaub/Rivers: Both typical 4th rounders.

Malcolm Floyd: Going to be "the man" to start the year and he's a 5/6 rounder.

Beanie Wells: Hasn't gone earlier than mid-3rd.

Sims-Walker: 4/5 - drafters seem to think he's a flash in the pan.

 

Some of the typical reaches:

 

SJax: I wouldn't touch him until the late 2nd at earliest, but I often see him in the bottom of the 1st.

ARodgers: I like him, but 8-10 is way too early when you can have Brees or Manning several picks later and Romo as late as 2nd/3rd.

WRs: Kind of unfair since there are so few marquee WRs this year, but the late 1st/early 2nd seems to spark a run - Moss, Fitz, Megatron, Miles, Wayne, etc. But a lot of draftees are passing on solid #2 RBs like Grant in favor of WRs like Roddy White and I just don't see it.

TE: There is no way you should be the first in your league to take a TE, since you're likely going to have a shot at Celek or Witten a full round after someone reaches on Jermichael Finley.

D: Same deal as TEs. Someone keeps taking the Jets as early as the 7th or 8th round, and that's nuts.

 

My last mock drafted team, 14 owners. I'm just posting this because it's been pretty typical from the 6 spot.

 

QB: EManning (6), Henne (10)

RB: Gore (1), DeAngelo (2), Wells (3), Spiller (7)

WR: Nicks (4), MFloyd (5), Gaffney (9), Jacoby Jones (11), Devery Henderson (13), Chris Chambers (15)

TE: Zach Miller (8)

K: Neil Rackers (14)

D: Philly (12)

[death of the cool 0]

Some good stuff in here...

 

I play in a 12 teamer with a snake draft, but I see some of the same "runs" taking place. I have the 1st pick, and after taking CJ I wait at the end of the 2nd round and watch the run on WR's just drain the board....usually by the 24th pick the best left is D.Jackson and M.Colston.

 

The problem with picking at the end of any round is if I pass on those guys for the RB value of Grant/Charles/Benson....the WR's are gutted and then you are gambling on starting guys like J.Maclin.

 

I like the upside in the 6th and 7th at RB (Jacobs, Barber, R.Williams) more than WR at that point.

 

TE run does usually start around mid to late 4th....and being that I pick at the 4.12/5.1 turn I make sure I get an elite one (usually at least V.Davis and sometimes A.Gates), because they usually dont make it back to me at 6.12

 

QB can go either way....I can snag an elite one at the 2.12/3.1 turn....Brady is there most of the time....or I can wait and try to get Favre or Kolb....after that I am not too comfortable with starting Cutler/Ryan/Flacco types.

 

I think my best case scenario is:

 

1.01 - C.Johnson

2.12- D.Jackson

3.01- T. Brady

4.12- A.Gates

5.01- C.Ochocinco

6.12- D.Bryant

7.01- R.Williams

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

I pretty much see what MDC reported. I guess I'm one of those "drafters" that thought/think Sims walker is a flash in the pan. But, I think I might change my opinion on that a little.

[yostevo 0]

The only thing I want to add is that MSW is not a flash in the pan. The guy has legitimate ability but he'll continue to be Garrarded.

[Matt Mueller 146]

MSW'S problem is staying healthy. Check his history.

 

If he can, Jacksonville has a very favorable schedule and he could be in for a big year.

[cheesesteaks 0]

I also play in a 14-team league and agree with many of your points. I've done a lot of mock drafts and noticed that Brady, Romo, Schaub are gone by pick 40 (end of 3rd round) on average. Rivers might be a good pickup in the 4th if McNeil and/VJ return to action. You can get good values of RBs in the 2nd half of round 2 through rd 4. 5th round seems to be where there is a run of TEs after Davis is selected. Clark is going a lot sooner than Gates. I don't know my draft position but my preference is to go WR in the 1st and get a good RB in the 2nd. I prefer to have the picks from 6-11 as it guarantees I get a top WR and top RB. WRs are gone for people selecting at the end of round 2 and the value is not there for WRs in round 3 but it is a big gap until the end of round 4.

 

I think Ricky is a better option than Brown. Brown is being selected in the 4th round and Ricky si going 1 or 2 rounds later. Zach Miller is a great option at TE in round 8, but also a lot of people are discounting Heath Miller who could be a steal, specially after Holmes was sent to NY. I agree that people are crazy when going for DEF in rounds 7-9. There is great value in WRs in the final rounds, but terrible value for RBs after round 10 unless you handcuff you top RB.

 

I think Roddy White is going to be a top 5 WR and has proven it the past 3 yrs while Austin has only done it for half a season. According ot mock drafts there is no consensus on Fitz, some are going for him up to picks 11-12 and others are passing until round 2 just because of Leinart. However, he is a big WR who does not need a great pass to catch and is a red zone threat with no decent TE in the team so I don't know why he is being drafted after CJ or Austin. I'm not keen on Dez Bryant as a #2 WR as many are drafting him, but it is good strategy to select Roy Williams later.

 

My best case scenario for draft from the 6-spot is:

1) AJ

2) DeAngelo Williams/Grant/Charles

3) Romo

4) Addai/Felix Jones/Best

5) Hines Ward/Nicks/Celek/Witten

6) Moss/Garcon/Maclin

7) Bradshaw/Portis/Michael Bush

8) TE or RB

 

A 2nd option is to go for another RB in round 3 and follow with a TE (Gates or Davis) or a WR in round 4 and then go for Kolb (or Favre if he returns) in round 5 or else wait until round 6 or 7 for a QB like Eli Manning or Flacco. In general I prefer the 2nd option, but because my league scores 6 points per TD I'm leaning towards the 1st choice. What do you think?

 

On a final note, a lot of these points will change after preseason games begin and people become more aware of current "sleepers" and RB depths are settled.