Dynasty Trade - Turner/change for Maclin and Beanie

[Riddlen 1]

My team wildly underperformed this year and I am trying to get value for Turner before he dries up.

 

The change is prolly Earl Bennet.

 

My core is:

Peyton

Turner

J stewart

Matthews

Bmarsh

All the raiders WRs

D Clark

and 1.1 of this years dynasty draft

 

My WRs behlow and making this trade means I have to start Stewart, Matthews, whoever I take @ 1.1/Beanie Bmarsh and Maclin.

 

Any thoughts?

 

I would like a shot at getting good while I have Peyton.

[Stewburtx8 67]

My team wildly underperformed this year and I am trying to get value for Turner before he dries up.

 

The change is prolly Earl Bennet.

 

My core is:

Peyton

Turner

J stewart

Matthews

Bmarsh

All the raiders WRs

D Clark

and 1.1 of this years dynasty draft

 

My WRs behlow and making this trade means I have to start Stewart, Matthews, whoever I take @ 1.1/Beanie Bmarsh and Maclin.

 

Any thoughts?

 

I would like a shot at getting good while I have Peyton.

 

I do not think you are getting enough value for Turner in this instance. Turner is a first round pick next year. Even if you are high on Maclin, that makes him a 4th round pick at best in my opinion. I'd put him somewhere in the top 15-20 WR range. Beanie Wells is like a 6th or 7th round pick in my opinion. I don't think he is a top 25 RB. So a 1st round pick for a 4th and 6th round pick at best isn't very good value. If you are trading a first round guy, I want first round value at WR in return. Or in a package deal, I want a 2nd round WR and a 4th round RB, or something similar. I just think you would be selling short on Turner here, and I'm not even much of a Michael Turner fan. Just my opinion.

 

EDIT: I also think you can grab AJ Green or Julio Jones at 1.1 in the draft and have a stud WR pretty quickly.

[mobb_deep 917]

I think that's pretty decent value for Turner. He's by all accounts entering the part of his career where numbers will drop and injuries will appear more frequently. I'm not a huge Beanie fan, but you're looking at a probable started for the next 3-5 years, while I'd give Turner maybe 2? Maclin is no slouch either. He's a pretty solid low end WR2 upper WR3.

[Riddlen 1]

I think that's pretty decent value for Turner. He's by all accounts entering the part of his career where numbers will drop and injuries will appear more frequently. I'm not a huge Beanie fan, but you're looking at a probable started for the next 3-5 years, while I'd give Turner maybe 2? Maclin is no slouch either. He's a pretty solid low end WR2 upper WR3.

thats the part I am struggling with. I am thinking of maclin as my WR2 and hoping he is a good one.

Thanks for the responses so far.

 

also, I could MAYBE get desean jackson and change as well from a different owner. but the change would be waiver fodder RB or crappy draft pick.

[Larry David 20]

I think that's pretty decent value for Turner. He's by all accounts entering the part of his career where numbers will drop and injuries will appear more frequently. I'm not a huge Beanie fan, but you're looking at a probable started for the next 3-5 years, while I'd give Turner maybe 2? Maclin is no slouch either. He's a pretty solid low end WR2 upper WR3.

Let's not put Michael Turner in a rocking chair just yet. I’m not saying he’s still going to be a top 10 rusher when he’s 34 but he’s still got plenty of tread on the tires. He’s touched the ball only 1,151 times in his career (1,117 rushing + 34 receiving – regular season only) and that’s with losing less than 10 games to injury. To put that in perspective, Maurice Jones-Drew is three years younger than Turner and has already had 1,376 touches.

 

I had some (O.K., entirely too much) time on my hands so I did a little research. Listed below are the total number of rushing attempts + receptions from other recent stud players by the time they were 29…

 

Brian Westbrook - 1,648

Thomas Jones – 1,902

Clinton Portis - 2,477

Jamal Lewis - 2,763

Edgerrin James - 2,919

LaDainian Tomlinson - 3,167

 

Keep in mind that some of these guys missed considerable time to injury and are still miles ahead of Turner. I realize that player breakdown is a combination of age and workload but I think in Turner's case the second part of the equation isn't as much of a factor as it is for your average 29 year old.

[Stewburtx8 67]

Let's not put Michael Turner in a rocking chair just yet. I’m not saying he’s still going to be a top 10 rusher when he’s 34 but he’s still got plenty of tread on the tires. He’s touched the ball only 1,151 times in his career (1,117 rushing + 34 receiving – regular season only) and that’s with losing less than 10 games to injury. To put that in perspective, Maurice Jones-Drew is three years younger than Turner and has already had 1,376 touches.

 

I had some (O.K., entirely too much) time on my hands so I did a little research. Listed below are the total number of rushing attempts + receptions from other recent stud players by the time they were 29…

 

Brian Westbrook - 1,648

Thomas Jones – 1,902

Clinton Portis - 2,477

Jamal Lewis - 2,763

Edgerrin James - 2,919

LaDainian Tomlinson - 3,167

 

Keep in mind that some of these guys missed considerable time to injury and are still miles ahead of Turner. I realize that player breakdown is a combination of age and workload but I think in Turner's case the second part of the equation isn't as much of a factor as it is for your average 29 year old.

 

 

Good stuff. Pretty much what my response was going to be. Michael Turner isn't your "normal" 29 year old RB. He's only played 2.5 seasons as a starting RB in the NFL.

 

I think you would have to have some high expectations on Beanie Wells to make the trade. I don't have those expectations. Everyone talks about his talent and upside, but he hasn't really shown it on the field yet. He has struggled to play through injuries and stay on the field consistently ahead of Tim Hightower. I do like Jeremy Maclin. But as long as DJax and Lesean McCoy are in Philly, I think Maclin's upside is similar to his production this season: 75 receptions, 1000 yards, 10 TD's. And the TD number is likely to decrease over increase. He's a very solid #2 WR, but I wouldn't be giving up a #1 RB for him. If you are playing to win now, I'd keep Michael Tuner, draft Green or Jones at 1.1, and explore options to trade Stewart or Mathews for another WR if necessary. Just my opinion.

[De Novo 0]

Good stuff. Pretty much what my response was going to be. Michael Turner isn't your "normal" 29 year old RB. He's only played 2.5 seasons as a starting RB in the NFL.

He doesn't have as much mileage on his tires as other normal 29 year olds, but I bet he has almost as much wear. He has a bruising style, has had injury problems in the past, and (let's face it) he's overweight and slow to begin with. I would not bet on Turner having more than 2 more decent seasons. I believe his cliff will be as bad or worse than Shaun Alexander's.

 

To whoever said he's a 1st round pick in dynasty leagues, I think that's a huge mistake.

 

While I think you can do a little better than Maclin and Wells, I would seriously consider it and look to move one or both of them to the highest bidder since you'll be taking AJ Green or possibly Mark Ingram with the 1st pick.

[mobb_deep 917]

He doesn't have as much mileage on his tires as other normal 29 year olds, but I bet he has almost as much wear. He has a bruising style, has had injury problems in the past, and (let's face it) he's overweight and slow to begin with. I would not bet on Turner having more than 2 more decent seasons. I believe his cliff will be as bad or worse than Shaun Alexander's.

 

To whoever said he's a 1st round pick in dynasty leagues, I think that's a huge mistake.

 

While I think you can do a little better than Maclin and Wells, I would seriously consider it and look to move one or both of them to the highest bidder since you'll be taking AJ Green or possibly Mark Ingram with the 1st pick.

 

+1

 

Anyone not dumping Turner in a dynasty league is going to miss the window where he still has value. He's only going to get fatter and slower. He has nowhere to go but down, while guys like Beanie can only go up (or stay the same).

[Stewburtx8 67]

+1

 

Anyone not dumping Turner in a dynasty league is going to miss the window where he still has value. He's only going to get fatter and slower.

 

 

I agree somewhat. But he is playing to WIN NOW, as you should almost always be. At least that's how I understood it. I think you can still get at least another very productive season or two out of Turner and still flip him for value the following year. I also don't like Beanie Wells. So I think Turner to Wells is a HUGE downgrade this upcoming season. I don't think adding Maclin is worth that downgrade. I just think you can do better than Maclin and Wells. Only the OP knows his league and his leaguemates.

[Evil Genius 0]

Turner needs to go. I see all the low-carries, low-mileage arguments as crap. He getting old, he's a blimp, he's slow.

 

If some guy values him as a number one, and you can get Maclin and Beanie for him, do it.

 

I see Ingram going as the 1.1, which looks good to replace the loss of Turner. Beanie should give him enough of a chance to win now if Ingram takes a season to develop, but projections have him going to Miami, where he should have every chance to succeed. If that doesn't pan out, you certainly get the Rook RB with the best chance to be big.

 

Do it.

[Larry David 20]

He getting old, he's a blimp, he's slow.

Ha!! Third in the NFL in rushing yards and fourth in rushing TDs. Imagine what he could do if he didn't suck.

[Evil Genius 0]

Imagine what he could do if he didn't suck.

 

Or if he wasn't in Vegas making up his losses at the buffets.

 

It's not about what he did last year, it's about where he's headed in Dynasty play.

 

Check yer head. Maclin is going to be good for several years, maybe seven, and Beanie has nowhere to go but up.

 

Turner - barring the first half of next year, on a one way ticket to hell's kitchen.

[De Novo 0]

I agree somewhat. But he is playing to WIN NOW, as you should almost always be. At least that's how I understood it. I think you can still get at least another very productive season or two out of Turner and still flip him for value the following year. I also don't like Beanie Wells. So I think Turner to Wells is a HUGE downgrade this upcoming season. I don't think adding Maclin is worth that downgrade. I just think you can do better than Maclin and Wells. Only the OP knows his league and his leaguemates.

I understood the poster to be trying to win in the next 3-4 years, not now. Otherwise, why would he trade Turner?

[Kilroy 0]

I'd say it's a pretty decent trade. I may try to get more from the other guy, like a second or third round pick in the dynasty draft (and include your third or fourth), just to see if he'd go for it. If he came off as hesitant and likely to back out than it's a worthwhile deal to make (especially if your in a PPR league as it decreses Turner's value).

 

Turner may have another solid season (maybe two) ahead of him, but he is close to reaching that age that most backs suffer big drop-offs in fantasy production. He's 29 this season and the type of back he is only makes him vulnerable to wearing down more quickly than the more elusive backs in the league. The fact he didn't get many touches early in his career may allow to be valuable until he's 31, ut his value is still on the decline.

 

In a dynasty league, trading an aging running back for young talent like Maclin and Wells is a solid investment. It wouldn't be beyond reason to even think Wells may produce better fantasy production than Turner within the next 1-2 years.

 

There's a possibility it could hurt you this season, but in the big picture it'd be a solid deal for you (even without the draft pick I mentioned trying to get being part of the deal, that would just solidfy it more as something you should definatley do).

[Riddlen 1]

I understood the poster to be trying to win in the next 3-4 years, not now. Otherwise, why would he trade Turner?

this. i took a shot this year thinking turner, peyton, bmarsh, matthews etc (jerome harrison for one) would get me a shot and I have 1.1 so I am trying to retool a bit and give my self a shot over the next 3-4 years before peytons window closes.

[Kilroy 0]

I am trying to retool a bit and give my self a shot over the next 3-4 years before peytons window closes.

 

If that's the case you should definately make the trade because in another 1-2 years you'll be getting far less for Turner (if you were able to get anything at all for him at that time).

[FantasyFootballLeagueSite 0]

I do not think you are getting enough value for Turner in this instance. Turner is a first round pick next year. Even if you are high on Maclin, that makes him a 4th round pick at best in my opinion. I'd put him somewhere in the top 15-20 WR range. Beanie Wells is like a 6th or 7th round pick in my opinion. I don't think he is a top 25 RB. So a 1st round pick for a 4th and 6th round pick at best isn't very good value. If you are trading a first round guy, I want first round value at WR in return. Or in a package deal, I want a 2nd round WR and a 4th round RB, or something similar. I just think you would be selling short on Turner here, and I'm not even much of a Michael Turner fan. Just my opinion.

 

EDIT: I also think you can grab AJ Green or Julio Jones at 1.1 in the draft and have a stud WR pretty quickly.

 

You'd be crazy to take Turner in the 1st round of a dynasty draft. You're probably only going to get 2 more years at most out of him. His ADP is around 2.10 right now while Maclin is going in the beginning of the 4th round. Maclin has the potential to be a #1 fantasy WR in the next year or two and Wells has a ton of upside if he can ever stay healthy. I would do that trade in a heartbeat.

[Stewburtx8 67]

You'd be crazy to take Turner in the 1st round of a dynasty draft. You're probably only going to get 2 more years at most out of him. His ADP is around 2.10 right now while Maclin is going in the beginning of the 4th round. Maclin has the potential to be a #1 fantasy WR in the next year or two and Wells has a ton of upside if he can ever stay healthy. I would do that trade in a heartbeat.

 

 

I meant Turner is a first round pick in redraft leagues, obviously not in dynasty leagues. It is my personal strategy to always play to win now. I don't put a TON of distinction on "dynasty" league in the offseason. I'd rather put my best team out there next season, and then if midway through the season I am floundering, then I can still move Michael Turner to a contender before the trade deadline. I guess it depends a lot on league dynamics, format, etc, to truly determine if I'd make this trade right now. Only the OP knows his league. Can you get similar value for Turner at the trade deadline or next offseason? I'm very low on Beanie Wells, which is my main hesitation here. I don't like going in to next season with a RB group of Jonathan Stewart, Beanie Wells, and Ryan Mathews. I think you have upside but also a lot of question marks there.

 

I guess it also depends what the original poster plans to do with pick 1.1. If I keep Turner, I'd go with AJ Green or Julio Jones, both of whom I think can produce right away. But if you trade Turner, then Mark Ingram at 1.1 could make sense. I don't think it's a bad trade, I just don't think it's a no brainer either.

[Riddlen 1]

I ended up doing it so I can officially start to cheer for turner to look slow and old so I can feel better about it. ended up being Maclin and Beanie and a 3rd for turner and a 5th