Some Buys, Sells, Holds

[madd futher mucker 36]

I'm posting these without comment (for now) and I'll be adding to them as I do my team reviews. I'm not yet willing to give you my reasons, but let's just say these are the guys I'd be looking to acquire or sell at the going market value in dynasty or at current ADP in re-draft.

 

RBs - Buys

DeAngelo Williams

Jonathan Stewart

Ray Rice

Willis McGahee

Felix Jones

Rashad Jennings

Delone Carter

Ryan Williams

 

RBs - Holds

Beanie Wells - as handcuff only.

Joseph Addai

Bernard Scott

 

RBs - Sells

Chris Johnson

Adrian Peterson

MJD

Knowshon Moreno

Donald Brown

 

WRs - Buys

Randall Cobb

Jordy Nelson

Steve Smith (Car)

Braylon Edwards

Mike X Williams

Jacoby Ford

Donny Avery

 

WRs - Sells

Malcom Floyd

Legedu Naanee

 

If you agree or disagree with any on this list, I'll be happy to debate on an individual basis.

[Cuse9 128]

It's been awhile MFM! Let's have at it on this topic!

 

Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson. You have both down as "sells".

 

Depending on the rest of your team, why would you want to sell either one. Both are legit #1's with no handcuff. They get all carries, be it third down, goal line....they don't need breathers. They can score from ten yards out or 80! What would be the reason in wanting to sell either. Now if it's for quality of quantity over owning a single stud I understand, but if it's based on projected performance....I want to hear what ya got!

 

I can see an arguement for every other player you have listed as to buying or selling, but not for Chris or Adrian.

[madd futher mucker 36]

It's been awhile MFM! Let's have at it on this topic!

 

Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson. You have both down as "sells".

 

Depending on the rest of your team, why would you want to sell either one. Both are legit #1's with no handcuff. They get all carries, be it third down, goal line....they don't need breathers. They can score from ten yards out or 80! What would be the reason in wanting to sell either. Now if it's for quality of quantity over owning a single stud I understand, but if it's based on projected performance....I want to hear what ya got!

 

I can see an arguement for every other player you have listed as to buying or selling, but not for Chris or Adrian.

 

Chris Johnson, Peterson, and Foster are 1 - 3 on most boards right now. I won't have either Johnson or Peterson quite as high on my re-draft projections, and I'd be selling both in dynasty (only for top value, of course) due mainly to the offensive and over-all franchise instability.

 

Re Chris Johnson: This is a speculative sell high. I'm betting Tennessee doesn't find a capable QB. If Locker gets on the field in September that would be very bad for Johnson. IMO Locker isn’t ready to play in the NFL. Add to the mix a new coaching staff and offensive scheme, and a possible Britt suspension. Defenses will have little to worry about from the Titans passing game. All of these issues have me downgrading the Titan offense including CJ2K.

 

Pretty much the same deal with ADP. There is a very good chance that Sidney Rice has taken his last snap as a Vike and it is possible that the Vikings will open the season with rookie Christian Ponder. Despite the fact that Rice was lost for most of last year, he is a vital deep and redzone threat. Percy Harvin is a great #2 underneath, but he's not a #1 on the outside. If Rice leaves and Ponder starts, it’s going to be a tough year for Peterson. The offensive line is anemic, and they could possibly also lose OT Ryan Cook to free agency. Because of all the uncertainty, I'm downgrading the Minnesota offense including Peterson.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

It's been awhile MFM! Let's have at it on this topic!

 

Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson. You have both down as "sells".

 

Depending on the rest of your team, why would you want to sell either one. Both are legit #1's with no handcuff. They get all carries, be it third down, goal line....they don't need breathers. They can score from ten yards out or 80! What would be the reason in wanting to sell either. Now if it's for quality of quantity over owning a single stud I understand, but if it's based on projected performance....I want to hear what ya got!

 

I can see an arguement for every other player you have listed as to buying or selling, but not for Chris or Adrian.

 

Agree with Cuse

 

but im betting his listing CJ and ADP as sells has to do with their respecitve QB situations as well as possibly holdout for CJ and mileage for ADP? And im sure he only trades them for the right deal like maybe now is time to move ADP for Ray Rice and something if it can be had?

 

I dont exactly agree. I dont think im in a rush to sell either of these guys.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Agree with Cuse

 

but im betting his listing CJ and ADP as sells has to do with their respecitve QB situations as well as possibly holdout for CJ and mileage for ADP? And im sure he only trades them for the right deal like maybe now is time to move ADP for Ray Rice and something if it can be had?

 

I dont exactly agree. I dont think im in a rush to sell either of these guys.

 

I'm mainly reflecting my thinking about their respective team offensive and franchise situations. For re-draft, I no longer feel that they are automatic top 5, and I've put a risk flag on both of them.

 

If I owned them in dynasty I'd be trading - and you are right, I wouldn't be in a rush to sell - I'd only do it for for top return.

 

By the way, nice work the last couple of weeks

[Cuse9 128]

I'm mainly reflecting my thinking about their respective team offensive and franchise situations. For re-draft, I no longer feel that they are automatic top 5, and I've put a risk flag on both of them.

 

If I owned them in dynasty I'd be trading - and you are right, I wouldn't be in a rush to sell - I'd only do it for for top return.

 

By the way, nice work the last couple of weeks

I'm not a huge fan of either, but if I had the fifth pick and either one was available I would have to take them!

[prancers 0]

Wow, I agree with pretty much every name on your list. If I was picking out some minor disagreements, they'd be:

 

1. Felix Jones- This will sound weird, but I always avoid RBs who have their weight start going up or down. Felix added weight to try to be more of an every down back which caused him to lose speed. I believe he said he's trying to lose weight now this offseason. It just seems like whenever RBs start this cycle, it never ends up well for them. I think he has solid value and if I could pick him up cheap or he fell in a draft, I'd take him, but he still seems to be valued highly. For example, in our startup he went a full round ahead of Deangelo Williams and ahead of guys like Drew Brees, Sam Bradford, Peyton Manning, Brandon Lloyd, etc. He has competition, there's the possibility of RBBC and Dallas is terrible running in the red zone, so he's a hold in my book at best.

 

2. Ray Rice- I think Rice is just a hold also. He's good but his value is already sky high (he went 2nd overall in our startup for example). Baltimore has some starting OL who are FAs, including Marshall Yanda who is a very good run blocker and Matt Birk at C is getting old. I also don't really trust Flacco long-term as I don't think he has "it." Rice deserves to be top 6, but he isn't undervalued right now.

[stonewall 647]

 

 

This is one of the things that I love about Madds posts....cutting edge. Sell on ADP, CJ, and MJD..... ......and I whole-heartedly agree, when their team/coaching/QB situation are considered against their ADP.

 

I am also seriously buying on Rashad, and hope his ADP stays low until after draft day. I am assuming that you suspect Stewart will be in Denver, with DWill running the show in Carolina? I am still wobbly on Felix in Dallas. He has that "it" potential comapred to his current ADP on a strong offensive team, but as I heard Nate Newton say the other day: "He is a great back, if he just didn't have that but on him..... (but he is too fragile to take the pounding and stay healthy.)" I am highly curious as to your McGahee buy also.....have a slant?

 

Also loving Jacoby Ford, but he is moving up in ADP. Steve Smith has a ridiculously low ADP right now, but he has been SO horrid recently.....I can still smell the stench in my nostrils. You buying on Mike Thomas again this year?

 

Keep it coming bro.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

 

 

This is one of the things that I love about Madds posts....cutting edge. Sell on ADP, CJ, and MJD..... ......and I whole-heartedly agree, when their team/coaching/QB situation are considered against their ADP.

 

I am also seriously buying on Rashad, and hope his ADP stays low until after draft day. I am assuming that you suspect Stewart will be in Denver, with DWill running the show in Carolina? I am still wobbly on Felix in Dallas. He has that "it" potential comapred to his current ADP on a strong offensive team, but as I heard Nate Newton say the other day: "He is a great back, if he just didn't have that but on him..... (but he is too fragile to take the pounding and stay healthy.)" I am highly curious as to your McGahee buy also.....have a slant?

 

Also loving Jacoby Ford, but he is moving up in ADP. Steve Smith has a ridiculously low ADP right now, but he has been SO horrid recently.....I can still smell the stench in my nostrils. You buying on Mike Thomas again this year?

 

Keep it coming bro.

 

i totally agree with selling MJD. too many concerns there.

 

but although i understand the reasoning regarding ADP and CJ, i don't happen to agree. CJ hasn't had great QB play over the past few years. I know Vince Young can open up a running game but still... not great. Johnson also had the worst statistical run blocking line last year and still produced. Peterson produced with T-Jack and more recently, a washed up Favre. Considering these guys have been models of health, are the bell cows for their teams, and still young, i see no reason to overthink owning them.

 

considering MFM has Rice and McGahee as buys, im going to guess he has McGahee latching on elsewhere and possibly starting? Rice already has a high ADP so for McGahee to be a "buy" in Baltimore, Rice wouldn't be reaching "buy" type numbers.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

 

 

By the way, nice work the last couple of weeks

 

thanks. I think I built a pretty nice WR group without killing myself at RB. And with the 1.02 pick in our draft, I think i'm set up nicely.

 

 

was a tough call to drop Jacoby Ford. However I think Amendola will be a more steady producer. His potential as a Wes Welker type under McDaniels intrigued me. Hopefully you can pick up Ford once the draft begins

[Cuse9 128]

I guess I just disagree with the reasoning on these two. Jake Locker, Christian Ponder. Are they that much worse than Vince Young, Tavaris Jackson, Kerry Collins? Peterson ran for 1700 yards with Jackson under center and no decent wr's. Everyone tried to stop him and nobody could. CJ ran for 2000 yards when all they did was run. Both have every team they play gameplan to stop them and nobody can. That's why stars are stars!

 

A more worthy sell candidate is Michael Turner. He's 29..the dreaded age where RB's hit the wall. Obviously he don't have the wear and tear that other backs at his age do, but none the less he's a guy that I would avoid on draft day or try and trade if I had him in a dynasty/keeper league!

 

Moreno is a tough one! All the skills in the world. Fox only bolsters his value. The question is will he bring anyone else into the picture? Even if they do I think Moreno has the talent to steal the lion's share of the carries and become a great fantasy back. The drawback is he has health concerns! The QB misery in Denver also sheds doubt on his potential. You have him as a sell, but I would hold. If you have him...hold on and see what happens, especially if he's your third back in a dynasty league. If you can get him at a good value on draft day...why not. Just pay attention the the circus that's always been Denver rb's!

 

Lastly, Legedu Nanee....sell? Who's buying?

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

 

 

Lastly, Legedu Nanee....sell? Who's buying?

 

Legedu's brother, Armedu?

[Cuse9 128]

Legedu's brother, Armedu?

It took me a second, but I got it!

[madd futher mucker 36]

 

Lastly, Legedu Nanee....sell? Who's buying?

 

What i meant, Cuse, is that you can safely drop him now in your dynasty league.

 

 

Some of the above is based on semi-informed speculation: Yes, I have McGahee going to a situation where he gets much more carries; ditto for McClain (who also should be a late round buy and for the same reason).

 

That gives Ray Rice about 3-4 more TDs based on goal line carries that were previously vultured.

[prancers 0]

I guess I just disagree with the reasoning on these two. Jake Locker, Christian Ponder. Are they that much worse than Vince Young, Tavaris Jackson, Kerry Collins? Peterson ran for 1700 yards with Jackson under center and no decent wr's. Everyone tried to stop him and nobody could. CJ ran for 2000 yards when all they did was run. Both have every team they play gameplan to stop them and nobody can. That's why stars are stars!

 

A more worthy sell candidate is Michael Turner. He's 29..the dreaded age where RB's hit the wall. Obviously he don't have the wear and tear that other backs at his age do, but none the less he's a guy that I would avoid on draft day or try and trade if I had him in a dynasty/keeper league!

 

Moreno is a tough one! All the skills in the world. Fox only bolsters his value. The question is will he bring anyone else into the picture? Even if they do I think Moreno has the talent to steal the lion's share of the carries and become a great fantasy back. The drawback is he has health concerns! The QB misery in Denver also sheds doubt on his potential. You have him as a sell, but I would hold. If you have him...hold on and see what happens, especially if he's your third back in a dynasty league. If you can get him at a good value on draft day...why not. Just pay attention the the circus that's always been Denver rb's!

 

Lastly, Legedu Nanee....sell? Who's buying?

 

Aside from Moreno being a former high draft pick, what makes you think he has "all the skills in the world?"

 

I haven't watched a ton of Broncos games, but I've never once watched Knowshon in the NFL and thought he looked super talented. Just the opposite in fact. He looks like just another guy. He's not very big, not very fast, doesn't make a lot of guys miss. I could be wrong, but talent-wise he seems to me more on the level of Fred Jackson/Tim Hightower than Jamaal Charles/Chris Johnson.

 

I agree with you on Turner. He seems like he's lost a step and it seems Atlanta wants to throw more. It's possible he stays productive for a while like Thomas Jones (another late-bloomer) did, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[Moonlight 0]

Hard to find anyone buying on Donald Brown either.

[Cuse9 128]

Aside from Moreno being a former high draft pick, what makes you think he has "all the skills in the world?"

 

I haven't watched a ton of Broncos games, but I've never once watched Knowshon in the NFL and thought he looked super talented. Just the opposite in fact. He looks like just another guy. He's not very big, not very fast, doesn't make a lot of guys miss. I could be wrong, but talent-wise he seems to me more on the level of Fred Jackson/Tim Hightower than Jamaal Charles/Chris Johnson.

 

I agree with you on Turner. He seems like he's lost a step and it seems Atlanta wants to throw more. It's possible he stays productive for a while like Thomas Jones (another late-bloomer) did, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Moreno isn't fast, that's his only flaw. Physically he has all the other tools. One of his best assests is making guys miss and then getting the extra yards after contact. Great vision and the guy hits a whole quick. He's built about the same as Jamaal Charles, so his size isn't great, but good enough.

 

Not saying he's a can't miss. We've seen tons of guys with great skills, never pan out. He is in a situation where he could flourish. DWill and Stew did excellent under Fox, no reason to think Moreno couldn't do the same?

[madd futher mucker 36]

Except for one thing, Cuse.

 

I'd say it is almost 100% that Moreno will be a complementarty back this year. Better than a 65% chance the lead back will be DeAngelo.

[Cuse9 128]

Except for one thing, Cuse. Moreno will be a complementarty back this year, IMO. Better than a 65% chance the lead back will be DeAngelo.

You're assuming!

[prancers 0]

Moreno isn't fast, that's his only flaw. Physically he has all the other tools. One of his best assests is making guys miss and then getting the extra yards after contact. Great vision and the guy hits a whole quick. He's built about the same as Jamaal Charles, so his size isn't great, but good enough.

 

Not saying he's a can't miss. We've seen tons of guys with great skills, never pan out. He is in a situation where he could flourish. DWill and Stew did excellent under Fox, no reason to think Moreno couldn't do the same?

 

Just my opinion, but both DWill and Stewart are more talented RBs than Moreno. Both run high 4.3/low 4.4, while Moreno was closer to 4.6. Both seem much tougher runners between the tackles. DWill seems to be more elusive and Stewart breaks more tackles. This may sound crazy to you, but talent-wise I'm not even sure I'd take Moreno over Mike Goodson.

 

I also don't like his situation nearly as much as you seem to. We'll see who ends up being correct on that in the next 2 weeks, but Fox came out just this week and said the team's #1 priority in FA is RB. Maybe it still works out for Moreno and he can be the Jamaal Charles to the FA's Thomas Jones, but it seems more likely that he ends up being the Chester Taylor to the FA's Matt Forte.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

one of the things i care least about in my RB is his 40 time.

 

that said, i don't like Moreno this year. Overall I think he is an average RB and I expect Fox to add another veteran. At which point we have another Carolina situation.. except Moreno isn't as talented as D-Will or Stewart

[Cuse9 128]

one of the things i care least about in my RB is his 40 time.

 

that said, i don't like Moreno this year. Overall I think he is an average RB and I expect Fox to add another veteran. At which point we have another Carolina situation.. except Moreno isn't as talented as D-Will or Stewart

I'll disagree on the talent issue anyday. However talent means nothing without the hardwork behind it. David Terrell was one of the most gifted wr's to come out of college in years. He never put his all into anything and now he's selling cell phones at a local mall! Moreno has tremendous talent. To compare his abilities to Mike Goodson is just silly. I'm not saying Moreno will be the next 2000 yard rusher, but he absolutely has a chance to do some great things if he decides to take football serious. I wouldn't be surprized to see him run for 1500 yards this year or fall to third string. If I had him though in a dynasty league, he's worth holding onto to see what happens.

 

Denver's roster consists of Moreno, Lance Ball, Correll Buckhalter, Jeremiah Johnson and LenDale White, so yeah....it should be a major concern in free agency! Injuries happen all to often so even if Moreno is the #1, there is a chance he gets hurt and then you have....nothing.

 

Again, I am a Broncos fan, but not a Moreno fan. I do think he has the ability though. As for a worthless Bronco, don't even get me started on Tim Tebow!!

[el_duderino 0]

I'm posting these without comment (for now) and I'll be adding to them as I do my team reviews. I'm not yet willing to give you my reasons, but let's just say these are the guys I'd be looking to acquire or sell at the going market value in dynasty or at current ADP in re-draft.

 

RBs - Buys

DeAngelo Williams

Jonathan Stewart

Ray Rice

Willis McGahee

Felix Jones

Rashad Jennings

Delone Carter

Ryan Williams

 

RBs - Holds

Beanie Wells - as handcuff only.

Joseph Addai

Bernard Scott

 

RBs - Sells

Chris Johnson

Adrian Peterson

MJD

Knowshon Moreno

Donald Brown

 

WRs - Buys

Randall Cobb

Jordy Nelson

Steve Smith (Car)

Braylon Edwards

Mike X Williams

Jacoby Ford

Donny Avery

 

WRs - Sells

Malcom Floyd

Legedu Naanee

 

If you agree or disagree with any on this list, I'll be happy to debate on an individual basis.

 

I'm with you on DeAngelo but I'm not buying J-Stew. I don't trust the situation in Carolina and he's had injury problems and I believe has lost some of his explosion. I'd rather take a flier on Goodsen in that offense than J-Stew as the front line back. Felix Jones - well I just don't see what everyone else does I guess. Felix is not a lead back...at least on his skills alone. I think you see good production out of him but I think he's more of a hold than a buy. Love the buy on Rashad Jennings. But, I don't think that means you sell MJD. MJD still is in line for 18-20 touches and from his comments his knee is ready to go. I don't know where you're seeing MJD drafted but in my mocks he falls to the end of the 1st consistently. Really like DeLone and Ryan WIlliams as upside picks. Mikel LeShoure is right there for me as well.

 

As for the GB WR situation....both Cobb and Jordy as Buys? I don't have a good read on Cobb so I can't really give an informed opinion. I think people are really looking past the old vet Driver. He'll be on the field and to expect Jordy to get the jump in production that I'm seeing is overly optimistic in my opinion. I think Jordy's current ADP is about right. Heard from Donny Avery on twitter that his 40 times are back to where they were pre-injury. I'll buy him too....I like the STL situation and can't wait to see who wins those jobs in camp. I'm guessing Avery, Clayton, Amendola in the slot, and DeNario taking a backseat. That's just a guess though, DeNario could easily win that job. THat will be a fun pre-season development to watch because someone will emerge big and it could be a real nice addition to a squad.

 

Big Mike. Buying. No question, even with lackluster QB play the guy can produce, and word is he's picked up a little speed and is in better shape from last year.

 

I'm not on board with Jacoby Ford. Everyone else in the FF universe is, but, for me there are far too many questions at WR in that offense to buy any of the Raiders. Probably a hold for me.

 

Malcom Floyd is a tough sell until we have some more clarity on who will be on the roster in SD. If they sign VJ and bring in a FA then Floyd is probably elsewhere....who knows what will happen there. The rookie gets a lot of talk these days...I still think Crayton will be in the mix.

 

And, the big names, AP and CJ2K. I'm with you completely. I'd rather take Charles than either of them (especially PPR) and would most likely trade out of the top 2 or 3 slots to avoid having to make that choice.

[giraldi02 470]

 

RBs - Buys

DeAngelo Williams

Jonathan Stewart

Ray Rice

Willis McGahee

Felix Jones

Rashad Jennings

Delone Carter

Ryan Williams

 

RBs - Holds

Beanie Wells - as handcuff only.

Joseph Addai

Bernard Scott

 

RBs - Sells

Chris Johnson

Adrian Peterson

MJD

Knowshon Moreno

Donald Brown

 

WRs - Buys

Randall Cobb

Jordy Nelson

Steve Smith (Car)

Braylon Edwards

Mike X Williams

Jacoby Ford

Donny Avery

 

WRs - Sells

Malcom Floyd

Legedu Naanee

 

 

I think Ray Rice is an outstanding option in redraft leagues. I figure to be drafting sixth in my main PPR league and am excited to have the option of he or McCoy. Id take him over CJIII for sure. AP too more than likely.

 

Rashad Jennings is going to see his ADP rise imho the closer we get to September 7th. I like him as a handcuff...but I also like Toby Gerhert as well. Thoughts on his value as the season progresses?

 

I agree on holding for Addai...but you need your finger on the trigger at all times with him.

 

I don't disagree about Bernard Scott...I just don't want anyone from the Cincinnati Bengals this season. What a mess.

 

Jordy Nelson is a potential steal late in the draft.

I like Jacoby Ford...but I'm going to say that DHB is THE wr to own in that offense this year.

 

As for Malcolm Floyd...I want to see where he ends up. I'd like him to stay in San Diego...but who knows?