Sure-Fire Drafting Formula?

[unloopme 4]

Hi folks, first post so be gentle. Real glad I found this place, love the projections cheat sheets very much.

Anyway, I'm in a 12 team PPR snake draft, and I was wondering if anybody had some practical techniques/formula they would stick to when drafting? In other words, pick 2 RB's first, then a WR or 2, another RB, then a QB. I know that you need to stay flexible depending on what's available...but there has to be a LITTLE method to the madness...no? What is a proven formula if there is one?

Thanks for any and all replies.

 

BTW: All TD's=6

QB, 2RB, RB/WR, 2WR, TE, K, D

[polecatt 404]

No real formula just draft the best available player. Don't get locked into picking a position until you get your main starters. Try and get one of these QBs: Vick,Brady,P.Manning,Rivers,Brees,Rodgers,Romo. Don't draft a defense or kicker until late in the draft. RBs will dominate the first round, especially the first part of it.

[unloopme 4]

Thanks, for the reply. I read/heard that since in my league TD passes are worth 6 that I should scoop up one of those top tier QB's you listed. Now my question is should I use my 1st pick on one of them? I figure if I can't draft one of the top 5 RB's it might be a good idea to grab Vick or Rodgers, then draft 2 RB, 2 WR, another RB...and go from there. Does this seem like a sound strategy?

[Fantasy Noob 10]

Funny but the only hardfast rule I was going to offer, "Don't draft a QB early" is completely negated by the fact that you get 6pnts for passing TD's. You need to get one of the top 6 guys and will have to spend a late 1st round or 2nd round pick on them.

 

With the flex spot I like to get 3 starting RB since this gives you a big positional advantage. I would probably try to go RB/QB/RB/ then just do value based draft position from here on in.

 

Do you know your fellow drafters at all? If not it will take a 3/4 rounds to determine who knows what and who is a rookie drafter. Also what spot are you drafting from? The ends I find somewhat more challenging in that their is such a long wait between picks.

 

This is actually a somewhat complex topic but one that is near and dear to my heart, if you could give us some info on what position you are drafting from and other drafters histroy it would help us tailor our responses to your league better. Otherwise you get some very generic and vanilla advice.

[unloopme 4]

Well, this is the second year for all of us in this league. I've even gone over last years draft results and didn't see anything too blatant of a reach that made me ask myself, "wtf was he thinking." We all pretty much know each other personally, and the league was actually pretty competitive all year. Had just a couple tight games gone my way...who knows, maybe a 'ship.

 

Unfortunately, draft order is random and we won't know until an hour before. On the bright side, I did find this site and forum! I think that with the projections and rankings tailored to my ACTUAL league scoring I'll have an edge this year...unless someone in my league is poking around in here too of course.

 

I like the idea of going RB/QB/RB...thanks, and I'm DEFINITELY going RB in that Flex. Hopefully my position will allow me to do this, but if I end up on the tail and QB's are flying off the board I may have to adjust. Our draft is 8/28 so I'll post my results here to get some feedback.

Anyway, thanks to everyone for the advice...and I got 9 days 'til draft day so feel free to chime in.

[badmonkey 0]

Your draft position will dictate what you do in the draft for sure. If not in the top 5 ( which is a sure fire RB) I would draft best available until about the 6th rd. If you are towards the tail end of either side of the draft try to predict what the players after you are likely to scoop up before it gets back to you. This is often overlooked by drafters

[Fantasy Noob 10]

Badmonkey's point is a big one especially in the middle of the rounds so you know when to jump on TE and decide between WR/RB of equivelant ranks.

 

Another good one, do NOT get caught up in position runs at QB and TE. Especially QB, it will suck if you dont get a top 6 QB in your format but if you don't, make them pay by beefing up your RB/WR corp. If you continue the run at a position you reward them by giving up value at that draft position. There are quite a few QB's going late that have top 10 potential: BigBen, Eli, Freeman. If you can get one of these guys and get a clear advantage at RB/Flex then even Vick going off against your team won't hurt as much. Always try to anticipate and lead a run on a position, never follow it.

 

Another entirely viable strategy would be RB/WR/RB/RB best available QB/RB in the 5th. This would give you a clear position advantage at RB/Flex and an elite WR to anchor your WR corp along with an upside QB later. I have done this in numerous leagues this year and been very pleased with my squads. I like this as there are quite a few decent #2WR available in the 8th and later rounds which I round out my WR corp with since I do have that one stud WR to anchor the position. You might give up points at TE and QB but you win at 4 other spots RB,RB,Flex,WR or atleast that is my theory this year.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Well, this is the second year for all of us in this league. I've even gone over last years draft results and didn't see anything too blatant of a reach that made me ask myself, "wtf was he thinking." We all pretty much know each other personally, and the league was actually pretty competitive all year. Had just a couple tight games gone my way...who knows, maybe a 'ship.

 

Unfortunately, draft order is random and we won't know until an hour before. On the bright side, I did find this site and forum! I think that with the projections and rankings tailored to my ACTUAL league scoring I'll have an edge this year...unless someone in my league is poking around in here too of course.

 

I like the idea of going RB/QB/RB...thanks, and I'm DEFINITELY going RB in that Flex. Hopefully my position will allow me to do this, but if I end up on the tail and QB's are flying off the board I may have to adjust. Our draft is 8/28 so I'll post my results here to get some feedback.

Anyway, thanks to everyone for the advice...and I got 9 days 'til draft day so feel free to chime in.

If qbs are flying off the board before your pick take advantage and pick the elite player they let slip by. One year we had 6 qb go before the end of the second round. The result was my buddy drafted apmfirst and got wayne and calvin because everyone panicked. Zag when everyone zigs, of course value is key.

[unloopme 4]

Awesome advice guys...really, thank you. I'm feeling incredibly confident going into this draft armed with all the knowledge. I'm even going to make a separate cheat sheet just for your comments and suggestions. This site rocks!

[unloopme 4]

Got a few more questions

Now, I've input my league scoring on the site and found that the player "projections" are obviously a little different than standard scoring. My plan was to draft in order of these projections, as opposed to regular player rankings...is this a good strategy? Also, how accurate have you guys found these "projections" to be? Maybe someone can suggest another good free site that does custom projections? If it's against the rules to post any links maybe you can pm them to me. Thanks for the input

[unloopme 4]

Interesting development! Seems some folks wanted draft position well in advance, and well...I have the 3rd pick in our snake.

[TxTech9 5]

There is absolutely no reason to take a DEF and K any earlier than the last two rounds

[Longus 2]

Interesting development! Seems some folks wanted draft position well in advance, and well...I have the 3rd pick in our snake.

 

 

3rd pick in PPR?

 

grab a Stud RB. one who catches alot of passes. Ray Rice is too hard to pass up especially with foster and peterson goins first and second.

[unloopme 4]

1st pick is no doubt a RB, but I've been mock drafting like crazy and it always seems if I don't get a top 5 QB with the 2nd or 3rd pick I'm stuck with 7, 8, or 9 QB...which in my 6pt TD pass league is not good. I'm thinking I HAVE to draft RB,WR,QB or RB,QB,WR or RB,QB,RB depending on what's happening to ensure I have a top tier QB, hopefully Rodgers or Rivers.

-What I really need advice with is, should I draft by rankings or "custom" point projections?

[Fantasy Noob 10]

By "custom" do you mean your own rankings or ones given to you by a magazine? We are all FF nuts so we will all ask you why you havent actually done your own rankings and created player tiers instead of relying on magazine articles. The articles and rankings are good info more for anticipating of Average Draft Value/Position since most people go by them.

 

If by custom you mean tailored to your specific scoring standard, then yes you should definitely be using a cheat sheet customized to your leagues scoring format. PPR vs non ppr is how most magazines group them if your scoring deviates from these significantly and 6pnts for passing TD's is a fairly significant deviation you should be making your own cheat sheets.

 

Something to keep in mind if you use the online/draft engine rankings in an online draft this can and will be used against you by smart/skilled drafters.

[unloopme 4]

If by custom you mean tailored to your specific scoring standard, then yes you should definitely be using a cheat sheet customized to your leagues scoring format. PPR vs non ppr is how most magazines group them if your scoring deviates from these significantly and 6pnts for passing TD's is a fairly significant deviation you should be making your own cheat sheets.

 

Something to keep in mind if you use the online/draft engine rankings in an online draft this can and will be used against you by smart/skilled drafters.

Yup, that's what I meant. There's a few websites, including this one, where I input my league scoring and it spits out point projections. I figured I could combine a few of these online generated lists into my own cheat sheets.

 

Something to keep in mind if you use the online/draft engine rankings in an online draft this can and will be used against you by smart/skilled drafters.

Wow, I don't know if anyone in our league can be categorized as a "skilled" drafter, but I'm really interested to know what you mean by this. Can you please elaborate a little?

Thanks

[unloopme 4]

Well, tonight is my draft. I got the 3rd pick, and I'm targeting R.Rice with it.

Anybody got any last minute advice, tips, sleepers...etc? Thanks

[effective 0]

My advice after having my major drafts yesterday. Grab good RB's and grab them early. It got extremely thin really fast in my drafts.

 

RRice is a good pick at 3 imo (unless for some reason AP drops to 3). I'd probably go RB again in the 2nd if there is still a RB available with little competition.

[unloopme 4]

Got no love in my 'rate my team' thread, so maybe folks will reply here.

 

QB- J.Freeman

RB- R.Rice

RB- M.Forte

FLX- S.Greene

WR- V.Jackson

WR- D.Bowe

TE- M.Lewis

DF- Chargers

K- B.Cundiff

Bench:

QB- K.Orton

RB- M.Lynch, D.Sproles, D.Murray

WR- L.Evans, L.Moore, S.Breaston

[Fantasy Noob 10]

Love that team you did great! Lots of RB depth and good depth too. I have several teams with very similar rosters.

 

I would have liked to see another upside QB behind Freeman but Orton is very under rated. I don't like your TE as I don't like to chase TD's and he actually did not get an extreme reception total last year, but with MSW gone they have almost no one else to throw too. Keep an eye on WW for TE's every year someone always dumps a top 6 guy due to byes for some reason, and who knows Lewis could repeat too.

 

V.Jax/Bowe could be a tough combo for ppr format, they are both homerun threats with fewer receptions. I would consider using Breastons and maybed Evans spots to churn for the WR darling of the week. Lance Moore if he emerges like many think he will this year will really shore up your WR corp.

 

I am high on Lynch and Sproles this year, Lynch is going to start out slow Seattle's O-line is a mess, definitely keep him stashed he is going to be a gold mine in the second half of the season.

 

 

Wow, I don't know if anyone in our league can be categorized as a "skilled" drafter, but I'm really interested to know what you mean by this. Can you please elaborate a little?

Thanks

Sorry was a little vague on this but it is fairly complex and abstract to describe, it would be easier to "show it". Essentially if you are picking at 4/9 or closer to the turns you want to look at the drafting tendencies of the players behind you. Are they filling their rosters first? Are they drafting upside guys that are beyond what the top200 screen/top100RB/top100WR is showing? (Usually the screen shows about 10-20players depending on the type size) The ideal situation is several teams that is filling their roster and going off a single top200 screen and there are alot of drafters that do this and you should be able to peg them by the 5th round fairly easily. If that is the case you can tell if you can let your sleeper RB (for me it was Lynch/F.Jackson) slide till your next pick and fill with last/best QB/TE in a tier.

 

The benefit of this is for a value drafter you increase the value of every 2nd pick and if your lucky and a player slips to you on the front end, you increase the value of both picks for those 2 rounds. It is not always going to work as people are hard to predict, doing a similar strategy or figured your strategy out. But it is hard to see what you are doing until the 7th round so you should get some real value from the middle rounds and by then you will be switching your strategy up again based on roster requirements, depth, sleepers, etc.

[unloopme 4]

Love that team you did great! Lots of RB depth and good depth too. I have several teams with very similar rosters.

Wow, thanks man! I felt pretty good about it, but getting confirmation from a vet is a good feeling. I followed your advice and went RB/WR/RB(I think it's a great strategy), then Bowe fell to me in the 4th which I didn't expect so I grabbed him, then S.Greene, and I was feeling pretty good.

 

I would have liked to see another upside QB behind Freeman but Orton is very under rated. I don't like your TE as I don't like to chase TD's and he actually did not get an extreme reception total last year, but with MSW gone they have almost no one else to throw too. Keep an eye on WW for TE's every year someone always dumps a top 6 guy due to byes for some reason, and who knows Lewis could repeat too.

I think Orton is under rated too. Some guys grabbed the young QB's while I was drafting depth I guess, so that's how he became my 2QB.

 

V.Jax/Bowe could be a tough combo for ppr format, they are both homerun threats with fewer receptions. I would consider using Breastons and maybed Evans spots to churn for the WR darling of the week. Lance Moore if he emerges like many think he will this year will really shore up your WR corp.

 

I am high on Lynch and Sproles this year, Lynch is going to start out slow Seattle's O-line is a mess, definitely keep him stashed he is going to be a gold mine in the second half of the season.

I see what you mean about V.Jax and Bowe, but I have a good feeling about V.Jax. I was drafting according to the cheat sheets I made with my custom league scoring so I tried not to deviate and Bowe was just sitting there looking for a home.

 

Sorry was a little vague on this but it is fairly complex and abstract to describe, it would be easier to "show it". Essentially if you are picking at 4/9 or closer to the turns you want to look at the drafting tendencies of the players behind you. Are they filling their rosters first? Are they drafting upside guys that are beyond what the top200 screen/top100RB/top100WR is showing? (Usually the screen shows about 10-20players depending on the type size) The ideal situation is several teams that is filling their roster and going off a single top200 screen and there are alot of drafters that do this and you should be able to peg them by the 5th round fairly easily. If that is the case you can tell if you can let your sleeper RB (for me it was Lynch/F.Jackson) slide till your next pick and fill with last/best QB/TE in a tier.

 

The benefit of this is for a value drafter you increase the value of every 2nd pick and if your lucky and a player slips to you on the front end, you increase the value of both picks for those 2 rounds. It is not always going to work as people are hard to predict, doing a similar strategy or figured your strategy out. But it is hard to see what you are doing until the 7th round so you should get some real value from the middle rounds and by then you will be switching your strategy up again based on roster requirements, depth, sleepers, etc.

That is some experienced drafter stuff right there! I do follow you though. I did notice most guys stuck to the top 200 available and didn't really get too deep. I'm going to add this to my 'drafting techniques' doc I'm working on for future reference...great advice.

I appreciate all your help, and I'm real grateful you decide to drop the knowledge on me.

I hope your right about ...that would be SWEET!!!